Make your Political Predictions for 2010

[Soul Crusher]

1.  UE will go up to about 11.5 starting in February 2010.

2.  The GOP will take the House and pick up many seats in the Senate.

3.  Cap & Trade dies.

4.  Amnesty for illegals dies.

5.  Palin gets a talk show or heads the Tea Party movement.

6.  Romney moves into obscurity as MA care proves an even worse disaster. 

7.  Terrorist attack at an airport.

8.  Oil goes to $4 a gallon by end of the year. 

9.  Obama slides even more in the polls.

[Hedgehog]

Seems a little like a wish list that one 386 .

My prediction is that UE will start drop in USA. But that it will lag almost a year behind in Europe.

Unfortunately.

[240 is Back]

1.  UE peaks at 11.5 or 12 in fall, then slides back

2.  The GOP will *almost* win house but will do very well in seante pickups.

3.  Cap & Trade passes, unfortunately.  I can't bet against obama + rest of world versus tea party.

4.  I think they decide not to push for Amnesty for illegals until 2011.

5.  Palin gets a talk show but Tea Party is smart enough to choose a more eletable candidate for 2012.  She's third in their ranks, but others like Newt and Thune take the helm.  

6.  Mitt tries like hell to coddle up to the Tea baggers as well, chanigng his ever-evolving set of beliefs.  Rudy stays quiet.

7.  No major attacks.  They got people scared for another year.

8.  *Gas* peaks at $3.25 as the economy cannot handle another spike that high.

9.  Obama slides even more in the polls to just over 40% but is back at 54% by Christmas 2010.

10.  Story of the year?  Tea Party gets a bit stronger but many of the anti-obama types will lose the wind in their sails, as it's hard to keep the 2009 intensity up for 3+ years.  Dems will rebound this year in popularity if economy does, but will lose share of congress.  ANY kind of terror attack and Obama's number spike to 70% overnight (remember Bush's spike after 911).  World will keep on pushing for unity, we'll keep fighting.  China will ensure dollar recovers a bit since we're pegged.  The sky won't fall this year

[Skip8282]

1.  Healthcare bill passes
2.  GOP may take a good number of seats, but I don't think enough.
3.  Cap & Trade will be renamed and repackaged and they will attempt to sell it again.
4.  Economy begins to recover (Sorry, I have to hope for this).
5.  Terrorists will continue to try and kill us and may succeed.  When this happens, 240 will somehow bring Bush into the discussion, and SAMSON123 will insist that it was "obviously" due to the NWO.

[Soul Crusher]

Seems a little like a wish list that one 386 .

My prediction is that UE will start drop in USA. But that it will lag almost a year behind in Europe.

Unfortunately.

Why?  Who is going to hire anyone?  

Hedge you are not a business person.  To a tee, every client, business person I know, is either downsizing, laying off, and will not hire anyone until the health care bill & crap & tax is scrapped.  I'm not be ing political, I'm telling you what my clients tell me.  

One of my accountant clients told me yesterday that next year he is laying off 10 of his employees and just going to work for himself and for a few of his clients since the tax increases, unemployment taxes, headaches, are no longer worth it.  

That story is going on millions of places across this country.    

[240 is Back]

hey, i was challenged not to mention the former prez for 2 weeks, I'm trying here lol

[240 is Back]

UE% will HAVE to drop by definition - these folks won't be counted anymore.  Their 6 months of free pay will run out.

official # may drop, but real UE will rise.

[Soul Crusher]

UE% will HAVE to drop by definition - these folks won't be counted anymore.  Their 6 months of free pay will run out.

official # may drop, but real UE will rise.

Serious 240 - who is going to hire anyone and for what reason? 

[Soul Crusher]

hey, i was challenged not to mention the former prez for 2 weeks, I'm trying here lol

240 - at what point will you stop bringing up Bush? 

As far as predictions go, I also think that either Pelosi is forced to step down or there will be many defections from the Blue Dogs if they try amnesty for illegals. 

[Hedgehog]

The first process of the turn around is already in process over here - the resizing of businesses. And investments are once again soaring. 2009 was the best year in Stockholm stock exchange history.
Stuff like this typically happen at the start of an economic recovery or boom.
Problem is that it's the poor people that has to pay an enormous price for the frivolities of Wall Street.

The working class up in the hills of West Va.
They have to bail out these scumbags. And in return they get fired.

[240 is Back]

"Serious 240 - who is going to hire anyone and for what reason? "

The stim $ will continue being released.  I remember Pawlenty and Jindal, among others, holding nice press conferences announcing how many tens thousands of local jobs were being created with the Obama money.  Jindal called it his "Jobs Jobs Jobs!" creation. 

Yes, it's handouts.   But it will lead to these people working, paying taxes, and spending the $ at walmart, paying their rent, buy parakeets, buying a new Ford, etc.

This money will cause walmart to hire more people, landlords to have $ to spend, PetSmart to open new stores, Ford to hire more people, etc.

This spending will rise the GDP.

Or, look at it this way... you give a broke man $28k a year to spend.  He's not going to mattress it.  He's going to put (at least) $26k of it right back into the economy by spending the cash.  this creates new jobs.  Sure, it's akin to giving a blood transfusion to a man instead of fixing the gaping wound on his foot.  But for the sake of discussion, it will cause numbers to improve temporarily.  (Now as to the viability and sustainability of a system printing $ to feed itself - that's a whole 'nother thread!)

[Soul Crusher]

Unreal - You are still shilling for that wasteful garbage even after it has proved to be a complete disaster. 

[240 is Back]

'Unreal - You are still shilling for that wasteful garbage even after it has proved to be a complete disaster.  "

 
I'm not shilling at all, dude.  I'm not defending it.  I made it very clear it's like giving a transfusion to a guy instead of fixing the cut.

I pointed out it will raise the numbers and will raise the gdp.  It's 9 times more $ (%wise) than the weimar guys printed - we're royally fuct in that manner.  beck opened my eyes to that.

However, for the sake of 2010 (YOUR thread title), I think the stim $ being released will lead to increased spending, which will create jobs in service and some goods industries.

if you want to argue that a million people with $28k to spend won't stimulate one red cent of tax revenue or create a single walmart job when they dump a third of their check at the store, you do that.

Long-run, it screws us.  Short term (2010), it will lead to rise in overall spending.

come on man, I pointed out short term GDP increases.  I'm not shilling for everyone.  Shit, what the fucc is up with attacking me for defending obama when I'm not doing it here?

[Soul Crusher]

Yes, it's handouts.   But it will lead to these people working, paying taxes, and spending the $ at walmart, paying their rent, buy parakeets, buying a new Ford, etc.

This money will cause walmart to hire more people, landlords to have $ to spend, PetSmart to open new stores, Ford to hire more people, etc.

________________________ ________________________ ________________________ _________--

Has any of that happened at all? 

No. 

[240 is Back]

"Has any of that happened at all? 
No.  "


You're saying NOT A SINGLE JOB HAS BEEN CREATED FROM THE STIM BILL?
You are contradicting Jindal and Pawlenty.

You're saying NOT A SINGLE CENT OF THE MONEY HAS BEEN SPENT?
You're contradicting simple economics.

Dude, step back a second - I used to defend the stim bill.  now I see a much smaller release to workers - and not the fuccin banks - might have been a better idea.  I'm coming around for it.

Please stop accusing me of defending it.  I'm not.  And I'm about tired of being called an obama kneepadder when I've been very sharp with attacks recently, and i've disagreed with 80% of his positions all along.

[240 is Back]

Maybe we lost 4 mil jobs and he created 250k jobs.

It was a huge net loss.  BUt statements like "Not a single job has been created" when jndal is holding parties bragging about jobs created by the stim bill money.

[Soul Crusher]

Maybe we lost 4 mil jobs and he created 250k jobs.

It was a huge net loss.  BUt statements like "Not a single job has been created" when jndal is holding parties bragging about jobs created by the stim bill money.

These are not permanent jobs based on free market demand by consumers for a particular product or service.  

These jobs are mostly temp jobs that are doing make work crap that will last so long as the stim money is there.  Its a complete waste since it debt financed.  

Just do the math fool.  It would have been cheaper to give every taxpayer a chack for 50k than the trash your hero shimmied through.  

Celente has been right on.  Is he wrong?

[240 is Back]

"fool"?
Dude, I'm defending my statement, point by point and you want to call me names?

Of course they're not premanent gains.  I said we're fuct long-term for it.  I'm well aware they're temp jobs.  I'm not defending it. 

I'm pointing out that as a result of the 2010 stim money, the 2010 GDP will see a rise.

If you disagree with this, please break down the economics of it.  Do you believe that these hundreds of thousands of ppl given termporary govt jobs won't spend a penny of their paychecks?

I think you want to have a debate on the whole bill and its effects for the next 40 years - an excellent topic.  This thread is called "Political predictions 2010".  And I believe that in 2010, GDP will rise when these people with temporary jobs spend the $ at walmart.

if you want to continue calling me names, go for it, but I'm not going to continue wasting time.  If you want to have a discussion on the long-term effects of this bill, go for it.  I'll agree with you on most point.

If you'd like to get this thread back on track and talk about the 2010 happenings, I'm cool with that too.

[Soul Crusher]

Calm down 240 -  GDP rising as a result of govt debt financing is not something to be happy about.  all it means is that we will have future inflation and or tax hikes at the expense of future generations. 

And BTW - this monstrosity is not doing what it was supposed to do.  Its doing the opposite.  The stim bill is destroying job creation, not helping it. 

By the govt having to borrow so much to finance this garbage bill, small business and private sector businesses now have a harder time getting financing since all fo the money is being used up in the public sector to keep that circus going. 

Also, people are not getting any benefit from this unless you work for the govt and are in a job that probably should have been downsized or cut in the first place to adapt to economic realities.   

 

[Soul Crusher]

A year later - who was right - Schiff or Obama?

This mess was supposed to keep UE to 8% REMEMBER?   

[Hedgehog]

Celente has been right on.  Is he wrong?

Celente claimed at the start of 2009 that the stock markets would continue to drop.

They didn't.

They have been soaring.

Several major companies have been through the worst part and re-structured. Now they are set for the rebound.

So yes, Celente is wrong.

[Soul Crusher]

Celente claimed at the start of 2009 that the stock markets would continue to drop.

They didn't.

They have been soaring.

Several major companies have been through the worst part and re-structured. Now they are set for the rebound.

So yes, Celente is wrong.

Go read businessinsider.com. 

The only reason the stock market went up is due to the federal govt printing trillions of dollars and giving it to the banks.   Its not based on companies making more earnings or an improvement in the economy. 

[BM OUT]

1.  UE peaks at 11.5 or 12 in fall, then slides back

2.  The GOP will *almost* win house but will do very well in seante pickups.

3.  Cap & Trade passes, unfortunately.  I can't bet against obama + rest of world versus tea party.

4.  I think they decide not to push for Amnesty for illegals until 2011.

5.  Palin gets a talk show but Tea Party is smart enough to choose a more eletable candidate for 2012.  She's third in their ranks, but others like Newt and Thune take the helm.  

6.  Mitt tries like hell to coddle up to the Tea baggers as well, chanigng his ever-evolving set of beliefs.  Rudy stays quiet.

7.  No major attacks.  They got people scared for another year.

8.  *Gas* peaks at $3.25 as the economy cannot handle another spike that high.

9.  Obama slides even more in the polls to just over 40% but is back at 54% by Christmas 2010.

10.  Story of the year?  Tea Party gets a bit stronger but many of the anti-obama types will lose the wind in their sails, as it's hard to keep the 2009 intensity up for 3+ years.  Dems will rebound this year in popularity if economy does, but will lose share of congress.  ANY kind of terror attack and Obama's number spike to 70% overnight (remember Bush's spike after 911).  World will keep on pushing for unity, we'll keep fighting.  China will ensure dollar recovers a bit since we're pegged.  The sky won't fall this year

I actually agree with almost all that except the attack.If America is attacked people will blame democrats and ESPECIALLY Obama for being weak on terror and defense.Dems are ALWAYS seen as weak.

I also think UE will remain at or about at ten.Obama will not ever regain his popularity.The magic is gone,hes looking old and beat,even his speeches have lost luster.

[MCWAY]

1.  UE will go up to about 11.5 starting in February 2010.

2.  The GOP will take the House and pick up many seats in the Senate.

3.  Cap & Trade dies.

4.  Amnesty for illegals dies.

5.  Palin gets a talk show or heads the Tea Party movement.

6.  Romney moves into obscurity as MA care proves an even worse disaster.  

7.  Terrorist attack at an airport.

8.  Oil goes to $4 a gallon by end of the year.  

9.  Obama slides even more in the polls.

 To me, unemployment only dropped slightly, because of the Christmas holidays, where temporary workers normally get hired. By the end of the month, it may go back to 10.2%.

I actually thought to myself that unemployment would reach about that level 11.5%, or perhaps 12%, but by June 2010.

If either of those scenarios occur, the Democrats are as good as DEAD in the midterms.

[Eyeball Chambers]

My predictions.... Hmmmmm...

Dirt bags will be voted out of office, other douche bags will be put into office.