Reid Wilson: On The Trail
How To Lose A Guy In 75 Days
http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/08/how_to_lose_a_g.php________________________
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Two years after his coattails helped sweep two dozen Democrats into office, President Obama is proving more a boon to Republicans than to Democrats during the midterm elections. His poll numbers are so morose that Democrats are planning ways to avoid his shadow, while Republicans plot strategies aimed at tying Obama to every incumbent member of Congress they can.
The advice from Democratic consultants and strategists is almost unanimous: Run away from the president, and fast. A prominent Democratic pollster is circulating a survey that shows George W. Bush is 6 points more popular than President Obama in "Frontline" districts -- seats held by Democrats that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee sees as most vulnerable to Republican takeover. That Bush is more popular than Obama in Democratic-held seats is cause for outright fear.But disassociating oneself from an incumbent president is never easy, and Democrats have to walk a narrow line. Based on conversations with more than a dozen Democratic political operatives, here's some advice for candidates looking to chart their own course, one that will send them back to the 112th Congress:
• Walk, Don't Run
: "He is a walking radioactive disaster," one senior Democratic operative said of the president. But any effort to seriously distance oneself from Obama is dangerous for an incumbent; go too hard against the president and voters think the candidate is faking it.
"People know that a Democratic congressman will agree with a Democratic president more often than not, so the worst thing a candidate can do is manufacture differences with the president," said Phil Singer, a party strategist and former top aide to Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential campaign. "Voters can spot a fake right away."
What's more, virtually every Democratic strategist agreed, if the president of the United States shows up in a candidate's home state, the candidate should show up too. Dodging Obama by claiming a scheduling conflict only breeds more stories about how much of a drag he is, and about how desperate Democrats are to avoid him.
• Use Him Where It Makes Sense: Obama may not be the electoral draw he once was, but that's not to say he's as poisonous as Bush was during his final term. There are some endangered Dems in some very blue states this year, and those incumbents -- like Sens. Patty Murray and Barbara Boxer -- can use the fundraising help to ward off wealthy GOP challengers. Obama is popular enough in Washington state and California that he's a political draw, too.
And Obama is still beloved among those Democrats willing to open up their checkbooks, as his multi-day campaign swing this week attests. There are plenty of members of Congress who don't want to appear alongside Obama, but they'd sure love it if the DCCC were to fully fund independent expenditure operations on their behalves. Keeping Obama with the money crowd, and showing up when he holds a fundraiser that will directly benefit a candidate, is the best way to use his limited time between now and Election Day.
"If he comes into the district, you have to talk about what's going on in Washington. That's never going to be good for incumbents or even challengers who are Democrats," said a Democratic campaign manager. "But if he's coming in to raise you $500,000 that you can then use to drop an anvil on your opponent's head, it's worth it, in my opinion. The ads comparing you to him are coming no matter what, so you might as well get the money."
• Tell Your Story: A race featuring an incumbent is usually more focused on the incumbent than the challenger (though, as Harry Reid has shown, that's not always the case). Democrats have to capitalize on issues that can work for them. Nearly two dozen Democrats are already up with their first ads, the bulk of them positive spots seeking to frame their sponsors as independent of D.C. and committed to helping their state and district.
The early barrage is surprising, but it's demonstrative of the cash advantage Democrats have, and it's advice that every consultant around the country is giving their clients. "They've got to get their own narrative out the door. We're telling as many of them as possible to go up as quickly as possible," said one senior party strategist.
Democrats are using their money early in order to define themselves, before their opponents get a chance to do so. By running the early ads, Democrats get a chance to control the debate -- and, by extension, control how voters view the incumbent's relationship with the president.
"Where candidates get in trouble is when they fail to own their issues and show voters that they are on their side by what they have been trying to accomplish in the last two years," said John Anzalone, a top Democratic pollster who worked on Obama's survey team in 2008 and who doesn't believe incumbents can effectively run away from Obama. "You can control what shows your independence, but don't think that the umbilical cord can ever be totally broken."
• Tell The Other Guy's Story: Conversely, the money that can help define Democrats is also going to be used to define Republicans -- in spades. In Senate races this year, incumbents are already blasting their challengers as out of touch or out of the mainstream. Now, House candidates and the DCCC will get into the act as well.
"This is a 'rip your opponent's face off' election for us," said one Democratic campaign manager. "It's clear from polling that Americans don't like the policies that got us into this mess and they do not blame Obama for what started it. They blame him for not doing more about it, which they have every right to do. That means we have to make the other choice unbearable. You need money to do that."
Democrats have the money; the DCCC has about twice the cash on hand of the National Republican Congressional Committee, and the party is already investing in state and local affiliates. The DCCC's early ad reservation was much bigger than the NRCC's initial buy, announced -- but not yet made -- this week. If they use that money edge not only to make the election a choice, but to make it a choice in which the Republican is an unacceptable option, Democrats will save seats.
• All Politics Is Local: There's a reason DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen wears two leadership hats. As assistant to the Speaker, Van Hollen has a separate office dedicated to freshman and sophomore members -- those first elected in the 2006 and 2008 waves and, therefore, most vulnerable to defeat. Those newer members don't have the roots in their districts that entrenched incumbents do, meaning voters know them less as individuals and more as representatives of their party.
Democratic strategists are urging their candidates to talk up local issues and emphasize their work for the districts. Van Hollen's staff keeps reams of information about individual members' press outreach, town hall meetings and constituent services. Establishing a connection to one's constituents is a better insulation from a wave election than anything else.
The more nationalized the election is, the more it helps Republicans. That's why Democrats have gnashed their teeth so much over the proposed mosque near Ground Zero and Obama's comments in support of allowing it to proceed. "At a time when people are freaking out about the direction of the country, about the economy, about government spending, he weighs into this issue -- forcing them, and every Dem candidate, to explain their position on the mosque instead of talking about the economy," bemoaned one prominent Democrat.
Democrats who avoid being sucked into a national debate will have more success than those who get knocked off message by what the Beltway media wants to discuss that day, whether it's Shirley Sherrod, the mosque or whatever else pops up next. Then again, with Reps. Charles Rangel and Maxine Waters facing ethics trials, that's going to give the GOP ample opportunity to take the race national.
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