1. GSP has to put on a show in front of all HIS Canadien fans. The pressure is very much on him in this fight, NOT KOZ. Pressure to shut Koscheck up in front of his crowd must be HUGE.
2. Koz, in his first fight with GSP, wasn't nearly as skilled as he is today, especially in terms of striking. Today, he's a much more aggressive fighter. Better striking etc. Look at his striking against Daley.. and then again against Rumble. His striking was REALLY good then. Much better than when he first fought GSP.
3. NERVES. In the first match, I imagine Koscheck's nerves to be completely a wreck, as it was his first title shot with none other than GSP. Nerves woulda played a huge part of it. This second fight, it'll be "been there, dune that" and I don't think Kos will be as nervous.
4. GSP is feeling pressure to finish fights. This disrupts his flow and how he fights immensely. He hasn't ever been a finisher. Trying to do so now will only hamper his ability to win this fight.
Just a few reasons why Kos is winning this weekend.