T-72: On the Road to Obsolescence
Forecast International ^ | 12/16/2010 | D. Lockwood
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T-72: On the Road to Obsolescence ⋅
NEWTOWN, Conn. - New production of the T-72 main battle tank in the Russian Federation remains dormant. The Rosoboronexport organization continues to offer the remaining Russian T-72 tank inventory for export. All new T-72 production now involves only one licensed-production line. With the completion of the Iranian licensed-production programs, we expect no new T-72 production.
The T-72 enjoys wide distribution on the international market, with at least 36 nations currently maintaining various versions of the tank in their inventories. The modernization and retrofit packages available will ensure continued use of the T-72 throughout the next decade. The center of gravity for the T-72 program has clearly shifted to the development of various modernization and retrofit packages, many of which rationalize the T-72 with NATO MBT requirements.
However, T-72 modernization and retrofit programs will soon reach the point of diminishing returns, as they add sufficient cost to the bargain-basement T-72 to place it in direct competition with high-end MBT designs such as the Leopard 2 and M1A1 Abrams. At some point, the T-72 will clearly lose any advantage on the international market.
Since 1990, a number of modern main battle tanks have faced the acid test of combat; many more have yet to fire a shot in anger. When we evaluate a tank's performance in combat, we often find a tank radically different from the peacetime assessments. Perhaps the starkest illustration of this phenomenon involves the T-72. Throughout the last two decades of the Cold War, Western analysts considered the T-72 to be the primary threat in Europe. Indeed, U.S. and NATO doctrine and programs focused considerable attention on countering the T-72 threat.
Finally, in January 1991, U.S. M1A1 Abrams and British FV4034 Challenger tanks faced the vaunted T-72 in live combat for the first time, during Operation Desert Storm. After a mere 100 hours of ground combat, the reputation of the T-72 lay in ruins. The world learned that the T-72 - the erstwhile scourge of Europe - simply was not in the same league as the Abrams and the Challenger on the modern battlefield. During the opening phase of Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Telic (the British component of OIF), the T-72 again found itself clearly overmatched by the M1A1 and M1A2 Abrams and the Challenger 2.
Across the deserts of Iraq, countless rusting, burnt-out T-72 hulks bear silent witness to the harsh realities of modern combat.
The Forecast International Weapons Group considers it unlikely that the T-72 will remain in production after 2012. While the T-72 will remain in service throughout the next decade, its days as a significant force in the international MBT market are clearly numbered.
Source: Forecast International Weapons Group
Associated URL: Forecastinternational.co m
Source Date: December 14, 2010
Author: D. Lockwood, Weapons Systems Analyst
Posted: 12/16/2010
