Delaware Exit Polls: Castle Would Have Lost 2010 US Senate race

[Soul Crusher]

Delaware Exit Polls: Castle Would Have Lost 2010 US Senate race
Delaware News Center ^ | December 27, 2010 | Jonathon Moseley


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Mike Castle would have lost the US Senate race in Delaware to Democrat Chris Coons, according to surprising exit polls by CNN in Delaware on election day, November 2, 2010. Contradicting theories advanced by Delaware Republican insiders, voters in Delaware on November 2 would have elected Democrat Chris Coons regardless of whether the Republican nominee were Mike Castle or Christine O’Donnell. The analysis places the focus on calls for systemic reforms of the Republican Party of Delaware.

According to CNN: “despite pre-election polls that showed longtime Republican Rep. Mike Castle handily beating Coons in a hypothetical match-up, the voters who turned out today said they would still probably have sent Coons to Washington over Castle, backing him 44-43 percent.”

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/11/02/exit-polls-the-surprise-in-delaware/#more-132853 “Exit Polls: the surprise in Delaware,” by CNN’s Rebecca Sinderbrand, Novmeber 2, 2010.



Exit polls for Fox News also found that Christine O’Donnell won the votes of Independents by 49% to 46%. (The graphic shows these percentages reversed 46% to 49% compared to the anchor's report.)
http://gatewaypundit.rightnetwork.com/2010/11/outrage-odonnell-wins-independents-but-not-enough-republicans-to-win-delaware/



Meanwhile, only 82% of Republicans voted for Christine O’Donnell.



It is undeniable that Republicans failing to unify behind the Republican nominee O’Donnell cost the Republican Party the US Senate seat. An amazing 18% of Republicans rejected their party’s nominee and voted for the Democrat Chris Coons. Republicans voting against their party’s nominee cost the US Senate seat from Delaware for the GOP.



CNN’s analysis further explained: “the exit polls lay out the political and demographic roadblocks facing any Tea Party favorite here. Nearly half the state's voters describe themselves as moderate. Nearly another 1 in 4 call themselves liberal. This is Biden country: 58 percent of Delaware voters say they approve of President Obama's job performance. And 36 percent say they strongly oppose the Tea Party.”



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So COD won the independents  in Delaware?   

 

[240 is Back]

exit polls are entirely unreliable when they had Kerry ahead by an assload in Ohio 2004, or when 60% of 2008 voters told FOX/Moffit/Edison research that they believed Palin was not even prepared to be veep.

But in THIS case, it's gospel, brother!

[Dos Equis]

Well there goes Rove's theory. 

[240 is Back]

Castle would have made it a helluva lot closer.  Anything could have happened in the debates.  ODonnell was 18 points down when he started, and she lost by 17 points? Something like that - she barely moved, right?  She was complete clutter, screaming about being a witch and refusing to state her beliefs.  She was a middle schooler applying for a job at a law firm.  In way over her head.

Coons sucked, bigtime.  Castle would have made it much closer, had voters been given a chance to hear his message.  Despite chumps sending ODonnell millions of bucks, she didn't make any progress against her opponent.  Castle would have moved UP against coons.

[Dos Equis]

Except the voters said otherwise. 

[Soul Crusher]

Democrats UNDER-Represented in Delaware Election. O’Donnell did not motivate Democrats
Red State ^ | December 28, 2010 | Pete Fescue



Democrats were apparently under-represented in Delaware’s US Senate race on November 2, 2010, according to CNN exit polls taken on election night.

Voter registration for Delaware’s 2010 election totaled

Democrats: 47 %.

Republicans: 29.4%.

“Other” & Independents: 23.5%

(Voter registration closed on October 9, 2010. Registration totals are as of October 21, 2010.)

http://elections.delaware.gov/services/candidate/regtotals.shtml

However, actual voter turn out according to CNN’s exit poll was:

Democrats: 44%.

Republicans: 30%.

“Other” & Independents: 27%

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=DES01p1

Thus Democrats were under-represented among the actual voters who turned out in the November 2 election.

Only 44% of actual voters were Democrats although 47% of all registered voters are Democrats. Republicans comprised 30% of actual voters while being only 29.4% of registered voters. (Because Democrat registration surged 11.2% between 2008 and 2010, a full 11.2% of Democrat registered voters are recently-registered and probably highly motivated to vote after recently registering.)

If CNN’s exit poll data is accurate, the theory that Christine O’Donnell energized Democrats to turn out and vote – harming Delaware’s “down ballot” races – is clearly false.

Democrats actually voted in numbers significantly less than their proportion among registered voters by 44% to 47%. Republicans voted in a slightly higher proportion than their voter registration by 30% to 29.4%. Therefore, Christine O’Donnell’s presence on the November 2 ballot clearly did not drive Democrats to vote.

Two competing theories are being disputed about the US Senate race between Republican Christine O’Donnell and Democrat Chris Coons. A major debate – perhaps even a healthy debate – is raging within the Republican Party of Delaware about the future of Republicans after the November 2, 2010.


(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...

[240 is Back]

Dems knew she would lose by 20 points.

So yeah, many of them stayed home. 

Wow.  Shocker!

[Dos Equis]

If CNN’s exit poll data is accurate, the theory that Christine O’Donnell energized Democrats to turn out and vote – harming Delaware’s “down ballot” races – is clearly false.

Democrats actually voted in numbers significantly less than their proportion among registered voters by 44% to 47%. Republicans voted in a slightly higher proportion than their voter registration by 30% to 29.4%. Therefore, Christine O’Donnell’s presence on the November 2 ballot clearly did not drive Democrats to vote.

Would like to hear what Rove has to say about this.  He knows his stuff, but looks like he was wrong on this one. 

[Straw Man]

Would like to hear what Rove has to say about this.  He knows his stuff, but looks like he was wrong on this one. 

the only stuff he really knows are dirty tricks

he was completely wrong about the midterms in 2006 as well