Update: 11 -- Now 10 -- Pro-ObamaCare Senators Face Red State Voters In 2012 As Webb Bows Out
By Ed Carson
Wed., Feb. 09, 2011 12:02 PM ET
Tags: ObamaCare - Repeal - Democrats - Congress - Elections - Tea Party
Update: With Wednesday's announcement that Sen. Jim Webb, D-Va., will not seek re-election in 2012, the number of pro-ObamaCare senators facing re-election in 2012 falls to 10. But the original post is worth revisiting.
Not a single Senate Democrat on Feb. 2 voted to repeal ObamaCare. That was expected. But with the health law as unpopular as ever, the vote could come back to haunt vulnerable Democrats in 2012.
Eleven Democrats up for re-election next year represent states in which Republicans won a majority of the 2010 popular vote for House seats: Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
Especially vulnerable:
* Montana’s Jon Tester and Missouri’s Claire McCaskill won in 2006 with less than 50% of the vote.
* Ben Nelson of Nebraska may have sealed his fate with his infamous “Cornhusker Kickback” that was widely seen as quid pro quo for being the 60th ObamaCare vote. Update: Sen. Nelson called Capital Hill, insisting that the Nebraska benefits weren't tied to his ultimate yes vote for the broader legislation. But the public perception -- and a sense that red states may no longer want Democrats to represent them in Congress -- puts him at great risk.
* Virginia’s Jim Webb, who narrowly won in 2006, is at least semi-vulnerable. And he could retire after a single term, some have speculated.
Update: Sen. Webb announced Wednesday he would not run for another term. This would seem to boost the GOP's chances in the state, which swung back toward a reddish hue in 2009-2010. Democrats will likely pressure ex-Gov. Tim Kaine, currently DNC Chairman, to run for the seat. Ex-GOP Sen. George Allen, who lost his seat to Webb in 2006, recently announced he would run again. However, Allen carries baggage with moderates over his "macaca" comment and with Tea Party activists for his big-spending history.
Meanwhile, a 12th red-state Democrat, North Dakota’s Kent Conrad, recently announced he would not seek another term. That seems a likely GOP pickup.
Some other longtime Democratic senators could choose to retire, especially if they face the prospect of a grueling campaign. For example, Wisconsin’s Herb Kohl will be 77 in 2012.
Democrats can console themselves with the thought that 2012 probably won’t be as bad for them as 2010, when voters took out their anger over high unemployment, record deficits and an aggressive liberal agenda.
But 2012 won’t be 2006 either. That year, Democrats retook Congress as voters took out their frustrations on Republicans over Iraq and Katrina while many conservatives stayed home. Several Democrats, notably Tester and McCaskill, barely won in the biggest anti-GOP wave in decades.
So while the political environment may not be as pro-GOP in 2012 as 2010, the political turf for the Senate races is far more favorable.
Even in a neutral election year, Democrats would likely lose at least a few Senate seats. And Republicans just need four more seats to win a majority.
President Obama’s re-election bid likely will improve turnout among core supporters such as blacks and university-town liberals, but those groups tend to be concentrated in deep-blue states and won’t be much help in swing states.
Meanwhile, Tea Party groups should be as motivated as ever over deficits, spending and ObamaCare.
Republicans will need good candidates to take advantage. They learned a painful lesson in 2010 by leaving winnable races on the table in Colorado, Delaware and Nevada.
With vulnerable Democrats firmly tied to ObamaCare’s mast, they’ll be looking for ways to move to Obama’s right on other issues between now and election day.
That process already is well underway.
* West Virginia’s House and Senate Democrats are pushing to curb the EPA’s authority over greenhouse gas regulations and the agency’s recent decision to revoke a permit for a major coal mining project in the state. Other Democrats from coal-mining or industrial states could forge a bipartisan coalition with Republicans.
From IBD’s Thursday issue:
“It’s not just West Virginia: Ohio, Kentucky, any (Appalachian state) can be affected by the EPA’s gross regulatory overreach,” said Jamie Corley, spokeswoman for (West Virginia GOP Rep. Shelley Moore) Capito.
Sen. Jim Webb, D-Va., author of an admiring history of the Appalachian people, is a potential ally.
“We are not going to let the EPA regulate coal out of business,” Webb said at a September rally of coal miners opposed to the EPA pulling the West Virginia permit.
The newly elected Manchin, West Virginia’s former governor, made the EPA a key theme of his 2010 Senate bid. He sued the EPA to stop it from rescinding the permit and later used a cap-and-trade bill for target practice in an ad.
Meanwhile, a potentially more important move this week was Sen. McCaskill’s decision to co-sponsor legislation with Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., to lower the cap on federal spending to 20.6% of GDP by 2020 from 24.7% this year.
As Jed Graham wrote in Capital Hill:
The Corker-McCaskill CAP bill goes a big step further than President Obama’s Fiscal Commission, which aimed to reduce spending to 21.8% of GDP by 2020. And it does so without the inducement for Democrats of more than $1 trillion in tax hikes over the coming decade.
Under the Corker-McCaskill vision, entitlements would no longer be entitlements; rather, they’d have to vie for annual budget dollars like any other program and their spending could grow faster than the economy only if spending on other programs were to shrink as a share of the economic pie.
In a similar vein, Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo., has signed onto a balanced budget amendment. Udall faces re-election in 2014.
Vulnerable moderates could give Republicans a working majority on many budget and regulatory issues. A key upcoming test is whether they side with Republicans over budget cuts as part of raising the debt ceiling.
Such victories will inspire the GOP base and discourage the already disillusioned Democratic base. And it will be a lot harder to portray Republicans as extremist if moderate Democrats join with them against liberal lawmakers and the Obama administration.
