MLB Projections

[phemonmmill32]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php

My Astros are projected to have the worst record.  Think TB is a little high and LAA is a little low

[Grape Ape]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php

My Astros are projected to have the worst record.  Think TB is a little high and LAA is a little low

I've followed PECOTA for years, and they've gotten progressively worse year after year, since a guy named Nate Silver left.  Some of their individual projections defy all logic.  Matt Wieters last year was supposed to be better than Mauer, according to them.

The good news for me is, that the Yankees have been outperforming their PECOTA projections for years now.

That said, those projections look reasonable, although the 33% for NY looks a little low, even with the staff as currently constructed.

[phemonmmill32]

have yet to see individual projections, but heard the guys on Hot Stove talking about how A Gonz extra base projections were way off.   Team projections look very conservative w/ most being in the same median range

[Grape Ape]

have yet to see individual projections, but heard the guys on Hot Stove talking about how A Gonz extra base projections were way off.   Team projections look very conservative w/ most being in the same median range

Team projections for wins are always seem low, and I can't admit I've ever looked into it.  I've always just accepted it, since it's consistent for all the teams.

I've always downloaded individual PECOTA and applied my FBB scoring to them to help me with my draft.  It's just that lately they haven't been as accurate, and sometimes they put too much emphasis on youth.

I think Adrian Gonzalez will be a beast, and I'm a Yankee fan.  The only knock I can think of is that his OBP was inflated by 25pts last year due to a very high number of intentional walks, which he won't get in Boston.  But I'm not going to talk myself into thinking it wasn't a great signing because it was.