EUR/CHF - bigger investment or not?

[affeman]

Dude, the EUR/CHF has broken several important resistances and notes at a long-time high of 1,3188. A lotta experts say that the CHF is finally gonna lose ground and that's the start of the break of the economic trend.

Would you think it's a good idea to go long now with a bigger investment? (5 fig.)

thx in advance

[Fallsview]

Just saved this thread.....STAY POSITIVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mahg]

Dude, the EUR/CHF has broken several important resistances and notes at a long-time high of 1,3188. A lotta experts say that the CHF is finally gonna lose ground and that's the start of the break of the economic trend.

Would you think it's a good idea to go long now with a bigger investment? (5 fig.)

thx in advance

I'm neither a swing or short term trader, nor do I follow that pair. In fact I have no exposure either way at the moment with EUR or CHF. I'm more of an arbitrageur and position trader. I don't believe in "resistances", it's a terminology invented by the powers that be in order to pretend that there's some formula to predict the market based on past movements, and to confuse and make ppl think things may go 1 way and then they'll reverse the market when it's worthwhile for them to do do. The "powers" meaning the banks, hedge funds, etc collectively.

What I do know, is that the market is cyclical as is the business cycle, and the moment a cross hits an all-time high and all the experts say its going to go even higher, it may rise a little bit more or even moderately to get as many people on that "trend" bandwagon, another word invented by the powers to delude people into thinking things will go a certain way even tho the market is as random as flipping a coin heads or tails cuz its basically all bout SENTIMENT. That's all the market is: a collection of minds. And things usually eventually go the opposite of popular opinion. The moment everyone or almost every1 think its going 1 way, for example up, thats when it will reverse, and make HUGE down moves very quickly.

The key in this market is to figure out what 99% of the market is doing, AND DO THE OPPOSITE.

In other words, the moment the experts and everyone says it'll go up, thats the popular opinion, all time high no less, and every sheep and lemming takes the up position, it may rise a bit just to make ppl feel more comfortable, but eventually the fall will be so intense it will break your bones. It's all random, all cyclical and thats how it all works. Based on the info you've given me, I would begin taking positions SHORT and gradually adding on if it goes up a bit just to make the masses feel confident they made the right decision before destroying them all.

Don't be a lemming or a sheep, be the shepherd. The 1 guy who controls the 100 sheep, he makes the rules. He's the power that be. Who He is, is the collective aggregate position of the commercials, or the "smart money". He will never tell u what he's going to do, he will never tell u what u need to know, usually the opposite. 

[225for70]

It looks like it's headed higher in the short term, weeks etc..

Notice how Fallsview, Alex23, Mahg is posting...He's confused cause he has so many gimmick accounts

[mahg]

However I just looked at the Eur/Chf chart and 2010's high was 1.46xx and low of 1.24xx so I dont know what ur taking about when u say "all time high" at 1.31xx. Therefore my prediction above is null and void cuz it was based on wrong info.

[mahg]

It looks like it's headed higher of the short term, weeks etc..

Notice how Fallsview, Alex23, Mahg is posting...He's confused cause he has so many gimmick accounts

I'm not a gimmick u silly pillock.

[mahg]

It looks like it's headed higher in the short term, weeks etc..

Notice how Fallsview, Alex23, Mahg is posting...He's confused cause he has so many gimmick accounts

The sheep are saying its headed higher so watch as it drops. 1 of my fav. resources is the moneytec forums, I go to see what the sheep are doing and begin taking small positions opposite of the popular opinion and always cashing out when the 99 of them lose, which is what eventually happens WITHOUT A DOUBT. I have tools and resources where I'm able to tell what the smart money and dumb money are doing, OANDA has a tool where they show what the general position is of their traders hoping u follow the trend, I always take the opposite and end result is fat bank account.

You start slow taking small opposite positions, and if u study the data hard enough, you see trends build and build, eventually 80% or more of traders are on 1 side, then the BIG moves happen and you see it drop to 40% or so, cuz the others were destroyed. Then u know its time to close dat dere position.

I only start playing opposite when I see 60% or greater trend, and wait for the fall and usually close out when its back at 50 or lower cuz then the powers are jockeying for position again.

I've got 20 bank accounts with $100k or more each and would post it all to show I'm not just talking out of my ass like 225for70, but most of u idiots think I'm a gimmick so why bother wasting time scanning all my shit. Lemmings will always be lemmings.

[Fallsview]

It looks like it's headed higher in the short term, weeks etc..

Notice how Fallsview, Alex23, Mahg is posting...He's confused cause he has so many gimmick accounts

First off, I'm not a gimmick.  KING23 and Mahg are both great assets to GetBig, quality posters. 

STAY POSITIVE.....DON'T GET FIST-A-FIED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[pedro01]

Mahg - you are both right & wrong with your comments about the markets...

Right in that all of that technical analysis nonsense is totally useless. It exists to sell books, courses, to get people to trade & to transfer the money of lemmings into the accounts of non lemmings.

You are dead wrong that the markets are random. I day trade the e-mini S&P and I can tell you absolutely without doubt that this market is manipulated and at certain times is quite predictable. This manipulation is mostly very short term but it can have a sustained impact depending on how people react to it. As you say, there is nothing logical about this reaction.

The people doing the manipulation know all about the way Technical Analysus traders trade and so they will set a market up to appear to roll over to encourage people to get short, then they'll push it up so that people then have to get out with a loss. Of course, when a big fish does this - his only worry is that a bigger fish will come and eat him.

Technical Analysis does not help in any way to see this occuring but it is possible if you are willing to work at it.

[mahg]

Mahg - you are both right & wrong with your comments about the markets...

Right in that all of that technical analysis nonsense is totally useless. It exists to sell books, courses, to get people to trade & to transfer the money of lemmings into the accounts of non lemmings.

You are dead wrong that the markets are random. I day trade the e-mini S&P and I can tell you absolutely without doubt that this market is manipulated and at certain times is quite predictable. This manipulation is mostly very short term but it can have a sustained impact depending on how people react to it. As you say, there is nothing logical about this reaction.

The people doing the manipulation know all about the way Technical Analysus traders trade and so they will set a market up to appear to roll over to encourage people to get short, then they'll push it up so that people then have to get out with a loss. Of course, when a big fish does this - his only worry is that a bigger fish will come and eat him.

Technical Analysis does not help in any way to see this occuring but it is possible if you are willing to work at it.

We're saying the same thing in different words. Basically the market moves the opposite of all the analyses, so I guess ur right that moves can be predicted based on the OPPOSITE of what the supposed "analysis" shows. But those terms and analyses are inventions and figments of the imagination, they're not "real". I guess I have to retract that the market moves randomly, it just moves against and opposite of the fake inventions that say it'll go 1 way lol.

[225for70]

Mahg - you are both right & wrong with your comments about the markets...

Right in that all of that technical analysis nonsense is totally useless. It exists to sell books, courses, to get people to trade & to transfer the money of lemmings into the accounts of non lemmings.

You are dead wrong that the markets are random. I day trade the e-mini S&P and I can tell you absolutely without doubt that this market is manipulated and at certain times is quite predictable. This manipulation is mostly very short term but it can have a sustained impact depending on how people react to it. As you say, there is nothing logical about this reaction.

The people doing the manipulation know all about the way Technical Analysus traders trade and so they will set a market up to appear to roll over to encourage people to get short, then they'll push it up so that people then have to get out with a loss. Of course, when a big fish does this - his only worry is that a bigger fish will come and eat him.

Technical Analysis does not help in any way to see this occuring but it is possible if you are willing to work at it.

I wouldn't say it's manipulation. Your trading against sophisticated computers most of the time. those algorithms are designed to literally steal from the smaller players in the market

[affeman]

However I just looked at the Eur/Chf chart and 2010's high was 1.46xx and low of 1.24xx so I dont know what ur taking about when u say "all time high" at 1.31xx. Therefore my prediction above is null and void cuz it was based on wrong info.

I said long-time high, not all time high obviously (that would be around 1,75). It has broken the 1,30 and 1,31 resistance for the first time in months, after going down constantly for almost 2 years or so.

[225for70]

I said long-time high, not all time high obviously (that would be around 1,75). It has broken the 1,30 and 1,31 resistance for the first time in months, after going down constantly for almost 2 years or so.

How are you going to make the trade? At a bank? Online broker?  Are you going to use leverage?

[mahg]

I said long-time high, not all time high obviously (that would be around 1,75). It has broken the 1,30 and 1,31 resistance for the first time in months, after going down constantly for almost 2 years or so.

Just figure out what the general sentiment is and what ppl r doing and do the opposite. All this resistance, trendlines, charts and graphs, pivot points etc are jokes, market moves completely independent of all that BS. Thats what I meant when I said random, but realise now that was the wrong word to use.

[affeman]

How are you going to make the trade? At a bank? Online broker?  Are you going to use leverage?

Of course leverage, otherwise Forex is not profitable. But I'm not sure if I make the trade, I've lost quite a bit on the last trades. I guess I'm a sheep, not a sheperd.

I'm with the biggest ECN broker of Europe. But I also considered buying knock-out certificates with a leverage on that one from my private banker.

[mahg]

Of course leverage, otherwise Forex is not profitable. But I'm not sure if I make the trade, I've lost quite a bit on the last trades. I guess I'm a sheep, not a sheperd.

Nothing wrong with being a sheep if ur a smart sheep willing to reform. Just think about what u would have done otherwise and do the opposite of it. There's so many rules though in trading and u need to know when to close out ur positions, that has to change cuz the market may take either a short or long time to make what will eventually happen, happen. U have to become a flexible position (long term) trader to make the real money. The short term guys are just gambling either way trying to make a quick buck which doesnt exist.

[225for70]

Of course leverage, otherwise Forex is not profitable. But I'm not sure if I make the trade, I've lost quite a bit on the last trades. I guess I'm a sheep, not a sheperd.

I'm with the biggest ECN broker of Europe.

Whose the broker your talking about?  Be sure to use a stop loss, and don't go to crazy with leverage...

I'm always am sure to maintain a 8% equity ratio at all times..

[affeman]

Whose the broker your talking about?  Be sure to use a stop loss, and don't go to crazy with leverage...

I'm always am sure to maintain a 8% equity ratio at all times..

Sure I got a stop loss on any trade, but that again is the opposite of long-term "mahg" was talking about. Sooner or later the market comes back anyway. Always bitter to get knocked out on your stop-loss and see the market take a turn 2-3 pips later.

That's my broker: www.dukascopy.com

[johnnynoname]

I was hoping mahg would post pics of his Hummer and Hot black wife

[pedro01]

i wouldn't say it's manipulation.Your trading against computers most of the time.

Regardless of how much automation there is - the market is still manipulated.

You can see this happening day in, day out if you know what to look for.

For example, you will see price hit a point of 'resistance', people will sell that and price will move down because of weakness that's 'visible' in the markets. What you'll then see is that although the selling continues, it's mostly smaller players and the selling is not causing price to move down. What's happening is that someone is sucking up all that selling and when they've had their fill, they'll drive price up and all of those sellers will bail (by buying) which will drive price up even more. Not only will those suckers be bailing out by buying but also, our friends the 'breakout traders' will buy the new high.

This kind of play usually takes 15-20 minutes and what you need to do is to buy when all the suckers are selling. Of course, this requires a fair knowledge of the market you are trading.

Now - it's actually extremely unlikely that computers are initiating this type of manipulation. Computers would of course be used to help manage the orders. You'd have orders in on the sell side to help build the appearance of weakness. These orders would be pulled immediately as price moved towards them as they are fake. You also have iceberg orders on the buy side - you might see only 500 contracts bid but see sales of thousands of contracts go through but still 500 bid. Sure - a computer would handle the order management - but knowing when to take the chance & when to bail if a bigger fish takes you on ? I doubt it.

Look up Paul Rotter AKA "The Flipper" - it'll give you an idea of the games that go on. Make no mistake - it IS a game.

[mahg]

Sure I got a stop loss on any trade, but that again is the opposite of long-term "mahg" was talking about. Sooner or later the market comes back anyway. Always bitter to get knocked out on your stop-loss and see the market take a turn 2-3 pips later.

That's my broker: www.dukascopy.com

The way you mitigate the stop loss situation is by diversifying your exposure and starting with small positions against any and all clear trends. Stop loss is another sheep invention designed to be a bulletproof vest against someone shooting at u from a tank. U may be able to take a few more shots but u still go down eventually. I'm quite the analogist.  

[pedro01]

I wouldn't say it's manipulation. Your trading against sophisticated computers most of the time. those algorithms are designed to literally steal from the smaller players in the market

Nope - there's a lot of myth about these algos in terms of what they are/aren't able to do. You do not need to compete with them.

[mahg]

This kind of play usually takes 15-20 minutes and what you need to do is to buy when all the suckers are selling. Of course, this requires a fair knowledge of the market you are trading.

That's exactly what I do but I don't play the casino game of 15-20 minute trading. I go in, start with small positions and am willing to wait months or years for things to go the way they eventually will. Half the time it happens soon (cuz short term is 50-50 if u ask me) and I use those profits as my buffer against the drawdown of the long term positions. I gradually add on to the positions that are against me so the breakeven level is closer, but u have to do things smartly so u dont blow out before the market comes back. But trust me, when it comes back, it comes back.  

Be smart, take out profits lil by lil, put it in bank accounts, buy some gold (another "trade" of sorts), buy some fancy watches, keep the balance in the system. Don't keep all ur money in ur account and increase lots to an insane level, greed kills every1. Diversify positions, diversify investments, diversify the countries u keep ur money in. Do things smartly and u will always stay ahead of the game.

[smoothasf]

How the hell do you do the opposite? if say for instance rumor has it that pharmacy A is gonna sky rocket. What do you buy to do the opposite??

[225for70]

How the hell do you do the opposite? if say for instance rumor has it that pharmacy A is gonna sky rocket. What do you buy to do the opposite??

Sell Pharmacy short/ Or buy put options on pharmacy A