The Russian scientists last year warned about destructive earthquake in Japan. Why nobody has listened?
The Strongest earthquake and the tsunami which have followed it has cast into shock not only Japan, but also the whole world. A series of pushes, most powerful of which - with magnitude 8,9 under the Richter scale, has led to enormous destructions. A considerable part of an industrial and transport infrastructure of the Country of a rising sun - in ruins. About quantity of victims of exact data is not present - in the suffered areas the chaos reigns. This cataclysm, out of any doubts, will rise in one number with the largest natural accidents. Moreover, according to National institute of geophysics and volcanology of Italy, earthquake has led to displacement of an axis of rotation of the Earth almost on 10 centimetres! Only for last year the wave of the earthquakes which have swept on a planet, has carried away, by approximate calculations, about a quarter of one million lives. Haiti, Chile, China. In the come year the elements have not spared the New Zealand Christchurch. Now - Japan. Who following?
It is unpredictable...
When speech comes about the exact forecast of earthquakes, scientists admit own powerlessness. Geophysics can sound only the long list of seismodangerous areas, and mathematics - to calculate a damage from cataclysm.« If someone seriously says that he is engaged in the forecast to it the professional community is mistrustful. All business in private «secular rules» which consist in demonstration of scepticism concerning possibility of the forecast or even hot conviction that solutions of a problem do not exist », - expresses the opinion the main research assistant of Institute of physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences the doctor of physical and mathematical sciences Alexey Ljubushin. This stereotype has arisen not for no reason. Look-ahead techniques have been approved some, but all of them have come to grief. Even in Japan, advanced from the technological point of view, after earthquake of 1995 in Kobe many authoritative seismologists« have lost the face ». And at the same time Japanese have lost also belief in forecasts. After Koby in the rising sun Country spoke only about measures on softening of consequences of earthquakes, giving a priority to aseismic building and training of the population to survival rules. The prognostic has left on the second plan. Such position is characteristic not only for Japan, but also for all other world. For Russia too. «Till now there is no officially accepted method of forecasting Earthquakes », - the laboratory chief of continental seismicity and the forecast of seismic danger of Institute of physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences the doctor of physical and mathematical sciences Alexey Zavyalov complains.
Despite a private anathema by which forecasting is betrayed, in scientific community work all the same goes. «Any other geophysical problem be real cannot more intriguing and interesting», - Alexey Ljubushin who, by the way, has developed own method of the seismoforecast considers. It would be possible to name it one of many and to scarify totally. But there is one but: present terrible Japanese earthquake has been predicted by Ljubushinym still 2,5 years ago.
On bricks
From the point of view of geomechanics any strong earthquake is liberation of a large quantity of the energy which has been saved up in terrestrial bowels. Energy appears in earth crust owing to slow movement litosfernyx plates. At the same time in an every spot on the globe including at the bottom of oceans, the constants which are not stopping not for a moment fluctuations of a surface are observed. These fluctuations, or a shiver of the Earth, carry the name mikrosejsmy. The prefix «mikro» underlines their difference from strong earthquakes. Alexey Ljubushin explains:« The basic energy source are oceanic waves and differences of atmospheric pressure. These are primary factors which pump up earth crust microseismic fluctuations ». Scientists have calculated, where settle down some kind of generators of these fluctuations. In Southern hemisphere it is the Falkland islands in the winter. And when there there comes summer, the pressure point moves to Northern hemisphere, in area of the Aleutian islands. But is, certainly, and other sources: any strong hurricane, a cyclone or volcano eruption generate mikrosejsmy.
The global system of supervision IRIS consisting of more than 150 stations, established on the world allows to register This "nervous trembling" of a planet. Broadband seismic devices synchronously measure microfluctuations of a terrestrial surface and transfer the data in the centre located in Washington. There they collect on powerful servers. This data is accessible to any Internet user: it is possible to come on a site, to be registered and order the information for the certain period of time from the necessary stations. A question only that with these files to do further.
To process the data, by the way, strongly polluted by data on extraneous "noise", the special method was required. It was developed also by Alexey Ljubushin. The Know-how consists In that a misfortune harbinger is synchronisation of the microsignals received from different seismic stations. In normal conditions when danger level low, from each station chaotic signals come. But if signals at adjoining stations suddenly are synchronised are a harbinger of earthquake. Explaining an essence of the theory, Alexey Ljubushin results such example:« Imagine the moving truck with a considerable quantity of bricks. They not simply lie a heap, but also constantly move rather each other. As and with earth crust: it consists of small blocks. If bricks in a body or blocks in earth crust with each other are not connected in any way, when they approach against each other, there are small earthquakes. Similar constantly happens in the same Japan. Shake-ups from 0 to 2 occur to magnitude there every day, and even nobody notices them. And now present that some bricks suddenly began to move together. In this case can collect much more energy ». If two are included in process not one, not, but hundreds interconnected blocks this file accumulates a large quantity of energy which is not spent in any way. When the file will break up, all saved up energy will be allocated. It is model of that occurs in earth crust on the eve of catastrophic earthquakes.
The Place and time
How all it to foresee? Only tracing synchronisation of signals: as soon as in any region of a planet they became similar - wait for a trouble. But to learn approximate date, it is necessary to analyze the information arriving from seismic stations for a long time. And then to apply ordering method which sounds extremely pseudoscientifically - «width of the carrier mul'tifrаktаl'nogo a spectrum singuljarnosti». Its essence consists that it sets a measure of a variety of casual fluctuations, and at the same time and a synchronisation measure: the a variety, the above synchronisation is less. If to estimate average value of this parametre for all stations in a daily mode some curve will turn out. It also will give out a harbinger of the future earthquake.
For Japanese islands such analysis Ljubushin of the beginnings regularly to spend from the beginning of 2008. In Japan since 1997 there is a national system of supervision F-net which unites 83 stations. From them, as well as in system IRIS, the data arrives in the uniform centre. The basic difference that in enough small territory a considerable quantity of the gauges which density of placing allows to make the exact is located The forecast. For Japan a point of change of character mikrosejsmov is on September, 26th, 2003 when near to coast Hokkaido there was a powerful earthquake in magnitude 8,3. Approximately for a year before the curve of a variety of casual fluctuations has gone downwards (the schedule see).« Such happens before earthquakes, but then the curve usually comes back to a place, - Alexey Ljubushin makes comments. - In Japan the curve into place has not returned, and here 4,5 years an average on a network of stations value of this parametre remains low, showing thereby high degree of synchronisation ». Proceeding from it, the scientist has assumed that earthquake to Hokkaido of 2003 was forshokom, anticipating even more terrible accident. In 2008, according to the scientist, the curve of level of synchronisation has sharply gone upwards. It is important to notice that the estimation of synchronisation of fluctuations contains a characteristic detail - the sharp failure observed on the eve of earthquake of 2003 and in the middle of 2008. This law has allowed Ljubushinu to draw a conclusion that spent 2010 - in 2011 on Japanese islands it is possible to expect catastrophic earthquake.
Within 2010 about approach of seismic accident in Japan Ljubushin warned 4 times - and on the international symposiums, and at the Russian conferences. But the forecast, alas, has justified.
Synchronize it
Whether the theory of the Russian scientist Is universal? Ljubushin admits that only establishes the fact:« The period of strengthening of global seismicity worldwide »comes nearer. The conclusion is made on the basis of that synchronism has raised on all planet as a whole. However, to learn, where there will be centres of earthquakes, the universal data worldwide is necessary. Such is not present and in pomine, and 150 stations IRIS are enough only for an estimation of a current seismic situation. Forecasting should pass in an ideal on following algorithm: having processed the data worldwide, seismologists mark increase of the general synchronisation. Then they study local networks. Only then it will be possible to tell, where the greatest synchronisation and where it is necessary to expect earthquake is fixed. For today local networks of seismosupervision are in Japan, in the USA, in southern Europe. Is and at us on Kamchatka. In other parts of the world there are only separate stations, otstojashhie from each other on thousand kilometres. Important also that for effective forecasting by scientist fast access to the information from any station is necessary. Such possibility is only for global network IRIS and Japanese network F-net. And here, for example, in the seismodangerous India is not present any station included in a global network. The prognostic of the future is an analysis of huge information volumes on supercomputers, working out of the newest software. These are huge efforts and expenses, which not under force to the separate research centres. To be engaged in it while wants nobody, and spare cash at anybody is not present. To assert easier that the seismoforecast - pseudo-scientific heresy. Though even according to scientific conformists the Earth enters an activity stage - the quantity of earthquakes will increase. Well, such forecast to make simply - the statistics speaks for itself. Another matter - a reality. It very much did not suffice inhabitants of Japan last Friday.
