Misery Index: The Obama Depression - "Private sector doing just Fine"

[333386]

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Unexpectedly Falls To A New Low
Sam Ro|Nov. 29, 2012, 11:00 AM|147|1




The Kansas City Fed's manufacturing activity index is out, and it's a big miss.

The headline number unexpectedly fell to -6 from -4 in October. Economists were expecting an improvement to -1.
 
From the Kansas City Fed's report:
 
Tenth District manufacturing activity eased further in November, while producers' expectations were unchanged from last month at modestly positive levels. Several contacts noted uncertainties about the upcoming fiscal cliff, and a few producers cited delayed deliveries and reduced orders from the East Coast as a result of the Hurricane Sandy. Price indexes moderated slightly.
 
The month-over-month composite index was -6 in November, down from -4 in October and 2 in September (Tables 1 & 2, Chart). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. This marked the first time the composite index has been negative for two straight months since mid-2009. Manufacturing slowed at durable goods- producing plants, while nondurable factories reported a slight uptick in activity, particularly for food and plastics products. Other month-over- month indexes were mixed in November. The production index was unchanged at -6, while the new orders and order backlog indexes declined for the third straight month to their lowest levels in three years. In contrast, the employment index increased from -6 to 0, and the shipments and new orders for exports indexes were less negative. The raw materials inventory index decreased further from 2 to -7, while the finished goods inventory index rose from 3 to 9.
 
Most year-over-year factory indexes decreased slightly from last month but remained positive. The composite year-over-year index eased from 11 to 9, and the production, shipments, new orders, and order backlog indexes also fell. On the other hand, the employment index rose from 12 to 22, and the capital expenditures index edged slightly higher. Both inventory indexes increased somewhat.
 
Most future factory indexes were unchanged in November, and remained modestly positive. The future composite index was stable at 3, and the future production, shipments, and new orders indexes also recorded little or no change. On the other hand, the employment index dropped somewhat, the future capital expenditures index fell after increasing last month, and the future new orders for exports index eased slightly. The future raw materials inventory index rose from -5 to 2, and the future finished goods inventory index also increased.
 
Price indexes moderated, after minimal change last month. The month-over-month finished goods price index eased from 8 to 3, and the raw materials price index also decreased modestly. The year-over-year raw materials index inched lower, and the finished goods index also edged down. The future raw materials price index dropped from 53 to 41, and the future finished goods price index decreased, indicating fewer firms plan to pass recent cost increases through to customers.


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/november-kansas-city-fed-manufacturing-2012-11#ixzz2DdIbtCMY

[GigantorX]

Drop in capital goods orders is a bad sign as well.

[magikusar]

My words to Obama: Any idiot can spend 15Trillion, the trick is to get something for the money, not more welfare mouthes.

[333386]

U.S. Birth Rate Hits Record Low

Decline Greatest Among Immigrants. Recession a Likely Factor, Report Says

Share on facebookShare on twitterShare on emailMore Sharing Services

By Stephanie Czekalinski

 Updated: November 29, 2012 | 4:05 p.m.
November 29, 2012 | 2:09 p.m.


AP Photo/Mary Altaffer

The U.S. birth rate plummeted in 2011 to the lowest level since the beginning of the Great Depression, led by a drop among immigrants.



The U.S. birth rate dropped to its lowest level since the beginning of the Great Depression, led by a drop among immigrants, according to a report data released Thursday by the Pew Research Center.

In 2011, the overall birth rate was 63.2 per 1,000 women of childbearing age, the lowest since at least 1920, Pew reported, citing numbers from the National Center for Health Statistics. The birth rate reached 122.7 in 1957, the peak of the Baby Boom. After the mid-1970s, the birth rate stabilized at about 65 to 70 births per 1,000 women annually, until the beginning of the Great Recession.
 
Since 2007, both the U.S. birth rate (the number of live births per 1,000 women ages 15-44) and the number of births have dropped significantly, according to the report.

Overall, the birth rate declined 8 percent from 2007 to 2010.  Among U.S.-born women, the birth rate dropped 6 percent. The decline among foreign-born women was 14 percent. Among Mexican women, the birth rate fell even more, to 23 percent.
 
(RELATED: State Education Data Reveal Large Racial Achievement Gaps)

 Despite the recent decline, foreign-born moms continue to give birth to a disproportionate share of the country’s babies, the report said. In 2010, immigrants represented about 13 percent of the U.S. population while foreign-born mothers accounted for 23 percent of all births.
 
After 2007, the number of U.S. births, which had been rising since 2002, fell abruptly, according to the report. This decrease was also led by immigrant women. Overall the number of births between 2007 and 2010 dropped 7 percent, pulled down by a 13-percent drop in births to immigrants. By comparison, births to U.S.-born women dropped only 5 percent.

The Pew researchers attributed that drop to a change in behavior (the falling birth rates) rather than a change in the number of women (those born in the U.S. or immigrants) of childbearing age.

An earlier Pew report attributed the recent fertility decline to “economic distress.” The study showed that states with the largest economic declines between 2007 and 2008 were most likely to experience relatively large fertility declines the following year.
 
Hispanic women - both those born in and those born outside the U.S. - experienced larger birth-rate declines from 2007 to 2010 than other groups. They also experienced greater percentage declines in household wealth than white, black, or Asian households between 2005 and 2009, according to the report. Latinos also experienced a greater rise in poverty and unemployment than non-Latinos after the Great Recession began.
 
The recent decline in births to foreign-born moms reversed a trend in which immigrant women accounted for a rising share of the country’s births, according to the report. In 2007, immigrant mothers accounted for a quarter of all U.S. births, compared to 16 percent in 1990. By 2010, foreign-born moms accounted for 23 percent of all births.
 
Despite the drop-off among the foreign-born, Pew population projections indicate that immigrants who arrived since 2005 and their descendants will account for 82 percent of U.S. population growth by 2050. Even taking the recent decline in immigration into account, new immigrants and their descendants are still expected to lead most of the nation’s population increase by mid-century, according to the report.

Other findings:

 The majority of births (66 percent) to U.S.-born women were to white mothers. That share has dropped since 1990 when it was 72 percent. The majority of births to foreign-born mothers were to Hispanic moms.

 Teen mothers make up a greater share of births among U.S.-born women (11 percent in 2010) than foreign-born mothers (5 percent).
 Mothers ages 35 and older make up a higher share of births to immigrants (21 percent in 2010) than to moms born in the U.S. (13 percent). Mothers born outside the country accounted for more than a third of births to women ages 35 and older that year.
 
Want to stay ahead of the curve? Sign up for National Journal’s AM & PM Must Reads. News and analysis to ensure you don’t miss a thing.

[333386]

ISM MANUFACTURING PLUNGES TO 49.5
Matthew Boesler|45 minutes ago|1,229|3
 
Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

November ISM Manufacturing is out.

The index reading came in at 49.5, well below estimates of 51.4 and last month's reading of 51.7.
 
Click here for updates >
 
The number indicates that American manufacturing has passed from expansion mode into a contraction phase, which seems to conflict with an earlier report from Markit that indicated a pickup in manufacturing activity.
 
The collapse in the index was led by Customers' Inventories (down 6.5 percent), Inventories (down 5.0 percent), New Orders (down 3.9 percent), and Employment (down 3.7 percent).
 
The Production sub-component was perhaps the lone bright spot, rising 1.3 percent to a reading of 53.7 from 52.4 last month.
 
The Prices Paid index also fell below expectation of 53.3 to 52.5, from 55.0 last month.
 
Below is a complete breakdown of the sub-components of the index:
 





ISM
 

Below are quotations from respondents to the ISM survey on business conditions:
 "Conditions still appear to be positive for continued growth in sales." (Machinery)
 "Business is steady, but not much more than that. We are in a lull." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
 "The principle business conditions that will affect the company over the next three or four quarters will be the U.S. federal government tax and budgetary policies; the impact of those policies is not yet clear." (Petroleum & Coal Products)
 "Differences between first half of year and remaining half are very dramatic, growing to a peak in the middle of the year with a gradual decline since." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
 "Seeing a slowdown in request for quote activity." (Computer & Electronic Products)
 "The fiscal cliff is the big worry right now. We will not look toward any type of expansion until this is addressed; if the program that is put in place is more taxes and big spending cuts — which will push us toward recession — forget it." (Fabricated Metal Products)
 "Seeing a slowdown in demand across markets." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
 "Economy is very sluggish. Production is down and orders have slowed considerably from Q1." (Transportation Equipment)
 "East Coast storms delayed some shipments." (Primary Metals)
 "Global economic uncertainty still seems to be sticking around which is not necessarily making things worse, but it is also not making things better from a demand standpoint." (Chemical Products)
 
Here is a link to the full report >


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/november-ism-manufacturing-2012-12#ixzz2E0LsJF1x

[333386]

Collecting Disability Becomes A Career Choice For Men (welcome to the Obama economy!)
 Investors Business Daily ^ | December 3 2012 | By Michael Barone

Posted on Monday, December 03, 2012 5:54:35 PM


"It is exceptionally difficult — for all practical purposes, impossible," writes Eberstadt, "for a medical professional to disprove a patient's claim that he or she is suffering from sad feelings or back pain."

In other words, many people are gaming or defrauding the system. This includes not only disability recipients but health care professionals, lawyers and others who run ads promising to get you disability benefits.

Between 1996 and 2011, the private sector generated 8.8 million new jobs, and 4.1 million people entered the disability rolls.

In 1960, some 455,000 workers were receiving disability payments. In 2011, the number was 8,600,000. In 1960, the percentage of the economically active 18-to-64 population receiving disability benefits was 0.65%. In 2010, it was 5.6%.

Some four decades ago, when I was a law clerk to a federal judge, I had occasion to read briefs in cases appealing denial of disability benefits. The Social Security Administration then seemed pretty strict in denying benefits in dubious cases. The courts were not much more openhanded.

Things have changed. Americans have grown healthier, and significantly lower numbers die before 65 than was the case a half-century ago. Nevertheless, the disability rolls have ballooned.

One reason is that the government seems to have gotten more openhanded with those claiming vague ailments. Eberstadt points out that in 1960, only one-fifth of disability benefits went to those with "mood disorders" and "musculoskeletal" problems. In 2011, nearly half of those on disability voiced such complaints.


(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...

[333386]

Kids Count Youth And Work Report: Number Of Young Adults Out Of School, Work Hits Half-Century High

The Huffington Post  |  By Emmeline Zhao Posted: 12/03/2012 4:33 pm EST Updated: 12/04/2012 6:19 am EST



Nearly 6.5 million U.S. teens and young adults are neither in school nor working, according to a new report from the Annie E. Casey Foundation. The report warns of a future of chronic unemployment due to a continuing failure to educate and train America's youth in needed skills.

The most recent "Kids Count" report, one of the most widely cited surveys of how youth fare in the United States, found that young people aged 16 to 24 are facing serious barriers to successful careers as youth unemployment has reached its highest level since World War II. Only about half of young people in that age group held jobs in 2011, according to the report, titled "Youth and Work: Restoring Teen and Young Adult Connections to Opportunity."

The employment rate for teens between the ages of 16 and 19 has fallen 42 percent over the last decade: 2.2 million teens and 4.3 million young adults aged 20 to 24 are neither working nor in school. Of those without school or work, 21 percent -- or 1.4 million -- are young parents.

North Dakota, Nebraska and Minnesota had the highest rates of employment among 20- to 24-year-olds. Laura Speer, one report's authors, told Minnesota Public Radio that early employment is key to future success.

"The thing that you got and I got from our very first job is mostly about how to work," Speer said. "How to be on a team, how to have a boss, how to show up on time. And those -- what are termed as 'soft skills' -- are things that are really critically important going forward."

Young adults are facing more competition from older workers for increasingly scarce entry-level jobs. Many lack the skill set required for available jobs. Still others face obstacles beyond their control, such as low-performing schools, a lack of working-adult role models and impoverished upbringings.

The report shows that lack of education, opportunity and connection to school or work has long-term implications for both the affected youth and society as a whole.The 1.4 million young adults who are not in school, are unemployed and have children can "perpetuate an intergenerational cycle of poverty" as they continue to fail to find work, the report states. (An earlier "Kids Count" report, released this summer and based on U.S. Census data, already showed that the portion of children living in poverty increased by nearly a third between 2000 and 2010.)




Described as disconnected youth, those who lack both jobs and a high school education are less likely to achieve financial independence and stability, and they can become a cost to taxpayers.

Of the 3.8 million students that start high school this year, a quarter won't receive a diploma, according to NPR. Those who don't finish school will earn $200,000 less than those who do over their lifetime, and $1 million less than a college graduate.

High school dropouts are not eligible for 90 percent of the jobs in the U.S. economy, according to Education Database, and a student drops out of high school every 26 seconds in the U.S., contributing to a rising unemployment rate. Dropouts cost taxpayers between $320 billion and $350 billion a year in lost wages, taxable income, health, welfare and incarceration costs, among others.

The "Kids Count" report stresses a need to offer multiple, flexible pathways to success for disconnected youth, and to find ways to reengage high school dropouts. Among the report's recommendations:

•National policymakers developing a youth employment strategy "that mobilizes public and private institutions together to tackle this issue."
 •Greater coordination among financial supporters for youth assistance programs.
 •Replication of successful efforts such as the National Guard Youth ChalleNGe in Battle Creek.
 •Employers stepping up to offer "career pathways and jobs for young people."

The report is published by the Annie E. Casey Foundation, one of the largest private charitable organizations in the U.S. devoted to improving the lives of children.

“All young people need opportunities to gain work experience and build the skills that are essential to being successful as an adult,” Patrick McCarthy, president and CEO of the foundation, said in a statement Monday. “Ensuring youth are prepared for the high-skilled jobs available in today’s economy must be a national priority, for the sake of their future roles as citizens and parents, the future of our workforce and the strength of our nation as a whole.”

[333386]

http://www.lewrockwell.com/rep3/welfare-cliff.html


Great article.  Enjoy 

[GigantorX]

Another poor jobs report.

I guess you can toss this one in with all of the other poor jobs reports....too many to count at this point.

[333386]

Free Republic
Browse · Search   Pings · Mail   News/Activism
Topics · Post Article
Skip to comments.

Citi Firing 11,000
Zero Hedge ^
Posted on December 5, 2012 9:38:28 AM EST by Perdogg

Big news ahead of this Friday's NFP report:

•CITI TO CUT OVER 11,000 JOBS, TAKE PRETAX CHARGE $1B IN 4Q "Sandy's fault?" or better yet, "Vikram's fault." Or maybe the economy is collapsing despite all the propaganda one is spoonfed. Considering the recent termination of over 50,000 by UBS we think we know the answer. And while C stock may jump on the news, the end result is that New York and the US have both just lost 11,000 less key taxpayers most of whom are almost certainly in the $250,000+ bucket. That said we can't wait for the BLS to take this data as somehow beneficial for the unemployment rate.

(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...

[333386]

Free Republic
Browse · Search   Pings · Mail   News/Activism
Topics · Post Article
Skip to comments.

Private Sector Adds Fewer Jobs Than Expected
FoxBusiness.com ^ | 12/5/2012 | Reuters
Posted on December 5, 2012 9:31:53 AM EST by mykroar

U.S. private-sector employers added 118,000 jobs in November shy of economists' expectations, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday.

Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast the ADP National Employment Report would show a gain of 125,000 jobs.

October's private payrolls were revised slightly down to an increase of 157,000 f rom the previously reported 158,000.

[333386]

U.S. Unadjusted Unemployment Shoots Back Up

Unemployment situation best for college grads, whites, men, and older workers

by Jenny Marlar

www.gallup.com


 

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, was 7.8% for the month of November, up significantly from 7.0% for October. Gallup's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 8.3%, nearly a one-point increase over October's rate.
 


These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews, conducted by landline and cell phone, with approximately 30,000 Americans throughout the month -- 67.2% of whom are active in the workforce. Gallup calculates a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate by applying the adjustment factor the government used for the same month in the previous year. Last year, the government adjusted the November rate upward by 0.5 percentage points.
 
It is unclear what caused the increase in the unemployment rate in November, although some experts speculate that it was caused by jobs lost as a result of superstorm Sandy. It is also possible that lackluster holiday hiring is to blame.
 
Although the increase in the unadjusted rate in November is a sharp contrast to the 0.9-point decline seen in October, November's 7.8% rate is still tied for the second-best unadjusted unemployment monthly reading of 2012. However, on an adjusted basis, November's rate is the highest reading in six months. Looking at year-to-year comparisons, seasonally adjusted unemployment is down from 8.9% in November 2011.
 
Underemployment, as measured without seasonal adjustment, was 17.2% in November, a 1.3-point increase since the end of October. The uptick in November also puts an end to the six-month trend of improvements or no change. Still, underemployment has improved 0.9 points since November 2011.
 
Gallup's U.S. underemployment measure combines the percentage who are unemployed with the percentage of those working part time but looking for full-time work. Gallup does not apply a seasonal adjustment to underemployment.
 


The increase in underemployment is the result of an increase in the number of people unemployed as well as the number of people working part time but wanting full time work, which rose to 9.4% in November from 8.9% in October. The number of workers wanting full-time positions generally increases during the holiday season as more people take on part-time seasonal work. Compared with this time last year, the percentage of workers desiring additional work is down a modest three-tenths of a point.
 


Unemployment Lowest for College Grads, Whites, Men, and Older Workers
 
Unemployment rates continue to be lowest for college grads (4.0%), Americans aged 50 to 65 (5.5%), whites (6.5%), and men (6.6%). At the other end of the spectrum, unemployment remains higher than 10% for blacks (12.4%), 18- to 29-year-olds (12.0%), people with a high school education or less (11.4%), and Hispanics (10.6%).
 
Regionally, Americans living in the South face the highest unemployment rates, while Midwesterners have the lowest levels of unemployment. The Labor Department recently reported that superstorm Sandy produced a large uptick in the number of underemployment claims being filed in the East, especially from New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. Gallup's data found that unemployment rose 1.2 points in the East between October and November. However, Gallup's U.S. unemployment rate rose by the same amount in the Midwest and went up a similar 0.8 points in the South -- indicating that Sandy isn't entirely to blame. Unemployment declined 0.2 points in the West.
 


Implications
 
Gallup's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate -- the closest comparison it has to the official numbers released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics -- increased in November, suggesting that the BLS will report another increase when it releases its numbers Friday. It is possible that some of the November increase in unemployment is the result of scaled-back holiday hiring, in which case the BLS may apply a smaller adjustment factor than it has in the past.
 
Although the employment situation has improved over the past year for Americans as a whole, it is apparent that more must be done to improve job opportunities for many specific groups, especially young Americans and blacks, who continue to experience the highest unemployment levels.
 
The increase in unemployment in November is a change from the positive momentum seen in recent months. However, it is also possible that October's dramatic improvement was temporary, and November's reading is a continuation of the earlier trend. The trend in future months will be an important indicator of the true momentum of the job climate.
 






Gallup.com reports results from these indexes in daily, weekly, and monthly averages and in Gallup.com stories. Complete trend data are always available to view and export in the following charts:

[333386]

ROSENBERG: One Of The Most Reliable Economic Indicators Peaked In July (Eating Out)
 TBI ^ | 12-5-2012 | Sam Ro

Posted on Wednesday, December 05, 2012 12:48:16 PM by blam

ROSENBERG: One Of The Most Reliable Economic Indicators Peaked In July



Sam Ro
December 5, 2012

When the official headline economic indicators don't work, savvy investors turn to the unconventional economic indicators.

In his latest Breakfast With Dave note, David Rosenberg visits a signal being sent by the restaurant sector:

EATING OUT IS OUT

 Our hedge fund desk has always told me that among the most reliable cyclical indicators for the American consumers is the restaurant sector. Traffic is slowing down precipitously and the companies are issuing negative guidance.

I took a look at the monthly details from the latest PCE data and saw that in nominal dollars, consumer spending on eating out sagged 0.4% in October and has contracted now in three of the past four months. The YoY trend peaked at +5.7% in July and has since slowed to +4.4% which is the softest pace in eight months (the three-month trend which a year ago was running at 7.5% at an annual rate is now close to stall-speed of 2%).
 As a sign that families are becoming more cautious in their spending and eating habits, grocery shopping is up in two of the past three months and at double the trend (at4%) of the restaurant industry.

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan has argued that the economy went into recession in mid-2012. This evidence seems to support that thesis.


(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...

[333386]

http://www.businessinsider.com/matt-kings-most-depressing-slide-ever-2012-12

[333386]

http://www.10tv.com/content/stories/2012/12/08/columbus-apartment-application-crowd-loses-control.html


Obama voters.   F em.

[whork]

http://www.10tv.com/content/stories/2012/12/08/columbus-apartment-application-crowd-loses-control.html


Obama voters.   F em.

Yes 53% of the country should go fuck themselves

[333386]

Yes 53% of the country should go fuck themselves

These welfare thugs should.

[whork]

These welfare thugs should.

The welfare recievers vote republican

http://thecentristword.wordpress.com/2012/04/11/welfare-teenage-pregnancy-and-obesity-reach-epidemic-levels-in-red-states-is-this-the-gop-blueprint-for-america/

[333386]

Ky. plastics manufacturing plant slated to close (392 jobs lost)
 WTVQ-TV / The Associated Press ^ | December 8, 2012

Posted on Sunday, December 09, 2012 12:23:46 PM by 2ndDivisionVet

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) — Milwaukee-based Johnson Controls plans to close a central Kentucky plastics manufacturing plant early next year, potentially putting nearly 400 employees out of work.

The Courier-Journal (http://cjky.it/U3qICs) reports that a mass layoff notice filed with the Kentucky Office of Employment & Training on Friday says up to 392 workers could be cut in February when the facility in Louisville closes. The plant produces injection-molded interior components for vehicles...


(Excerpt) Read more at wtvq.com ...

[333386]

Is America Headed Into An Intentional Recession?
 Townhall.com ^ | December 9, 2012 | Austin Hill

Posted on Sunday, December 09, 2012 10:21:28 AM by Kaslin

“Mah fellow Americans, inflayshun is ow-uh friend…”



If you can pronounce the phonetic wording above – and if it sounds vaguely familiar – then for better or worse you probably grew up watching “Saturday Night Live” like I did. The line comes from a late 1970’s skit wherein funny guy Dan Aykroyd was impersonating President Jimmy Carter.



During his one term as President, Carter addressed the nation numerous times to try and quell people’s fears about inflation, the economic malady that defined the era. During those years, Carter announced several anti-inflation policy measures. He urged Americans to “tighten their belts” and consume less, in an effort to decrease the demand for goods and services and, therefore, to get prices to decline (consumption, by the way, was actually quite stagnant even as prices rose – hence the problem of “stagflation”). And as he got closer to his re-election date he looked increasingly anxious, as though he was trying to convince Americans that he was doing as well as any President could.



In the midst of this, “Saturday Night Live” delivered the definitive presidential satire. With his impeccable imitation of the President’s “southern gentlemen” accent, Aykroyd – as President Carter – addressed the nation one fine Saturday night and told Americans that “our economy is screwed, blued, and tattooed,” but noted that we could stop fighting the battle against inflation- because “inflation is our friend.”



Aykroyd was hilarious because his character’s statements were absurd - no adult in their right mind and certainly no U.S. President would “embrace inflation” or regard it as a “friend.” President Carter was desperately trying to assure us that he was ending inflation, and Aykroyd’s routine illustrated just how desperately the President was trying to remain in our good favor.



But that was in the 1970’s. Today, just three weeks away from 2013, there is reason to believe that our President and his Administration – and perhaps his party, as a whole – is “embracing” recession, as though it is an appropriate means to a necessary end.



Ron Scherer, Staff Writer at the Christian Science Monitor, was one of the first to catch-on. He noted in a November 30th news story that in the midst of the “fiscal cliff” tax rate negotiations, President Obama had begun to speak on the campaign trail about another $255 billion stimulus package. Scherer surmised that the President was proposing more stimulus spending as a means of “offsetting” the impact of his own proposed tax hikes.



But what, precisely, would need to be “offset,” if President Obama’s agenda prevails? He just completed a successful re-election campaign claiming that raising taxes on “rich people” would be good for the economy, yet it now appears that he wants more stimulus spending as a means of saving our economy from his own economic policies. This would seem to be, at the very least, a tacit admission from the President that raising taxes on individual people – even those awful “rich people” among us – does, indeed cause a slowdown in economic activity, and may very well bring about a recession.



Shortly after the President began his new stimulus push, former Democratic National Committee Chairman (and former presidential candidate) Howard Dean made some extraordinary remarks of his own about the economy. In an interview at MSNBC, Dean stated that he wants the across-the-board income tax increases entailed in the “fiscal cliff” scenario, and welcomed the resulting outcome. “Will it cause a problem?” he asked rhetorically. “Yes. There will be a short recession, and it will be painful.” Yet despite the “painful recession” that will ensue, Dean expressed exuberance for the higher tax rates and the cuts in military spending that will result as well.



In a recession, individuals and families often lose. They often lose jobs, careers, and homes, and sometimes families are torn apart. Governments that truly prioritize the wellbeing of the citizenry, usually try to avoid recessions - for these, and other reasons.



But when governmental leaders prioritize their own power and agenda over and above the wellbeing of the citizens they serve, a “painful recession” is an acceptable means to an end. You and I may lose our home or job in an upcoming Obama recession, but that is of little concern. The President and his party have made it clear that their goal is to control more private wealth, spend that wealth as they see fit, and make the citizenry more dependent on government services.



When I was a kid, it was laughable to think that even the inept President Jimmy Carter was regarding inflation as “our friend.” Today, all Americans should be sobered by the reality that our President may be quite intentionally sending us in to recession, as an acceptable means of accomplishing his objectives.

[333386]

http://dailycaller.com/2012/12/09/food-stamp-use-reaches-another-high-in-september-47-7-million-participants


Hope and change

[333386]

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/12/09/NYT-Conservatives-May-Have-A-Point-About-Welfare-Dependency


O-ghetto loves this

[333386]

A Lost Generation?
By Robert Samuelson - December 10, 2012
 


WASHINGTON -- This is not a good time to be starting out in life. Jobs are scarce, and those that exist often pay unexpectedly low wages. Beginning a family -- always stressful and uncertain -- is increasingly a stretch. The weak economy begets weak family formation. We instinctively know this; several new studies now deepen our understanding.
 
When the labor market operates smoothly, it creates an economic escalator. Just out of high school or college, young workers typically switch jobs frequently until they find something that fits their talent and temperament. Job changes often mean higher pay; people move to advance themselves. The more they succeed, the more confident they feel in marrying and having children.

The most startling evidence of the broken escalator is the collapse in marriages and births. Marriage has been declining for years. Now, in a new study, the Pew Research Center finds that in 2011 the U.S. birth rate (births per 1,000 women between the ages of 15 and 44) fell to its lowest level since at least 1920, the earliest year of reliable statistics. From 2007 to 2011, the U.S. birth rate dropped almost 9 percent. The total fertility rate -- the estimated number of children born to adult women in their lifetime -- has fallen four straight years to 1.9 (the replacement rate is 2.1).
 
States with large economic setbacks suffered steeper birth rate drops, Pew says. Interestingly, births to immigrants fell more sharply than for native-born Americans. In 2010 -- the latest detailed data -- they dropped 13 percent from 2007 compared with a 5 percent decline for native-born women. Hispanics, both foreign and U.S.-born, had big birth-rate declines, reflecting (Pew said) exceptionally high unemployment and wealth losses from the recession.
 
The bleak labor market has hurt all age groups, but none more than the young. Consider the 23.4 million Americans who, on average, were considered "underemployed" over the past year. This group consists of 12.7 million officially unemployed; 8.2 million working part time but wanting full-time jobs; and 2.5 million desiring work but so discouraged they'd stopped looking. Of all these workers, 41 percent (9.5 million) were 30 or under, far in excess of their labor force share of 27 percent, reports Heidi Shierholz of the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal think tank that provided these numbers.
 
Fully one-fifth of younger workers belong to the "underemployed." As Shierholz notes, the young always have higher unemployment rates. It's just worse now. "Young workers are relatively new to the labor market -- often looking for their first or second job -- and so may be passed over in hiring due to lack of experience," she says. "If employed, their lack of seniority makes them candidates for being laid off."
 
But it's more than the lack of jobs -- or full-time jobs -- that hurts the young. Wages have also sagged because too many applicants are chasing too few openings.
 
Traditionally, U.S. labor markets have featured enormous turnover: Workers voluntarily leave jobs or are fired. Job changes vastly exceed net job creation, as hires often fill slots that someone else just left. On the whole, this has been a good thing, argues a new study. Workers can often find a better-paying job. But this "churning," as the study calls it, is abating. Because employers are creating fewer net new jobs, workers won't give up the ones they've got. As the labor market freezes up, the young lose bargaining power.
 
"Because job change accounts for a substantial portion of earnings growth, especially for younger workers, this decrease in churning reflects a decrease in workers' opportunities for [higher wages]," write the study's authors, economists John Haltiwanger of the University of Maryland and Henry Hyatt, Erika McEntarfer and Liliana Sousa of the Census Bureau.
 
The glut of job seekers depresses wages in a second way, argues the study. New firms -- which create a disproportionate share of new jobs -- don't have to pay as much to hire. In 2001, workers at firms 10 years old or less earned 85 percent as much as workers at older firms. By 2011, they were paid only 70 percent as much. And these newer firms matter. From 1998 to 2011, they created 40 percent of net new jobs despite representing only 25 percent of total employment.
 
It's usually a mistake to generalize about entire generations. The bad luck and bad timing of today's 20-somethings may pass. Birth rates could bounce back. "In the past, women who have postponed births make up for it later," says Pew's D'Vera Cohn. The economic recovery may strengthen; the retirement of baby boomers will create new job openings; and surveys indicate the young remain optimistic despite setbacks.
 
So the economic escalator may again accelerate. Still, the question nags: Could this become a lost generation?



Copyright 2012, Washington Post Writers Group

[333386]

 

[333386]

December 10, 2012
Under Obama, Economic Stagnation Is the New Normal
By Louis Woodhill


Friday's "Employment Situation" report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that 5.4 million Americans have dropped out of the labor force since Barack Obama took office. The labor force declined by 350,000 in November, despite an increase of 191,000 in our working age population.
 
The unprecedented decline of labor force participation under President Obama is not news. However, it also appears that millions of brain cells have dropped out of the mental labor force of America's economic analysts. How else can we account for headlines like these?
 
"Jobs report: A pleasant surprise" (Jared Bernstein)


 


"The employment emergency is over" (Felix Salmon)
 
"Fiscal cliff? What fiscal cliff? No evidence in jobs numbers" (Stephen Gandel)
 
In case anyone didn't notice, the BLS jobs report was terrible. Unemployment didn't go down in November (from 7.9% to 7.7%) as the BLS reported, it actually went up. The true unemployment rate, calculated at the labor force participation rate that existed when Bush 43 left office (65.8%), increased from 10.7% to 10.8%. This put the true unemployment rate 1.3 percentage points higher than when Obama's so-called "economic recovery" began, almost 3.5 years ago.
 
As of November 2012, total employment was still 3.2 million below its peak, which occurred five years earlier. This is particularly ghastly, because America's working age population has increased by 11.2 million since then. Less than 1% of incremental working-age Americans have managed to get jobs since Obama took office.
 
But wait. There's more.
 
America moved another 246,000 jobs further away from full employment during November. We had fewer full-time jobs last month than we did in January 2005, which was almost eight years ago.
 
Assuming that November's CPI comes in as expected (2.0% annual inflation rate), the real wages of ordinary ("production and non-supervisory") workers were 1.9% lower in November 2012 than they were in November 2010. They were also 9.0% lower than they were in November 1964, for that matter.
 
Question: How can anyone look at something as dismal as Friday's BLS report and see anything but economic stagnation? Answer: Under Obama, economic stagnation has become the new normal.
 
Just as fish don't know that they are wet, many economic analysts seem to have lost sight of what an economic recovery is supposed to look like. Hint: It's supposed to look like the Reagan recovery from the severe 1981-1982 recession.
 
November 2012 marked 60 months since total employment peaked (in November 2007). At this point in the Reagan recovery (April 1986), total employment was 7.8% above the previous peak. If the Obama recovery had been as strong as Reagan's, there would be 14.8 million more Americans working right now.
 
During Reagan's first term, the employment ratio, which is total employment divided by the working age population, rose by 0.9 percentage points. With one month to go in Obama's first term, the employment ratio has declined by an unprecedented 2.3 percentage points during his time in office. During the recent campaign, Obama sought to be identified with Bill Clinton, but during Clinton's first term, the employment ratio went up by 2.0 percentage points.
 
Reagan produced his recovery via a combination of a strong dollar, tax cuts, and regulatory relief. Obama has continued Bush 43's weak dollar policy, but has added the Obamacare tax increases and a blizzard of new regulations. And, he has vowed to fight for even more tax increases.
 
Not surprisingly, opposite causes produce opposite effects. From an employment point of view, there has been no economic recovery at all.
 
On November 6, Obama won a second chance to turn the economy around, by defeating clueless conservative Mitt Romney. So, what is Obama's plan? His plan is more of the same. More of Ben Bernanke's "quantitative easing", more tax increases, and even more regulations. Oh, and don't forget the $50 billion in additional "stimulus" spending Obama wants.

Part of Obama's new normal involves ignoring the staggering difference between the president's promises and the actual results delivered.
 
Obama's $842 billion in stimulus spending was supposed to get the unemployment rate down to 5.2% by now. The actual unemployment rate in November (calculated at the labor force participation rate assumed for the stimulus plan) was 10.8%. This is not only more than twice as high as the level promised, it is higher than the 10.4% rate (calculated on the same basis) that existed when Obama signed the stimulus bill into law.
 
So, is there any hope for the working class, and for jobless Americans that want to join the working class? As things stand right now, no, there isn't. Here's why.
 
Right now, America is about 14.7 million jobs short of full employment. To create one average job, someone has to invest about $200,000 in nonresidential assets. Therefore, to create the additional jobs we need, someone would have to invest an additional $3.0 trillion or so in the U.S. economy.
 
If an additional $3.0 trillion had been invested by the private sector during Obama's recovery, 3Q2012 GDP would have been $1.5 trillion, or 9.5%, higher than it actually was. Real GDP growth during those 13 calendar quarters would have averaged 5.11%, rather than the 2.21% actually achieved. By way of comparison, real GDP growth averaged 5.67% during the first 13 quarters of the Reagan recovery.
 
Coming out of a severe recession, a sustained period of fast economic growth has been normal for America,. However, under Obama, slow growth and high joblessness has become the new normal.
 
OK, so, who happens to have $3.0 trillion lying around, plus the knowledge and skills required to invest it wisely to create sustainable jobs? The poor? The middle class? The government?
 
No, the investment required to transform America's stagnant jobs picture can only come from the people that actually have the money, as well as the demonstrated ability to manage capital investment. In other words, it would have to come from the hated and reviled "one percent".
 
Obviously, "the rich" are already investing all that they are willing to invest under the current structure of incentives. Obama's plan is to do everything he can to make investment even less attractive for "the one percent" than it is now. This is why economic stagnation has become the new normal.
 
A good measure of the driving force for "the rich" to invest in job-creating nonresidential assets is the Real Dow, which is the Dow Jones Industrial Average divided by the price of gold.
 
A rising Dow reflects a flow of capital into productive assets. A rising gold price indicates that capital is moving into inflation hedges. The Real Dow, which is the ratio of the two, reveals the balance between the competing investment options available to "the rich".
 
The jobs picture will not improve until and unless the Real Dow begins a sustained rise. Unfortunately, the Real Dow ended November at 7.61. This is down by 16.6% since Obama's so-called "economic recovery" began, lower by 23.6% than when Bush 43 left office, and down by a staggering 80.6% since we last enjoyed full employment (in April 2000, under Bill Clinton).
 
So, if you are waiting for an improvement in the employment picture, watch the Real Dow, but don't hold your breath.
 
There will have to be big changes in policy before the jobs situation will improve significantly. Essentially, Obamunism would have to be supplanted by Reaganomics. America would have to move to a strong, stable dollar, lower taxes (especially on savings and investment), and cost-effective regulations.
 
As things stand, the American people can look forward to more years of economic stagnation, as well more years of pretending that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Don't worry if your kids graduate from college, only to move back home and play video games in the basement. It's just the new normal.
 




Louis Woodhill (louis@woodhill.com), an engineer and software entrepreneur, is a Forbes contributor.