Official Barack Obama Re-Election Thread

[240 is Back]

Yeah OK, the media did no cover up for all the stupid fucking shit Obama said did they? Obama is the king of saying stupid shit over and over, but I guess thats OK he's only the POTUS. I used to think you were just fucking with 333 now i'm starting to think you really have bought into the whole messiah image.

LOL!  "The media" is nothing more than a bunch of businesses that cater to the desires of their viewers.

face it, younger viewers buy more of the products advertised.
younger viewers are more liberal.
more 'news' shows, or infotainment channels, cater to younger liberals.

this isn't rocket science, it's economics 101.  People who are 80 and wear Depends don't spend as much money at the grocery store as 32 year old liberal moms.  FACT.

[tu_holmes]

LOL!  "The media" is nothing more than a bunch of businesses that cater to the desires of their viewers.

face it, younger viewers buy more of the products advertised.
younger viewers are more liberal.
more 'news' shows, or infotainment channels, cater to younger liberals.

this isn't rocket science, it's economics 101.  People who are 80 and wear Depends don't spend as much money at the grocery store as 32 year old liberal moms.  FACT.

That is probably true... Damn you businesses.

[240 is Back]

That is probably true... Damn you businesses.

people like to romanticize the media as some witty photog uncovering 'the truth' and sending corrupt bad guys to jail.

The reality is that they're just TV outlets like the cooking channel and print outlets like Penthouse.  They give the events of the day to their subscribers in a style that attracts them.

The fact of the matter is that they are multi-billion dollar BUSINESSES.  They exist to sell advertising.  And make money.

Getbiggers get so mad that 'the media' is biased.  No, they just put a slant on the days' events that keep the spending viewer watching longer.

[Fury]

LOL!  "The media" is nothing more than a bunch of businesses that cater to the desires of their viewers.

face it, younger viewers buy more of the products advertised.
younger viewers are more liberal.
more 'news' shows, or infotainment channels, cater to younger liberals.

this isn't rocket science, it's economics 101.  People who are 80 and wear Depends don't spend as much money at the grocery store as 32 year old liberal moms.  FACT.

Did you learn this in the same MBA program that didn't bother teaching you about diversifying portfolios?

"Buy high, sell low" - MBA motto from French Fry U.

[Kazan]

LOL!  "The media" is nothing more than a bunch of businesses that cater to the desires of their viewers.

face it, younger viewers buy more of the products advertised.
younger viewers are more liberal.
more 'news' shows, or infotainment channels, cater to younger liberals.

this isn't rocket science, it's economics 101.  People who are 80 and wear Depends don't spend as much money at the grocery store as 32 year old liberal moms.  FACT.

So you aren't going to address the fact the media covered for Obama? Instead try another end around to derail the actual topic? Nice try spinmeister, but I'm not buying.

[Soul Crusher]

Sanders: Would be 'good' for Obama to face primary challenge
By Michael O'Brien - 07/25/11 08:56 AM ET    

________________________ _______


One of the Senate's liberal stalwarts suggested over the weekend that President Obama could benefit from a primary challenger over the next year.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.), an Independent who caucuses with Democrats, said it would be a "good idea" for Obama to face a primary challenger, if for nothing else than as a counterweight to Republican voices in the presidential debate.


"My suggestion is, I think one of the reasons the president has been able to move so far to the right is that there is no primary opposition to him, and I think it would do this country a good deal of service if people started thinking about candidates out there to begin contrasting what is a progressive agenda as opposed to what Obama is doing," Sanders told talk show host Thom Hartmann over the weekend. "I think it would be a good idea if President Obama faced some primary opposition."

Liberals like Sanders have been critical of Obama for engaging with Republicans in negotiations over how much to cut spending, in connection with an agreement to raise the nation's debt ceiling. Sanders in particular has been a vocal opponent of any plans to transform entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare.




RELATED ARTICLES
•First Lady says 'no' to post-White House political career
Sanders made no indication that he would be the one to wage a challenge to the president; he faces his own reelection battle in Vermont in 2012.

It's not clear whether anyone else in the Democratic Party would have the stomach for taking on an incumbent president, one who faces a tough enough reelection without having to divert resources toward fending off a challenge from his left. Former Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) had been a subject of speculation, but his spokesmen have said he supports Obama's reelection.




www.thehill.com

[Soul Crusher]

President Obama’s job approval rating in the latest national polls has been in the danger zone, ranging from 42 percent (Gallup) to 47 percent (ABC News/Washington Post), with every survey showing him with higher unfavorables than favorables.  Needless to say, it’s not a good place for a president to be, especially since his numbers have worsened over the past two months.
The race for president isn’t a national contest. It’s a state-by-state battle to cobble an electoral vote majority. So while the national polls are useful in gauging the president’s popularity, the more instructive numbers are those from the battlegrounds.
Those polls are even more ominous for the president: In every reputable battleground state poll conducted over the past month, Obama’s support is weak. In most of them, he trails Republican front-runner Mitt Romney.  For all the talk of a closely fought 2012 election, if Obama can’t turn around his fortunes in states such as Michigan and New Hampshire, next year’s presidential election could end up being a GOP landslide.
Take Ohio, a perennial battleground in which Obama has campaigned more than in any other state (outside of the D.C. metropolitan region). Fifty percent of Ohio voters now disapprove of his job performance, compared with 46 percent who approve, according to a Quinnipiac poll conducted from July 12-18.  
Among Buckeye State independents, only 40 percent believe that Obama should be reelected, and 42 percent approve of his job performance. Against Romney, Obama leads 45 percent to 41 percent—well below the 50 percent comfort zone for an incumbent.
The news gets worse from there.  In Michigan, a reliably Democratic state that Obama carried with 57 percent of the vote, an EPIC-MRA poll conducted July 9-11 finds him trailing Romney, 46 percent to 42 percent. Only 39 percent of respondents grade his job performance as “excellent” or good,” with 60 percent saying it is “fair” or “poor.” The state has an unemployment rate well above the national average, and the president’s approval has suffered as a result.
In Iowa, where Republican presidential contenders are getting in their early licks against the president, his approval has taken a hit. In a Mason-Dixon poll conducted for a liberal-leaning group, Romney held a lead of 42 percent to 39 percent over the president, with 19 percent undecided. Even hyper-conservative Rep. Michele Bachmann ran competitively against Obama in the Hawkeye State, trailing 47 percent to 42 percent.
The July Granite State Poll pegs the president’s approval at 46 percent among New Hampshire voters, with 49 percent disapproving. A separate robo-poll conducted this month by Democratic-aligned Public Policy Polling shows him trailing Romney in the state, 46 percent to 44 percent.
Polls are just a snapshot, and these illustrate that the sour economy has been taking its toll on the president’s popularity. There’s plenty of time left before November 2012, but the fundamentals—projections of long-term slow economic growth, a White House struggling to tailor a message on job creation, and an energized Republican base—don’t bode well. The president’s best hope is for a deeply polarizing Republican nominee, such as Bachmann, to emerge.
Obama’s performance so far on the debt-ceiling debate hasn’t improved his standing, either. Pundits may have graded the president a winner in the battle, but it wasn’t long ago that the White House was demanding a clean debt-ceiling increase from congressional Republicans. Now, it appears that whatever deal ends up being struck will be much closer to the GOP’s terms, with the president looking less consequential in the whole process.
Obama let his frustration show at last Friday’s press conference, looking helpless while talking down the prospects of economic growth without a long-term deal. He may end up being forced to either accept a debt-ceiling package crafted by House Republicans or threaten a veto that could send markets reeling. And somehow, he manages to become more popular after all is said and done?
At this point, even a last-minute agreement that runs until after the presidential election benefits no one politically. It only underscores how broken Washington is, and that’s not good news for any incumbent, including the president.
For some time, the conventional wisdom has been that 2012 will be a close presidential contest, with a best-case scenario for Republicans of winning the race with a map similar to George W. Bush’s 2004 victory over Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass.  

But if the president can’t turn things around, that logic could prove badly outdated. If Obama is struggling in the Democratic-friendly confines of Michigan and Pennsylvania (as recent polls have indicated), it’s hard to see him over-performing again in more-traditional battlegrounds such as Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia.
Unless the environment changes significantly, all the money in the president’s reelection coffers won’t be able to expand the map; it can only defend territory that’s being lost. And just as House Democrats played defense to protect the growing number of vulnerable members in last year’s midterms, Obama is looking like he’ll be scrambling to hold onto a lot of the states that he thought would be part of an emerging Democratic majority.


http://nationaljournal.com/columns/against-the-grain/obama-s-battleground-state-blues-20110726?print=true

[Soul Crusher]

Morning Jay: The Fundamentals Do Not Currently Favor Obama's Reelection
Jay Cost
July 27, 2011 6:00 AM



The next presidential election is about fifteen months away. And even though the outcome is highly uncertain, we nevertheless can get an early read on the “fundamentals”--and these do not look good for President Obama.


First, a little historical background. From 1936 until about 1984, Democratic partisans vastly outnumbered Republicans in the broader electorate. This meant that GOP nominees not only had to win their base, they also had to do extremely well among independents and carry a good number of Democrats. However, with the success of the Reagan administration, the percentage of Democrats in the electorate began to decline. Today, it is only marginally higher (if at all) than GOP voters.


Thus, both parties have roughly the same two goals in a presidential election: turn out as many partisans as possible and win the independent vote.


This gives us two good metrics to begin looking at Obama’s prospects. Let’s start with the independent vote.


The Gallup poll offers a weekly breakdown of self-identified independents in the adult population. This is a good metric to determine how the president is doing with this critical bloc:



As you can see, the results are not good for the president. He fell below 50 percent with independents in the summer of 2009, and since the winter of 2010, he has struggled to stay above 45 percent.


It is worth pointing out that, in the last forty years, no president has ever been elected in a predominantly two-way race with less than 48 percent of the independent vote. (That was George W. Bush in 2004.)


What about Obama’s partisan base? The spin leading up to and after the 2008 election was that the president was transforming the electorate by converting new voters, independents, and “sensible” Republicans into Democrats. How has that turned out?


Let’s again look to the Gallup poll, which tracks the partisan identification of American adults. Below is a historical trend-line of the proportion of the adult population who identify as Democrats and Republicans.



The data point in each graph is the closest poll taken to Election Day. As you can see, in 2010 the percentage of adults calling themselves Democrats was at its lowest point in fifty years.


We can take all of the data we have reviewed so far and merge it into a very rough estimate of the president’s electoral standing. Over the last decade, Democrats have won about 90.5 percent of the Democratic vote and 7 percent of the Republican vote. Let’s assume that Obama wins the same amount. Let’s also assume that he wins a share of the independent vote equal to his approval in the Gallup poll.


That leaves one variable to account for: the percentage of Republicans, Democrats, and independents in the electorate. Let’s use three models. First, a “Very Democratic Electorate,” where partisan identification breaks down similar to 2008 (39 percent Democratic, 29 percent independent, and 32 percent GOP). Next, a “Slightly Democratic Electorate,” where partisan identification breaks down similar to 2006 and 2000 (38.5 percent Democratic, 26 percent independent, and 35.5 percent GOP). Finally, an “Even Electorate,” where partisan identification breaks down similar to 2004 and 2010 (36 percent Democratic, 28 percent independent, and 36 percent GOP).


Using these three models, we can estimate Obama’s reelection support based on changes in the Gallup poll among independents.




As you can see, under anything less than a very Democratic electorate, Obama’s support among independents has been too soft to secure reelection for nearly two years. As for the more optimistic scenario for the president, even here the race has essentially been a toss-up for the last year or so. And, without a noticeable change in the trends on partisan identification, it is hard to envision such a pro-Democratic electorate emerging next year.

Finally, what about the campaign? Could Obama be expected to regain his edge when he takes his positions to the voters? It is possible, of course, yet winning the campaign argument seems easier said than done for the president at this point.

Obama’s job approval at the moment is relatively weak – as of this writing, the RealClearPolitics average has it at 45.4 percent. What should worry the Obama team more is how much worse the president’s support is when it comes to particular issues, especially those that are of top concern to voters.

Consider the AP-GfK poll, taken last month. It showed his overall job approval rating at 52-47. However, on the issues that respondents listed as “extremely” or “very important,” it tended to be much worse.



How well can the president fare in a campaign that is dominated by issues on which he is extremely unpopular?

At this point, Obama is a prisoner to events. He needs a substantial, noticeable improvement in the economy, specifically as independent voters experience it, to have a decent shot at reelection. And beyond that, his health care bill remains extremely unpopular, and the deficit is bound to remain an issue next year. So, he has a lot of fundamental challenges. Assuming that his macro-position does not improve (and the Republicans nominate a reasonably acceptable candidate), the data at this point indicate that he would have a very difficult time winning reelection next year.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Subscribe now to The Weekly Standard!

Get more from The Weekly Standard: Follow WeeklyStandard.com on RSS and sign-up for our free Newsletter.

Copyright 2010 Weekly Standard LLC.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source URL: http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-fundamentals-do-not-favor-obamas-reelection_577621.html

[Soul Crusher]

Harris Interactive: President Obama Would Lose if Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani Was the Nominee
Harris Interactive ^ | 07/27/2011




NEW YORK , N.Y. - July 26, 2011 - By this time next summer the Republican candidate who will challenge President Obama will be known but at this point the list of candidates and potential candidates for the nomination is still far from finalized. With the "will-he-or-she-run-questions" still being asked and answered, some of the names with the highest familiarity among the general public are still not even declared candidates.

Obviously because of her run for Vice President with John McCain, almost nine in ten Americans (86%) are familiar with Sarah Palin and 75% of U.S. adults are familiar with Rudy Giuliani, both of whom are still undeclared, but possible candidates for the nomination. Majorities of Americans are familiar with declared candidates Newt Gingrich (72%), Mitt Romney (67%), and Ron Paul (52%) while half are familiar with Michele Bachmann (50%). All other potential candidates are at 30% or under in terms of familiarity.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,183 adults surveyed online between July 11 and 18, 2011 by Harris Interactive.

Even among Republicans, many declared candidates do not have majorities familiar with them. Tim Pawlenty (33%), Rick Santorum (31%), Herman Cain (29%), and Jon Huntsman (15%) all have one-third of Republicans or less familiar with them.

With this in mind, it's not surprising then that among Republicans over one-quarter (28%) say they are not at all sure who they would vote for if they were voting in the Republican primary. Rudy Giuliani (14%) and Mitt Romney (14%) rise to the top among Republicans followed by Sarah Palin (12%). All the other candidates presented are under 10% including Rick Perry (8%), Michele Bachmann (6%), and Ron Paul (5%). Among Independents there is a three way tie for "first place" between Rudy Giuliani (10%), Mitt Romney (10%) and Ron Paul (10%). But over two in five Independents (42%) say they are not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary election.

Against President Obama

Looking ahead to November, it seems there are three possible candidates who could give President Obama a difficult time. President Obama would lose his re-election if Rudy Giuliani (53% to 47%) or Mitt Romney (51% to 49%) was the Republican nominee. Each candidate would receive 50% of the vote if the President was running against Ron Paul. Right now, President Obama would win re-election against the 10 other candidates presented.

So What?

Right now the Republican party needs to figure out who they are and begin the process of coalescing around one candidate. In the study of politics, there is always a debate regarding electability and this election may show that clearly. Should Republicans nominate a candidate who stands for certain values or policies important to a sub-section of the party, even though that candidate may not be electable in the general election? This is a question the Republican party needs to answer if they want to win next November.

 
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; NA indicates it was not asked in that poll.

 

 

 

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between July 11 to 18, 2011 among 2,183 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

 

[Soul Crusher]

Obama Loses Ground in 2012 Reelection Bid
In GOP, Romney Leads, Attentive Like Perry, Bachmann Most Visible
Overview


http://people-press.org/2011/07/28/obama-loses-ground-in-2012-reelection-bid


The sizeable lead Barack Obama held over a generic Republican opponent in polls conducted earlier this year has vanished as his support among independent voters has fallen off. Currently, 41% of registered voters say they would like to see Barack Obama reelected, while 40% say they would prefer to see a Republican candidate win in 2012. In May, Obama held an 11-point lead.

This shift is driven by a steep drop-off in support for Obama among independents. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted July 20-24 among 1,501 adults and 1,205 registered voters finds that just 31% of independent voters want to see Obama reelected, down from 42% in May and 40% in March. Where Obama held a slim 7-point edge among independent registered voters two months ago, a generic Republican holds an 8-point edge today.

This is consistent with a drop in Obama’s approval among all independents. Currently, a majority (54%) disapprove of Obama’s performance for the first time in his presidency. His approval among independents has slipped to 36% from 42% last month and 49% in late May. (See “Public Wants a Debt Ceiling Compromise, Expects a Deal Before Deadline.”)

Meanwhile, there is no greater clarity to the GOP nomination race. Only about a quarter of voters (24%) have given a lot of thought to their 2012 options. That rises to just 30% among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Overall, Romney continues to hold a significant lead among Republican voters: 21% say they would like to see him win the nomination. Rick Perry gets the support of 12%; 11% back Sarah Palin, 11% Michele Bachmann, 9% Ron Paul and 8% Herman Cain. No other candidate receives more than 3% of the support of Republican-oriented voters. Perry and Palin have not yet said whether they will run.

The race for the support of Tea Party backers is even more up-for-grabs, with five candidates (Romney, Perry, Bachman, Palin and Cain) all garnering the support of between 12% and 16%.

Perry Fares Well Among Most Attentive
While Texas governor Rick Perry is a relatively new name in discussions of the GOP race, he is drawing strong interest from highly attentive Republicans. Among Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters who say they have given a lot of thought to the candidates, 22% support Perry, 15% Romney, 13% Bachmann and 12% Cain.

And Perry’s lead is substantial among highly attentive Tea Party supporters. Perry has the backing of 29% of Republicans and Republican-leaners who agree with the Tea Party. That is nearly double the backing for the next closest candidate, Herman Cain (16%). The overall frontrunner, Mitt Romney, receives the backing of 11% of highly engaged Tea Party voters.

Tea Party Intensity Continues

Early signs suggest that Tea Party supporters remain the most engaged and committed segment of the Republican base. Republicans and Republican-leaning independent voters who agree with the Tea Party are more than twice as likely as other Republicans to have given a lot of thought to the 2012 election (44% vs. 18%). They also are much more likely to say they are very closely following campaign news (36% vs. 16%), and significantly more committed to voting in their state’s Republican primary or caucus next year (83% vs. 69%).

Some of these differences can be explained by the demographic profile of Tea Party Republicans. In particular, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who agree with the Tea Party movement are significantly older and more highly educated than those who do not (See table). But even when these demographic characteristics are taken into account, agreement with the Tea Party is strongly linked with campaign interest and commitment to voting.

Yet it is important to note that even among those who say they are very likely to vote in the 2012 primaries, only about half of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say they agree with the Tea Party movement. The other half either disagrees or has no opinion either way.

Bachmann the Most Visible Candidate
While not a clear frontrunner, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann is currently the most visible candidate in the GOP field. When asked what possible candidate they’ve heard the most about in the news recently, almost a quarter of Americans (23%) offer Bachmann’s name.

But candidate visibility has fluctuated widely over the past few months. In mid-June, Americans said they were hearing the most about former Romney (27%). Now, Romney rates second, with 13% saying they have heard the most about him recently. Just two months ago, Donald Trump and Newt Gingrich were the most visible candidates in the field.

Rick Perry has the support of many highly-engaged Republican voters, but his public visibility remains limited. Just 3% of Americans – and the same percentage of Republicans and Republican leaners – say he is the potential candidate they have been hearing the most about. Similarly, fewer than 1% cite Herman Cain as the candidate they have been hearing the most about recently.

Has Press Coverage Been Fair?

While Bachmann has been in the news a great deal recently, there is no impression that news coverage of the Minnesota representative has been too tough. Nearly four-in-ten (37%) say recent press coverage of Bachmann has been fair, 16% say it has been too tough and 16% say it has been too easy. Roughly three-in-ten Republicans and Republican leaners (29%) say the press has been too tough on Bachmann, but about as many (34%) say it has been fair.

A larger plurality sees coverage of Mitt Romney as fair (45%). Just 9% say recent coverage has been too tough, while 16% say it has been too easy. Republicans express similar views: 48% of Republicans and Republican leaners say coverage of Romney has been fair, with about as many saying the press has been too easy on him (17%) as too tough (13%).

The public is more deeply divided in views of how the press covers Sarah Palin. Currently, only 32% say press coverage has been fair, but there is no consensus on what the bias is: 30% say it has been too tough and 22% say it has been too easy. As has been the case all the way back to the 2008 election, perceptions of how the press treats Palin are deeply polarized along partisan lines. Roughly half (52%) of Republicans and Republican leaners say news organizations are too tough on Palin, compared with just 15% of Democrats and Democratic leaners. Democrats are about three times as likely as Republicans (35% vs. 10%) to say the press is too easy on her.

Obama’s Obstacles, Advantages

Obama’s reelection support is well behind the 10-point lead George W. Bush held over a generic Democratic candidate at a comparable point in 2003. Bush enjoyed a substantially stronger approval rating in July 2003 (58% vs. 44% currently for Obama), yet his support was also slipping. By October of that year, a Pew Research Center survey found him running even against a generic Democratic candidate (42% to 42%), as Obama is today.

Bill Clinton was also running about even against a generic Republican candidate in the summer of 1995, though Pew Research Center polling in that year included the option of preferring an independent candidate. That was the choice of 23% of voters at that time. Obama’s overall approval rating, at 44%, is comparable to Clinton’s in the summer of 1995.

In late 1991 George H. W. Bush also ran even against a generic Democratic candidate, despite a fairly solid 55% approval rating at the time. With economic conditions in the nation quickly souring, his standing quickly fell. By February of 1992, as the Democratic primaries that would ultimately select Bill Clinton were underway, Bush trailed a generic Democratic candidate by 10 points.

But by most measures Barack Obama faces a more somber public mood and a more troubled economy than did any of these previous presidents. With just 8% saying the national economy is in excellent or good shape and only 38% rating their personal finances positively, economic assessments are as negative as they were for George H. W. Bush as he entered his reelection campaign. However, the current unemployment rate is much higher, and overall satisfaction with the state of the nation much lower, than was the case in late 1991.

One factor still working in Obama’s favor is a slightly wider advantage in party identification. Where registered voters were essentially divided between Republican and Democratic affiliations in 1991, 1995 and 2003, Democrats hold a six-point edge in party identification today, and a slightly slimmer four-point edge when the partisan leaning of independents is taken into account. Still, this lead is far slimmer than in 2008 when Obama won the presidency. At the end of George W. Bush’s presidency, Democrats held a substantial 12-point advantage in leaned party identification, which is down to just four-points today. (See “GOP Makes Big Gains among White Voters” for more on long term trends in party affiliation.)

Appendix

[Soul Crusher]

Obama @ Fundraiser: "We're Not Even Halfway There Yet" - "Change" Doesn't Mean Change Tomorrow ...
RealClearPolitics ^ | August 3, 2011 | RealClearPolitics
Posted on August 3, 2011 9:36:25 PM EDT by i88schwartz

"It's been a long, tough journey. But we have made some incredible strides together. Yes, we have. But the thing that we all ought to remember is that as much as good as we have done, precisely because the challenges were so daunting, precisely because we we were inheriting so many challenges, that we're not even halfway there yet. When I said 'change we can believe in' I didn't say 'change we could believe in tomorrow.' Not change we can believe in next week. We knew this was going to take time because we've got this big, messy, tough democracy," President Obama said at a campaign fundraiser in Chicago on Wednesday night.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...

[Soul Crusher]

Obama Adviser Admits: 'The Numbers Add Up to Defeat'


The politics of the debt fight were a drag for President Barack Obama, yanking his popularity to new lows. Here’s an even bigger drag: Obama emerges from the months-long fracas weaker – and facing much deeper and more durable political obstacles – than his own advisers ever imagined.

The consensus has been that for all his problems, Obama is so skilled a politician – and the eventual GOP nominee so flawed or hapless — that he’d likely be re-elected.

Don’t buy into it.

This breezy certitude fails to reckon with how weak his fundamentals are a year out from the general election. Gallup pegs his approval rating at a discouraging 42 percent, with his standing among independents falling nine points in four weeks.

His economic stats are even worse. The nation has 2.5 million fewer jobs today than the day Obama took office, a fact you’re sure to hear the Republicans repeat. Consumer confidence is scraping levels not seen since March 2009.

...Obama advisers acknowledge the challenges posed by the economy, but argue that voters will like his rescue of the auto industry, signing of Wall Street reform, championing of new restrictions on credit-card issuers, repeal of “don’t ask, don’t tell,” investments in clean energy and victory on insurance protection for people with preexisting conditions.

“We’re spending the year building infrastructure in the states to ensure that we can compete on the widest playing field possible in 2012,” said Ben LaBolt, press secretary for Obama’s reelection campaign. “We are evaluating potential pickup opportunities [like Arizona and Georgia], and believe there are many paths to victory.”

Privately, however, Obama’s team is concerned about the factors beyond its control, talking of an imminent need to retool their economic message and strategy heading into 2012. Absent the president’s ability to defy political gravity, one Obama adviser conceded, “The numbers add up to defeat.”


Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/60640.html#ixzz1U4hIF8Qu

[Soul Crusher]

Debt Deal Bounce for Obama? Not in Florida (Obama's nearly done and he knows it)
abc ^ | 8/4/2011 | Jake Trapper



Resolution of the debt ceiling crisis has not boosted President Obama’s approval rating or re-election support in the key 2012 battleground of Florida, a new Quinnipiac University poll has found.

Obama received a 44 percent job approval rating among registered Florida voters polled after the deal was announced, representing no change from just days before or a turnaround from a two-month slide in the Sunshine State.

A May survey by Quinnipiac found 51 percent approval of Obama overall in Florida, including 47 percent approval among independent voters. Today, just 33 percent of Florida independents approve of the way Obama has handled his job. The poll has a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.

Growing numbers of Florida voters also say Obama does not deserve re-election. Before the debt deal, support for a second Obama term was split evenly. After the deal, by a 50-42 margin Floridians say Obama should not continue in the job.


(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.abcnews.com ...

[Soul Crusher]

Liberal Pollster's Devastating Memo to Obama: Join the Tea Party
by  Wynton C. Hall
08/04/2011


http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=45290



If President Obama needed any more indication of how much his public support has eroded, he need look no further than a recent memorandum of sorts published in the New York Times by former President Bill Clinton​’s pollster, Stanley Greenberg​.  Listen to Greenberg, whose progressive polling firm partners with Clinton strategist James Carville​, advise Obama and Democrats on what his latest round of polls and focus groups reveal are their only hope to survive politically, given the current reality:

•“Voters in the developed world are turning away from Democrats, Socialists, liberals and progressives.”
•“Voters feel ever more estranged from government—and they associate Democrats with government.”
•“If they are to win trust, and votes, Democrats must show they are as determined as the Tea Party movement to change the rules of the game."
•“This distrust of government and politicians is unfolding as a full-blown crisis of legitimacy [and] sidelines Democrats and liberalism."
•Greenberg says that his public opinion research now reveals that voters believe, “Government rushes to help the irresponsible and does little for the responsible."
•To win, Democrats must “advocate policies that would control the borders and address problems of undocumented workers,” and voters want to “see strong enforcement at the border and in the workplace, and the expulsion of troublesome undocumented immigrants."
•“Finally, progressives have to be serious about reducing the country’s long-term deficits” because “the deficit matters to people and has real meaning and consequences.” 
To recap, after analyzing his reams of public opinion research, President Clinton​’s pollster just advised the most progressive President in American history to mimic the Tea Party’s resolve, stop government from rewarding the irresponsible over the responsible, crack down on illegal immigration and get tough on border enforcement, stop illegal immigrants from being hired over legal citizens, and deport violent or law-breaking illegal immigrants, and to top it all off, Obama and the Democrats should stop the government’s profligate spending spree and bring down deficits.
 
Crickets chirping.
 
In sum, to have any shot of surviving the political onslaught of the rage roiling in the land, the leftist pollster, writing in the New York Times, has just pleaded with Obama to morph himself into a Tea Party conservative.
 
Whatever one thinks of Greenberg’s progressive political views, he is a seasoned and accomplished pollster who, along with James Carville, Dick Morris, Paul Begala​, George Stephanopoulos​ and others, successfully navigated Bill Clinton to two presidential victories.  Put simply, Greenberg knows of which he speaks.  And what his soundings reveal spells potential disaster for Democrats heading into the next election cycle. 
 
Why?  Because the more Obama and Democrats attempt to tack back to the political center, the deeper the erosion will be among their progressive base.  Indeed, already, Obama has seen sizable losses in support among his liberal base, and there are already signs that Obama’s backers may be experiencing “donor fatigue.”
 
Recall again that Bill Clinton’s reelection was made possible when Dick Morris urged him to sign the Republican’s welfare reform bill so that he could “end welfare as we know it,” as Clinton famously put it.   
 
It’s hard to imagine Obama willfully undergoing a similar course correction and advocating and passing the kinds of center-right policy proposals Greenberg’s polls and focus groups demonstrate the voting public demands.  Indeed, given the disenchantment among his progressive base, along with the economic free fall black Americans are presently suffering as the nation witnesses the disappearance of the black middle class, every inch that Obama’s campaign dares to move to the center will further infuriate and alienate the dwindling vestiges of support he presently enjoys among his progressive base.
 
Much can and will change between now and November 2012.  However, when a successful Democratic strategist all but urges the most far Left president in American history to don a three-cornered hat and join the Tea Party policy parade of fiscal discipline and border enforcement, you know there’s serious trouble in progressive paradise.

[Soul Crusher]

Yikes! Look who just endorsed Obama for 4 more years
WorldNetDaily ^ | August 03, 2011 | Aaron Klein



It may be early in the campaign season, but the Communist Party USA already has seen fit to endorse Barack Obama for the 2012 election.

While noting he is disappointed with "some aspects" of the Obama administration's domestic and foreign policy, Sam Webb, chairman of the Communist Party USA, threw his support behind Obama's re-election bid.


In an article last week at People's Weekly World, the official newspaper of the Communist Party USA, Webb discussed the need for a third party consisting of the so-called working class and labor as well as "racially and nationally oppressed people, women, youth, immigrants, seniors, gay and straight."

Read more: Yikes! Look who just endorsed Obama for 4 more years http://www.wnd.com/?pageId=329449#ixzz1U690m683






(Excerpt) Read more at wnd.com ...

[Soul Crusher]

Free Republic
Browse · Search   Pings · Mail   News/Activism
Topics · Post Article
Skip to comments.

Fla. says n'O' way to Bam 2 Poll's big swing against prez
NY Post ^ | Aug. 5, 2011 | GEOFF EARLE
Posted on August 5, 2011 11:53:09 AM EDT by COUNTrecount

WASHINGTON -- President Obama got a rude awakening on his birthday from the swing state of Florida, where a new poll showed that half of voters don't think he should be re-elected.

By a 50-42 percent margin, voters in the Sunshine State who were questioned after the debt deal was announced don't believe Obama should get a second term, according to the Quinnipiac University poll released yesterday.

In an even bigger jolt on his 50th birthday, the poll of 743 registered voters found Obama in a 44-44 tie with the leading Republican presidential candidate, Mitt Romney.

Before the debt deal was announced, Obama led Romney 46-41 in the same poll.

In May, the president's prospects in Florida were even better, with a 51 percent approval rating, compared with 43 percent who disapproved of the job he's doing.

And it gets worse among voters in Obama's new age group, those 50 and older, a key voting bloc in Florida.

Among older voters, only 35 percent approved of the job Obama is doing and 60 percent disapproved.

"If his numbers are like this a year from now, he's got a big problem," said Peter Brown, who conducted the poll.

Brown pointed out that Obama's numbers in Florida have gone south in the last two months.

"The debt-ceiling deal is not making any difference in that decline and any bounce he got from the bin Laden operation is long since gone," said Brown.

"The president's drop-off is huge among independent voters who now disapprove almost 2-1."

(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...

[garebear]

You've almost got me convinced.

If you could just post twenty thousand more articles................ ....

[Soul Crusher]

2012 Election Polling Data: Obama Above 50% in Just 11 States
Life News ^ | August 8, 2011 | Steven Ertelt



With the U.S. economy in dire straits, the re-election and approval data for pro-abortion President Barack Obama doesn’t look good — as new Gallup information shows the president under 50 percent in all but 11 states.

According to six months of Gallup polling, Obama eclipses the 50 percent mark in just 11 states and the District of Columbia. Added together, the states and the nation’s capital district would net Obama just 173 of the 270 electoral college votes he would need to win re-election to another four-year term.

The data Gallup released today is a state-by-state look at more than 90,000 interviews dating back to January of this year and, given the current poor state of the economy and the fact that poling data from Gallup recently showed him at his lowest levels historically, the analysis is likely worse than Gallup indicates when it includes older numbers. In January, Gallup rated Obama at a 49-45 percent approval rating and that has dropped to 42-50 percent today.

The 11 states that favor Obama include the New England and Northeast states (other than New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island), Illinois, Minnesota and California.

“Obama’s support is greatest in the East, with 8 of his 10 highest approval ratings occurring in states located in the Northeast or Mid-Atlantic region of the country. The 2 non-Eastern states ranking among the 10 highest are Obama’s home states of Hawaii and Illinois,” Gallup noted. “States giving Obama his lowest approval ratings are more varied regionally, with several in the West but also including Southern and Midwestern states.”

“As President Obama prepares for his re-election bid next year, his approval ratings nationally and at the state level bear watching. Typically, presidents with approval ratings above 50% get re-elected, though George W. Bush won re-election in 2004 with a 48% approval rating at the time of the election,” Gallup noted. “Thus, a key for Obama is to try to push his national approval rating back above the 50% mark before November 2012, and to have it at or above that level in as many states as possible, given that the presidential election will be determined by the winner of the greater number of state electoral votes.”

Including the historic data, Obama has a 50%+ mark is just 16 states and D.C., netting only 215 of the 270 electoral votes needed for election. To win re-election, he would need to capture Iowa, Pennsylvania, Florida and Georgia, states where he enjoys a 47-49 percent approval rating.

The picture is likely more bleak for Obama as Gallup only measured adults, rather than registered or likely voters. Doing so, which gives a more accurate picture of the election landscape, would provide a more favorable picture for Republicans and a bleaker one for the abortion advocate.

Obama hit a 50 percent disapproval level in Gallup’s survey just once — in August 2010 — and his approval rating has never dropped to 40 percent before.

The Gallup survey follows a late July poll of 1,500 registered voters by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press that finds support for Obama among independents has fallen from 42 percent in May to 31 percent while his disapproval with them has shot up to 54 percent.

“The sizeable lead Barack Obama held over a generic Republican opponent in polls conducted earlier this year has vanished,” Pew said. “Currently, 41% of registered voters say they would like to see Obama reelected, while 40% say they would prefer to see a Republican candidate win in 2012. In May, Obama held an 11-point lead.”

The Pew survey finds while the 11 point lead over a generic Republican, which Obama had in May after the death of Osama bin Laden, Republicans are still not focused on his replacement as just 24 percent have given much thought to their 2012 options. Overall in the GOP race, Mitt Romney continues to hold a significant lead among Republican voters with 21%, followed by Rick Perry at 12%, Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann at 11%, Ron Paul at 9% and Herman Cain at 8%.

Still, the survey finds just 31% of independent voters want to see Obama reelected, down from 42% in May and 40% in March. Where Obama held a slim 7-point edge among independent registered voters two months ago, a generic Republican holds an 8-point edge today. This is consistent with a drop in Obama’s approval among all independents. Currently, a majority (54%) disapprove of Obama’s performance for the first time in his presidency. His approval among independents has slipped to 36% from 42% last month and 49% in late May.

[tu_holmes]

With the economy in it's current state, even I have to admit, it's going to be hard for him to get re-elected.

If you keep Bachmann and Palin off the ticket, I'd say he just loses.

If you go Ron Paul, I say he gets demolished.

[Soul Crusher]

[garebear]

I bet you went nuts without spewing your hate for so long.

Were you doing posting drills on other websites just to keep your touch?

[Soul Crusher]

Lmao.

[Soul Crusher]

Source: AP News


WASHINGTON (AP) -- More than a dozen trade unions plan to sit out the 2012 Democratic convention because of their anger over the site of the meeting in a right-to-work state and their frustration over Democrats' struggles to create jobs.

If unions don't participate, it would deprive the party of millions of dollars that would have been spent on sky boxes and other sponsorships that usually help underwrite the convention. The move could pose a larger problem for President Barack Obama next year if an increasingly dispirited base of labor activists becomes so discouraged that it doesn't get the rank-and-file to the polls in its usual strong numbers.

The unions - all part of the AFL-CIO's building and construction trades unit - told party officials this week they are gravely disappointed that labor was not consulted before Democrats settled on Charlotte, N.C., where there are no unionized hotels.

"We find it troubling that the party so closely associated with basic human rights would choose a state with the lowest unionization rate in the country due to regressive policies aimed at diluting the power of workers," Mark Ayers, president of the building trades unit, wrote in a letter to Democratic Chairman Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

snip

Read more: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_DEMOCRATIC_CO...

[Soul Crusher]

Its coming! 

[Soul Crusher]

Obama below 40 on gallup! 

Wait till voters see him partying in cape cod.