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Pakistan
Pakistan and Osama bin Laden: How the West was conned
The ISI and its covert support of Islamist terrorism must be confronted
Powers in Pakistan: Gen Pervez Kayani, the head of the army, and Maj Gen Ahmad Shuja Pasha, head of the ISI, photographed in 2008 Photo: AFP
By Praveen Swami 10:01PM BST 03 May 2011
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In December 1979, at the end of a meeting in which Pakistan decided to embark on a United States-backed, Saudi Arabia-funded secret war that could well have ended in its annihilation by the Soviet Union, the military dictator who ruled Pakistan offered his spymaster a Zen-like maxim. "The water in Afghanistan," Gen Mohammad Zia-ul-Haq told Lt Gen Akhtar Abdul Rehman Khan, the director general of the Inter Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI), "must boil at the right temperature."
Ever since 9/11, the ISI has been seeking to keep the jihad inside Afghanistan and Pakistan warm, nurturing allies it gave birth to in the years after that meeting, while also joining the West's war against terror – the source of billions of dollars in aid and military patronage.
But Osama bin Laden's killing may mark the point where the water boiled over – destroying Pakistan's relationship with the West, and setting off a chain of events no one can predict.
Irrespective of whether bin Laden was being sheltered by the ISI or merely succeeded in evading its ineffectual counter-terrorism efforts, the challenge for Western policymakers is stark: it has become clear the ISI isn't willing or able to act against jihadists operating from its soil. Even though it is unwise to underestimate the incompetence of south Asia's under-funded, ill-trained police and intelligence services, it is hard to imagine that Pakistan's spies did not investigate just who was building a $1 million fortified complex a few hundred yards from the Pakistan Military Academy at Kakul – a potential target for Pakistani jihadists who have claimed the lives of thousands of soldiers. Bin Laden's neighbours have said the house was protected by closed-circuit cameras; that neighbours were never allowed in; that the rubbish was disposed of by burning – all of which ought to have attracted the attention of even the most indolent spies.
Last year, though, when CNN reported that bin Laden was probably living in Pakistan – the latest in a string of similar reports – Pakistan's foreign ministry insisted the claims were "baseless", and "put out to malign" the country. Back in 2009, Asif Ali Zardari, Pakistan's president, even claimed to have it on good authority that bin Laden was dead.
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For years, US intelligence officials have complained that Pakistan has been playing a "double game": co-operating with some elements of Western counter-terrorism efforts, while stopping short of decisive action against the jihadist movement. History helps understand just why that game was played.
After Gen Zia-ul-Haq's mysterious death in 1988, Pakistan developed what Hussain Haqqani, now his country's ambassador to the United States, has called "military rule by other means". The scholar Hasan Askari Rizvi has shown that the new system revolved around the army's collegium of commanders, who emerged as the pre-eminent institution of state.
The ISI played a key role in this set-up. Since independence in 1948, Pakistan's covert services have had an unusually important role, faced as the country was with a conventionally superior adversary to its east. In 1947-48, tribal insurgents backed by Pakistani military officers came close to seizing all of Kashmir. Later, in 1965, a more structured version of the enterprise was attempted, using Pakistani military formations. Pakistani intelligence strategists hoped this campaign – which Jawaharlal Nehru, India's first prime minister, described as an "informal war" – would open up religious and ethnic fissures, leading to the disintegration of their gargantuan adversary.
Pakistan also sought to undermine ethnic-Pashtun nationalism, which Afghanistan used to lay claim to its north-west. It cultivated Islamists exiled by Afghan Gen Muhammad Daoud Khan's secular-nationalist regime, and in July 1975, even financed an attempted coup against Daoud Khan by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the future Mujahideen leader.
Much of this doctrine was learnt in US military schools, where Pakistani officers studied the lessons of guerrilla warfare. But where America sought to prevent such wars, the scholar Stephen Cohen has pointed out, Pakistan studied these "in terms of launching a people's war against India".
Pakistan was thus ideally placed to aid the anti-communist jihad in Afghanistan, and the welter of groups it spawned to fight this campaign ended up becoming allies. In the wake of 9/11, though, it was forced to change course: the former president Musharraf has, in his memoirs, recalled being told that Pakistan would have to side with the United States, or risk being bombed back into the Stone Age.
So, what is it that Pakistan's army now wants? In 2008, when he took charge in what was a de facto coup by Pakistan's generals against their own commander-in-chief, Gen Pervez Kayani, the chief of army staff, was tasked with restoring the institution's political position, which in turn meant restoring order. His efforts brought Pakistan into conflict with America's geopolitical aims.
First, Gen Kayani sought to project influence in Afghanistan, hoping that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, as the Taliban calls itself, would act as an ally against jihadists operating against Pakistan. Figures like the Afghan jihadist leader Jalaluddin Haqqani, the ISI hoped, would temper the Pakistani jihadist coalition, called the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, in return for power. However, the Haqqani network was the most trenchant of the West's adversaries in Afghanistan, and the Tehreek-i-Taliban leader Muhammad Illyas Kashmiri, whom Pakistan fears confronting, is linked to al-Qaeda. Last year, the former Canadian diplomat Chris Alexander asserted that "without Pakistani military support, all signs are the Islamic Emirate's combat units would collapse".
Second, Gen Kayani took a hardline posture on Pakistan's traditional rival, India – a concession to domestic jihadists, who he hoped would again turn their attentions outwards. In 2008, America was reported to have confronted Pakistan's army with evidence that the ISI was involved in an attack on the Indian diplomatic mission in Kabul. Later that year, it is now known from the testimony of the Pakistani-American jihadist David Headley, the ISI facilitated the carnage in Mumbai, providing training and support for the perpetrators.
Key perpetrators of the operation, like its overall commander Sajid Mir and military architect Muhammad Muzammil Bhat, are still at large – and were not even named by Pakistani investigators before Mr Headley's revelations became public.
In recent years, though, the anti-India Lashkar-e-Taiba has also become a threat to the West. Experts like Steven Tankel have shown that its infrastructure has supported jihadist operations in Europe, Afghanistan and even Iraq. Its leader, Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, who is wanted for his role in the Mumbai attack, told a prayer congregation in the city of Lahore on Monday that bin Laden "was a great person who awakened the Muslim world". Not surprisingly, the ISI has been blocking the CIA's efforts to stamp out the Lashkar – leading to the recent showdown over Raymond Davis, a US intelligence official held in Pakistan earlier this year.
Finally, Gen Kayani sought to heal the rupture between Pakistan's army and jihadist allies like the Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi – one of the legacies of President Musharraf's last years in office.
Musharraf's decision to rein in the jihadists was a response to intense pressures from within the military. Lt Gen Moinuddin Haider, interior minister under Musharraf, was among a group of establishment figures who had
come to realise that Pakistan's patronage of jihadists, though tactically expedient, deterred investors and meant real costs to the country's economy. But while Musharraf cracked down on jihadists, notably by scaling back operations in Jammu and Kashmir, he failed to build an institutional consensus around these ideas – and, as his legitimacy eroded, he proved unable to make a decisive break with the past.
Bin Laden's likely successors – the Egyptian jihad veteran Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda's poet-warrior Abu Yahya al-Libi and organisational genius Saif-al-Adel – are all in Pakistan. Gen Kayani has made clear that he has no intention of moving troops into North Waziristan, where Muhammad Illyas Kashmiri's camps are training jihadists to target the West, and have demonstrated no will to go after al-Qaeda elsewhere.
For decades, Western governments have sought, in essence, to bribe Pakistan into a strategic alliance. Gen Kayani has made clear that Pakistan sees things very differently: the West's war against terror, in his view, has mired his country in an existence-threatening crisis, which the army wants out of. That is a choice neither the West, nor Pakistan's citizens, the principal victims of the jihadists on its soil,
can afford.
There are few good options from here: Pakistan and the West are entering a new and profoundly perilous stage in their relationship. Bin Laden's killing might be the end of one phase of the war on terror, but it is profoundly unlikely to be the beginning of peace.
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AcePilot101
11 minutes ago
I don't think Osama Bin Laden was hiding at the so-called mansion. It looks more like a prison to me, and maybe that's what it was - was Bin Laden under "house arrest" by the Pakistani intelligence services and military?
If that is true, did Obama know?
Pakistan is unlikely to object to what amounts to a US incursion into sovereign territory given the amount of aid that nation receives from the USA, UK and other NATO countries.
In other words, Osama was not hiding - he was hidden.
And given that he had been on dialysis for kidney failure and other medical issues, time was running out for the USA to capitalize on any credit for "capturing" the former head of Al Qaida.
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AntonyUK
Yesterday 10:20 PM
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1 person
You wait 10 years. 10 long years during which time a forest of varyious conspiracy theories bloom. Then, through an alleged series of activities and information accruals, the target is tracked. He is back on the radar. Almost a sitting target.
You carefully and cautiously prepare a plan. You enact a mock scenario of the target in his secret location.
You consult and discuss. You prepare time-lines.]
You determine the nature of the Operation.
You evaluate the options for manpower and logisitics.
You finalise the plan.
You issue the orders
The mission is go. The team swoop.
There, the target!
After ten years you know………absolutely KNOW THAT THE WHOLE WORLD WILL DEMAND PROOF that the quarry was captured and dealt with – they will at every corner of the globe want cast iron evidence of the target being caught – if death results they will, you know, at the very least want sight of the corpse. Not to produce that will be to ensure evermore conspiracy stories for all time. You MUST produce the evidence.
But the strike goes ahead. The elite, hand picked squad rush in . a firefight ensues. They are under orders to do the job. The target is unarmed! They can overpower him, continue the fight against his support group and still get away in the waiting choppers.
But no – they shoot him dead. They then take the corpse to an unknown location where it is photographed and washed. It is then taken by persons and methods unknown to a new location, unknown where the body.- the priceless evidence – is bagged and jettisoned in an unknown sea. For the fishes.
Good god, you really believe that? You really believe they would not preserve the evidence albeit temporarily!!
In that case, you will believe anything.
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wanderingone
Yesterday 11:54 PM
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1 person
Pardon this wide-eyed believer but why should they provide evidence that he's dead?
Parade the body and you create how many new Muslim lunatics, desperate for revenge for the 'insult'? (Have you seen what these people do in response to a cartoon?)
Show photographs and every conspiracy-theory nutcase (and there's plenty writing here) will say it's photoshopped.
Believe it or not, the US government may not give a monkey's behind if you believe Osama's dead or not.
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aptitude
Yesterday 10:15 PM
Christ I worry that sometimes I go over the top with my comments but after reading the posts on this subject I feel like a village priest, talk about extreme . I'm becoming convinced most people are mentally ill and possibly that including me, which is a little worrying :-)
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Sonny Ofthemeek
Yesterday 10:06 PM
Osama Bin Laden’s Death was Posted April 1 and 5, 2011 by “THE MEEK” on the following web pages:
http://ulocal.wpbf.com/service...
http://sonnyofthemeek.wordpres...
http://
www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dMBKV...
Also on
Sonny Ofthemeek - face book page and my Dream Page on OWN network
The only error was I thought he was in a bad bad place- sometimes close enough is a win. Please call for more info, thank you.
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oldmaid
Yesterday 08:46 PM
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3 people
Informative article. Interesting that a Pakistani Intelligence General is under the impression that both the US and UK have been aware that Bin Laden has been in the Pakistani for six years...
http://rss.infowars.com/201105...
Meanwhile back in the UK, MSM have been concentrating on the Royal wedding and now this, but funny old thing ne'er a mention of the €78 billion bailout deal has been struck with Portugal...?
http://www.spiegel.de/internat...
'Good day(s) to bury bad news'...
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Matthew Stevens
Yesterday 07:15 PM
check out
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timaction
Yesterday 07:10 PM
Recommended by
23 people
The Tories have no mandate to take money from me (or borrow more for our grandkids to repay) and other tax payers to give it to his foreign causes. Whether it be the £10 billion net to the EU to improve their infrastructure and pay farm subsidies, its £9 billion annual administration costs to our businesses to implement its directives/laws, the £10 billion to foreign aid and rising (£650 million to build schools in Pakistan), allowing continued mass immigration (nothing changed yet) to clog up our infrastructure and public services and we're broke. We're borrowing to support loads of foreigners. Politicians just don't get it or care. Thgey don't understand National interest, just personal interest. UKIP is the only solution.
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orangepekoe
Yesterday 09:23 PM
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3 people
timeaction
Maybe we should be putting a poster up at every school and hospital front door.
'Stop giving £650million to Pakistan and give it to us instead!
After all it is OUR money!'
OP
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jebbersisback
Yesterday 06:51 PM
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3 people
Well, if the americans think they can invade a country and murder an unarmed man, they no doubt think they can do the same anywhere.
We should tell the americans that if they do the same thing here, we will nuke them. 300 million americans are not worth the life of a single Briton.
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wanderingone
Yesterday 11:47 PM
I recommend you look up the definitions of 'invasion' and 'incursion'.
Trust me, it will help you in future posts.
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soysauce
Yesterday 09:36 PM
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4 people
Shut up jebber, he died a snivelling coward, you should save your faux sympathy for the thousands of young children his money was used to indoctrinate as suicide bombers, the unbelievably cowardly use of mentally handicapped people as human bombs detonated by remote from a safe distance in arab, yes arab markets killing brother muslims. As for America after sending hundreds of thousands of their fine young men to die on the battlefields of europe in 2 world wars, I for one would not hesitate to respond to their call if ever needed.
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dawgbyte
Yesterday 07:52 PM
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6 people
Are you serious? Why would America do such a thing. Wake-up from your delusional nightmare.
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hauptmann_dachs
Yesterday 07:32 PM
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1 person
Don't be silly. He got his, and they've left us Ghadaffi as a consolation prize!
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soysauce
Yesterday 06:46 PM
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21 people
It seems to me after their duplicitous behaviour and rank theft of aid, how can we be anything other than in a state of war with Pakistan, would 7/7 ever have happened without the ISI,Bali or any of these atrocities? if anything they should be paying compensation to the victims not us throwing £650m at their ...."education programme" Bollocks!
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truthseekers
Yesterday 07:54 PM
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3 people
We seem to be forgetting it was the US/UK that destabilised this whole region in the first place - Am Islamist agenda against the Soviets - The seeds were planted by us decades ago and now they have grown up with an anti western agenda - The CIA call it blow back - The unintended consequences of previous actions - We are so arrogant in the west - We create these problems in other country's but take none of the responsibility when it blows up -
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The Slog
Yesterday 06:46 PM
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2 people
I think we should also confront the fact that the SAS combed that very Abbotobad neighbourhood in 2006.
It seems highly unlikely they did this as a fun exercise.
OBL is dead, there can be little doubt about that. But this story is chiefly going to be about who knew what when, and who's on whose side.
Otherwise, why trash a $35 million Chinook copter?
http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/20...
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dipsplepskik
Yesterday 06:44 PM
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13 people
Not very long ago did we not see a comm0n facet of Pakistan's way of doing things. Even when playing cricket !!
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andarkian
Yesterday 06:09 PM
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34 people
The totally duplicitous behaviour of our politicians towards this terrorist state is not only naive it is insulting to the ordinary taxpayer of the United Kingdom. We can see with our very own eyes that this corrupt nation harbours, nurtures and encourages Islamic terrorism and terrorists from within its own borders. Yet we are expected to believe that the authorities had no idea Bin Laden had built an enormous compound only yards from a major military school. In addition we have given safe haven and free benefits to many Pakistani immigrants who have no intention of becoming part of our society and in fact preach hatred of our own norms and beliefs. To add insult to injury Cameron lobs the another £650 million for 'education'. Afghanistan's leaders have identified Pakistan as the leading exponent of terrorism in the world, as has India. Time for us to isolate ourselves from this nation and stop importing their ideologically incompatible, feudal detritus.
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dawgbyte
Yesterday 06:05 PM
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12 people
It's unfathomable Pakistan did not know bin Laden was located in that compound. You can't tell me 12' - 18' walls with barbed wire wouldn't draw suspicion from local leaders, or people at the military school an 1/8th of a mile away. If they didn't know, then the ISI must be the most incompetent intelligence agency in the world!
Here's a couple of interesting questions for everyone to ponder: The Obama administration has known about this compound since last August, why did it take this long to plan and approve the operation? Secondly, if Obama was President in 2004, when the courier lead was generated by the CIA, would we have killed OBL this past Sunday?
My answer is NO. As soon as Obama came into office he not only eliminated the CIA's ability to use enhanced interrogation methods and Eric Holder wanted to subpoenaed CIA Agents, who had been involved in the three waterboarding incidents. Brilliant idea! NOT.
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alanbutler79
is that in order to keep