Obama's Post-Osama Poll Numbers

[Dos Equis]

He's in some serious trouble. 

[Dos Equis]

Gallup: Obama Approval Hits All-Time Low of 39%
Sunday, 14 Aug 2011
By Newsmax Wires

President Barack Obama’s approval numbers have hit an all-time low, falling below 40 percent for the first time in Gallup’s daily tracking poll. New numbers that Gallup posted today put the president’s approval at 39 percent, compared with 54 percent disapproval.

Obama’s approval rating has been nestled in the 40 percent range for much of this year, although it peaked at 53 percent in the weeks after U.S. forces killed Osama bin Laden, the Los Angeles Times noted.

The president’s ratings declined steadily during the debt-ceiling debate, finally falling below 40 percent in Gallup’s Aug. 11-13 tracking.

“The polling setback comes as the Republican race to unseat him has kicked into overdrive,” noted the Times, which noted that his three-day Midwest bus tour starting Monday aims to blunt Republican attacks.

http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/Obama-gallup-approval-president/2011/08/14/id/407248

[Fury]

180 will tell you that there's nothing to worry about. 

[Soul Crusher]

According to 180 obama is better than tj, gw, etc.

[Dos Equis]

He'll get another bump from the Osama movie in October 2012, but will take a beating when the Supreme Court tosses the individual mandate in Obamacare.  

[Fury]

He'll get another bump from the Osama movie in October 2012, but will take a beating when the Supreme Court tosses the individual mandate in Obamacare.  

He's not going to get much of a bump from that. October is a very down movie month and a movie about Osama isn't going to change that. There's a reason you never seen blockbusters released in October. It's too late for the summer movie rush and too early for the big Oscar-type productions to come out.

It'll do about $20 million and be forgotten by election day.

[Dos Equis]

He's not going to get much of a bump from that. October is a very down movie month and a movie about Osama isn't going to change that. There's a reason you never seen blockbusters released in October. It's too late for the summer movie rush and too early for the big Oscar-type productions to come out.

It'll do about $20 million and be forgotten by election day.

I agree about the overall timing for movie release purposes.  I'm not saying this will help him ride to reelection.  It will help his popularity a bit, but the economy is so screwed up he will still lose.  He has shown himself to be a completely ineffective leader. 

[Soul Crusher]

He is not trying to be a leader.  He is trying to collapse the nation. 

[MCWAY]

He'll get another bump from the Osama movie in October 2012, but will take a beating when the Supreme Court tosses the individual mandate in Obamacare.  

By the time that movie hits, he could be in the 20s.

Besides, the left will have the fun task of explaining why they castigated Bush for even mentioning 9/11, during his re-election campaign, while they try to use Bin Laden's death to save Obama's hide.

[Soul Crusher]

It won't phase them, they will try anything at all to save this disaster they put in to office. 

Funny too - since these pieces of garbage still blame bush, will they do so if there is a recovery? 

[Soul Crusher]

August 15, 2011
At 39%, Obama's Reminded the Worst Could Lie Ahead
By David Paul Kuhn



There it was: 39 percent. Floor broke. Threshold crossed. The close of Barack Obama’s awful week. One more awful August. On Sunday, for the first time of his presidency, Obama’s public approval rating dipped below 40 percent in the Gallup Poll.

Now polls are like life. The older one becomes, the less remarkable the ebbs and flows become. Or the longer the trend line, the smaller the blips seem. But some poll numbers capture more. Gallup has an innate symbolism. As gold standards do. And 39 percent is emblematic of that oldest incumbent problem: selling hard times.

The poll bookends an historically bad week. The atmospherics presidents dread. There is the mercurial stock market, trending more down than up. Last week, consumer sentiment hit its lowest point since the dusk of Jimmy Carter’s presidency.

The Carter-Obama comparison is as cliché as it is disconcerting (for Democrats). Carter’s undoing can be cast as rare. Lyndon Johnson would surely have lost in 1968. But he did not run. Carter was the first Democratic president defeated since … 1888.

Every presidential campaign is a rerun of the past. Just as every reelection campaign is a referendum on the present. In 1888, Republicans’ previous nominee, James Blaine, aided the current GOP nominee, Benjamin Harrison. Blaine hit hard: “The Democratic Party in power is a standing menace to the prosperity of the country.”

Today’s messages are distilled for a bumper sticker world. Mitt Romney’s motto: “Obama isn’t working.” So the playbook instructs. Bad times. Keep the heat on the incumbent. Thumbs up or down. Never mind me. He isn’t working. “It is time to get America working again,” said the newcomer to the 2012 race, Rick Perry, in his announcement last week. So we recall Ronald Reagan’s knockdown question. “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”

Standard & Poor’s first downgrade of U.S. debt begs that political attack. It’s like the 39 percent mark. The fact alone is small. What it evokes is not.

But let us save the White House its talking points. The election is not tomorrow. Polls can also rise. The 2010 electorate (whiter, older) is not the 2012 electorate (browner, younger). There’s the fact every White House favors: incumbent candidates won nearly three of every four contests since the Civil War. The eventual Republican nominee will seek a referendum. Challengers do in hard times. But Obama will do what incumbents do. Attack the alternative. Frame the challenger as too small for the task.

Obama has some rotten campaign frames to choose from. “It could have been worse.” The counter-factual rarely works. “You may think I’m bad, but he’s worse.” That can work.

“The life of every human being on Earth can depend on the experience and judgment and vigilance of the person in the Oval Office,” a Carter ad went. America was comfortable enough in Reagan’s judgment to vote against Carter’s.

That pitch sometimes does connect, however. George W. Bush won reelection in 2004 with a 48 percent approval rating. Romney is said to be Republicans’ strongest general election candidate. And maybe he is. But Romney begs Bush’s 2004 strategy. Presidential contests are contests between two characters and contests of character. I’ve long belabored this point. But Romney must fear it. The flip-flopper attack could break him.

But name a GOP contender, and you can prefigure the attack. Every candidate is vulnerable. Even superman had kryptonite. That brings us to Reagan, or how many recall him. (What would an analysis of GOP prospects be without referencing Reagan?)

It’s been said, since Reagan, that no GOP candidate is Reagan. But even Reagan was not yet Reagan. Not at this point in the cycle. Many mock Bachman’s gaffes and disposition (see the recent Newsweek cover). But any student of politics would remind us: they mocked Reagan too.

In 1979, candidate Reagan cited an absurdly fictional study that found “80 percent of air pollution comes not from chimneys and auto exhaust pipes, but from plants and trees.” Ted Kennedy quoted the line during his famous convention address. The dig earned rousing laughter from delegates. But we know who got the proverbial last laugh.

That’s what Obama’s 39 percent signifies. Republicans may not have to win it. But Obama is on track to lose it.

Tracks can change. He’ll bump back into the forties. And political junkies will watch every hard threshold for Obama, wondering, is it his worst times or a harbinger of worse times?

Pundits sometimes turn Obama’s frown upside down. How remarkable Obama’s numbers are! In these hard times. This was said when he was in the mid forties. It’s a misread of the physics of contemporary politics. We are in a hyper-partisan age. Democrats secure Obama’s floor. W’s approval never dipped below 50 percent among Republicans, even when only a fifth of independents and 5 percent of Democrats approved.

W’s approval rating did not fall to 39 percent until autumn 2005. Bill Clinton fell to 37 percent in his first term. But Clinton had a booming economy at his back by 1996. Obama surely will not.

Presidential elections are not, literally, national referendums. In 1888, the Democrat won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College. Yet national standing certainly counts.

No one number predicts presidential prospects. But if you must pick one, pick the presidential approval rating. There is a range where the floor gives out. There have been eleven campaigns since the Second World War. Only W won with an approval below 50 percent. Yet Gerald Ford lost in the same range. There's no magic number. But Obama must likely be in, at least, the high forties to win term two.

Does that mean he’s Grover Cleveland or Carter? It’s worth recalling how bad it got for Carter. His rating bobbed in the low thirties and high twenties in 1979. And Carter still made a race of it. Obama will too. The opponent will matter. Perhaps 39 percent matters most there. It affirms that the right candidate can beat him. Does that fertilize pragmatism? Maybe.

In 2004, Democrats worried they would pull a Democrat: snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They went pragmatic. John Kerry. And they lost. There’s no obvious prescription for Republicans. Some candidates deserve better odds than others. But most any candidate could win at 39 percent.

This White House has long ached for its political environment to improve. But the Gallup threshold also reminds us that, for Obama, it could still get worse.

David Paul Kuhn is the Chief Political Correspondent for RealClearPolitics and the author of The Neglected Voter: White Men and the Democratic Dilemma. He can be reached at david@realclearpolitics.com and his writing followed via RSS.

[Soul Crusher]

 

[Soul Crusher]

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Approval Index (-23) 16 AUG 2011
Rasmussen Reports ^ | August 16,2011



The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 19% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -23

[Soul Crusher]

Obama underwater in New Jersey (NY State Low Approval Rating Not an Outlier)
Hotair ^ | 08/17/2011 | Ed Morrissey




That poll showing Barack Obama underwater in New York may not have been an outlier after all. Quinnipiac finds Obama’s approval plunging neighboring — and nearly-as-blue — New Jersey. While Chris Christie’s numbers have rebounded a little, Obama’s have slid to a new low:

President Barack Obama is headed in the wrong direction as New Jersey voters disapprove 52 – 44 percent of the job he is doing, down from a 50 – 46 percent positive score June 21 and the president’s lowest score ever in the Garden State.

Again, the gender gap is huge as men disapprove 60 – 37 percent while women approve 51 – 44 percent. Turning thumbs down on Obama are Republicans 93 – 6 percent and independent voters 57 – 39 percent. Democrats approve 77 – 17 percent. …

New Jersey voters say 49 – 45 percent that Obama does not deserve to be reelected, but say 45 – 37 percent that they would vote for Obama over an unnamed Republican challenger in the 2012 presidential race.

The independent vote is a big issue, although perhaps not in New Jersey as much as elsewhere. Democrats enjoy a large advantage in registration in the Garden State. In 2008, exit polls showed Democrats comprising 44% of the vote, compared to 28% for Republicans and independents alike. Obama cruised to a 57/42 win in New Jersey while only getting a 51-47 split among independents — and a 14/85 among Republicans.

A big turnout of Democrats would still lift Obama to a win in New Jersey, but these numbers suggest that might be a little more difficult this time around. Obama won Democrats 89/11 in 2008 when Hope and Change still filled the air. He’s now down to a 77/17 in a deep-blue state — not bad, but indicative of a loss of enthusiasm. That indicates a loss of turnout, and a big reversal among independents could make the race close in New Jersey. That will have Democrats spending money in what is almost always a safe state on defense, which will prevent them from spending it in battleground states.

New Jersey would still be a long shot for Republicans in November 2012, but the sudden underwater status of his approval in two solidly blue states means that Obama will have to work harder than anyone thought necessary just to maintain traditional Democratic ground.

Update: This Survey USA poll in Portland, Oregon doesn’t bode well for Obama, either. In a deep-blue West Coast city like Portland, Obama’s favorability rating is … 41/45. Among independents, it’s 34/49, and it’s only 67/18 among Democrats. Obama manages to be underwater among both men and women, too.



________________________ __________________

Wow   

[Soul Crusher]

Bus Tour Bust: Obama’s Approval Drops Back Into 30s, Says Gallup
cnsnews.com ^ | 8-17-11 | Terrence P. Jeffrey




President Barack Obama’s politically charged but taxpayer funded bus tour through the Midwest turned into a bust yesterday with his approval rating dropping back to its all-time low of 39 percent in the Gallup poll.

Obama’s approval in the Gallup poll had first dropped into the 30s three days ago, hitting 39 percent just as he began his bus tour. Then it rose to 41 percent two days ago, before dropping back to its all-time low of 39 yesterday.

Tuesday’s bus tour was highlighted by Obama’s verbal encounter with Tea Party activist Ryan Rhodes at a townhall meeting in Decorah, Iowa. Rhodes wanted the president to tell him why Vice President Joe Biden had likened Tea Party activists to terrorists while the president was touting civility.

[Dos Equis]

The Bagdad Bob Bus Tour = fail. 

[Soul Crusher]

 

[Dos Equis]

Gallup: 71% Disapprove of Obama's Performance on Economy
Thursday, 18 Aug 2011
By Newsmax Wires

Americans’ disapproval of President Barack Obama’s handling of the economy has skyrocketed to an all-time high of 71 percent, according to a new Gallup poll.

The mark is tied with disapproval of the president’s handling of the federal deficit, and only slightly lower than the 65 percent who think he is bungling job creation, according to the Aug. 11-14 poll of 1,008 adults.

The economic disapproval is 11 points higher than it was when Gallup measured it most recently, in May, and well above the previous high of 63 percent in November. The 55 percent disapproval of his performance on Afghanistan is up 15 points since May.

The increasing angst about the president’s performance coincides with his declining overall job approval, which fell to an all-time low of 39 percent during the weekend, and inched back to 41 percent in this poll.

Similarly, Americans' satisfaction with conditions in the United States is tanking, with the 11 percent satisfaction that Gallup records in another poll released today hovering just four percentage points above the all-time low in October 2008.

In addition, the satisfaction poll found that 76 percent of Americans cite economic issues as the most important problem facing the country, the highest percentage since April 2009, according to the Princeton, N.J., polling giant.

The 11 percent satisfaction number is the lowest since December 2008, Gallup said. It represents a five-point drop from July and nine points since June.

“The dip is likely a response to the recent negotiations to raise the federal debt ceiling and continued concern about the national economy amid a volatile stock market,” Gallup’s analysis says. “The recent downing of a U.S. military helicopter in Afghanistan resulting in the deaths of 30 U.S. servicemen could also be contributing to Americans' glum mood.”

The results continue a long slump in national satisfaction, which has been below 30 percent since September 2009, below 40 percent since August 2005, and below 50 percent since January 2004, Gallup says. The historical average satisfaction rating since 1979 is 40 percent. The all-time high was 71 percent in February 1999.

Higher numbers of Democrats, at 19 percent, say they are satisfied than Republicans, at 9 percent, and independents, at 8 percent.

The most commonly mentioned specific problems are the economy in general, at 31 percent; unemployment or jobs, at 29 percent; and the federal budget deficit and federal debt, at 17 percent.

http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/Obama-Gallup-approval-economy/2011/08/18/id/407782

[Dos Equis]

Gallup: Latino Approval of Obama Plunges to 49%
Friday, 19 Aug 2011
By David A. Patten

Hispanic-Americans are souring on the Obama presidency, according to a Gallup poll that shows just 49 percent of them approve of his job performance.

That’s a huge decline since spring of 2009, when Obama registered the 85 percent approval among Latinos.

Since that high water mark, Obama’s job performance ratings with Hispanics has been sliding downward. It reached a nadir of 45 percent in late July but has made a slight comeback since then, according to CNSNews.com.

The survey was conducted before Homeland Security chief Janet Napolitano’s announcement Thursday that the department no longer will depart illegal aliens who meet certain criteria, such as attending school, having family members in the U.S. military, or who are primarily responsible for other family members’ care.

http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/obama-latino-approval-rating/2011/08/19/id/408007

[Dos Equis]

38 percent? 

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx




ONE AND DONE - GTFO 2012! 

[Dos Equis]

New CNN Poll: 65% give Obama thumbs down on economy
By: CNN Political Unit

Washington (CNN) - Only a third of all Americans approve of how President Barack Obama is handling the economy, according to a new national survey.

And with a CNN/ORC International Poll also indicating that more than three-quarters of the public say the country is in bad shape right now, there's little wonder why the president is getting such low marks.

According to the poll, released Wednesday morning, 28 percent of people questioned say things are going well in the country today.

"That may be a slight uptick from early August but it still represents a double-digit drop from earlier this year," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "And it's clear that economic jitters are a drag on President Obama's standing with the voting public."

Obama gets good marks for his handling of international issues. Six in ten approve of his handling of terrorism and roughly half like his track record on foreign affairs in general and Libya in particular.

And 53 percent say they trust Obama as the nation's commander-in-chief.

But only 34 percent approve of how the president is handling economic issues, with 65 percent saying they disapprove of how he’s handling the economy. Thirty-three percent give him a thumbs up on the budget deficit and 37 percent approving of how he's dealing with unemployment.

"Two-thirds of Democrats continue to approve of Obama's economic record, but seven out of ten independents disapprove. Not surprisingly, more than nine out of ten Republicans also disapprove of how Obama is handling the economy,” adds Holland.

According to CNN poll numbers released last week, the president's overall approval rating stands at 45 percent.

The CNN/ORC International Poll was conducted August 24-25, with 1,017 adult Americans questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

–CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/01/new-cnn-poll-65-give-obama-thumbs-down-on-economy/

[Dos Equis]

Poll: Obama Approval at All-Time Low
Thursday, 01 Sep 2011

U.S. voters say Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney would do a better job handling the economy than President Barack Obama and more Americans than ever think the president is doing a poor job, according to a new poll.

The Quinnipiac University survey found that 46 percent of voters favor Romney’s skills in recharging the economy, while 42 percent opt for Obama. At the same time, 52 percent disapprove of Obama’s job performance, compared with 42 percent who approve. In July, 46 percent in the poll disapproved of Obama’s job performance and 47 percent approved.

Obama plans to give a speech next week detailing plans to spur job growth. Improvement in the economy is the key to turning around views of his presidency, said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute in Hamden, Connecticut.

“The best news for the president is that voters still blame former President George W. Bush rather than Obama for the economy,” Brown said in a statement released by the university. “One can only imagine what Obama’s approval rating might look like if that ever changes.”

Almost half of voters surveyed said the economy is getting worse, compared with 11 percent who see it as getting better. That is a drop from a July Quinnipiac poll in which 32 percent said the economy was worsening and 23 percent saw improvement.

Voters do trust Obama on the issue more than they trust Republicans in Congress or Republican presidential candidate Michele Bachmann, a Minnesota congresswoman, the poll found. They were split when asked about presidential contender Rick Perry, the Republican governor of Texas.

The Aug. 16-27 poll found that 43 percent of the 2,730 registered voters surveyed favored Obama on the economy, compared with 41 percent who favored Perry. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 1.9 percentage points.

http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/BNCOPY-BNSTAFF-BNTEAMS-BUSINESS/2011/09/01/id/409399

[Dos Equis]

Obama's Disapproval Rating Hits 50 Percent, Poll Finds
Published September 17, 2011

NEW YORK –  President Barack Obama's disapproval rating has hit 50 percent for the first time since he took office, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll published late Friday.

The poll, conducted after Obama's economic address to Congress last week, shows worrying signs for the president, with 72 percent of Americans saying they believed the country was on the wrong track and more than half fearing the economy was either already in, or at least headed for, a double dip recession.

Obama's personal approval rating dipped to 43 percent, down from 48 percent in early August, while 57 percent of people disapproved of the way he is handling the economy.

With unemployment sitting at near ten percent, the issue of jobs overtook the economy as the most important problem facing the country. Thirty-two percent of respondents chose jobs as their most pressing issue, up from 26 percent in June.

Forty-eight percent of respondents said they were somewhat confident or very confident Obama's American Jobs Act would create jobs and improve the economy.

Still, more people disapproved of the way Republicans were handling their job in Congress than Democrats, with 72 percent of respondents disapproving of Republican lawmakers, compared to a disapproval rating of 63 percent for Democrats.

In the battle for the Republican presidential nomination, the poll found that 23 percent wanted to see Texas Gov. Rick Perry nominated, ahead of Mitt Romney on 16 percent. Newt Gingrich and Michele Bachmann were tied for third on seven percent.

The poll was based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 10-15 with 1,452 adults throughout the US. The margin of error was +/- three percentage points.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/09/17/obamas-disapproval-rating-hits-50-percent-poll-finds/

[Dos Equis]

Rasmussen Poll: 64% of Undecided Reject Obama
Monday, 19 Sep 2011
By Henry J. Reske

President Barack Obama’s disapproval rating among undecided voters has reached 64 percent. Among those who would prefer a third party candidate, Obama has an approval rating of 13 percent and disapproval rating of 87 percent, a new Rasmussen Reports poll shows.

“Put it all together, and the president earns approval from just 22 percent of those who currently are uncommitted to either a Republican candidate or Obama,” the Rasmussen poll analysis says. “Seventy-eight percent of this group disapprove. These figures include 3 percent who strongly approve of the president’s performance and 49 percent who strongly disapprove.”

Regardless, the survey of 3,000 likely voters between Sept. 10 and 15 found that 44 percent preferred Obama and 38 percent the Republican candidate. Ten percent wanted somebody else, and 8 percent are undecided.

When matched up against individual candidates, Mitt Romney polled slightly ahead of Obama, Texas Gov. Rick Perry trailed the president by seven points, and Rep. Michele Bachman trailed by double digits.

http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/Rasmussen-Obama-poll-disapproval/2011/09/19/id/411524

[dario73]

Rasmussen Poll: 64% of Undecided Reject Obama
Monday, 19 Sep 2011
By Henry J. Reske

President Barack Obama’s disapproval rating among undecided voters has reached 64 percent. Among those who would prefer a third party candidate, Obama has an approval rating of 13 percent and disapproval rating of 87 percent, a new Rasmussen Reports poll shows.

“Put it all together, and the president earns approval from just 22 percent of those who currently are uncommitted to either a Republican candidate or Obama,” the Rasmussen poll analysis says. “Seventy-eight percent of this group disapprove. These figures include 3 percent who strongly approve of the president’s performance and 49 percent who strongly disapprove.”

Regardless, the survey of 3,000 likely voters between Sept. 10 and 15 found that 44 percent preferred Obama and 38 percent the Republican candidate. Ten percent wanted somebody else, and 8 percent are undecided.

When matched up against individual candidates, Mitt Romney polled slightly ahead of Obama, Texas Gov. Rick Perry trailed the president by seven points, and Rep. Michele Bachman trailed by double digits.

http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/Rasmussen-Obama-poll-disapproval/2011/09/19/id/411524

This is huge if these poll numbers are accurate and if they carry into next year. There is no hope for Barry if this continues.