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Author Topic: Obama's Post-Osama Poll Numbers  (Read 3417 times)
Dos Equis
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« on: May 04, 2011, 11:21:49 AM »

My prediction is his numbers will crash again, unless we have a terrorist attack or a miraculous economic recovery.  So far, he got an 11 point bump.  Not bad, but nothing compared to Bush I or Bush II, both of whom hit about 90 percent after Gulf War I and 9/11.

The one person who really knows what will happen is El Profeta.   

Bin Laden death boosts Obama, fears of attack: polls
NEW YORK | Wed May 4, 2011

NEW YORK (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's job approval rating jumped 11 points to 57 percent after the killing of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, but Americans fear another attack, polls showed on Wednesday.

A New York Times/CBS News poll showed the bump in Obama's performance rating -- which it warned could be short-lived -- but also found that more than six in 10 Americans believed the threat of extremist attacks against the United States was likely to increase.

Bin Laden, who had become the face of Islamist militancy since masterminding the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, was shot in the head by U.S. forces who stormed his compound in Pakistan on Monday after a decade-long manhunt.

A separate USA Today/Gallup survey of 645 adults showed that 62 percent of Americans believe an act of terrorism is either "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to occur on U.S. soil within the next several weeks.

"The current results indicate Americans are slightly more likely to be worried about a terrorist incident occurring than they were shortly after the London bus and subway bombings in July 2005, but are less worried than at the start of the Iraq war as well as immediately after 9/11," Gallup said.

While fearful that a retaliatory attack could be imminent, 54 percent of those polled by USA Today/Gallup believed the country was safer in the longer term from terrorism.

About 40 percent of respondents in that poll said they were also a lot more confident that the United States can succeed in its "war against Islamic terrorism," while 34 percent said they were only a little more confident.

Nearly half of the 532 people polled in The New York Times/CBS poll said the United States should not decrease its troop levels in Afghanistan, where the hunt for bin Laden began in 2001. Obama plans to start a withdrawal of some U.S. forces from the unpopular war in July.

The bump in Obama's ratings may not last. The New York Times/CBS poll said that former President George W. Bush received an 8-point boost after the capture of Saddam Hussein in Iraq in 2003, but that bounce evaporated within a month.

Obama's popularity had been hurt by economic woes and high gasoline prices. Voters are expected to focus again on domestic concerns crucial to his 2012 re-election prospects.

More than half of respondents in the Times/CBS poll disapproved of Obama's handling of the economy, a similar result to last month's survey.

That poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points while the USA Today/Gallup survey is within 5 points.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/04/us-binladen-usa-polls-idUSTRE7433UI20110504
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« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2011, 11:32:43 AM »

Drudge announced the next day that Rassmussen saw no bump.

Getbiggers said he would get no bump.

So any new articles showing a bump must be faked.
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« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2011, 11:41:41 AM »

Drudge announced the next day that Rassmussen saw no bump.

Getbiggers said he would get no bump.

So any new articles showing a bump must be faked.

Which getbiggers made that claim?
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« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2011, 11:43:13 AM »

Which getbiggers made that claim?

the stupid ones
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« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2011, 11:55:19 AM »

Bwahahaha!  Funny morning.   Grin
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« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2011, 12:35:57 PM »

Flash in the pan at best.   
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« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2011, 12:53:05 PM »

Flash in the pan at best.   

This typically happens after a big military victory. Bush I and II got such a "flash" after their respective Iraq campaigns.

But, we all know what happened to Bush I. And Bush II's numbers plunged during his second term, saddling McCain with the baggage for 2008.
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« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2011, 04:04:31 PM »

the stupid ones
so you think he wouldnt see a bump?

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« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2011, 04:10:30 PM »

Its like taking a poll of what you think of your gf after she gives you a bj while watching a hockey game. 
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« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2011, 04:51:55 PM »

Drudge announced the next day that Rassmussen saw no bump.

Getbiggers said he would get no bump.

So any new articles showing a bump must be faked.

CNN didn't show much of a bump. Are they right-wing, too?
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« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2011, 04:54:19 PM »

This typically happens after a big military victory. Bush I and II got such a "flash" after their respective Iraq campaigns.

But, we all know what happened to Bush I. And Bush II's numbers plunged during his second term, saddling McCain with the baggage for 2008.
Fucked by Perot.
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« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2011, 06:23:39 PM »

It wasn't just Perot.  The economy tanked and he waited too long to try and do something about it. 
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« Reply #12 on: May 04, 2011, 06:27:26 PM »

It wasn't just Perot.  The economy tanked and he waited too long to try and do something about it. 

Perhaps, but he would have won if Perot hadn't run as an independent.
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« Reply #13 on: May 04, 2011, 06:32:51 PM »

Its like taking a poll of what you think of your gf after she gives you a bj while watching a hockey game. 


Take a poll of what you think of your gf after spending a weekend w her folks, her shopping, pms, not putting out, etc.


Same shit.   Bam a will be back to low 40's in a few weeks. 
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« Reply #14 on: May 05, 2011, 03:13:59 PM »

Perhaps, but he would have won if Perot hadn't run as an independent.

Not necessarily.  No guarantee that the Perot voters would have voted Clinton. 
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« Reply #15 on: May 05, 2011, 03:15:16 PM »

No big bounce here.  He's in real trouble. 

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Thursday, May 05, 2011

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 26% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Thirty-five percent (35%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -9 (see trends).

This is just a two-point improvement since bin Laden’s death, but it is the president’s best Approval Index rating in nearly three months. Some polls are suggesting a big bounce for the president from the bin Laden news, but those are generally comparing the president’s current numbers with results from about a month ago. Compared to a month ago, Rasmussen Reports polling shows that the president’s Approval Index rating has improved by seven points. Most of the gains occurred in the week before bin Laden’s death.

Eighty-six percent (86%) approve of the president’s decision to authorize the mission targeting bin Laden. Today, 53% give the president good or excellent marks for handling national security issues, up 14 points from a week ago. Concern about terrorist attacks is down slightly from last fall. Just 28% now see an attack as Very Likely over the coming year, down from 35% in November.

The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates are also available on Twitter and Facebook

Overall, 49% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove. Those figures have shown little movement since the news about bin Laden.
One reason for the limited short-term bounce may be that voters are more focused on the economy than national security issues. Currently, when given a list of five broad issues, 45% say that the economy is most important while only 6% name national security issues. Fiscal policy concerns and domestic issues are the top issue for 20% and 15% respectively. Cultural issues attract the same level of interest as national security issues.

. . . .

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
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« Reply #16 on: May 05, 2011, 03:16:39 PM »

lol @ rassmussen!
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« Reply #17 on: May 05, 2011, 03:16:49 PM »

Its like taking a poll of what you think of your gf after she gives you a bj while watching a hockey game. 

QFT  
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« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2011, 03:18:13 PM »

Its like taking a poll of what you think of your gf after she gives you a bj while watching a hockey game. 

LOL!
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« Reply #19 on: May 07, 2011, 10:37:17 AM »

10 Reasons Why the Death of Bin Laden Won't Help Obama In the Long Run
By Robert Maistros
Published May 06, 2011
FoxNews.com

The question already being widely asked by political junkies after the killing of Usama bin Laden: will the immediate bump in the polls for President Obama last? Should we, as "The View" co-host Joy Behar suggested Monday, “just skip the next election?”

The answer in a word: no. In fact, it’s easy to come up with ten reasons why:

1. Who Gets Credit? Within a couple news cycles, the airwaves were already buzzing with controversy over whether President Obama had taken too much credit for the success of the operation. His words were carefully chosen to create the impression that Bin Laden’s capture resulted from initiatives undertaken on his watch. Notably, two words that never passed his lips in assigning credit, among all the “I’s” and “my’s,” were “George Bush.”

Yet the big break in the Usama chase came four years ago, when detainees spilled the beans on the identity of one of bin Laden’s trusted couriers. Moreover, Central Intelligence Director Leon Panetta has acknowledged that valuable intelligence resulted from enhanced interrogation techniques (EIT).

Oops. In 2007, candidate Obama was harshly criticizing his predecessor’s policies on EIT as “an outrageous betrayal of our core values, and a grave danger to our security.”

The president repaired some of the damage by inviting his predecessor to visit Ground Zero. But his initial gracelessness in failing to share credit rapidly tarnished his aura.

2. It’s the Economy, Stupid. Past election cycles have demonstrated that, short of world war, short-term foreign-policy successes won’t overcome a prolonged economic downturn. Today’s headlines can’t obscure the prospect of $5 per gallon gas, rising food prices, continued high unemployment, a potential double-dip recession and trillions of dollars in deficit spending that will produce an extended budget battle.

3. Déjà Vu 1991: A veritable trove of commentators have already weighed in with an obvious parallel: in spring 1991, such leading presidential contenders as Mario Cuomo, Al Gore, Dick Gephardt, Bill Bradley and Jay Rockefeller were scared off by a foreign policy triumph that drove George H.W. Bush’s approval rates to stratospheric heights. A year later, they were kicking themselves when a much more modest recession rendered the incumbent eminently beatable – and Bill Clinton waltzed to the nomination.

4. Attacks from the Left: The very success of the Usama bin Laden initiative is already raising questions from the Moveon.org set. The White House is already on the defensive on how and why Bin Laden was killed, especially with its delayed admission that the terrorist was unarmed when he was assassinated. Plus the mission has already revived attention to his stepped-up use of drones and reversal on closing Guantanamo and led to calls from the left to expedite America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan.

5. Biting the Hand that Feeds Him: President Obama is exulting over an operation carried out by elite troops with expensive technology. Yet the president has called for severe defense cuts that outgoing Defense Secretary Robert Gates has pointedly warned could sap our military strength, and surveys suggest the repeal of "Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell" will result in the defection of exactly this kind of crack forces.

6. The Real Foreign Policy Story of Coming Months? Libya: The stealth story of the weekend was the bombing attack that allegedly killed Mummar Qaddafi’s son and three grandchildren. The obvious question – was this an attempted hit on the dictator? – underscores the reality that Libya is an expensive misadventure with no clear mission, leadership or end game that will increasingly fall into our laps as their own defense cuts stretch the French and British thin.

7. UBL Doesn’t Undo ObamaCare: The president’s greatest vulnerability becomes even more of an issue in 2012. More ObamaCare provisions will kick in, while premiums are projected to continue skyrocketing, and the Supreme Court’s ruling on the individual mandate will create a headache for the administration no matter how it comes down.

8. Culture Wars: Tracking down Bin Laden doesn’t change the fact that President Obama represents values far out of step with mainstream America’s. Also potentially on tap for next year are Supreme Court decisions on California’s Proposition 8 barring same-sex marriage and the Defense of Marriage Act – events that will blow the culture wars wide open again.

9. BHO, Tax-Hiker: The compromise President Obama closed with Republicans last year to avoid the expiration of the Bush tax cuts runs out in 2012, and the president has pledged he will not extend the cuts. Explicitly running as a tax-hiker has not proved a winning strategy in the past – just ask Walter Mondale.

10. Tea, Anyone? The Tea Party, conservative talk TV and radio and the blogosphere – though sharing in the celebration of Bin Laden's – will not give President Obama much breathing room.
Rush Limbaugh was openly mocking the president on Monday and conservative blogs are already re-airing familiar anti-Obama themes.

After 9/11, Democrats were back on the attack against George W. Bush within months. In this case, the president’s “honeymoon” is already waning after a few news cycles.
So my advice to prospective GOP candidates: take a deep breath, and keep focused on November 2012. These days, a week in politics is a lifetime.

Robert Maistros is a Republican strategist.

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/05/06/10-reasons-death-bin-laden-wont-help-obama-long-run/
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« Reply #20 on: May 09, 2011, 12:17:10 PM »

Hill Poll: Obama's bin Laden Bounce Will Fade Fast
Monday, 09 May 2011
By Dan Weil

Many Republican pundits have said during the past week that the jump in President Barack Obama’s approval ratings after the killing of Osama bin Laden is unlikely to last. American voters apparently feel the same way, according to a new poll from The Hill.

Obama, bin Laden, polls, the hillAs for the bin Laden bounce, A New York Times/CBS poll last week showed Obama’s approval rating surged 11 percentage points from two weeks earlier. And Gallup’s daily tracking poll showed Obama’s approval rating rose 6 percentage points right after the bin Laden takeout.

But now, almost 60 percent of American voters think the boost Obama received will disappear within three months, according to The Hill poll. Only 25 percent of respondents think Obama will still benefit from bin Laden’s death six months from now.

Those poll results indicate that the effect of the bin Laden killing on Obama’s re-election prospects might be small. Once the attention fades from bin Laden, the key issues for the 2012 campaign will be economic, according to The Hill.

Voters are obviously concerned about the weak job market, with unemployment at 9 percent. The rise in gasoline prices to more than $4 a gallon in some cities also worries them. And the $1 trillion-plus annual budget deficits as far as the eye can see remain an issue as well.

The unemployment rate is unlikely to drop drastically before Obama faces his fate in the polling booth. Moody’s Economy.com predicts an 8 percent unemployment rate at the end of 2012.

There is some irony here. The financial crisis helped solidify Obama’s victory in 2008, but the lack of a solid recovery could seal his fate next year.

http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/Obama-binLaden-Hill-poll/2011/05/09/id/395679
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« Reply #21 on: May 09, 2011, 01:23:27 PM »

Gallup: Bush Got Bigger Bounce for Catching Saddam Than Obama Got for Killing Bin Laden
CNSNews ^




Gallup: Bush Got Bigger Bounce for Catching Saddam Than Obama Got for Killing Bin Laden Monday, May 09, 2011 By Terence P. Jeffrey

(CNSNews.com) - President George W. Bush got a bigger bounce in his Gallup job approval rating for capturing Saddam Hussein than President Barack Obama got for killing Osama in Laden.

Obama got a 6-point bounce in his Gallup job approval after he announced that U.S. Navy SEALS had raided a compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan and killed al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. Bush got either a 7-point or a 9-point bounce—depending on the day you calculate from (Gallup used both figures)--after he announced that U.S. forces in Iraq had captured alive former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.

Obama’s approval rating was at 46 percent for the three-day period ending on April 30 and again for the three-day period ending on May 1. Late on Sunday, May 1, Obama announced U.S. forces had killed bin Laden. After that, Obama’s job approval climbed for three straight days, peaking at 52 percent for the three-day period ending on May 4.

That equaled the highest job approval Obama has received at any time in the past year.

“Americans' approval of President Barack Obama is up six points after the death of Osama bin Laden in a U.S. raid on the al Qaeda leader's Pakistan compound,” Gallup reported on May 5.

However, Obama’s post-bin-Laden approval remained at its 52 percent peak for just one day.


(Excerpt) Read more at cnsnews.com ...

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« Reply #22 on: May 09, 2011, 02:13:59 PM »

Obama's Osama Bounce Fading Fast
FOX Nation ^ | May 9, 2011 | Staff




Pew had found a 9-point Osama bounce (47% to 56%) last week. Today, Pew reports, two-thirds of that bounce is already gone. Obama's approval rating is already down to just 50%.


(Excerpt) Read more at nation.foxnews.com ...

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« Reply #23 on: May 09, 2011, 02:20:01 PM »

That is what happens when you can't present a coherent message
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ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
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« Reply #24 on: May 16, 2011, 01:17:46 PM »

Quote
Obama's Post-Bin Laden Bounce Disappears In Gallup Poll

The bump President Obama received after the killing of Osama bin Laden more than two weeks ago in Pakistan has vanished completely, according to the latest Gallup Tracking poll released Monday.


Obama's approval rating is now at 46 percent, equal to his approval rating in the last tracking poll conducted before Obama addressed Americans late on May 1 and informed them of bin Laden's death. Forty-four percent of Americans now disapprove of the job Obama is doing as president.


According to the Gallup poll, Obama's approval rating crested at 52 percent after the bin Laden killing. His disapproval rating never fell lower than 40 percent.

Obama's bounce is smaller in magnitude and shorter in duration than the bumps enjoyed by other presidents over the past 70 years, according to a study by Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies. For example, George W. Bush received a 15-point bump after the capture of Saddam Hussein in 2003 -- a bounce that lasted seven weeks.

The poll also comes the same day as Gallup announced that three in four Americans "name some type of economic issue as the 'most important problem' facing the country today -- the highest net mentions of the economy in two years. Those numbers, combined with Obama's fleeting boost, suggest the economy remains -- by far -- the dominant issue of the 2012 presidential campaign.

The Gallup poll was conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday, surveying 1,547 adults. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percent.


http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/05/obamas-postbin.php


Well, that was quick. And Bin Laden probably still has meat on his bones.
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