Here is the way Karl ROve breaks down the electoral math:
THe Republicans have already closed the gap from 2008 by 14 electoral votes because of reapportionment through the census.
Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina are traditional Republican states that OBama barely won in 2008. Before that, the last time a Democrat won those states was in the 60s and 70s. He wont win them this time. That's something like 39 electoral votes.
Florida and Ohio will be the two crucial states. They are worth many electoral votes. THey both went red in 2004 and then blue in 2008. Remember that the Dems got slaughtered in Florida in 2010. If the Republican Candidate can win both these states, he only needs one of 9 other battleground states to win the election. The other battleground states include New Hampshire, where Romeny is currently leading OBama, they also include New Mexico, Colorado, Pennsylvania, .