Are Obama’s Polls Worse Than Meet the Eye?

[MCWAY]

What say you?

Are Obama’s Polls Worse Than Meet the Eye?
By Stuart Rothenberg
Roll Call Contributing Writer
 
On their face, President Barack Obama's poll numbers are mediocre but not terrible. His 46 percent job approval in the June 15-19 Pew Research Center survey is far better than President George W. Bush's worst Pew Research Center job numbers, for example.

In March of 2006, Bush's job approval fell to 33 percent in Pew polling, and immediately before the 2008 elections, in late October, his job approval stood at 20 percent, while a stunning 70 percent disapproved. In December 2008, as he was about to leave office, Bush's job ratings stood at 24 percent approval and 68 percent disapproval.

In comparison with those numbers, Obama looks wildly popular.

But Obama continues to earn much higher marks, in part, because his base, including liberal Democrats and African-Americans, has been standing by him, which has tended to prevent his overall job approval numbers from falling as much as they otherwise might.

For example, while Obama's job approval in the Pew survey stood at 46 percent among all adults, it was 87 percent among African-Americans and 81 percent among liberal Democrats.

In comparison, the president's job approval stood at 77 percent among all Democrats, at just 42 percent among independents and at a weak 39 percent among white independents.

Bush couldn't count on the support of a group the way Obama can count on support among African-Americans, who have a strong incentive to see the president in a positive light.

Many of Bush's previously strongest supporters had turned on him by the time the final months of his presidency rolled around. In December 2008, for example, his job ratings among conservative Republicans stood at 66 percent approval and 25 percent disapproval. In comparison, Obama's disapproval among African-Americans was a minuscule 5 percent in the mid-June Pew Research poll.

Because that likely won't happen to Obama, his overall job numbers aren't as useful in understanding his political standing as Bush's were. With Obama, independent voters or even white voters, who still constitute close to three-quarters of the national electorate, provide a better measure of the president's political prospects than do his overall job approval numbers.

In the 2008 national exit poll, Obama won independents, 52 percent to 44 percent, over Republican nominee John McCain. In the recent Pew Research Center survey, only 42 percent of independents said they approved of the president's performance, while 46 percent disapproved.

Of course, all of the president's numbers could change between now and November 2012, but for now, they constitute a considerable problem for him, since independents are a key swing constituency and Obama's strong showing among swing voters was one of the most important reasons why he did so well overall and in key states such as Ohio and Florida.

Obama's problem is also apparent when looking at his standing among white independents. McCain narrowly won the group 49 percent to 47 percent. But in the Pew survey, only 39 percent of white independents approve of the president's job performance, while 51 percent disapprove.

The Pew survey has another interesting number that is worth noting.

The survey found that 46 percent of respondents think the economic condition of the economy is "poor," compared with 8 percent who said either "excellent" or "good" and 45 percent who said "only fair."

But if you look at the cross-tabs provided in the analysis, only 37 percent of Democrats said that the economy is poor, while 52 percent of Republicans picked that description and 50 percent of independents called it poor.

What's the deal? Are Democrats, who are often associated with more downscale voters, doing better in the current economy than Republicans and independents? That's unlikely.

The more logical answer is that Democrats chose to say things aren't as bad as others see them because they wanted to be supportive of the president and understood that saying current economic conditions are "poor" would be an indictment of Obama's leadership.

Sometimes, our partisanship colors how we view reality, rather than our view of reality coloring our partisanship. That's an important thing to remember as we look at survey data.

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_1/Are-Obama-Polls-Worse-Than-Meet-the-Eye-207006-1.html

[Soul Crusher]

But Obama continues to earn much higher marks, in part, because his base, including liberal Democrats and African-Americans, has been standing by him, which has tended to prevent his overall job approval numbers from falling as much as they otherwise might.

________________________ __________


This is why he is most likely done and TK is going to be in tears on November 5, 2012. 

[MCWAY]

But Obama continues to earn much higher marks, in part, because his base, including liberal Democrats and African-Americans, has been standing by him, which has tended to prevent his overall job approval numbers from falling as much as they otherwise might.

________________________ __________


This is why he is most likely done and TK is going to be in tears on November 5, 2012. 

No they won't. Election day is November 6!!

 

[Soul Crusher]

No they won't. Election day is November 6!!

 

What the obama cult does not realize is that obamas polls are being boosted by people crowded in places he already will win like NY, CA, etc.     

In the swing states and areas where people are wishy washy, they will stay home or vote for change most likely.   

[MCWAY]

What the obama cult does not realize is that obamas polls are being boosted by people crowded in places he already will win like NY, CA, etc.    

In the swing states and areas where people are wishy washy, they will stay home or vote for change most likely.  

You beat me to the punch on that one.

Thankfully, we have the electoral college and the winner-take-all format. I expect Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio to flip back to "red".

Brit Hume on Fox News puts it quite nicely:

Republicans, obsessing about their lack of a new political superstar to lead them against the vaunted Barack Obama next year, seem not to have notice something: This President is in as full of a political retreat as this town has seen in many years. He was elected to fix the economy, but people think he and his party have failed and have exploded the nation's debt in the process. His poll numbers are abysmal on both counts. Moreover, his political base is cranky about the war in Afghanistan, unhappy that he failed to end the Bush tax cuts, and worried now that he may be willing to cut spending significantly to win an increase in the debt-ceiling.

"Mr. Obama knows he must stir his base to have any hope of election. But, he knows also that if the independents that backed him in 2008 and deserted him and his party last fall don't come back, his base won't be enough.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2011/07/06/brit_hume_commentary_obama_in_full_political_retreat.html

Hume is also right about another thing: Too many Republicans are wailing that there's no "superstar" in the current GOP field to beat Obama. We don't NEED a "superstar", in order to beat this guy.

[Soul Crusher]

It wont matter.   As bad as mclame was, he still only lost by less than 6 points.   

If things are like today next november - obama is going down like carter.   

[MCWAY]

It wont matter.   As bad as mclame was, he still only lost by less than 6 points.   

If things are like today next november - obama is going down like carter.   

Prior to the economic collapse, McCain was leading Obama in the national and state-by-state polls (I followed this trend on RealClearPolitics).

Barring some economic boon within the next 16 months, Obama is in BIIIIIIIIIIIIG TROUBLE!!!

That would explain, in part, why he's sucking up to the gays and trying to do the back-door amnesty thing with illegal aliens and their kids.

[Vince G, CSN MFT]

It wont matter.   As bad as mclame was, he still only lost by less than 6 points.  

If things are like today next november - obama is going down like carter.    

The vote percentage doesn't matter or otherwise Al Gore would have been president.

Its the electorial college that matters and McCain got blown out of the water.  He was beat very badly  


Of course, Obama won by over 10,000,000 votes so that's pretty significant. 

[MCWAY]

The vote percentage doesn't matter or otherwise Al Gore would have been president.

Its the electorial college that matters and McCain got blown out of the water.  He was beat very badly  


Of course, Obama won by over 10,000,000 votes so that's pretty significant. 

And we explain why he got "blown out of the water".

This time around, however, Obama has an actual record he must defend. And, by any standards, it's an abysmal one. He's bled over 2 million jobs since he's been president; his stimulus was a flop; he started a third war without Congressional approval; and his party took one of the worst political beatings in American history last November.