Highly unlikely he wins the Iowa straw poll, but even if he does, it's not a predictor of whether he will win the nomination. Romney won the last one. McCain was third.
If you want to more accurately gauge his chances, you should look at how he performed in his home state of Texas in the 2008 primary, and whether he can beat someone like Perry in the 2012 Texas primary.
If I had to guess, I'd say he comes in third or fourth. But who knows? He has some rabid supporters.
