Author Topic: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.  (Read 1916 times)

Soul Crusher

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Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« on: August 22, 2011, 10:21:11 AM »
Why Bam’s doomed
By JOHN PODHORETZ

Last Updated: 2:54 AM, August 19, 2011





Unless something extraordinarily dramatic comes along to change the course of the US economy and the sentiments of the American people in the next six months, Barack Obama is finished.

That conclusion is inescapable from the history of US presidential politics since 1945.

Obama is now below 40 percent in job approval in the Gallup poll. Yes, as the political scientist Larry Sabato points out, almost every president since FDR has fallen to that level. But of those seven presidents, five (Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush) went on either to lose the next election or to not run again.

The Truman story is complex: He was at 35 percent in 1946 yet won in ’48 -- but he fell back into the 30s in 1951 and opted against running for a second full term.

The exceptions are Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton. But the essentials of those wins should terrify Obama’s supporters.

Reagan hit 35 percent in 1983. By year’s end, though, the economy had lifted out of a dreadful recession to growth at an annual rate of 4.5 percent. In ’84, it grew at a sizzling 7.2 percent. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2 percent in 1983 to 7.2 percent on Election Day 1984 -- and Reagan won 49 states.

Clinton hit 39 percent in September 1994, and was slammed with a GOP triumph in the midterm elections two months later. But by the end of ’94, the economy had grown 4.1 percent. Growth dropped to 2.5 percent in ’95, but bounced back to a healthy 3.7 percent in ’96. Plus, unemployment on Clinton’s watch fell from 7.5 percent in 1992 to 5.4 percent in ’96.


So how do things look for Obama? Bad -- in every particular.

Growth in the first quarter of 2011 was a shocking 0.4 percent. Second quarter: 1.3 percent. Forecasters are dropping their estimates of growth for the year to 2 percent -- and that seems extraordinarily optimistic.

Joachim Fels, of Morgan Stanley, said Wednesday that America was “dangerously close” to a recession, around the same time that the president was telling CBS’ Anthony Mason, “I don’t think we’re in danger of another recession.”

Oh? Yesterday’s horrible report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicates that manufacturing in our region “contracted sharply in August.” As The Wall Street Journal’s Kathleen Madigan reported, “Its factory-sector index . . . fell to -30.7 this month from 3.2 in July.” That index “has never been this low without the economy being in recession.”

The consequences of a double-dip recession are nightmarish for the nation and fatal to Obama’s hopes. Aside from everything else, unemployment would certainly rise from its current 9.1 percent just as the election year starts.

As we’ve seen over the last few years, even if the economy comes back, there’s no reason to believe the jobs picture will improve much. So Obama will be seeking re-election with the jobless rate far worse than the one he inherited -- and worse than it was in the previous year.

He’ll argue that he inherited a crisis. Fine, most voters won’t blame him for the fact that the unemployment rate rose to 10 percent after the 2008 meltdown. But if it returns to that level after dropping to 8.9 percent, he’ll have no convincing defense.

To sum up: History says that five of seven presidents whose poll numbers hit the 30s either lost or dropped out. The two who won were able to run on economic numbers that left the public optimistic about the future.

Not now. Gallup says just 11 percent of Americans are satisfied with the country’s economic condition. And they hold Obama responsible: Just 26 percent approve of the job he’s doing on the economy.

And just 23 percent of independents approve. But Obama needs a majority of independent voters to prevail next November; it’s extraordinarily difficult to see how he gets them.

The president is giving a speech after his vacation that will lay out a dramatic jobs and deficit-reduction plan. That’s nice.

But given the ineffectuality of his efforts thus far, his supporters shouldn’t hold out too much hope that he’s going to change the course of the world’s largest economy, which is heading toward the shoals again -- and is far likelier than not to run Obama aground for good.

jpodhoretz@gmail.com



Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/why_bam_doomed_9F00LyaGY07dRoSiuxPRzI#ixzz1VW2LORgE



loco

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #1 on: August 22, 2011, 10:55:28 AM »
Unfortunately, I believe Obama will win again.   Hope I'm wrong!    :-\

Soul Crusher

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2011, 11:03:01 AM »
Unfortunately, I believe Obama will win again.   Hope I'm wrong!    :-\

Why? 

Again - MCCain - who sucked ass - got 48% after a horrible campaign and while obama had everything going for him. 

Obama had no record whatsoever and was able to be all things to all people.  He had the fawning media, bush fatiugue, novelty of the first black potus, horrible economy, etc.   


Now - he has a record to run on - a disastrous one at that.   Economy is worse, jobs data worse, still in the wars, inflation, etc etc.   He has alienated huge swaths of the electorate with his garbage who will either sit home or vote for the other guy. 

In 2008 - obama maxed out his minority voting %.  He will not get the same enthusiasm or participation as in 2008. 

The youth vote is more divided as college grads still can get jobs. 


Is all of this worth more than 4 point difference?  i think so.   

Straw Man

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #3 on: August 22, 2011, 11:24:01 AM »
I don't see anyone in the current crop of Republican nutbags who has any hope of beating him

Of course, 333 doesn't even think he'll be running for a second term (ignoring the fact that he's already announced it)

Soul Crusher

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #4 on: August 22, 2011, 11:27:10 AM »
I don't see anyone in the current crop of Republican nutbags who has any hope of beating him

Of course, 333 doesn't even think he'll be running for a second term (ignoring the fact that he's already announced it)


It doesnt matter.  The GOP could run sponge bob or Wee Man and Obama is gone.   

2012 is about the economy and obama's performance, little else.   

   
Even Bama himself said he will be a one term potus if the economy does not turn around.   

loco

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #5 on: August 22, 2011, 11:27:58 AM »
Obama is just another Jimmy Carter type, some of it is his fault, some of it isn't.  Repubs would need another Ronald Reagan type.  

Deicide

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #6 on: August 22, 2011, 12:17:59 PM »
Obama is just another Jimmy Carter type, some of it is his fault, some of it isn't.  Repubs would need another Ronald Reagan type.  

Even better, Ron Paul. ;)

If Ron Paul could get the primary nomination he could cream Obama...
I hate the State.

loco

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #7 on: August 22, 2011, 12:28:39 PM »
Even better, Ron Paul. ;)

If Ron Paul could get the primary nomination he could cream Obama...

I agree, and I hope he does.

Dos Equis

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #8 on: August 22, 2011, 12:42:10 PM »
Why Bam’s doomed
By JOHN PODHORETZ

Last Updated: 2:54 AM, August 19, 2011





Unless something extraordinarily dramatic comes along to change the course of the US economy and the sentiments of the American people in the next six months, Barack Obama is finished.

That conclusion is inescapable from the history of US presidential politics since 1945.

Obama is now below 40 percent in job approval in the Gallup poll. Yes, as the political scientist Larry Sabato points out, almost every president since FDR has fallen to that level. But of those seven presidents, five (Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush) went on either to lose the next election or to not run again.

The Truman story is complex: He was at 35 percent in 1946 yet won in ’48 -- but he fell back into the 30s in 1951 and opted against running for a second full term.

The exceptions are Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton. But the essentials of those wins should terrify Obama’s supporters.

Reagan hit 35 percent in 1983. By year’s end, though, the economy had lifted out of a dreadful recession to growth at an annual rate of 4.5 percent. In ’84, it grew at a sizzling 7.2 percent. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2 percent in 1983 to 7.2 percent on Election Day 1984 -- and Reagan won 49 states.

Clinton hit 39 percent in September 1994, and was slammed with a GOP triumph in the midterm elections two months later. But by the end of ’94, the economy had grown 4.1 percent. Growth dropped to 2.5 percent in ’95, but bounced back to a healthy 3.7 percent in ’96. Plus, unemployment on Clinton’s watch fell from 7.5 percent in 1992 to 5.4 percent in ’96.


So how do things look for Obama? Bad -- in every particular.

Growth in the first quarter of 2011 was a shocking 0.4 percent. Second quarter: 1.3 percent. Forecasters are dropping their estimates of growth for the year to 2 percent -- and that seems extraordinarily optimistic.

Joachim Fels, of Morgan Stanley, said Wednesday that America was “dangerously close” to a recession, around the same time that the president was telling CBS’ Anthony Mason, “I don’t think we’re in danger of another recession.”

Oh? Yesterday’s horrible report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicates that manufacturing in our region “contracted sharply in August.” As The Wall Street Journal’s Kathleen Madigan reported, “Its factory-sector index . . . fell to -30.7 this month from 3.2 in July.” That index “has never been this low without the economy being in recession.”

The consequences of a double-dip recession are nightmarish for the nation and fatal to Obama’s hopes. Aside from everything else, unemployment would certainly rise from its current 9.1 percent just as the election year starts.

As we’ve seen over the last few years, even if the economy comes back, there’s no reason to believe the jobs picture will improve much. So Obama will be seeking re-election with the jobless rate far worse than the one he inherited -- and worse than it was in the previous year.

He’ll argue that he inherited a crisis. Fine, most voters won’t blame him for the fact that the unemployment rate rose to 10 percent after the 2008 meltdown. But if it returns to that level after dropping to 8.9 percent, he’ll have no convincing defense.

To sum up: History says that five of seven presidents whose poll numbers hit the 30s either lost or dropped out. The two who won were able to run on economic numbers that left the public optimistic about the future.

Not now. Gallup says just 11 percent of Americans are satisfied with the country’s economic condition. And they hold Obama responsible: Just 26 percent approve of the job he’s doing on the economy.

And just 23 percent of independents approve. But Obama needs a majority of independent voters to prevail next November; it’s extraordinarily difficult to see how he gets them.

The president is giving a speech after his vacation that will lay out a dramatic jobs and deficit-reduction plan. That’s nice.

But given the ineffectuality of his efforts thus far, his supporters shouldn’t hold out too much hope that he’s going to change the course of the world’s largest economy, which is heading toward the shoals again -- and is far likelier than not to run Obama aground for good.

jpodhoretz@gmail.com



Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/why_bam_doomed_9F00LyaGY07dRoSiuxPRzI#ixzz1VW2LORgE




Good article.  Obama has a horrendous record.  If there isn't a miraculous recovery, he is done. 

Straw Man

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #9 on: August 22, 2011, 12:49:03 PM »

It doesnt matter.  The GOP could run sponge bob or Wee Man and Obama is gone.    

2012 is about the economy and obama's performance, little else.   

   
Even Bama himself said he will be a one term potus if the economy does not turn around.   
I assume you actually believe this

more proof of your mental illness

Soul Crusher

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #10 on: August 22, 2011, 12:52:29 PM »
I assume you actually believe this

more proof of your mental illness

Straw Man

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #11 on: August 22, 2011, 12:58:55 PM »
333 - where is Sponge Bob on that list


Soul Crusher

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #12 on: August 22, 2011, 01:08:39 PM »
333 - where is Sponge Bob on that list



Doesnt matter - Wee Man or Beetle Juice can beat obama. 

headhuntersix

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #13 on: August 22, 2011, 01:12:52 PM »
PRINCETON, NJ -- President Barack Obama is closely matched against each of four possible Republican opponents when registered voters are asked whom they would support if the 2012 presidential election were held today. Mitt Romney leads Obama by two percentage points, 48% to 46%, Rick Perry and Obama are tied at 47%, and Obama edges out Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann by two and four points, respectively
L

Straw Man

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #14 on: August 22, 2011, 01:12:59 PM »
Doesnt matter - Wee Man or Beetle Juice can beat obama. 

I wouldn't expect you to believe anything else

I expect you'll be telling yourself he's not running for a second term even as the votes are being counted on election night

OzmO

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #15 on: August 22, 2011, 01:27:55 PM »
PRINCETON, NJ -- President Barack Obama is closely matched against each of four possible Republican opponents when registered voters are asked whom they would support if the 2012 presidential election were held today. Mitt Romney leads Obama by two percentage points, 48% to 46%, Rick Perry and Obama are tied at 47%, and Obama edges out Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann by two and four points, respectively
. Bump for33333.  Wtf?

Soul Crusher

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #16 on: August 22, 2011, 01:29:04 PM »
. Bump for33333.  Wtf?

Bump What? 


LurkerNoMore

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #17 on: August 22, 2011, 01:30:48 PM »
I assume you actually believe this

more proof of your mental illness

Delusional sociopaths tend to live outside the realm of reality.

Soul Crusher

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #18 on: August 22, 2011, 01:33:25 PM »
Reagan hit 35 percent in 1983. By year’s end, though, the economy had lifted out of a dreadful recession to growth at an annual rate of 4.5 percent. In ’84, it grew at a sizzling 7.2 percent. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2 percent in 1983 to 7.2 percent on Election Day 1984 -- and Reagan won 49 states.

Clinton hit 39 percent in September 1994, and was slammed with a GOP triumph in the midterm elections two months later. But by the end of ’94, the economy had grown 4.1 percent. Growth dropped to 2.5 percent in ’95, but bounced back to a healthy 3.7 percent in ’96. Plus, unemployment on Clinton’s watch fell from 7.5 percent in 1992 to 5.4 percent in ’96.



________________________ ________________________ _____________

Do any of you morons who voted for obama thing the economy will will roar back at plus 4% next year? 

He is gone - get over it.  your dreams of a marxist utopia are going to be dashed.   

Straw Man

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #19 on: August 22, 2011, 01:42:26 PM »
Reagan hit 35 percent in 1983. By year’s end, though, the economy had lifted out of a dreadful recession to growth at an annual rate of 4.5 percent. In ’84, it grew at a sizzling 7.2 percent. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2 percent in 1983 to 7.2 percent on Election Day 1984 -- and Reagan won 49 states.

Clinton hit 39 percent in September 1994, and was slammed with a GOP triumph in the midterm elections two months later. But by the end of ’94, the economy had grown 4.1 percent. Growth dropped to 2.5 percent in ’95, but bounced back to a healthy 3.7 percent in ’96. Plus, unemployment on Clinton’s watch fell from 7.5 percent in 1992 to 5.4 percent in ’96.



________________________ ________________________ _____________

Do any of you morons who voted for obama thing the economy will will roar back at plus 4% next year? 

He is gone - get over it.  your dreams of a marxist utopia are going to be dashed.   

333 - what will you do when Obama is re-elected

I suspect it will trigger psychotic break but that may happen before that point if you actually are able to process the fact that he is running

LurkerNoMore

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #20 on: August 22, 2011, 01:55:23 PM »
333 - what will you do when Obama is re-elected

I suspect it will trigger psychotic break but that may happen before that point if you actually are able to process the fact that he is running

Yes, I want to hear the answer to this.

What are you going to do when he wins?  Whine for another 4 years?

Soul Crusher

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #21 on: August 22, 2011, 01:59:14 PM »
Yes, I want to hear the answer to this.

What are you going to do when he wins?  Whine for another 4 years?

I don't think he is even going to be on the ballot at this rate.   Probably 55% Hillary is recruited to run. 

If Bama is at 40% next year at this time, and the economy is still in the toilet, he is done. 

If he does win - well, the popiulation will get what it deserves, like what it is getting now. 

________________________ ______________



"The danger to America is not Barack Obama but a citizenry capable of entrusting a man like him with the Presidency. It will be far easier to limit and undo the follies of an Obama presidency than to restore the necessary common sense and good judgment to a depraved electorate willing to have such a man for their president. … The problem is much deeper and far more serious than Mr. Obama, who is a mere symptom of what ails America. Blaming the prince of the fools should not blind anyone to the vast confederacy of fools that made him their prince. … The Republic can survive a Barack Obama, who is, after all, merely a fool. … It is less likely to survive a multitude of fools such as those who made him their president." – Prager Zeitung

Straw Man

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #22 on: August 22, 2011, 02:02:34 PM »
I don't think he is even going to be on the ballot at this rate.   Probably 55% Hillary is recruited to run. 

If Bama is at 40% next year at this time, and the economy is still in the toilet, he is done. 

If he does win - well, the popiulation will get what it deserves, like what it is getting now. 

________________________ ______________



"The danger to America is not Barack Obama but a citizenry capable of entrusting a man like him with the Presidency. It will be far easier to limit and undo the follies of an Obama presidency than to restore the necessary common sense and good judgment to a depraved electorate willing to have such a man for their president. … The problem is much deeper and far more serious than Mr. Obama, who is a mere symptom of what ails America. Blaming the prince of the fools should not blind anyone to the vast confederacy of fools that made him their prince. … The Republic can survive a Barack Obama, who is, after all, merely a fool. … It is less likely to survive a multitude of fools such as those who made him their president." – Prager Zeitung




You love that quote don't you comrade

the mental patient who thinks every one is a commie doesn't think his fellow citizens can be trusted with the right to vote

LurkerNoMore

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #23 on: August 22, 2011, 02:08:41 PM »
I don't think he is even going to be on the ballot at this rate.   Probably 55% Hillary is recruited to run. 

If Bama is at 40% next year at this time, and the economy is still in the toilet, he is done. 

If he does win - well, the popiulation will get what it deserves, like what it is getting now. 

________________________ ______________


We asked what YOU would do.

You didn't answer.

And you claim to be a lawyer but can't answer simple questions.   ::)

Soul Crusher

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Re: Why Obama is most likely doomed to a single term.
« Reply #24 on: August 22, 2011, 02:15:34 PM »
Ride it out.