Author Topic: Krugman in 1997 on Social Security: "The Ponzi game will soon be over"  (Read 472 times)

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Blast From Paul Krugman's Past: "Social Security Is A Ponzi Scheme And Will Soon Be Over"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/13/2011 21:28 -0400

Demographics Krugman None Paul Krugman


It is one thing (what thing that is we are not sure, but we have heard others say it, so like all good lemmings we will say it too) for Rick Perry to call Social Security a ponzi scheme. After all he is some crazy, foaming in the mouth conservative, as uber-Keynesian liberal Paul Krugman may call him. And that's fine. What confuses us, however, is why Social Security would be called a ponzi by the same liberal noted previously: none other than Paul Krugman himself.

Exhibit A, from a distant 1997, which perhaps one would have expected to remain buried (source):

Social Security is structured from the point of view of the recipients as if it were an ordinary retirement plan: what you get out depends on what you put in. So it does not look like a redistributionist scheme. In practice it has turned out to be strongly redistributionist, but only because of its Ponzi game aspect, in which each generation takes more out than it put in. Well, the Ponzi game will soon be over, thanks to changing demographics, so that the typical recipient henceforth will get only about as much as he or she put in (and today's young may well get less than they put in).

This coming from the same person who a year ago said the following much anticipated truism, and has in the interim become a caricature of himself:

So where do claims of crisis come from? To a large extent they rely on bad-faith accounting. In particular, they rely on an exercise in three-card monte in which the surpluses Social Security has been running for a quarter-century don’t count — because hey, the program doesn’t have any independent existence; it’s just part of the general federal budget — while future Social Security deficits are unacceptable — because hey, the program has to stand on its own.

 

It would be easy to dismiss this bait-and-switch as obvious nonsense, except for one thing: many influential people — including Alan Simpson, co-chairman of the president’s deficit commission — are peddling this nonsense.

 

And having invented a crisis, what do Social Security’s attackers want to do? They don’t propose cutting benefits to current retirees; invariably the plan is, instead, to cut benefits many years in the future. So think about it this way: In order to avoid the possibility of future benefit cuts, we must cut future benefits. O.K.

 

What’s really going on here? Conservatives hate Social Security for ideological reasons: its success undermines their claim that government is always the problem, never the solution. But they receive crucial support from Washington insiders, for whom a declared willingness to cut Social Security has long served as a badge of fiscal seriousness, never mind the arithmetic.

 

And neither wing of the anti-Social-Security coalition seems to know or care about the hardship its favorite proposals would cause.

The only question we have for the Nobelist: is some form of affective disorder a necessary and sufficient condition to espouse the virtues of government dumping endless capital in what said Nobelist himself calls a Ponzi scheme, and just how would the overlord, John M. Keynes, fell about this?

h/t John Poehling

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/paul-krugman-social-security-ponzi-scheme-and-will-soon-be-over


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Re: Krugman in 1997 on Social Security: "The Ponzi game will soon be over"
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2011, 05:00:26 AM »

Social Security Now Officially in the Red
Washington Post ^ | October 29, 2011 | Lisa Montgomery
Posted on October 30, 2011 7:58:03 AM EDT by Stajack

Now, Social Security is sucking money out of the Treasury. This year, it will add a projected $46 billion to the nation’s budget problems, according to projections by system trustees. Replacing cash lost to a one-year payroll tax holiday will require an additional $105 billion. If the payroll tax break is expanded next year, as President Obama has proposed, Social Security will need an extra $267 billion to pay promised benefits.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...

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Re: Krugman in 1997 on Social Security: "The Ponzi game will soon be over"
« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2011, 05:39:37 AM »
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Entitlement Programs: A Plan to End Them
Pajamas Media ^ | 10/30/2011 | Amit Ghate
Posted on October 30, 2011 8:19:53 AM EDT by IbJensen

Untangling ourselves from entitlements will restore our solvency and our spirit.

America’s financial situation is precarious. Over the past eight years our national debt has doubled to $14.5 trillion, and our total unfunded liabilities now exceed an astonishing $114 trillion. That’s $1,115,000 per federal income taxpayer.

Even the most unrepentant spendthrift understands that these debts and liabilities are unsupportable, nor can they be solved by immorally targeting the rich. Instead, we must enact immediate, across-the-board spending cuts, with special emphasis on the biggest components of our financial wreck: Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. These entitlement programs constitute the majority of our unfunded liabilities, because despite being labeled “trusts” they’re not actually savings plans.

Rather, the programs are essentially pay-as-you-go schemes. (What little surplus the trusts did accumulate was used to fund other government programs, such that nothing’s been saved[1].) Operating this way has two terrible consequences. First, because funds aren’t saved and invested, they don’t generate returns. Thus there’s no compounding effect for any of the money that’s been withheld. Second, for every year that the programs are in existence, their total future liabilities increase.

Moreover, the programs have grown inexorably over time, partly because they were deemed good in principle, and partly because it takes nothing but a vote to increase benefits.

When Social Security was first rolled out in 1936, the promise was that the program would be very limited, both in terms of contributions and of payout. The most anyone would contribute was $360 per year, including the employer’s contribution. By 2010 entitlement programs cost employees up to $12,648 for Social Security and an unlimited amount for Medicare (at a rate of 2.9% of salaried income). Promised — but unfunded — benefits grew even faster, with payouts exceeding inflation and the years of retirement coverage continuously increasing. By some estimates, a typical 66-year-old couple today will get back double what they paid in. It’s no wonder that our entitlement programs are often compared to criminal Ponzi schemes.

In the past, a myopic focus on the short-term may have allowed some to gloss over the long-term insolvency of the programs, but that’s no longer possible. For we’re now rapidly approaching the time when the money deducted from employees’ paychecks is much less than payouts promised to program participants. Already today, approximately half of Medicare’s funding comes from general tax revenues.

Clearly then, our entitlement programs are an unmitigated financial disaster. But if we’re to properly deal with them, we mustn’t limit our analysis to economics alone. For after all, the deepest arguments underlying the programs aren’t financial — they’re moral. Indeed, much of the reason that there’s never been any reform of the programs is that until recently, few would question the moral views of man’s nature upon which they’re justified.

What are some of these questions?

As recently discussed here and at length here, one fundamental question pertains to whether men are ends in themselves or means to others’ ends. I won’t recap the arguments, but suffice it to say that when the Founders created this land of opportunity (not of entitlements), they clearly enunciated a new — American — ideal in which each of us pursues our own happiness. This put them squarely in the camp of treating individuals as ends in themselves. It’s a camp to which more and more of us are proud to belong.

Another crucial question is whether, in general, men are capable of thinking and fending for themselves.

This question is best answered by observing people throughout history. Compare the success and can-do attitude of citizens living under freedom to those living under any form of statism, and one has to conclude that — when left alone — men are eminently capable of thinking and fending for themselves. It’s only when the state removes and restricts incentives and choices that men become dependent.

For nearly two centuries, Americans, including millions of penniless immigrants, eloquently proved the point. The world marveled at the typical American’s self-reliance, be it his ability to earn a living, build his house, fix his car, or move up the social ladder. In every domain, when left free to think, act, and enjoy the rewards of hard work, Americans surpassed themselves and the rest of the world.

But advocates of entitlement programs deny this. They view man (except perhaps that special breed which constitutes the governing class) as feeble and incapable. He can’t think or plan for himself. He must be forced to act for his own “good.” Indeed, as we saw with the passage of Obamacare, there’s no longer even a pretense of persuasion; we childlike peons are to find out what’s in store for us when the laws have been passed. Ever since the New Deal, it’s this paternalistic view that’s guided government policy.

Tragically, however, the paternalists have the causation backwards. In actuality, it’s their myriad of forced redistribution programs that has fostered a mentality of dependence among the populace. With each new program they implement, they further sever the link between personal action and personal outcomes. Slowly people lose the idea of individual responsibility, and begin to believe that somehow they’re “entitled to” or have a “right to” the products of other people’s efforts. As a result, America’s independent spirit is waning.

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Re: Krugman in 1997 on Social Security: "The Ponzi game will soon be over"
« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2012, 03:57:11 PM »
  USA Debt is also a Ponzi