Jay is around 280 lbs and he is ripped. What you see is a film of water obscuring definition, but he should have lost it by tomorrow. As for the left biceps, Dorian won in 1997 without one, so I hardly think Jay will lose because his is oil-filled and lumpy...
SUCKMYMUSCLE
He could still win, there's a chance, of course. But even though I'm one of the few people who was rooting for him to win, I don't think he should, given the way he looks.
Based on the call outs, I'd say Phil is leading over Jay, possibly has straight firsts. So Jay will have to close that gap and then beat him tomorrow by improving, which Phil can also do in 24 hours.
I'd be very surprised if Jay wins. He's had a good run, but his body looks beyond repair to win a big title, same as Ronnie's did 2006 on.
Also, Jay is 258 lb, he tweeted it just before the prejudging.