http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=48E7CE88-5725-43D6-B99C-C5064860F31CHe could still get in. I think there is the weight issue and then I think he may have an issue or two that we don't know about. I don't like his 2nd Amendment stance so he'll have to address that pretty quickly.
Let’s say Chris Christie decides to run for for president — then what?
It’s a question that has occurred to Christie and his circle of intimates — and they’ve begun sketching a plan in case the governor goes forward with a run.
They understand that all the enthusiasm and pleading in some Republican quarters for a Christie candidacy obscures the fact that the New Jersey governor would immediately have to scale the side of a steep and unforgiving political mountain.
With the initial primary and caucus states poised to move up their contests to January, an October announcement means that Christie would immediately confront two questions of some urgency: where would he compete and how would he get on the ballot in an array of states coming in rapid succession.
Those decisions have to be made and action needs to be taken while also handling myriad other demands — all of it on the fly.
While Christie’s camp is staying mum, the governor is aware, according to top Republicans and donors, that the hour is growing late. He has to decide what to do within the week — and below are the issues he’d have to address.
Organization
Christie has a tight-knit group of advisers, but it isn’t quite like the turnkey operation Rick Perry had in place. Because while Perry was mulling, at least for public consumption, whether to run all summer, his top aides were building an operation in the early states.
So, in the midst of launching a campaign, Christie would have to simultaneously create both a national infrastructure and state-by-state organization. The good news is that there are still Republicans left to staff such an effort — one well-connected Iowa strategist was emailing Christie associates as recently as this week offering to help.
The governor has aides with presidential experience — both his communications director Maria Comella and top political adviser Mike DuHaime were on Rudy Giuliani’s campaign — and there are consultants in the wings who are available to step in and handle media, polling and mail. DuHaime “knows everyone in his business,” said one GOP strategist, noting his time at the Republican National Committee under Ken Mehlman prior to the 2008 race.
The challenge for Christie, though, isn’t necessarily putting together a strategy team. It’s throwing together, in mid-stride, an organization that could handle all the mundane but crucial tasks of a presidential campaign.
Take ballot access for example. The rules vary in every state. Mitt Romney’s campaign offered a pointed reminder to Christie on Thursday about how arduous this task can be, issuing a press release noting that they had qualified for the Vermont primary ballot. That requires, in addition to a filing fee, getting the signatures of 1,000 registered voters.
In other states, essential deadlines are fast approaching. Candidates have to file in Florida by the end of October and then the day after in South Carolina. By Dec. 5, 3,000 signatures from registered Illinois voters are due in Springfield to appear on the GOP primary ballot next year.
Next question: How ready is Christie’s team for the attacks his rivals will inevitably launch? Top-tier campaigns put together oppo books on themselves — and their rivals. While Team Christie has material from his 2009 campaign, his record as governor would get a major vetting from the national press.
“Who answers the phones, who creates a website, who gets you on the ballot — it’s all those little things that even when you have months and months to ramp up that can be complicated,” said a GOP veteran of past presidential campaigns who thinks Christie could yet pull it off. “Even if the candidate is ready, there are logistical issues that need to catch up with him. And you don’t have a month and a half to get it right.”
One top Republican argued the ramp-up wouldn’t be the daunting task some make it to be, adding that Christie’s team is aware of the specific pitfalls — having encountered them up close with Giuliani — and is going to do what it can to avoid them. One issue that’s unavoidable: he’ll have to expand beyond some of the consultants he’s worked with in the past, such as on media and mail, since a few are tied up with other presidential campaigns now.
Strategy
In addition to putting together a team to handle the incoming demands and flak from the press, donors, activists, elected officials and opponents, the calendar would also force Christie to immediately decide on his strategic path.
Namely, where would he compete?
Christie has been received warmly in Iowa on past visits — GOP Gov. Terry Branstad said he hadn’t been so inspired by a speech since Ronald Reagan — but the caucuses demand a candidate have a 99-county organization and are heavy on cultural conservatives. No Eastern Republican has ever won there.
New Hampshire, with its Northeastern, fiscally focused sensibility, could offer Christie a better launching pad.
The questions only multiply after that: Could Christie ramp up in time to contest the Nevada caucuses, where Mitt Romney is expected to be strong? Would a blustery Northeasterner have any appeal in South Carolina, where Perry is locking up support? Or could Christie find success in the fashion his friend Giuliani originally envisioned — using a New Hampshire victory as a springboard into Florida? (Recall that the former New York mayor didn’t pull out of New Hampshire until mid-December).
In any case, Christie has, at least at the outset, “a window in every early state,” said a Republican strategist who asked not to be identified. He’s been wooed by a cadre of Iowa donors and, unlike Giuliani in 2007, wouldn’t have to modulate on issues like gay marriage and abortion (he’s against both). Most encouraging, several strategists indicated, are the large numbers of voters who remain undecided in each early state.
What he lacks, another strategist said, is a state where he begins with a natural edge — like New Hampshire for Romney and South Carolina for Perry — in the first round of voting. But that likely means he would play a bit in each state before narrowing down his field — South Carolina seems like a candidate to disappear, barring a total Perry collapse.
As far as national media, he’s developed relationships during his time in office that would serve him well — not the least of which is with Roger Ailes of Fox News, and his boss, Rupert Murdoch.
Christie has focused heavily on the economy, and his Reagan Presidential Library address this week on “Real American Exceptionalism” was widely seen as a road map for a stump message. He would likely jump in quickly with policy formulas, which would fill the void created by the rest of the field — struggling front-runner Rick Perry has made no policy addresses so far — and would prevent others from defining him first.
Another area of strength: Christie has tended to thrive in town hall-style formats, which are key in early states.
Policy and Schedule
Christie’s rapid rise can be traced to his confrontational style and the battles he’s waged over his state’s budget, but he’d need a crash course on foreign policy and issues he’s had little experience with in being governor for a year and a half. That’s difficult enough for any state politician, but Christie would have not months but days to get conversant before a string of debates. And he’d have to do so while simultaneously keeping the busy schedule of a presidential candidate: raising money, doing retail events, holding private meetings with staff and potential supporters, conducting interviews and delivering speeches.
“There will be people pushing him to get out on the stump more, others pushing for more finance events, and still others trying to pull him behind closed doors for policy briefings and debate prep,” said GOP consultant Todd Harris, who worked on Fred Thompson’s late-starting 2008 campaign. “And you pretty much have to say yes to all of them. It’s definitely doable, but it’s a hell of a lot of work in a short period of time.”
The time demands are all interrelated — decisions to focus on one come at the expense of another. Devote hours to debate prep and TV interviews and that’s a California fundraiser that you may not make and fewer dollars you’ll eventually have. But spend that extra day out West raising money and you sacrifice time on the ground in the early states whose voters demand a personal touch and whose votes will determine if you can even make it past the first month.
Christie also seems unlikely to give up being governor, meaning he’ll be spending a fair amount of time out of the state — and if he’s the nominee, it will happen during key policy fights such as the budget in the spring.
Fortunately for Christie, technology and his ability to command media attention have made finding success after a late entry at least plausible.
“If you have the ability to get on the news, paid or earned, you’re in the ballgame,” said a GOP campaign veteran.
Money
This is one area, more than any other, where Christie supporters feel confident he’ll do just fine.
Several bundlers who like Christie but who thought there was zero chance he’d reconsider signed up with Romney. But many others have stayed on the sidelines, including at least 40 or so who had told him they wouldn’t go elsewhere if there was a chance he’d run.
They include some of the biggest gets in the donor community — Paul Singer, Charles Schwab, Ken Langone — who’ve played a role in repeatedly approaching Christie about running, despite the fact that the answer was “no” over and over again.
“This is not going to be a problem,” said one donor who is familiar with the private meetings Christie has held. “There’s just so much money on the sidelines.”
Among the key reassurances the bundlers gave him? A super PAC would immediately be formed to help raise unlimited sums of cash that couldn’t be coordinated with his campaign but could support his candidacy.
The prospect of a super PAC cash infusion has played a role in convincing Christie that he would be able to compete, despite a late start, with two proven fundraisers, multiple sources said.
It’s not immediately clear what the target would be for Christie’s initial quarter (which he’d join, as Perry did, once it was already under way). But it’s likely to try to be on a par with at least what Romney raised in his first quarter this cycle, $18 million.
And Christie has fans not just in the New York donor community, but in other ATM states like California — places where large numbers of hard-dollar checks can be bundled
