It's a 4-way tie for 1st in Iowa.... all within margin of error... I'm not sure why he's so pessimistic. Maybe just setting the bar low?
Via Teagan Goddard, the St. Petersburg Times reports Mitt Romney privately told supporters in Tallahassee that he thinks he'll lose to a tea party candidate in Iowa, but that he'll ultimately win the nomination by prevailing in Florida:
Romney predicted a Tea Party favorite would win Iowa and that he would take New Hampshire, according to interviews with six people in the audience. Romney told the crowd he would seal the nomination by then winning Florida's Republican contest.