Mitt Romney will lose the general election

[howardroark]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_National_1220925.pdf

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................... ........................ ..... 45%
Mitt Romney.................. ........................ .......... 47%
Undecided............... ........................ ................ 8%

Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama................... ........................ ..... 43%
Mitt Romney.................. ........................ .......... 41%
Gary Johnson ........................ ........................ . 9%
Undecided............... ........................ ................ 7%

Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and independent Ron Paul, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama................... ........................ ..... 42%
Mitt Romney.................. ........................ .......... 37%
Ron Paul ........................ ........................ ......... 17%
Undecided............... ........................ ................ 4%

The bad news for Mitt: Ron Paul might not run in the general election, but Gary Johnson is already vying for the Libertarian nomination. The GOP has lost support of its libertarian wing and desperately needs to do something (or nominate someone) who can capture it back.

[Soul Crusher]

Gary Johnson will not get nine percent.    And if Obie is polling like that now - he is done.    Ron Paul is not running third party either. 

[howardroark]

Gary Johnson will not get nine percent.    And if Obie is polling like that now - he is done.    Ron Paul is not running third party either. 

We've got a little under a year to the general election and Gary Johnson is already polling at 9%. It goes to show that people are dissatisfied with the GOP and are looking for someone else. Unless this poll is a fluke, there is a VERY real chance that the Republicans will lose.

[Dos Equis]

Those polls don't support the thread title.

[howardroark]

Those polls don't support the thread title.

Yes, they do. If Gary Johnson takes the LP nomination, then Mitt will lose in the general election according to this poll. Mitt's only hope is to pick up more undecideds than Obama does or to do something to diminish Gary's support.

[Dos Equis]

Yes, they do. If Gary Johnson takes the LP nomination, then Mitt will lose in the general election according to this poll. Mitt's only hope is to pick up more undecideds than Obama does or to do something to diminish Gary's support.

Romney is ahead in the first poll by 2 percent.  Obama is ahead of Romney in the second poll by 2 percent.  Both are certainly within the margin of error, which means they are tied.  That does not support the thread title ("Mitt Romney will lose the general election"). 

The third poll shows Obama ahead by 5 percent.  Even that one might be within the margin of error. 

Gary Johnson isn't going to decide the election.  Libertarians don't impact make much of an impact at all on national elections. 

[polychronopolous]

Just out of curiosity... What determines whether a third party can get up on stage with the other two candidates? Is it based on a certain level of polling numbers?

[howardroark]

Romney is ahead in the first poll by 2 percent.  Obama is ahead of Romney in the second poll by 2 percent.  Both are certainly within the margin of error, which means they are tied.  That does not support the thread title ("Mitt Romney will lose the general election"). 

The third poll shows Obama ahead by 5 percent.  Even that one might be within the margin of error. 

Gary Johnson isn't going to decide the election.  Libertarians don't impact make much of an impact at all on national elections. 

Romney is ahead in the first poll because it's a two-way race... He falls behind in the second and third polls because it includes libertarians who take mostly from the Mitt's support. Sure, you could say that is within "the margin of error," but I did not see that poll stating WHAT the margin of error was for that poll, and either way, Mitt was still behind.

And yes, generally, libertarians don't make much of an impact. But when the GOP drops the ball, the Big Tent starts falling apart. Don't forget what happened in '96 with Ross Perot.

[240 is Back]

i can't believe it's tied at this point.

obama should be losing by 15 points.  unreal how forgiving america is. 

we're in the 2nd great depresssion, and a presidential contender viewed as a business genius is essentially TIED with the guy who got us in the depression.

un freaking real.

[Dos Equis]

Romney is ahead in the first poll because it's a two-way race... He falls behind in the second and third polls because it includes libertarians who take mostly from the Mitt's support. Sure, you could say that is within "the margin of error," but I did not see that poll stating WHAT the margin of error was for that poll, and either way, Mitt was still behind.

And yes, generally, libertarians don't make much of an impact. But when the GOP drops the ball, the Big Tent starts falling apart. Don't forget what happened in '96 with Ross Perot.

I doubt the margin of error is less than 2 percent.  

Perot didn't run as a libertarian.  He was also a billionaire with essentially unlimited resources.  And he was a very compelling figure, before he lost his mind.  I was actually going to vote for him before he showed he was a few fries short of a Happy Meal.  

I wouldn't put Gary Johnson in the same universe as pre-crazy Perot.  

[howardroark]

I mention Perot not because he was a libertarian (he obviously wasn't) but because he split from the Big Tent GOP after the GOP had seemingly lost its way. Many Republicans are EXTREMELY dissatisfied with their party now, more than they were ever before. After eight failed years of Bush and Republicans failing to accomplish much after they've taken the House in 2010, people are looking for real change. Many of those people might turn toward the LP. And a moderate Libertarian with an excellent record as a former Governor is someone who can appeal to those people.

[Straw Man]

i can't believe it's tied at this point.

obama should be losing by 15 points.  unreal how forgiving america is.  

we're in the 2nd great depresssion, and a presidential contender viewed as a business genius is essentially TIED with the guy who got us in the depression.

un freaking real.

or maybe the narrative created in the media and SCREAMED about by the right wing is not actually reflective of how people feel

[Fury]

i can't believe it's tied at this point.

obama should be losing by 15 points.  unreal how forgiving america is. 

we're in the 2nd great depresssion, and a presidential contender viewed as a business genius is essentially TIED with the guy who got us in the depression.

un freaking real.

 

Put your little pecker back in your pants and come back after the nominee is decided. Obama is in massive trouble and it still humors me that you deny it. Even top dems have said as much but you know better. Hahaha.

[howardroark]

or maybe the narrative created in the media and SCREAMED about by the right wing is not actually reflective of how people feel

Narrative created by the media? You mean the narrative that Obama's ridiculously weak economy is all Bush's/Japanese Tsunami's/Europe's fault? LOL.

[Soul Crusher]

Narrative created by the media? You mean the narrative that Obama's ridiculously weak economy is all Bush's/Japanese Tsunami's/Europe's fault? LOL.

Now it is boehners' fault! 

[Straw Man]

Narrative created by the media? You mean the narrative that Obama's ridiculously weak economy is all Bush's/Japanese Tsunami's/Europe's fault? LOL.

I mean exactly what I said

btw - if your hero RP were elected the economy would take a nose dive from where it is today

[Dos Equis]

I mention Perot not because he was a libertarian (he obviously wasn't) but because he split from the Big Tent GOP after the GOP had seemingly lost its way. Many Republicans are EXTREMELY dissatisfied with their party now, more than they were ever before. After eight failed years of Bush and Republicans failing to accomplish much after they've taken the House in 2010, people are looking for real change. Many of those people might turn toward the LP. And a moderate Libertarian with an excellent record as a former Governor is someone who can appeal to those people.

I understand the point you're trying to make, though I don't think Perot is a good analogy.  He drew independents, Republicans, and Democrats.  I doubt libertarians accounted for much of his 18-20 percent.  

I don't think Republicans, Democrats, or independents are going to vote for Gary Johnson in significant numbers, because he'll be running on a platform that the  majority of the country doesn't support.  

[Fury]

I mean exactly what I said

btw - if your hero RP were elected the economy would take a nose dive from where it is today

Care to explain how? Contrary to what you believe, spending a few trillion more on stimulus won't fix anything.

[Soul Crusher]

Care to explain how? Contrary to what you believe, spending a few trillion more on stimulus won't fix anything.

Correction: 

Spending 5 Trillion did not fix anything.   

Obama pissed away 5 Trillion and has nothing to show for it.   

Lemmings like Straw think if only GhettoBama spent 10 Trillion we would have recovered.   

[headhuntersix]

Johnson isn't a threat, not even close. If Romney is smart, once RP is clearly out, he has to sit down with him and talk. RP would never endorse Romney but if the GOP is smart they have to give RP some buy in. His domestics are very sound and in keeping with the Constitution. Hey Straw...its your guy who's killing the country..shut the fuck up. RP would be fine with business and the economy. The GOP needs to adpot some of his positions...even better if they could get RP to attack Obama on all those points.

[Soul Crusher]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/2012_presidential_matchups


Romney is the only guy so far showing evidence he can beat Maobama. 

[Straw Man]

Correction: 

Spending 5 Trillion did not fix anything.   

Obama pissed away 5 Trillion and has nothing to show for it.   

Lemmings like Straw think if only GhettoBama spent 10 Trillion we would have recovered.   

where are you getting that 5 trillion # from?

[Fury]

where are you getting that 5 trillion # from?

Are you going to explain how Paul would tank the economy or is this going to be another thread that you run away from (your M.O.)?

[Straw Man]

Are you going to explain how Paul would tank the economy or is this going to be another thread that you run away from (your M.O.)?

are you joking dude

I entertain your stupidity ad nauseum

you originally asked me if I'd "care to explain how" and the answer for now is no

I don't have the time nor do I care to waste what little time I have on you

I'll take a page out of your book and tell you you're welcome to do a google search and you'll find pages and pages of critique of "Ron Paul's Plan to Restore America"

[Fury]

And the pussy chooses to run from this thread aka he can't explain how because he's too fucking stupid to understand any economic concept that doesn't involve "spend as much as you can print, br0s!"

What a joke.