Author Topic: Roark's Official Economics Thread  (Read 6278 times)

howardroark

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George Whorewell

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Re: Roark's Official Economics Thread
« Reply #26 on: January 21, 2012, 09:45:54 AM »
You flatter me, George, but why the fuck would I want to be mod? lol

Ron has a very generous compensation package available. One day unpaid vacation, 10% off muscletech products at a GNC in Palo Alto California and a free getbig tee shirt with a picture of Vince Goodrum in a posedown against Billy Guns.

My question is, why the fuck wouldn't you want to be a mod?

howardroark

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Re: Roark's Official Economics Thread
« Reply #27 on: January 21, 2012, 10:27:33 AM »
10% off muscletech products? Now you're talking!  :D ::) 8)

howardroark

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Why Your Grandfather's Economics Was Better Than Yours
« Reply #28 on: January 21, 2012, 10:57:40 AM »


The interview brings out a fundamental disagreement between the classical and Austrian economists vs. the Keynesians. Keynesians view depressions as deficient aggregate demand - classical and Austrian economists view depressions as a mismatch between the structure of demand and the structure of supply. This is because the classical and Austrian economists accept (and understand) Say's law, while Keynesians reject (and don't understand) it.

Say's law is basically the proposition that "supply constitutes demand," or that aggregate (total) supply cannot exceed aggregate (total) demand. What this means is that all the purchasing power in the economy is derived from the production of goods - thus, one cannot stimulate demand by printing more money or by spending more, since this fails to increase purchasing power. The only way to conceivably increase purchasing power (and thus demand) is by producing more (increasing supply). This is the REAL supply-side economics.

Keynes "refuted" Say's law by claiming that if Say's law were true, then there would never be depressions or involuntary unemployment. But this is false - the classical economists, including JB Say, explained the occurrence of depressions as a mismatch between supply and demand, meaning that the products consumers demanded were not being produced in sufficient quantities while the goods being produced were not the ones that consumers wanted. Thus, purchasing power collapsed and the economy was sent spiraling into a depression, until the point when resources were reallocated from the industries producing goods that were not demanded to the industries producing goods that were demanded. At that point, the economy would recover as purchasing power would rise again.

Does anyone recognize how this is a much better explanation of our recent economic history, like the housing bubble, the tech bubble, and the S&L crisis, than the standard Keynesian explanation of "deficient demand?" The classical explanation matches up perfectly with our recent experience of housing being overproduced and overpriced whereas the Keynesian explanation fails to even recognize this fact.

Ludwig von Mises, the 20th century Austrian economist, explained how such a mismatch between supply and demand could occur - by the government intervening in credit markets by supporting the creation of new credit unbacked by savings. Such credit expansion lowers interest rates and makes certain investment projects appear more profitable than they otherwise would be. In such a case, investment in these projects rises until the newly created credit ends up in the hands of consumers, at which point they spend it according to their preferences. This spending then unveils that consumers had really wanted more consumer goods and less investment goods - at which point the consumer goods industries outbid the investment goods industries for intermediate inputs (resources used toward production), causing those investment goods industries to become unprofitable, consequently leading to a collapse of purchasing power and a depression.

Note that the classical and Austrian explanation of depressions is essentially a MICROeconomic explanation, while the Keynesian/monetarist explanation is essentially a MACROeconomic one. The essentials of the classical/Austrian explanation get lost in all of the aggregated macro constructs Keynesians use to "prove" their case - constructs such as GDP, "aggregate demand," "aggregate supply," capital (K), labor (L), etc.

Here is a lecture by Dr. Steven Kates regarding the subject of Say's law and the classical explanation of business cycles:


The good stuff in the lecture starts about half-way in, so be patient while watching. His book, Say's Law and the Keynesian Revolution: How Macroeconomic Theory Lost its Way is excellent, I highly recommend it for serious econ nerds.

howardroark

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The Business Cycle Explained In Five Minutes
« Reply #29 on: January 21, 2012, 11:25:06 AM »
Good video laying out the basics of the Austrian theory of the business cycle:

Soul Crusher

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Re: Roark's Official Economics Thread
« Reply #30 on: January 23, 2012, 12:36:54 PM »

howardroark

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The Fed Should Be Abolished - Thomas Sowell
« Reply #31 on: January 23, 2012, 03:18:34 PM »
Thomas Sowell saying that the Fed should be abolished:


A Professional

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Re: Roark's Official Economics Thread
« Reply #32 on: January 23, 2012, 10:38:22 PM »
Great thread! *bookmarked*

Hugo Chavez

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Re: The Fed Should Be Abolished - Thomas Sowell
« Reply #33 on: January 23, 2012, 10:45:15 PM »
Love the last line: "when someone removes the canser, what do you replace it with?"  That's an excellent question that totally goes along with everything Ron Paul has said but he hasn't quite said like that. 

howardroark

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Re: Roark's Official Economics Thread
« Reply #34 on: January 24, 2012, 07:47:28 AM »
Bookmarked and stickied! Thanks guys  ;D 8)

Soul Crusher

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Re: Roark's Official Economics Thread
« Reply #35 on: January 25, 2012, 07:41:34 AM »

howardroark

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The Roots of Economic Growth
« Reply #36 on: January 26, 2012, 07:44:32 AM »
Randall Holcombe, economics professor at Florida State University, debunks the mainstream, mechanical approach to economic growth and offers the Austrian alternative, which focuses on the process of production and entrepreneurship:



Some familiarity with the Solow growth model is helpful when watching the video, but not necessary.

soccerbill

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Re: Roark's Official Economics Thread
« Reply #37 on: January 27, 2012, 06:13:24 PM »
Wow.  Superb work Howard.  I should log on here more often!  I bought Economics in One Lesson for number 2 son this Christmas.  I mentioned to you elsewhere that my stepson got Anthem.  But I just wanted to tell you how great this thread is.

howardroark

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Re: Roark's Official Economics Thread
« Reply #38 on: January 27, 2012, 06:24:32 PM »
Wow.  Superb work Howard.  I should log on here more often!  I bought Economics in One Lesson for number 2 son this Christmas.  I mentioned to you elsewhere that my stepson got Anthem.  But I just wanted to tell you how great this thread is.

Thank you!  ;D 8)

Economics In One Lesson is a good introductory book, good job raising your kids the right way  :P

Soul Crusher

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Re: Roark's Official Economics Thread
« Reply #39 on: January 30, 2012, 01:45:05 PM »

howardroark

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New Support for Friedman's Plucking Model
« Reply #40 on: February 01, 2012, 06:30:25 AM »
Friedman's plucking model shows that the economy never overheats - and thus is an important tool to use against standard Keynesian economics in favor of more rational explanations of the business cycle, like those of the Austrian school.

Here is the article itself: http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2006/01/new_support_for.html

Milton Friedman's "plucking model" is an interesting alternative to the natural rate of output view of the world. The typical view of business cycles is one where the economy varies around a trend value (the trend can vary over time also). Milton Friedman has a different story. In Friedman's model, output moves along a ceiling value, the full employment value, and is occasionally plucked downward through a negative demand shock. [Howard Roark's Commentary: One thing you should learn from my thread is that negative demand shocks are the result of negative supply shocks.]

[...]

One reason I've always liked this paper is that Friedman first wrote it in 1964. He then waited for almost twenty years for new data to arrive and retested his model using only the new data. In macroeconomics, we often encounter a problem in testing theoretical models. We know what the data look like and what facts need to be explained by our models. Is it sensible to build a model to fit the data and then use that data to test it to see if it fits? Of course the model will fit the data, it was built to do so. Friedman avoided that problem since he had no way of knowing if the next twenty years of data would fit the model or not. It did. I was at an SF Fed Conference when he gave the 1993 paper and it was a fun and convincing presentation.

Let me try, within my limited artistic ability, to illustrate further. If you haven't seen a plucking model, here's a graph to illustrate (see Piger and Morley and Kim and Nelson for evidence supporting the plucking model and figures illustrating the plucking and natural rate characterizations of the data). The "plucks" are the deviations of the red line from blue line representing the ceiling/trend:


Notice that the size of the downturn from the ceiling from  a→b (due to the "pluck") is predictive of the size of the upturn from b→c that follows taking account of the slope of the trend. I didn't show it, but in this model the size of the boom, the movement from b→c, does not predict the size of the subsequent contraction. This is the evidence that Friedman originally used to support the plucking model. In a natural rate model, there is no reason to expect such a correlation. Here's an example natural rate model:


Here, the size of the downturn a→b does not predict the size of the subsequent boom b→c. Friedman found the size of a→b predicts b→c supporting the plucking model over the natural rate model.

howardroark

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Bush Deficits Explained
« Reply #41 on: February 01, 2012, 04:51:59 PM »
Were the Bush deficits the result of the Bush tax cuts - or something else? Let's examine the data:

Federal government spending as a percent of GDP in the 90's:


Bill "The Era of Big Government is over" Clinton:


Federal government spending as a percent of GDP during George W. Bush's term:


Dick "Deficits Don't Matter" Cheney:


So could it be that the Bush deficits weren't the result of tax cuts, but of too much spending?

Soul Crusher

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Re: Roark's Official Economics Thread
« Reply #42 on: February 01, 2012, 06:34:34 PM »
I. THE BROKEN WINDOW

Have you ever witnessed the anger of the good shopkeeper, James B., when his careless son happened to break a square of glass? If you have been present at such a scene, you will most assuredly bear witness to the fact, that every one of the spectators, were there even thirty of them, by common consent apparently, offered the unfortunate owner this invariable consolation - "It is an ill wind that blows nobody good. Everybody must live, and what would become of the glaziers if panes of glass were never broken?"

Now, this form of condolence contains an entire theory, which it will be well to show up in this simple case, seeing that it is precisely the same as that which, unhappily, regulates the greater part of our economical institutions.

Suppose it cost six francs to repair the damage, and you say that the accident brings six francs to the glazier's trade - that it encourages that trade to the amount of six francs - I grant it; I have not a word to say against it; you reason justly. The glazier comes, performs his task, receives his six francs, rubs his hands, and, in his heart, blesses the careless child. All this is that which is seen.

But if, on the other hand, you come to the conclusion, as is too often the case, that it is a good thing to break windows, that it causes money to circulate, and that the encouragement of industry in general will be the result of it, you will oblige me to call out, "Stop there! your theory is confined to that which is seen; it takes no account of that which is not seen."

It is not seen that as our shopkeeper has spent six francs upon one thing, he cannot spend them upon another. It is not seen that if he had not had a window to replace, he would, perhaps, have replaced his old shoes, or added another book to his library. In short, he would have employed his six francs in some way, which this accident has prevented.

Let us take a view of industry in general, as affected by this circumstance. The window being broken, the glazier's trade is encouraged to the amount of six francs; this is that which is seen. If the window had not been broken, the shoemaker's trade (or some other) would have been encouraged to the amount of six francs; this is that which is not seen.

And if that which is not seen is taken into consideration, because it is a negative fact, as well as that which is seen, because it is a positive fact, it will be understood that neither industry in general, nor the sum total of national labour, is affected, whether windows are broken or not.

Now let us consider James B. himself. In the former supposition, that of the window being broken, he spends six francs, and has neither more nor less than he had before, the enjoyment of a window.

In the second, where we suppose the window not to have been broken, he would have spent six francs on shoes, and would have had at the same time the enjoyment of a pair of shoes and of a window.

Now, as James B. forms a part of society, we must come to the conclusion, that, taking it altogether, and making an estimate of its enjoyments and its labours, it has lost the value of the broken window.

When we arrive at this unexpected conclusion: "Society loses the value of things which are uselessly destroyed;" and we must assent to a maxim which will make the hair of protectionists stand on end - To break, to spoil, to waste, is not to encourage national labour; or, more briefly, "destruction is not profit."

What will you say, Monsieur Industriel -- what will you say, disciples of good M. F. Chamans, who has calculated with so much precision how much trade would gain by the burning of Paris, from the number of houses it would be necessary to rebuild?

I am sorry to disturb these ingenious calculations, as far as their spirit has been introduced into our legislation; but I beg him to begin them again, by taking into the account that which is not seen, and placing it alongside of that which is seen. The reader must take care to remember that there are not two persons only, but three concerned in the little scene which I have submitted to his attention. One of them, James B., represents the consumer, reduced, by an act of destruction, to one enjoyment instead of two. Another under the title of the glazier, shows us the producer, whose trade is encouraged by the accident. The third is the shoemaker (or some other tradesman), whose labour suffers proportionably by the same cause. It is this third person who is always kept in the shade, and who, personating that which is not seen, is a necessary element of the problem. It is he who shows us how absurd it is to think we see a profit in an act of destruction. It is he who will soon teach us that it is not less absurd to see a profit in a restriction, which is, after all, nothing else than a partial destruction. Therefore, if you will only go to the root of all the arguments which are adduced in its favour, all you will find will be the paraphrase of this vulgar saying - What would become of the glaziers, if nobody ever broke windows?



http://bastiat.org/en/twisatwins.html



whork

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Re: Roark's Official Economics Thread
« Reply #43 on: February 09, 2012, 07:37:38 AM »
Bump

RP is the only candidate with the same wiev on economics...yet he doesnt get the vote because he doesnt want to bomb other countries..shame

Soul Crusher

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Re: Roark's Official Economics Thread
« Reply #44 on: February 09, 2012, 01:58:32 PM »

Soul Crusher

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Re: Roark's Official Economics Thread
« Reply #45 on: February 11, 2012, 08:10:31 AM »

Soul Crusher

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Re: Roark's Official Economics Thread
« Reply #46 on: February 11, 2012, 08:16:32 AM »

Soul Crusher

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Re: Roark's Official Economics Thread
« Reply #47 on: February 11, 2012, 11:21:25 AM »

whork

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Re: Roark's Official Economics Thread
« Reply #48 on: February 12, 2012, 03:26:04 AM »
I love this thread

Soul Crusher

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Re: Roark's Official Economics Thread
« Reply #49 on: February 13, 2012, 10:13:10 AM »