http://www.harrisinteractive.com/NewsRoom/HarrisPolls/tabid/447/mid/1508/articleId/966/ctl/ReadCustom%20Default/Default.aspx If the presidential election were held today, 46% of Americans would vote for President Obama, 37% would vote for Mitt Romney and 17% are not at all sure. Last month, two in five U.S. adults (43%) said they would vote for President Obama while 39% said they would vote for Mitt Romney. Among Independents, it's a slightly closer race with 43% voting for the President and 37% voting for the former governor and 46% of adults in the 2012 Swing States (Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia) would vote for President Obama and 39% would vote for Mitt Romney.
Here is a look at the trend:
October: Obama 41, Romney 40
November: Obama 41, Romney 41
December: Obama 43, Romney 40
January: Obama 43, Romney 39
February: Obama 46, Romney 37
So, it's clear, after tying with Obama in November, that Romney has faded against Obama nationally. He's improved his numbers in the last three months. So, going by the trend alone, on election day, Obama will hold a 60-35 lead over Romney nationally.