Author Topic: Disastrous April jobs report. 119k added on expectations of 175k.  (Read 4235 times)

Fury

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 21026
  • All aboard the USS Leverage
ADP Misses Big, Prints Lowest Increase Since September; Manufacturing Jobs Post Shocking Decline

Those hoping Goldman's NFP forecast of 125,000, well below consensus, is wrong, may have to reassess their thesis following the just released ADP number which came as a big disappointment to consensus of 170,000, instead printing at only +119,000, to 110,590. (The previous improvement was also downward revised from +209K to +201). This was the lowest sequential change since September 2011, and confirms once again, the declining trends last seen in... 2011. It was also the biggest miss in 11 months. Luckily, as the scatterplot below shows, ADP is completely meaningless when predicting NFP so our gut reaction would be to expect a beat in NFP based on this print considering the whole Schrodinger economy and what not (see China). However, on an apples to apples basis, one thing is certain: record warm winter payback is a bitch. And finally, that whole Obama export renaissance is not doing all too hot: goods producing sector: -4,000 in April, while manufacturing jobs declined by -5,000. But, but, the soaring ISM..... oh forget it.



From the press release, where we find Hopium is back:

“According to data shown in the ADP National Employment Report, monthly employment gains averaged just over 200,000 during the first quarter of this year,” said Carlos Rodriguez, President and CEO of ADP. “This month’s modest increase of 119,000 jobs appears consistent with the first-quarter Gross Domestic Product growth of 2.2 percent.
 
We hope future rates of job creation will be more aggressive and sustained,” Rodriguez added.
 
According to Joel Prakken, Chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, “While April’s increase was the twenty-seventh consecutive monthly advance, it nonetheless reflected a deceleration in the recent pace of hiring. This deceleration seems consistent with other incoming data, including a disappointingly weak report on first-quarter Gross Domestic Product, a recent back-up in initial unemployment claims, and last month’s relatively weak reading on establishment employment reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.”
 
Prakken added: “There is some evidence that unusually warm weather boosted employment during the winter months, with a “payback” now coming due. The modest rise in private employment suggests that the national unemployment rate probably did not decline in April unless there was a notable decline in the labor force.”

From the report:


Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 119,000 from March to April on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated gain from February to March was revised down modestly, from the initial estimate of 209,000 to a revised estimate of 201,000.
 
Employment in the private, service-providing sector increased 123,000 in April, after rising 158,000 in March. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector declined 4,000 jobs in April. Manufacturing employment dropped 5,000 jobs, the first loss since September of last year.
 
Employment on large payrolls—those with 500 or more workers—increased 4,000 and employment on medium payrolls—those with 50 to 499 workers—rose 57,000 in April.
 
Employment on small payrolls—those with up to 49 workers—rose 58,000 that same period. Of the 57,000 jobs created by medium- sized businesses, 8,000 jobs were created by the goods-producing sector and 49,000 jobs were created by the service-providing sector.
 
Construction employment also fell by 5,000, the first decline in seven months and following healthy gains during the unusually warm winter months. Employment in the financial services sector increased 13,000 in April, marking nine consecutive monthly gains there.








http://www.zerohedge.com/news/adp-misses-big-prints-lowest-increase-september-manufacturing-jobs-post-shocking-decline



Obama saved America via seasonal retail temp jobs! What a sad joke. Can't wait to see the drones ignore this thread like the plague.


FOUR MORE YEARS!
FOUR MORE YEARS!
FOUR MORE YEARS!
FOUR MORE YEARS!

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 41760
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
This means fridays number is likly to be lower than this since that has been the pattern. 

The fact is that the economy is dead.   We are not in freefall, but we are going backwards since in the next few months hundreds of thousands of newe college grads will be entering the work force with no jobs at all.

Are they even counted? 

Fury

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 21026
  • All aboard the USS Leverage
This means fridays number is likly to be lower than this since that has been the pattern.  

The fact is that the economy is dead.   We are not in freefall, but we are going backwards since in the next few months hundreds of thousands of newe college grads will be entering the work force with no jobs at all.

Are they even counted?  

1 out of 2 college grads will be either unemployed or underemployed. Obama saved us all! It brings tears to my eyes knowing that someone so COOL could take time out of his COOL life to act like the COOL guy that he is and nonchalantly save us. He's just so COOL!

George Whorewell

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 7362
  • TND
1 out of 2 college grads will be either unemployed or underemployed. Obama saved us all! It brings tears to my eyes knowing that someone so COOL could take time out of his COOL life to act like the COOL guy that he is and nonchalantly save us. He's just so COOL!

Look, the solution is clear.

In the communist utopia Phd's will stand shoulder to shoulder with doctors, lawyers, carpenters, cooks and farmers-- digging ditches, working at government run factories and pouring cement.

I think that Osama's 2012 campaign slogan should be: "How much fairness, can you handle?"

Fury

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 21026
  • All aboard the USS Leverage
Look, the solution is clear.

In the communist utopia Phd's will stand shoulder to shoulder with doctors, lawyers, carpenters, cooks and farmers-- digging ditches, working at government run factories and pouring cement.

I think that Osama's 2012 campaign slogan should be: "How much fairness, can you handle?"

;D ;D ;D

I'll have to slightly disagree with you there, though. The first people the Khmer Rouge took care of were all the PhDs and other "intellectuals" that helped get them into power. They'll be the first to get lined up in the killing fields as they're not usually physically fit enough to dig ditches. They'll make a good soylent green, though.

George Whorewell

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 7362
  • TND
Indeed.

In Osama's vision however, such vermin will be relegated to menial positions on the President for life's permanent re-election campaign staff.


GigantorX

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 6380
  • GetBig's A-Team is the Light of Truth!
This gives the Fed more reason to put on another QE3, or whatever it will be called, and really push this thing off a cliff.

If it didn't work the first time and it didn't work the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th time.....well, it has to work this time!

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 41760
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.

Fury

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 21026
  • All aboard the USS Leverage
Obama saved America from the abyss. Another 20-30 years of this phenomenal job growth and all will be well.

Obama is so smart and cool and personable and just all-around AWESOME. He's paying for my gas, too!


FOUR MORE YEARS!
FOUR MORE YEARS!
FOUR MORE YEARS!
FOUR MORE YEARS!

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 41760
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
DATA SNAP: US March Factory Orders Post Biggest Drop In 3 Years
 Nasdaq ^


WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. factory orders fell at the sharpest pace in three years in March, a sign that demand is slowing amid an uneven economic recovery.

Orders for manufactured goods declined 1.5% to $460.46 billion, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That matched expectations of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires.

Factory orders over the previous month were revised down, as well, to a 1.1% increase from an initial estimate for a 1.3% gain.


(Excerpt) Read more at nasdaq.com ...

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 41760
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Re: Disastrous April jobs report. 119k added on expectations of 175k.
« Reply #10 on: May 02, 2012, 06:40:56 PM »
Skip to comments.

As Economy Sputters, Obama Tries Distraction
IBD Editorials ^ | May 2, 2012
Posted on May 2, 2012 9:31:45 PM EDT by Kaslin

Economy: It's no wonder President Obama wants to direct everyone's attention to far-off Afghanistan these days. The economic news here at home is looking increasingly grim.

Just 28 days after Time magazine ran an April 2 cover story boasting that "in the past few weeks, signs of economic expansion have been everywhere" it warned that "the economy might be stalling."

The article pointed to "disappointing" news that Q1 GDP had climbed just 2.2% — below expectations — and job growth in March was 120,000, also a miss.

Now, two more troubling signs have emerged. The government reported on Wednesday that new factory orders fell 1.5% in March, the steepest drop since March 2009, when the country was still in recession.

Then ADP reported that private employment climbed just 119,000 in April — the smallest gain in seven months and also far below expectations. The April employment report comes out Friday, which economists think will show an unimpressive 160,000 job gain.

Seems that, once again, all the talk about "green shoots" and "turning the corner" and reaching "escape velocity" are just more false hopes.

(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...

andreisdaman

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 16720
Re: Disastrous April jobs report. 119k added on expectations of 175k.
« Reply #11 on: May 02, 2012, 10:22:14 PM »
1 out of 2 college grads will be either unemployed or underemployed. Obama saved us all! It brings tears to my eyes knowing that someone so COOL could take time out of his COOL life to act like the COOL guy that he is and nonchalantly save us. He's just so COOL!

its amazing how when the job figures are good for Obama you criticize and say they are made up and when they go south you are on here touting them...your hypocrisy is amazing

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 41760
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Re: Disastrous April jobs report. 119k added on expectations of 175k.
« Reply #12 on: May 03, 2012, 03:26:47 AM »
its amazing how when the job figures are good for Obama you criticize and say they are made up and when they go south you are on here touting them...your hypocrisy is amazing

When have the jobs data ever been good under this disastrous regime? 

Fury

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 21026
  • All aboard the USS Leverage
Re: Disastrous April jobs report. 119k added on expectations of 175k.
« Reply #13 on: May 03, 2012, 05:16:18 AM »
its amazing how when the job figures are good for Obama you criticize and say they are made up and when they go south you are on here touting them...your hypocrisy is amazing

Ironic considering your "Obama is whooping my ass" posts a few months ago. Now you have nothing to say. How does it feel eating crow? You were cumming in your pants over holiday retail temp jobs when the rest of us called this coming. Now you're crying about how we don't praise Obama for creating 2 months worth of minimum wage jobs, haha.

Your hypocrisy is amazing. I'll give you credit, though, as I expected you to avoid this thread.

dario73

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 6467
  • Getbig!
Re: Disastrous April jobs report. 119k added on expectations of 175k.
« Reply #14 on: May 03, 2012, 05:30:19 AM »
its amazing how when the job figures are good for Obama you criticize and say they are made up and when they go south you are on here touting them...your hypocrisy is amazing
Hey, chump. The numbers were never good. You have 8230928402384 degrees, according to you, and you are still too stupid to understand that any "good" numbers in the winter were based on seasonal jobs. There are now more people on welfare THAN EVER BEFORE and A LOT LESS PEOPLE IN THE WORKFORCE.

Go back to basket weaving you liberal schmuck.

whork

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 6587
  • Getbig!
Re: Disastrous April jobs report. 119k added on expectations of 175k.
« Reply #15 on: May 03, 2012, 06:37:08 AM »
Funny how everybody thinks the pres has a major impact on the job situation

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 41760
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Re: Disastrous April jobs report. 119k added on expectations of 175k.
« Reply #16 on: May 03, 2012, 06:39:42 AM »
Funny how everybody thinks the pres has a major impact on the job situation

LOL - yes he does.   most businesses will not hire anyone until this communist ghetto looter is tossed from office. 


whork

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 6587
  • Getbig!
Re: Disastrous April jobs report. 119k added on expectations of 175k.
« Reply #17 on: May 03, 2012, 07:10:58 AM »
LOL - yes he does.   most businesses will not hire anyone until this communist ghetto looter is tossed from office. 



Sure ::)

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 41760
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Re: Disastrous April jobs report. 119k added on expectations of 175k.
« Reply #18 on: May 03, 2012, 07:13:01 AM »
Sure ::)

Yes sure blackass - why do you think this has been THE WORST RECOVERY IN THE HISTORY OF THIS NATION? 

Businesses have been on strike since the day pelosi and reid took over in the congress and this ghetto marxist piece of trash was nominated. 

dario73

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 6467
  • Getbig!
Re: Disastrous April jobs report. 119k added on expectations of 175k.
« Reply #19 on: May 03, 2012, 07:23:05 AM »
Funny how everybody thinks the pres has a major impact on the job situation

The ENTIRE Democratic Party and all the Liberal buffoons thought so after the Bush presidency.

Are you really this stupid? You try to defend Obama, but by your own "logic", Obama is a pretty "funny" guy since he spent his entire presidency blaming Bush.

How come your mind doesn't compute that Obama should be judged in the exact manner that he judged Bush?

whork

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 6587
  • Getbig!
Re: Disastrous April jobs report. 119k added on expectations of 175k.
« Reply #20 on: May 03, 2012, 07:24:05 AM »
Yes sure blackass - why do you think this has been THE WORST RECOVERY IN THE HISTORY OF THIS NATION? 

Businesses have been on strike since the day pelosi and reid took over in the congress and this ghetto marxist piece of trash was nominated. 

Im not black ???

Alright then i guess the day Romney is elected our un-employment drops and our economy is fine again.

Obama is shit ( Larry Summers anyone) but take your colored glasses of Romney cant do a damn thing either


Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 41760
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Re: Disastrous April jobs report. 119k added on expectations of 175k.
« Reply #21 on: May 03, 2012, 09:22:37 AM »
Another Hint Of Bad Jobs News...
Joe Weisenthal|May 3, 2012, 8:08 AM|833|4


From this months Challenger Layoffs Report:




 
The pace of downsizing remained virtually unchanged in April, as U.S.-based employers announced planned job cuts totaling 40,559 during the month. That is a 7.1 percent increase from 37,880 job cuts announced in March, according to the latest job-cut report released Thursday by global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

April job cuts were up 11.2 percent from the same month a year ago, when employers announced 36,490 planned cuts, the lowest monthly total recorded in 2011.
 
That 11.2% jump is a turnaround from last month's fall of 8%.
 
What's weird is how different this number is than initial jobless claims, which have been steadily 5-10% below a year ago levels.


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/challenger-job-cuts-2012-5#ixzz1tpAlM7qA


Fury

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 21026
  • All aboard the USS Leverage
Re: Disastrous April jobs report. 119k added on expectations of 175k.
« Reply #22 on: May 03, 2012, 09:24:02 AM »
Funny how Obama told the GOP and everyone else to get in the back seat because he was driving this rig. Flash forward 2 years and now we get token Andre on here trying to push blame off of him. Color me surprised.  ::)

Soul Crusher

  • Competitors
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 41760
  • Doesnt lie about lifting.
Re: Disastrous April jobs report. 119k added on expectations of 175k.
« Reply #23 on: May 03, 2012, 09:25:18 AM »
Funny how Obama told the GOP and everyone else to get in the back seat because he was driving this rig. Flash forward 2 years and now we get token Andre on here trying to push blame off of him. Color me surprised.  ::)

Other than petty personal insults, they have nothing at all.   

Fury

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 21026
  • All aboard the USS Leverage
Re: Disastrous April jobs report. 119k added on expectations of 175k.
« Reply #24 on: May 03, 2012, 12:28:07 PM »
Bump. I don't see a single Obama drone posting in this thread.