Jobs report - 500k+ people dropped from labor force - 200k added BD Index

[Soul Crusher]

Welcome to the Stag-Nation
 BobKrum.com ^ | 5-4-12 | Bob Krumm

Posted on Friday, May 04, 2012 11:37:41 AM by radioone

This is what a stagnant economy looks like. The gain of 115,000 jobs is less than enough to keep up with population increases, and was below the median economic forecast for April. The only reason that the unemployment rate “fell” to 8.1% is because the labor force participation rate keeps dropping. If you stop looking for work, you aren’t unemployed. But you’re not employed either. You’re just “missing.” You don’t count.

Welcome to the country we now live in: the Stag-Nation.

UPDATE:

Labor force participation rate drops by a staggering 522,000 to the lowest level since 1981. That, btw, was two years before Mr. Mom, a movie about the entry of women into the workforce, forced there by the bad economy. This economy is so bad that women are kicked out of the workforce to a rate not seen in over 30 years.

I wonder what Julia’s going to do now.





(Excerpt) Read more at bobkrumm.com ...

[Soul Crusher]

Romney blasts Obama on jobs, calls April figures 'terrible'

By Jonathan Easley - 05/04/12 09:30 AM ET

Mitt Romney used the April jobs report to rip President Obama on Friday for his handling of the economy.

In an op-ed to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Romney said Obama, who will officially launch his reelection campaign on Saturday with rallies in Ohio and Virginia, had offered only hollow promises on the economy.


And in an interview on Fox News, Romney said April’s jobs report, which showed the economy gaining 115,000 jobs, was too weak.
 
“We should be seeing numbers in the [range of] 500,000 jobs created per month,” Romney told Fox News. “This is way, way, way off from what should happen in a normal recovery.”

Unemployment dropped to 8.1 percent in April, but that was because workers gave up their search for a job.
 
“The reason that you’re seeing the unemployment rate go down is because you have more people dropping out of the workforce than you have getting jobs,” Romney continued. “It’s a terrible and very disappointing report this morning.”


In his op-ed, Romney asked: “Where are the jobs?”

“Mr. President, forgive me for being blunt,” Romney wrote. “But when it comes to economic affairs, you're out of your depth. Unlike you, I am not a career politician. Unlike you, I've spent more than two decades working in the private sector, starting new businesses and turning around failing ones. Undoing the damage you've done will be a daunting challenge. But I've learned a thing or two about how government policies can kill private investment and stifle job creation, and I have a plan to get government out of the way.”

The Obama campaign argues the president inherited a recession from President George W. Bush, and that he is presiding over an economic recovery.

 The message is highlighted in a seven-minute Web ad released by Obama’s campaign this week.
 
“On the day Barack Obama took office, America had already lost 4.4 million jobs in economic disaster, the worst in a generation,” the narrator says.

The ad then ticks off the president’s accomplishments: the stimulus, the auto bailout, increased manufacturing jobs, and credit card industry and Wall Street reform.
 
The ad reiterates the Obama campaign’s argument that Romney would reinstate the policies of the Bush administration, undoing Obama's accomplishments on the economy.
 
Romney argues Obama did inherit a crisis but that the president has failed to turn it around after three years on the job.

“I recognize, of course, as do all Americans, that you inherited an economic crisis,” Romney writes in the op-ed. “But you've now had three years to turn things around. The record of those three years is clear. Your policies have failed, not only in Ohio, but across the nation.”

Polling overwhelmingly suggests that the economy and jobs will be the two most important issues to voters in the fall election, and Romney currently has an edge over the president over whom voters believe is better equipped to handle those issues.
 
In Ohio, polls show Romney and Obama in a neck-and-neck race. It is a state that Romney probably has to win if he is to defeat Obama in the fall.

http://thehill.com/video/campaign/225435-romney-blasts-obama-on-jobs-calls-april-figures-terrible





NOW - 240 - STFU YOU LYING TROLL!  You are probably the most dishonest and decietful person I have ever come across.   You lie!

[Soul Crusher]

People Not In Labor Force Soar By 522,000, Labor Force Participation Rate Lowest Since 1981
 Zero Hedge ^ | May 4, 2012 | Tyler Durden



it is just getting sad now. In April the number of people not in the labor force rose by a whopping 522,000 from 87,897,000 to 88,419,000. This is the highest on record. The flip side, and the reason why the unemployment dropped to 8.1% is that the labor force participation rate just dipped to a new 30 year low of 64.3%. ...


(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...





4 MORE FNG YEARS!!!!
4 MORE FNG YEARS !!!!!

[Soul Crusher]

The civilian labor force shrank in April by 342,000 workers, and remains below where it stood when the economic recovery started 34 months ago, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Had the labor force not declined, unemployment would have been 8.3% in April, instead of the 8.1% reported.


 That same month, more than 225,000 workers applied for Social Security disability benefits, and nearly 90,000 were enrolled, according to new data from the Social Security Administration.

 Compared with June 2009, the month the economic recovery officially started, the labor force has shrunk by 365,000, a trend that has never occurred in any post World War 11 recovery. Those saw the labor force climb by the millions by this point in their recoveries, even as unemployment rates were driven down.

 http://news.investors.com/article/610306/201205040931/labor-force-shrinks-as-disability-grows.htm

 

As IBD reported recently, more than 5 million workers and their families have enrolled in the disability program since Obama took office.

[MM2K]

Oh, but didnt you hear, he inherited a crisis. It takes atleast  3.5 years to undo the damage of George Bush, because Bush messed up, soooo bad. The economy crashed for the past 10 years, so it will take atleast that long to get back to where we were in the Clinton years. What's that? Oh, you say that Bush had 5% unemployment for most of his years? What? You say that Bush inherited a recession like Obama did? What? The tech bubble crash happened in Clinton's last year? Just like the housing bubble crashed in Bush's last year? You mean presidents dont control the economy? Oh, ookaay, there is a thing called the business cycle. Oh, you mean that Republicans were in control in the 90s? Wow, I didnt know they controlled all other levels of government during the 90s. They controlled 2/3 of governerships in the late 90s? And more state legislatures than usual? You mean Clinton governed more as a conservative than Bush, when the GOP controlled Congress? Ok, I have been shown how ignorant I am, and that a Humanities based degree does not prepare me for the real world or even begins to tell me how the world works. Ill go back in my shell where reality doesnt comport.

[MM2K]

Have you guys noticed that the media pansies have finally started to catch on to the problem of the declining LFP rate and therefore arent getting a tingle up thier leg anymore over the declining unemployment rate?

[Soul Crusher]

Have you guys noticed that the media pansies have finally started to catch on to the problem of the declining LFP rate and therefore arent getting a tingle up thier leg anymore over the declining unemployment rate?

I still have a few liberal pieces of shit on my FB trying to convince me things are improving.   I ask them for data and they can't come up with anything whatsoever other than blame Bush.     

[Soul Crusher]

Rick Santelli Blasts Liberal Media’s “Ostrich Economics” (Video)
 Gateway Pundit ^ | May 4, 2012 | Jim Hoft

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/05/rick-santelli-blasts-liberal-medias-ostrich-economics-video



Rick Santelli blasted the liberal media’s reporting on today’s dismal unemployment numbers. The CNBC star ridiculed the “Ostrich Economics” being pushed by the Obama-media.

Here’s Santelli on the latest unemployment data.

There are some highlights I’d really like to hit. The first one is that about 41.3% of unemployed have been unemployed for 39.1 weeks. That is huge and pretty much says it all. This is the weakest recovery since the Great Depression. A whole 4/5ths of the drop of the unemployment rate is due to a drop in the labor force participation. It is the lowest since 1981.

Many of regiohal news shows were reporting on just the unemployment rate. That’s “ostrich economics.”


(Excerpt) Read more at thegatewaypundit.com ...

[Soul Crusher]

Romney blasts Obama on jobs, calls April figures 'terrible'

By Jonathan Easley - 05/04/12 09:30 AM ET

Mitt Romney used the April jobs report to rip President Obama on Friday for his handling of the economy.

In an op-ed to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Romney said Obama, who will officially launch his reelection campaign on Saturday with rallies in Ohio and Virginia, had offered only hollow promises on the economy.


And in an interview on Fox News, Romney said April’s jobs report, which showed the economy gaining 115,000 jobs, was too weak.
 
“We should be seeing numbers in the [range of] 500,000 jobs created per month,” Romney told Fox News. “This is way, way, way off from what should happen in a normal recovery.”

Unemployment dropped to 8.1 percent in April, but that was because workers gave up their search for a job.
 
“The reason that you’re seeing the unemployment rate go down is because you have more people dropping out of the workforce than you have getting jobs,” Romney continued. “It’s a terrible and very disappointing report this morning.”


In his op-ed, Romney asked: “Where are the jobs?”

“Mr. President, forgive me for being blunt,” Romney wrote. “But when it comes to economic affairs, you're out of your depth. Unlike you, I am not a career politician. Unlike you, I've spent more than two decades working in the private sector, starting new businesses and turning around failing ones. Undoing the damage you've done will be a daunting challenge. But I've learned a thing or two about how government policies can kill private investment and stifle job creation, and I have a plan to get government out of the way.”

The Obama campaign argues the president inherited a recession from President George W. Bush, and that he is presiding over an economic recovery.

 The message is highlighted in a seven-minute Web ad released by Obama’s campaign this week.
 
“On the day Barack Obama took office, America had already lost 4.4 million jobs in economic disaster, the worst in a generation,” the narrator says.

The ad then ticks off the president’s accomplishments: the stimulus, the auto bailout, increased manufacturing jobs, and credit card industry and Wall Street reform.
 
The ad reiterates the Obama campaign’s argument that Romney would reinstate the policies of the Bush administration, undoing Obama's accomplishments on the economy.
 
Romney argues Obama did inherit a crisis but that the president has failed to turn it around after three years on the job.

“I recognize, of course, as do all Americans, that you inherited an economic crisis,” Romney writes in the op-ed. “But you've now had three years to turn things around. The record of those three years is clear. Your policies have failed, not only in Ohio, but across the nation.”

Polling overwhelmingly suggests that the economy and jobs will be the two most important issues to voters in the fall election, and Romney currently has an edge over the president over whom voters believe is better equipped to handle those issues.
 
In Ohio, polls show Romney and Obama in a neck-and-neck race. It is a state that Romney probably has to win if he is to defeat Obama in the fall.

http://thehill.com/video/campaign/225435-romney-blasts-obama-on-jobs-calls-april-figures-terrible





NOW - 240 - STFU YOU LYING TROLL!  You are probably the most dishonest and decietful person I have ever come across.   You lie!

[240 is Back]

“The reason that you’re seeing the unemployment rate go down is because you have more people dropping out of the workforce than you have getting jobs,” Romney continued. “It’s a terrible and very disappointing report this morning.”


Um, MSNBC pointed this out as well.  THAT is romney's brutal response?   None of the "Obama is lying, and the real number is ...."

No, he gives us the same reason MSNBC does, and that's it?  I'm disappointed.  I heard that at 10:02 AM this morning, right beofre I switched to ESPN2 for colin cowherd show.

I expected more from mitt than to parrot msnbc. 

[Soul Crusher]

“The reason that you’re seeing the unemployment rate go down is because you have more people dropping out of the workforce than you have getting jobs,” Romney continued. “It’s a terrible and very disappointing report this morning.”


Um, MSNBC pointed this out as well.  THAT is romney's brutal response?   None of the "Obama is lying, and the real number is ...."

No, he gives us the same reason MSNBC does, and that's it?  I'm disappointed.  I heard that at 10:02 AM this morning, right beofre I switched to ESPN2 for colin cowherd show.

I expected more from mitt than to parrot msnbc. 

  

Yeah, because if myth said that they would spend 24/7 saying he was rude, arrogant, and dissrespectful instead of focusing on the fact that the messiah has failed. 

[240 is Back]

  

Yeah, because if myth said that they would spend 24/7 saying he was rude, arrogant, and dissrespectful instead of focusing on the fact that the messiah has failed. 

I dont think repeating MSNBC will win him moderate swing votes, OR inspire his base.

Santorum woudl be pointing out the fraud, i betcha.

[Soul Crusher]

Obama bundler Roger Altman said the BLS job report released Friday was “pretty disappointing” and that the health of the labor markets remains “profoundly weak” in a Bloomberg interview.

Altman was a deputy Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration and a senior economic adviser to 2004 Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry,
 

ROGER ALTMAN: Betty, I think it’s a pretty disappointing number. If you widen out the lens, we need 200,000 to 250,000 jobs to really make this, or to really illustrate that this is a healthy and strong recovery. We’re nowhere near that. This number, in contrast, confirms the idea of a bit of a pause in the recovery. It’s consistent with the 2.2 percent—the weak 2.2 percent real GDP we saw for the first quarter. I also don’t think that the unemployment rate is a particularly good measure right now of the health of labor markets. I think you have to look, again, more widely at the labor participation rate, and the unemployment to population ratio. Both of those have recovered far less—almost, very little actually—than the unemployment rate, so of course the unemployment rate is going to fall if the work force shrinks, but that’s not a good measure of the health of labor markets, which remain profoundly weak. We lost 8.8 million jobs since the onset of the recession—we’ve only gained back about 3 million of those. So, this isn’t the number that anyone would want to see. Sure, there are a few bright spots, but they’re few and far between.

 This entry was posted in Video and tagged Roger Altman. Bookmark the permalink.




________________________ __________________


Lets see one obama turd try to spin this.   


So is this recovery summer now? 

[240 is Back]

Lets see one obama turd try to spin this.   

So is this recovery summer now? 

Elizabeth Warren is not actually Cherokee.

[Soul Crusher]

29.7 Million Seek Work
 
by Vincent Giandurco



People ask, why all the talk about dogs and contraceptives?  The reason is: jobs.
 

Tomorrow the Labor Department will release its April employment report.  If the rate goes down, the administration will brag a bit, but they won't dwell on it.  They know that the unemployment rate does not reflect the actual number of people who need work.  Did you ever wonder how many of them are really out there?
 
Let's put it in pre-recession, real numbers perspective.  In July 2007, at the peak of the bling-years boom, there were 146.1 million people employed, 7.1 million unemployed, and 4.5 million working part-time "for economic reasons," which, added to the unemployed, gives the number for "underemployed” (U6). There were 78.7 million people not in the labor force. The unemployment rate was 4.6%.  

Last month, in March 2012, there were 142 million employed, 12.7 million unemployed, 7.7 million U6, and 87.9 million "not in the labor force". The unemployment rate is now (supposedly) 8.2%.

With 154.7 million in the labor force, 1% represents about 1.55 million people. The unemployment rate is 3.6% higher, so there ought to be about 5.4 million less people working than five years ago. That's not true. There are indeed 5.6 million more unemployed, but there are also a staggering 9.2 million more people "not in the labor force," most often because they can't find a job. That means the total number of additional people actually out of work compared to 2007 is 14.8 million, or 9.7% of the labor force. Add that to the original 4.6%, and the actual rate of unemployment is about 14.3%. Also, there are 3.2 million more people working part-time jobs because they can't find full-time work. Let’s add. Today, there are 18 million more people not working or unable to find the job they want than in 2007. Add in the original 7.1 million already unemployed in 2007, plus the original 4.6 million U6, and the total is 29.7 million.  In a universe of 155 million workers, the real U6 rate is thus approximately 19%. This is all Dept. of Labor data, offering an apples to apples comparison.  


These 29.7 million people are anonymous, nameless, faceless.  But the President's team knows they are out there, and that they are highly likely to vote.  So they don't want to talk about jobs.  They want to change the subject.  Hence, more talk about dogs and contraceptives.

[Soul Crusher]

April’s jobs: Americans aren’t working


By Felix Salmon

May 4, 2012




There’s a lot going on in this month’s jobs report. The headline number of jobs created — 115,000 — is miserable: it’s basically just enough to keep up with population growth. That’s the number the markets look at. The number the politicians look at, however, is the unemployment rate, which ticked down to 8.1%. That’s still high, but it’s not a statistic to beat Obama round the head with.
 
The big news, however, lies elsewhere, in the fact that a whopping 522,000 people left the labor force joined the “not in labor force” rolls last month. When more than half a million people in one month decide that they’re not even going to bother looking for work any more, there’s no way you can say you’re in a healthy recovery.
 
Zero Hedge has the two charts which matter. First you have the number of people not in the labor force, which has been climbing steadily through the recession and the recovery, and is now approaching 90 million. The only time it fell was during the first quarter of 2010 — the census-hiring boom. This chart speaks volumes to me: it says that while Capital might not be in a recession any more, Labor still isn’t working.
 
Then there’s the even scarier one, which is the labor force participation rate — now down to 63.6%.

This chart is just petrifying. The participation rate started falling after the dot-com bust, leveled off during the credit boom (but never really rose much), and then fell off a cliff when the recession started. You’d think it would have started to bounce back up by now, but no. Instead, we’re now deep into pretty much unprecedented territory. Yes, the participation rate has been this low before — back in 1981. But that was during the decades when women were still properly moving into the labor force.
 
As Mike Konczal noted this morning, a key indicator of labor recession is still in force: if you’re unemployed, you’re still more likely to drop out of the labor force entirely than you are to find a job. And as Dan Alpert noted, in a country of 314 million people, there are only 115 million full-time workers and 27 million part-time workers. It’s really hard to get a robust recovery when the number of people earning money is so anemic.
 
For demographic reasons — the retirement of the baby boomers — the labor force participation rate is naturally going to fall over the next decade. But go back just one year, to March 2011, and look at the official CBO projection of the labor force participation rate. The CBO saw a rate of 64.6% in 2012 — a full percentage point higher than we’re at right now. The participation rate wasn’t expected to fall to today’s level of 63.6% until 2017.
 
Politically speaking, the unemployment rate is still the number that people concentrate on. But increasingly, being unemployed is little more than a halfway house between employment and dropping out of the labor force altogether. Until the labor force participation rate stops falling and starts rising, the so-called recovery will remain a theoretical economic entity and not a real-world reality for hundreds of millions of Americans. We need jobs, and we need them now. Ben Bernanke, and Congress, are you listening?
 
Update: The labor force actually fell by 342,000, not 522,000. The working-age population grew by 180,000, however, so the number of people not in the labor force went up by 522,000.

[MM2K]

By the way, watch out for the libs who are trying to point out Europe's woes as "proof of why austerity doesnt work". They point to the lower spending. They conveniantly leave out the higher taxes that the morons there agreed to. My god, you would prefer higher taxes and high spending to high taxes and low spending. THat is the worst case scenario.

[Soul Crusher]

By the way, watch out for the libs who are trying to point out Europe's woes as "proof of why austerity doesnt work". They point to the lower spending. They conveniantly leave out the higher taxes that the morons there agreed to. My god, you would prefer higher taxes and high spending to high taxes and low spending. THat is the worst case scenario.

We have spent 5 trillion over three years - I dont want o hear shit from these keynsian freaks.  They have done enough damage for many lifetimes already. 

[Soul Crusher]

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Unemployment–behind the official numbers (the myth of the retiring baby boomers)
QandO ^ | May 4, 2012 | Bruce McQuain
Posted on May 4, 2012 7:59:52 PM EDT by BfloGuy

The eight hundred pound gorilla in the room when one discusses the unemployment rate is its accuracy.

8.1% of what? Apparently, it is 8.1% as measured by those still receiving unemployment benefits, i.e. “actively” seeking work (a requirement to continue to receive the benefits). Here’s the reality:

In April the number of people not in the labor force rose by a whopping 522,000 from 87,897,000 to 88,419,000. This is the highest on record. The flip side, and the reason why the unemployment dropped to 8.1% is that the labor force participation rate just dipped to a new 30 year low of 64.3%.
So, that means people have dropped out of the labor market and some have quit looking for work?

Yes. All one has to do is look at this chart and understand that a huge piece of the labor market has simply vanished from the statistics used to compute the official unemployment rate.



The current labor participation rate is equal to that of January 1982. From a high of 67.3% in January 2000, it has dropped 3% since. That is huge.

Yet, we’re only at 8.1%? Not bloody likely. Not if history is any gauge.



So who are the missing workers?

The conventional wisdom out there likes to explain that huge drop away by claiming that the baby boomers are most likely choosing to retire rather than seek work. They further claim there’s no reason to panic, it’s the old folks dropping out and they have their retirement to fall back on.

Really?



In fact, the older demographic has remained steady and, in fact, even seen job percentage increases among those thought to be retiring.

Job holders 55 and up have risen by 3.9 million — and fallen by 8.1 million among those under 55, Labor Department data show. It’s been 50 months and counting since payrolls peaked, a post-war record. Labor releases the April jobs report on Friday morning.
[…]

For the 65-69 and 70-74 groups, the employed shares are up 1.1 percentage points and 1.6 percentage points, respectively, over the past four years.

So much for that myth. In fact the early retiree level (i.e. those who claim Social Security at the lowest possible age – 62) dropped to 26.9% last year, the lowest since 1976.

As that final chart points out along with the accompanying stats, it isn’t the baby boomers who are causing the labor participation rate to drop. It is workers in the two younger demographics who’ve stopped getting benefits and still don’t have work.

Political implications? Well one can fudge the official numbers all one wishes, but unemployment is a personal thing. Official numbers don’t mean squat to someone without a job and is unlikely to convince them that things are better than they were.

Whether or not the official number drops below 8% before the election, the reality of unemployment to those 5 million without a job and not carried in the official number remains.

[Soul Crusher]

Jobs report shows effects of the incredible shrinking U.S. labor force
WASHINGTON POST ^ | 5/4/2012 | staff
Posted on May 4, 2012 9:44:14 PM EDT by tobyhill

If the same percentage of adults were in the workforce today as when Barack Obama took office, the unemployment rate would be 11.1 percent. If the percentage was where it was when George W. Bush took office, the unemployment rate would be 13.1 percent.

That helps explain a seeming contradiction in the unemployment numbers — the rate keeps dropping even though job creation has been soft.

In April, the U.S. economy added a mere 115,000 jobs, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday. In a normal month, that would not even be enough to keep up with new entrants into the labor market. But in this economy, it was enough to drive unemployment from 8.2 percent down to 8.1 percent, the lowest point since January 2009.

The explanation is a little-watched measure known as the “labor force participation rate.” That tracks the number of working-age Americans who are holding a job or looking for one. Between March and April, it dropped by 342,000. But because the official unemployment rate counts only those workers who are actively seeking work, that actually made the unemployment rate go down.

Critics of the Obama administration have been quick to seize on this as the real reason for the falling unemployment rate. In February, the Republican National Committee released a research note on “The Missing Worker,” arguing that “over 3 million unemployed workers have called it quits due to Obamanomics.”

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...

[Soul Crusher]

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8b0853fa-95e6-11e1-9d9d-00144feab49a.html#axzz1txbfiOV4



Straw, adre, Benny, blackass gaybear, licker? 

[Soul Crusher]

http://news.investors.com/article/610306/201205040931/labor-force-shrinks-as-disability-grows.htm


4 more years.     4 more years!!!

[Soul Crusher]

MAY 5, 2012
Obama's Payroll Disaster

By Mike Shedlock
5/5/2012
 
Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate

US Unemployment Rate fell .01 to 8.1%
 
In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,638,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 945,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,693,000.
 
The Civilian Labor Force fell by 342,000.
 
Those "Not in Labor Force" increased by 522,000. If you are not in the labor force, you are not counted as unemployed.
 
Those "Not in Labor Force" is at a new record high of 87,419,000.
 
By the Household Survey, the number of people employed fell by 169,000.
 
By the Household Survey, over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,237,000.
 
Participation Rate fell .2 to 63.6%
 
There are 7,853,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work
 
Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.

This month was another disaster. Actual employment fell by 169,000 and the only reason the unemployment rate dropped is the civilian labor force fell by 342,000. These numbers are well past the point of believability and will be revised at some point in my opinion.

Over the past several years people have dropped out of the labor force at an astounding, almost unbelievable rate, holding the unemployment rate artificially low. Some of this was due to major revisions last month on account of the 2010 census finally factored in. However, most of it is simply economic weakness.

Jobs Report at a Glance

Here is an overview of today's release.

US Payrolls +115,000 - Establishment Survey
US Unemployment Rate dropped .01 to 8.1% - Household Survey
Average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.5 hours
The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.8 hours.
Average hourly earnings for all employees in the private sector rose by 1 cent.

Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.

April 2012 Jobs Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) April 2012 Employment Report.

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 8.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, retail trade, and health care, but declined in transportation and warehousing.

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted



Nonfarm Employment - Payroll Survey - Annual Look - Seasonally Adjusted



Employment is about where it was just prior to the 2001 recession.

Nonfarm Employment - Payroll Survey - Monthly Look - Seasonally Adjusted

 

click on chart for sharper image

Between January 2008 and February 2010, the U.S. economy lost 8.8 million jobs.

Since a recent employment low in February 2010, nonfarm payrolls have expanded by 3.7 million jobs. Of the 8.8 million jobs lost between January 2008 and February 2010, 42 percent have been recovered.

Statistically, 125,000+- jobs a month is enough to keep the unemployment rate flat. For a discussion, please see Question on Jobs: How Many Does It Take to Keep Up With Demographics?

The average employment gain over the last 26 months has been 142,000, barely enough (statistically speaking) to make a dent in the unemployment rate.

Yet, the civilian unemployment rate has fell from 9.8% to 8.1%.

Current Report Jobs



Average Weekly Hours



Index of Aggregate Weekly Hours



Average Hourly Earnings vs. CPI



"Success" of QE2 and Operation Twist

Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.8 percent. In March, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) had an over-the-year increase of 2.6 percent; growth in prices has recently been outpacing growth in earnings.
 
Not only are wages rising slower than the CPI, there is also a concern as to how those wage gains are distributed.

BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box

The BLS Birth/Death Model is an estimation by the BLS as to how many jobs the economy created that were not picked up in the payroll survey.

The Birth-Death numbers are not seasonally adjusted while the reported headline number is. In the black box the BLS combines the two coming out with a total.

The Birth Death number influences the overall totals, but the math is not as simple as it appears. Moreover, the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance.

Do not add or subtract the Birth-Death numbers from the reported headline totals. It does not work that way.

Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing. Practice is clearly another as noted by numerous recent revisions.

Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2011



Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2012



Birth-Death Note

Once again: Do NOT subtract the Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.

Household Survey Data



click on chart for sharper image

In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,638,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 945,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,693,000.

That is an amazing "achievement" to say the least, and as noted above most of this is due to economic weakness not census changes.

Decline in Labor Force Factors

Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs
People retire because they cannot find jobs
People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job
People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job

Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.

Part Time Status



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There are 7,853,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work.

Table A-15

 

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Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.

The official unemployment rate is 8.1%. However, if you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 14.5%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Grossly Distorted Statistics

Given the complete distortions of reality with respect to not counting people who allegedly dropped out of the work force, it is easy to misrepresent the headline numbers.

Digging under the surface, the drop in the unemployment rate over the past two years is nothing but a statistical mirage. Things are much worse than the reported numbers indicate.

Note the drop in U-6 unemployment this month as the Civilian Labor Force fell by 342,000. This is beyond statistical noise, to the point of pure statistical bullsheet.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for Sitka Pacific Capital Management.

[Soul Crusher]

http://freebeacon.com/obamas-failed-recovery


Wow. 

[Soul Crusher]

Contentions
A Very Ugly Jobs Report
Peter Wehner
05.04.2012 - 3:40 PM


I wanted to add to John’s fine summary of today’s jobs report.

It really is a very ugly set of data.

It’s not simply that unemployment has been above 8 percent for a record 39 months, which is bad enough. While news stories report that 115,000 new jobs were added in April, the true picture is much worse. More than 340,000 Americans dropped out of the labor force last month. The total employment level for April fell 169,000. Ezra Klein of the Washington Post, who is hardly a conservative and has been quite sympathetic to President Obama, admits that unemployment “went down for the wrong reason: people dropping out of the labor force.”


He’s quite right. The labor force participation rate (64.3 percent) reached its lowest level in more than 30 years, while the employment-population ratio (58.4 percent) is lower still.

According to Jim Pethokoukis of the American Enterprise Institute, if labor force participation had stayed the same in April as it was in March, the unemployment rate would have risen by three-tenths of a percent (to 8.4 percent). And if the labor force participation rate today was what it was when Obama took office, the unemployment rate would be roughly 11 percent. The real unemployment rate, including those who are working part-time due to economic reasons, now clocks in at nearly 15 percent (14.5).

“In the weakest recovery since the Great Depression, more than four-fifths of the reduction in unemployment has been accomplished by a dropping adult labor force participation rate — essentially persuading adults they don’t need a job, or the job they could find is not worth having,” according to University of Maryland economist Peter Morici.

Any way you slice it, last month’s jobs report is dispiriting. The unemployment rate, which is already at historically high levels, is being kept artificially low because of growing despair and hopelessness. The will and energy of many Americans is being ground to dust.

We know what Obama sounded like in theory (hope, change, unity, prosperity). Now we know what Obamaism looks like in practice. It isn’t a pretty sight. And I’m afraid the president is affirming the observation of Camus, which is that destruction is an easier, speedier process than reconstruction. But at least let the reconstruction begin.

The prerequisite for that to occur, it seems, is for Obama to be a one-term president.

Topics: economy, labor force, Obama, unemployment rate