Author Topic: Jobs report - 500k+ people dropped from labor force - 200k added BD Index  (Read 5116 times)


Soul Crusher

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US Added 115,000 Jobs In April, Huge Miss Of Expectations; Unemployment Rate 8.1%

www.zerohedge.com



 
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/04/2012 08:31 -0400
•   Non Farm Payrolls
•   Unemployment

Expectations were for an increase in non farm payrolls of 160,000, and a 8.2% unemployment rate. We got +115,000, and 130,000 privates. Unemployment rate at 8.1%, lowest since January 2009. Schrodinger is alive and well.

From the release:

Both the number of unemployed persons (12.5 million) and the unemployment rate (8.1 percent) changed little in April. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.5 percent), adult women (7.4 percent), teenagers (24.9 percent), whites (7.4 percent), and Hispanics (10.3 percent) showed little or no change in April, while the rate for blacks (13.0 percent) declined over the month. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.2 percent in April (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed at 5.1 million in April. These individuals made up 41.3 percent of the unemployed. Over the year, the number of long-term unemployed has fallen by 759,000. (See table A-12.)

The civilian labor force participation rate declined in April to 63.6 percent, while the employment-population ratio, at 58.4 percent, changed little. (See table A-1.)
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Soul Crusher

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The civilian labor force participation rate declined in April to 63.6 percent, while the employment-population ratio, at 58.4 percent, changed little.

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Fury

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Wow. 115k? That's it? That's a massive miss, hahaha. All the econs and "experts" were predicting somewhere around 175k (which would still be terriblet).

FOUR MORE YEARS!
FOUR MORE YEARS!
FOUR MORE YEARS!

What a fucking disaster.




People Not In Labor Force Soar By 522,000, Labor Force Participation Rate Lowest Since 1981

It is just getting sad now. In April the number of people not in the labor force rose by a whopping 522,000 from 87,897,000 to
88,419,000.  This is the highest on record. The flip side, and the reason why the unemployment dropped to 8.1% is that the labor force participation rate just dipped to a new 30 year low of 64.3%.

Labor force participation Rate:







Cue all the MSM "unexpected drop" articles.

Fury

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Re: Jobs report - 500k+ less people dropped from labor force.
« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2012, 05:56:16 AM »
Forward!

Soul Crusher

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Re: Jobs report - 500k+ less people dropped from labor force.
« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2012, 05:57:13 AM »
Forward!

No wonder obama is running around like he is patton w the obl thing. 

This report is a disaster since they also added 260k jobs w the birth death adjustment. 

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Re: Jobs report - 500k+ less people dropped from labor force.
« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2012, 05:59:00 AM »
No wonder obama is running around like he is patton w the obl thing. 

This report is a disaster since they also added 260k jobs w the birth death adjustment. 

Keep in mind that this will be adjusted down to somewhere around 85-95k, too.

Obama is the greatest president ever!

Soul Crusher

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Re: Jobs report - 500k+ less people dropped from labor force.
« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2012, 06:03:08 AM »
Keep in mind that this will be adjusted down to somewhere around 85-95k, too.

Obama is the greatest president ever!

And not one of these obama drones will even remotely post in this thread. 

WHERE IS THE GROWTH?  WHERE ARE THE JOBS?  WHERE IS THE INVESTMENT? 


dario73

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Re: Jobs report - 500k+ less people dropped from labor force.
« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2012, 06:09:20 AM »
The left will only focus on that mythical 8.1% UE, yet they will not be able to explain why the UE rate is lower when every other indicator is the same or worse.


dario73

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Re: Jobs report - 500k+ less people dropped from labor force.
« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2012, 06:12:02 AM »
And not one of these obama drones will even remotely post in this thread. 

WHERE IS THE GROWTH?  WHERE ARE THE JOBS?  WHERE IS THE INVESTMENT? 



What? You don't think that $1 billion to save a few banks and create testicle washing jobs is not a sound investment?

Soul Crusher

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Re: Jobs report - 500k+ less people dropped from labor force.
« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2012, 06:12:51 AM »
The Addbacks: +22K From Seasonal; +206K From Birth Death

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/04/2012 08:58 -0400

www.zerohedge.com



 

The seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll number rose by 115K in April. That's great: it was a miss but such is life. Here is what the unadjusted data that led to this number says. The seasonal addback in April was +22K, a rapid break from the last 3 years when April saw a negative seasonal adjustment following the traditional huge positive adjustments in the January-March period, which in turn means that the record warm winter give back has not even started! As a result, the seasonal addbacks in 2012 are now a massive 4,499,000 jobs: jobs that have not been added but are expected to materialize based on historical seasonal patterns. And just as importantly, in April the Birth-Death addition was a whopping 206K, far greater than the comparable addition in 2010 and 2011, and much bigger than expected, which brings the year total now to a +20K cumulative total. It means, that by rough estimation, the reality is that in April the unadjusted, unbirth/deathed number was a decline of -111,000, and likely far worse once the true weather adjustments start taking place. This number is corroborated by the Household Survey which dropped by 169,000. So much for the recovery.

Below are the seasonal addbacks to the adjusted number (vs the non-seasonally adjusted monthly number).

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Unemployment Rate Falls To 8.1 Percent On People Giving Up Looking For Work
By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER 05/04/12 09:08 AM ET






WASHINGTON — U.S. employers pulled back on hiring in April for the second straight month, evidence of an economy still growing only sluggishly. The unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent, but only because more people gave up looking for work.

The Labor Department said Friday that the economy added just 115,000 jobs in April. That's below March's upwardly revised 154,000 jobs and far fewer than the pace earlier this year.

The unemployment rate has fallen a full percentage point since August to a three-year low. But last month's decline was not due to job growth. The government only counts people as unemployed if they are actively looking for work.

In April, the percentage of adults working or looking for work fell to the lowest level in more than 30 years. Many have become discouraged about their prospects. More than 5 million Americans have been unemployed for six months or longer, an astonishingly high number almost three years into a recovery.

Stock futures dipped after the report was released. Dow Jones industrial average futures, which were flat in the minutes before the report came out, were down 35 points shortly after.

Employers added an average of 252,000 jobs per month from December through February, a burst of hiring that raised hopes the economy would accelerate. But job gains have averaged only 135,000 in the two months since then. That's below last year's pace of 164,000 per month.

The slowdown could heighten fears that high gas prices and sluggish income growth are weighing on the broader economy.

Weak job gains pose a threat to President Barack Obama's reelection. He is likely to face voters this fall with the highest unemployment rate of any president since World War II.

Some economists attribute the weak gains partly to mild winter, which led some companies to accelerate hiring in January and February. That may have weakened hiring in March and April.




But others are concerned that this reflects a genuine slowdown.

"One month can be weather related, two months of weaker than expected job growth is dangerously close to a trend," Dan Greenhaus, an analyst at BTIG, an institutional brokerage firm.

Average hourly wages rose a penny in April, to $23.38. They have increased 1.8 percent over the past year, trailing the rate of inflation.

The economy must create at least 125,000 jobs a month just to keep pace with population growth. It generally takes twice that number on a consistent basis to rapidly lower the unemployment rate.

Manufacturers, retailers, and hotels and restaurants all added workers. So did professional services such as engineering and information technology. Shipping and warehousing firms, construction companies, and governments cut jobs.

Economists surveyed by the Associated Press said hiring should be sufficient to push the unemployment rate below 8 percent by Election Day. The 32 economists surveyed by the AP see steady job gains averaging 177,000 a month for the rest of this year. That should be enough to lower the unemployment rate to 7.9 percent by November.

There have been some signs that hiring will improve.

The number of people seeking unemployment benefits fell last week by the most in a year, the government said Thursday. That figure was released after the government compiled its April report. But it could bode well for hiring in May.

And earlier this week, the Institute for Supply Management, a private trade group, said factory activity grew at the fastest pace in 10 months and a gauge of manufacturing employment showed that hiring jumped.

Still, service companies expanded in April at the slowest pace in four months, according to a separate ISM survey. And the group said hiring at those companies, which employ roughly 90 percent of the work force, slowed.

The economy expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the January-March quarter, down from 3 percent growth in the fourth quarter. Economists polled by the AP forecast the economy will grow 2.5 percent this year. In a healthy economy, that would be considered average. But faster growth is needed to spur greater job creation.

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St. Louis Fed's "Not In Labor Force" Data Is Now Officially Off The Chart
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/04/2012 09:22 -0400


St Louis Fed


The comedy continues: the April "Not in labor force" seasonally adjusted print: 88,419,000. And yet, the maximum reading permitted by St Louis Fed Not in Labor Force (LNS15000000) graph: 88,000,000. The data has now officially dropped off the chart. No further commentary necessary.





4 MORE YEARS
4 MORE YEARS
4 MORE YEARS

Soul Crusher

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U.S. April hiring slows, jobless rate falls to 8.1 percent
By Jason Lange


WASHINGTON | Fri May 4, 2012 10:03am EDT

 
(Reuters) - Employers cut back on hiring in April and the jobless rate fell as people gave up the hunt for work, a somber note on the economy that could hurt President Barack Obama's re-election chances.
 
Employers added just 115,000 workers to their payrolls last month, the Labor Department said on Friday.

It was the third straight month in which hiring slowed, keeping fears alive that the U.S. economy is losing momentum. It also dampens hopes that a stretch of strong winter hiring signaled a turning point for the recovery.

"It shows sluggish growth," said John Doyle, currency strategist at Tempus Consulting in Washington.

The unemployment rate ticked a tenth of a point lower to 8.1 percent, a three-year low, as people left the workforce. The jobless rate is derived from a separate survey of households, which showed a drop in the number of jobs in April.

Still, the report was not all negative. The government revised upward its initial estimates for payroll growth in February and March by a combined 53,000. That left the six-month average of job growth at 197,000, nearly exactly where it would have been had April job growth come in as expected at 170,000.

Futures for U.S. stocks were flat following the release of the payrolls data. Yields on U.S. government bonds edged lower.

The report could rattle nerves at the White House. Weak U.S. growth and high unemployment create a formidable headwind for Obama, who entered office during the darkest days of the 2007-09 recession.

His Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, repeatedly has accused Obama of doing too little to foster job growth.

The unemployment rate, which soared to as high as 10 percent during Obama's first year in the office, held near 9 percent for most of last year before falling sharply over the winter.

Still, it remains about 2 percentage points higher than its average over the last 50 years, and the U.S. Federal Reserve thinks the labor market probably will not post a full recovery for at least another several years.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month the central bank is providing enough support for the economy but kept open the possibility of easing monetary policy should the economy weaken.

"I don't think Fed policy is going to change at this point," said Sean Incremona, an economist at 4cast. "They obviously are going to be on guard now that employment growth is not picking up and is more likely to slow."

WEATHER REPORTS

So far this year, the labor market has given mixed signals.

During the winter, fast growth in payrolls led many analysts to think the economy was turning a corner. Then jobs growth braked in March, fueling fears the recovery was losing momentum.

Most economists think mild weather muddied the waters, boosting hiring in the winter but making spring look weaker because companies had pulled hiring forward.

"It's not that there's something wrong with the economy. Employment just got ahead of itself," said Robert Mellman, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.

The report showed the private sector accounted for all the job gains in April, adding 130,000 new positions. Manufacturing registering another strong month, adding 16,000 jobs.

Wall Street analysts see economic growth holding at a lackluster 2.2 percent annual rate in the second quarter, matching its pace in the first three months of the year.

The length of the average work week held steady at 34.5 hours in April.

(The story was corrected to say in third paragraph that it was the third straight month hiring slowed, not the second)

(Additional reporting by Luciana Lopez and Cris Reese in New York; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

240 is Back

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numbers suck.

but are they reliable?

when we had the most growth since 2006 last month, everyone said the #s were fixed.

they suck this month, and now they're accurate?

i know the economy sucks, but next month when the numbers are better, getbiggers will be back to saying they don't mean anything.

Soul Crusher

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numbers suck.

but are they reliable?

when we had the most growth since 2006 last month, everyone said the #s were fixed.

they suck this month, and now they're accurate?

i know the economy sucks, but next month when the numbers are better, getbiggers will be back to saying they don't mean anything.


 ::)  ::) 

Could not contain yourself could you?   

240 is Back

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 ::)  ::) 

Could not contain yourself could you?   

i'm guessing you're searching for my 2010 Christie prediction now, your dick hard with anticipation haha

Fury

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numbers suck.

but are they reliable?

when we had the most growth since 2006 last month, everyone said the #s were fixed.

they suck this month, and now they're accurate?

i know the economy sucks, but next month when the numbers are better, getbiggers will be back to saying they don't mean anything.

Of course they're not reliable, you stupid fuck. The real numbers are much worse than what they're peddling.

You are an incredibly stupid individual.

Soul Crusher

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Of course they're not reliable, you stupid fuck. The real numbers are much worse than what they're peddling.

You are an incredibly stupid individual.


240 has sold his soul for obama, just like the other lemmings.   Very sad to see people supposedly with free will enslave themselves to a communist con man seeking only misery for them. 


Soul Crusher

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Bump for Team Kenya 

240 is Back

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nobody can tell me why romney isn't saying a thing here about the fraudulent numbers.

you all know me - i see a CT in everything - I think the numebrs are obviously not 8.1%, that's laughable, absolutely laughable.

But why won't Romney said it?

Soul Crusher

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nobody can tell me why romney isn't saying a thing here about the fraudulent numbers.

you all know me - i see a CT in everything - I think the numebrs are obviously not 8.1%, that's laughable, absolutely laughable.

But why won't Romney said it?

STFU - Romney already said this was a disaster, which it is. 

240 - SERIOUS QUESTION - DON'T YOU FEEL THE LEAST BIT EMBARRASSED AND CONNED BY OBAMA CONSIDERING WHAT YOU HAVE SHILLED FOR OVER THESE PAST 4 YEARS?   

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Unemployment Rate Dips 0.1%, But Workforce Participation Rate Falls 0.2%
 CNSNews.com ^ | May 4, 2012 | Gregory Gwyn-Williams Jr.

Posted on Friday, May 04, 2012 12:18:41 PM by CNSNews.com

The April jobs report showed employers added fewer workers than expected with nonfarm payrolls rising by only 115,000. Economists had expected 168,000 jobs and the tepid April increase falls far short of the 250,000 jobs needed each month to maintain population increases.

Yes, the unemployment rate ticked down by 0.1% to 8.1%, - but, that number may be a little misleading. The participation rate, defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as the labor force as a percent of population, declined in April by 0.2 to 63.6% to the lowest level since 1981 - in other words, there were less Americans “participating” in the job market in April than in March.

In fact, the participation rate has been declining over the last year. In April of 2011 the participation rate stood at 64.2%. Today’s BLS report shows that the percent of Americans in the labor force has declined by 0.6% over the last year; the April rate reported at 63.6%.

So, with fewer Americans “participating” in the labor force, how does the unemployment rate keep ticking lower? Well, BLS counts only those Americans looking for work as unemployed. The number of Americans who dropped out of the labor force from March to April was 522,000. These Americans are no longer considered unemployed and therefore are not part of the equation.

Let’s think about this simply: If you remove Americans from the workforce, even though they are still technically unemployed (and no longer earning money to spend in our economy), the unemployment rate decreases.

To use President Obama’s words: “It’s simple math.”

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OBAMA - FFFFFFAAAAIIIIIIILLLLLLL L

240 is Back

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STFU - Romney already said this was a disaster, which it is. 

240 - SERIOUS QUESTION - DON'T YOU FEEL THE LEAST BIT EMBARRASSED AND CONNED BY OBAMA CONSIDERING WHAT YOU HAVE SHILLED FOR OVER THESE PAST 4 YEARS?   

First off, ROmney should be challenging the legitimacy of this 8.1% UE.   Every day of the week.  Not "he called it a disaster already".  No, call obama for the bullshit numbers.  Either he's a wimp, or you're wrong about it.  Why would he keep this off the table?

And 2) I was a CT 5 years ago when you were buying everything the TV sold.  You dont have to tell me the got fudges numbers - that's laughable to the nth degree that you're just learning this.  politics/news is all lies, just WWE for nerds like us.  It's all faked, staged, and lies.  I watch and debate it because I enjoy it - but I never buy shit about it.

I feel sorry for ppl like you that still buy 1/2 of it lol.  Repubs are lying too, dog.