Polls on Gay Marriage Not Yet Reflected in Votes

[Dos Equis]

Will be interesting to see what happens in November. 
Polls on Gay Marriage Not Yet Reflected in Votes
Sunday, 27 May 2012

Poll after poll shows public support for same-sex marriage steadily increasing, to the point where it's now a majority viewpoint. Yet in all 32 states where gay marriage has been on the ballot, voters have rejected it.

It's possible the streak could end in November, when Maine, Maryland, Minnesota and Washington state are likely to have closely contested gay marriage measures on their ballots.

For now, however, there remains a gap between the national polling results and the way states have voted. It's a paradox with multiple explanations, from political geography to the likelihood that some conflicted voters tell pollsters one thing and then vote differently.

"It's not that people are lying. It's an intensely emotional issue," said Amy Simon, a pollster based in Oakland, Calif. "People can report to you how they feel at the moment they're answering the polls, but they can change their mind."

California experienced that phenomenon in November 2008, when voters, by a 52-48 margin, approved a ban on same-sex marriage in the state constitution.

California is an unusual case. It's one of a few reliably Democratic states that have had a statewide vote rebuffing same-sex marriage. The vast majority of the referendums have been in more conservative states, which have a greater predilection for using ballot measures to set social policy. The 32 states that have rejected gay marriage at the polls make up just over 60 percent of the U.S. population.

In all, there are now six states with legal same-sex marriage and nine more granting gay and lesbian couples broad marriage-style rights via civil unions or domestic partnerships. Together, those 15 states account for about 35 percent of the U.S. population.

Over the past year, there's been a stream of major national polls indicating that a majority of people support same-sex marriage. According to a Washington Post-ABC News poll released Wednesday, 53 percent of those questioned say gay marriage should be legal, a new high for the poll, while 39 percent, a new low, say it should be illegal.

Political consultant Frank Schubert, a leading strategist for campaigns against same-sex marriage, said such polls are misleading and he asserted that same-sex marriage would be rejected if a national referendum were held now.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/GayMarriageParadox/2012/05/27/id/440376

[MCWAY]

Maine and Washington might be somewhat close. Maryland and Minnesota, I suspect, will pass fairly easily.

We've seen gay "marriage" laws reversed twice, in Maine and in California. So, it's no stretch that such will happen in Washington state and Maryland, which have passed the laws but such don't take effect until next year.

According to Baptist Press, marriage amendments tend to gain 5-7 points more than what the polls (likely oversampling liberals) suggest.

[Vince G, CSN MFT]

Will be interesting to see what happens in November. 
Polls on Gay Marriage Not Yet Reflected in Votes
Sunday, 27 May 2012

Poll after poll shows public support for same-sex marriage steadily increasing, to the point where it's now a majority viewpoint. Yet in all 32 states where gay marriage has been on the ballot, voters have rejected it.

It's possible the streak could end in November, when Maine, Maryland, Minnesota and Washington state are likely to have closely contested gay marriage measures on their ballots.

For now, however, there remains a gap between the national polling results and the way states have voted. It's a paradox with multiple explanations, from political geography to the likelihood that some conflicted voters tell pollsters one thing and then vote differently.

"It's not that people are lying. It's an intensely emotional issue," said Amy Simon, a pollster based in Oakland, Calif. "People can report to you how they feel at the moment they're answering the polls, but they can change their mind."

California experienced that phenomenon in November 2008, when voters, by a 52-48 margin, approved a ban on same-sex marriage in the state constitution.

California is an unusual case. It's one of a few reliably Democratic states that have had a statewide vote rebuffing same-sex marriage. The vast majority of the referendums have been in more conservative states, which have a greater predilection for using ballot measures to set social policy. The 32 states that have rejected gay marriage at the polls make up just over 60 percent of the U.S. population.

In all, there are now six states with legal same-sex marriage and nine more granting gay and lesbian couples broad marriage-style rights via civil unions or domestic partnerships. Together, those 15 states account for about 35 percent of the U.S. population.

Over the past year, there's been a stream of major national polls indicating that a majority of people support same-sex marriage. According to a Washington Post-ABC News poll released Wednesday, 53 percent of those questioned say gay marriage should be legal, a new high for the poll, while 39 percent, a new low, say it should be illegal.

Political consultant Frank Schubert, a leading strategist for campaigns against same-sex marriage, said such polls are misleading and he asserted that same-sex marriage would be rejected if a national referendum were held now.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/GayMarriageParadox/2012/05/27/id/440376

Makes no difference

[OzmO]

It's inevitable, maybe not now, but soon.  Same with marajuanna.

[tonymctones]

It's inevitable, maybe not now, but soon.  Same with marajuanna.

same with laws restricting abortion?

thats the trend right?

[Irongrip400]

This country is going down the shitter, and these laxed rules and no consequence for fucking sick behavior are gonna sink us. Not saying that I am against gay marriage , it's just a part of a broader spectrum of shit behavior.

[Dos Equis]

Makes no difference

Yeah who cares what the vast majority of the country wants. 

[Dos Equis]

It's inevitable, maybe not now, but soon.  Same with marajuanna.

I agree it's inevitable, but it will probably happen through the court system.  I think it's going to be difficult for the courts to keep saying this isn't an equal protection issue when we have given GLBT protection in our employment, housing, and hate crimes statutes.  Repeal of DADT too.  It's not what the people want (homosexual marriage), but it's coming. 

In the meantime, we have a mess on our hands, with DOMA, the president working to repeal it, Congress trying to enforce it, and the states embedding traditional marriage in their state constitutions. 

Also, I don't think a lot of people who are pushing this have thought through the implications.  "GLBT" includes bisexuals, who could want to enter triad marriages.  That's next. 

[garebear]

I agree it's inevitable, but it will probably happen through the court system.  I think it's going to be difficult for the courts to keep saying this isn't an equal protection issue when we have given GLBT protection in our employment, housing, and hate crimes statutes.  Repeal of DADT too.  It's not what the people want (homosexual marriage), but it's coming. 

In the meantime, we have a mess on our hands, with DOMA, the president working to repeal it, Congress trying to enforce it, and the states embedding traditional marriage in their state constitutions. 

Also, I don't think a lot of people who are pushing this have thought through the implications.  "GLBT" includes bisexuals, who could want to enter triad marriages.  That's next. 

A lot of people who didn't want women to vote would say things like, "What's next, are we going to allow animals to vote?"

I don't think that's happened yet.

[Shockwave]

A lot of people who didn't want women to vote would say things like, "What's next, are we going to allow animals to vote?"

I don't think that's happened yet.

Depends on your definition of animals bromosexual.

[Dos Equis]

A lot of people who didn't want women to vote would say things like, "What's next, are we going to allow animals to vote?"

I don't think that's happened yet.

I don't recall reading about that in our history.  And even if they did, the analogy isn't very good because animals were/are not given the same status as humans. 

But bisexuals are being treated the same as gays and lesbians, and giving bisexuals the right to marry two people doesn't require some absurd animal comparison. 

[garebear]

I don't recall reading about that in our history.  And even if they did, the analogy isn't very good because animals were/are not given the same status as humans. 

But bisexuals are being treated the same as gays and lesbians, and giving bisexuals the right to marry two people doesn't require some absurd animal comparison. 

I've actually always been a bit confused as to why Mormons aren't allowed to marry multiple wives.

Shouldn't it be considered part of their religious freedoms?

Actually, this is what gay people should do, claim some kind of religion for themselves. Then they will have to have equal rights.

[Dos Equis]

I've actually always been a bit confused as to why Mormons aren't allowed to marry multiple wives.

Shouldn't it be considered part of their religious freedoms?

Actually, this is what gay people should do, claim some kind of religion for themselves. Then they will have to have equal rights.

There is no absolute right to religious freedom.  Society said polygamy is illegal.  The courts agreed. 

That's probably going to change after we've finished redefining marriage and gender. 

[Vince G, CSN MFT]

Yeah who cares what the vast majority of the country wants.  

The majority of the country used to want slavery because it used to be cheap and easy to buy a bunch of  n i g g e r s to work out in the fields, paint their houses, cook your food, light your pipe, and keep their place clean and immaculate.




But its not right....same with this issue.  No group of people have a right to personally interfere in other people's lives or tell them that they can't visit their loved one in the hospital because they don't approve of it.....that's what I have to put up with


Wants should never outweigh simply doing the right thing....that's why this country is in the shitter for.

[Dos Equis]

The majority of the country used to want slavery because it used to be cheap and easy to buy a bunch of  n i g g e r s to work out in the fields, paint their houses, cook your food, light your pipe, and keep their place clean and immaculate.




But its not right....same with this issue.  No group of people have a right to personally interfere in other people's lives or tell them that they can't visit their loved one in the hospital because they don't approve of it.....that's what I have to put up with


Wants should never outweigh simply doing the right thing....that's why this country is in the shitter for.

That's not the way it works.  In a democratic society, we decide what we want and don't want.  For example, society has decided to give GLBT protection in various capacities in states across the country.  At the same time, society has decided in 32 states that they want to preserve traditional marriage.  That's how democracy works.   

[tu_holmes]

That's not the way it works.  In a democratic society, we decide what we want and don't want.  For example, society has decided to give GLBT protection in various capacities in states across the country.  At the same time, society has decided in 32 states that they want to preserve traditional marriage.  That's how democracy works.   

It is how it works... but then one day, and by the way... the US is not a "democracy". It's a constitutional republic.... None the less... As I was saying... One day... people start waking up, and movements happen, and shit changes.

One day, in 50 years, this gay marriage shit will be another black spot on our society where someone had enough good sense to stand up and stop trying to keep another person under their heels.

[garebear]

That's not the way it works.  In a democratic society, we decide what we want and don't want.  For example, society has decided to give GLBT protection in various capacities in states across the country.  At the same time, society has decided in 32 states that they want to preserve traditional marriage.  That's how democracy works.   

You hate for your god.

It's disgusting.

[Soul Crusher]

You hate for your god.

It's disgusting.

When are you and your BF getting married? 

[garebear]

When are you and your BF getting married? 

After you and your girlfriend have sex.

[Soul Crusher]

After you and your girlfriend have sex.

Hey - you keep trolling everyone and telling everyone here that they hate freedom, blah blah blah, but didnt you CHOOSE to go live in a communist state? 

[Mr. Magoo]

That's not the way it works.  In a democratic society, we decide what we want and don't want.  For example, society has decided to give GLBT protection in various capacities in states across the country.  At the same time, society has decided in 32 states that they want to preserve traditional marriage.  That's how democracy works.   

wrong

you're confusing a majoritarian democracy (which we are not) with a constitutional democracy (which we are).

Your "example" is just you begging the question.

[Soul Crusher]

wrong

you're confusing a majoritarian democracy (which we are not) with a constitutional democracy (which we are).

Your "example" is just you begging the question.

hhhmmmm - I thought we were a Federal Republic governed by a Constitution and BOR. 

[tu_holmes]

hhhmmmm - I thought we were a Federal Republic governed by a Constitution and BOR. 

We are a Constitutional Republic.

Nuances of course, but that's what we are.

[Dos Equis]

You hate for your god.

It's disgusting.

 

Way to elevate the debate, stud.

[Dos Equis]

wrong

you're confusing a majoritarian democracy (which we are not) with a constitutional democracy (which we are).

Your "example" is just you begging the question.

Call it whatever you want, but at the end of the day, majority or super majority rules, whether it's locally, state, national level, referendum, or constitutions.  If you don't like something, pass a law.  If you don't like the law, work to repeal it.  The voters ultimately decide, either individually or through elected representatives.