Forget blacks, Latinos, gays, etc.: Without white-working class, Obama is TOAST!

[MCWAY]

All Romney has to do is appeal to white voters with at least a high-school diploma, particularly white males, and it's ALL OVER for Mr. Hope-and-Change.

Obama's White Support Is Too Low to Win


President Obama does not currently have enough white support to win re-election even if he retains his minority base from 2008. At the same time, electoral data indicates Mitt Romney has not yet attracted enough of these white voters to capitalize on Obama's weakness.

Pundits often note that Romney cannot win with his current level of Hispanic support. That's likely true. But so is the converse: Obama cannot win with his level of white support unless white swing voters withhold their votes from Romney as well.

Today, fewer whites back Obama than any Democratic candidate since Walter Mondale. Romney does not need to emulate Ronald Reagan to win. Should he match Reagan’s share of the white vote in 1984 -- presuming all else remains constant since 2008 -- Romney would rout Obama.

Of course, America has changed since Reagan. Non-Hispanic whites were 89 percent of the electorate when Reagan first won the White House in 1980. They were 85 percent in 1988. By 2008, whites were 74 percent. That shift has upended the electoral landscape. But only so much.

Take Michael Dukakis’ fate as an example. In 1988, George H.W. Bush’s margin of victory exceeded Obama’s in 2008. But if Obama’s level of white support in 2012 equals Dukakis’, and all else remains the same from 2008, Obama would likely narrowly win. He would lack a mandate and risk immediate lame-duck status. But he would survive with white support that once sundered Democrats.

Unless . . .

What if Obama doesn't even match Dukakis with whites? That’s the dynamic of 2012. This electorate has a white floor. And it has broken for this president. Democrats cannot depend on demographics to save them.

Should Romney win the whites Obama lost, Romney will only need to perform as well as John McCain with minorities to win. This is true even under Democrats’ most optimistic, and unlikely, demographic scenario: that the white share of the electorate decreases another two percentage points from 2008, blacks turn out at the same historic levels they did then, and the Hispanic share of the vote rises from 9 to 11 percent of the electorate while Obama retains the same level of support from other minority groups.

The white margin to watch: 61-39. That’s the rough break-even point. Obama likely needs more than 39 percent of whites to assure re-election. Romney likely needs at least 61 percent of whites to assure Obama’s defeat (or 60.5 in some scenerios). These are estimates based on an electorate that matches the diversity of 2008 or is slightly less white. It presumes the Electoral College outcome does not diverge from the winner of the popular vote (loose talk aside, it’s only happened four times in U.S. history).

Thus, Obama can do a little worse than Dukakis, and Romney must perform a little better than Bush circa 1988. Whites favored Reagan in 1984 by a 64-35 margin. They favored Bush in 1988 by a 59-40 margin. Four years ago, whites favored McCain by a 55-43 margin.

Only 37 or 38 percent of whites back Obama today, according to the Gallup Poll’s authoritative weekly averages since early April (which have a larger sample size than most polls combined). The rub for Romney? In those same matchups, Romney only wins 54 percent of whites. Other surveys show the same. CNN’s latest pegged the white margin at 53-39. FOX News’ latest, 51-35. Ipsos-Reuters, 53-38. The Pew Research Center's polls have, however, shown Obama stronger this year. Its recent survey placed the margin at 54-41.

Writ large, Obama appears below his floor with whites. But so does Romney. Obama has too few whites saying yea to a second term. And Romney has converted too few nays to his side. Notably, the same share of whites say they will vote for Obama as approve of his job performance.

These whites constitute, by far, the largest share of the swing vote. The president depends on Hispanics to partly compensate for his weakness with whites. That’s possible in some states like Florida, Colorado and Nevada. But Latinos are less than a 10th of the electorate in every other swing state.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/06/22/obamas_white_support_is_too_low_to_win_2012_romney_white_male_gap_white_women_kuhn_114579.html

[Soul Crusher]

Obama has stepped on the working class of this country, including all races.   Its not only whites. 

Obama has collapsed the nation for anyone who wants to go to work and pay their bills. 

Its not race - its his communism. 

[MCWAY]

Obama has stepped on the working class of this country, including all races.   Its not only whites. 

Obama has collapsed the nation for anyone who wants to go to work and pay their bills. 

Its not race - its his communism. 

I agree. But, with the left, gloating about how more non-white babies have been born over the last year than white ones (implying that they will eventually outbreed Caucasians, thus having a permanent base of Democrat voters to hold power, indefinitely), this article and others douses liberals with a cold-dose of reality.

Of course, that's their lumping blacks, Latinos, Asians, etc., together. All of them would have to show up in, at least, the same levels as they did in 2008. That ain't happening.

The black voter is depressed (economy, gay 'marriage' flip-flop); Latinos aren't a lock for him, either.

[George Whorewell]

Racist thread reported.

[Straw Man]

I agree. But, with the left, gloating about how more non-white babies have been born over the last year than white ones (implying that they will eventually outbreed Caucasians, thus having a permanent base of Democrat voters to hold power, indefinitely), this article and others douses liberals with a cold-dose of reality.

Of course, that's their lumping blacks, Latinos, Asians, etc., together. All of them would have to show up in, at least, the same levels as they did in 2008. That ain't happening.

The black voter is depressed (economy, gay 'marriage' flip-flop); Latinos aren't a lock for him, either.

LOL - paranoid much

who told you this nonsense?

[blacken700]

Obama Has Big Lead Among Latinos in Swing States
A new Latino Decisions poll shows President Obama way ahead of Mitt Romney among Latino voters in the key swing states of Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Virginia.

"In Florida, the poll found Obama leading Romney by a margin of 53% to 37%, a slight increase from a 50% to 40% lead Obama held over Romney in a January 2012 Latino Decisions/Univision News poll in Florida. In the five states combined Obama lead Romney 63% to 27%, however in southwestern battlegrounds of Arizona, Colorado and Nevada Obama performed even better. In Arizona Obama received 74% to 18% for Romney, in Colorado he was favored by 70% to 22% and in Nevada 69% to 20%. In Virginia, Obama lead 59% to 28% over Romney among Latino registered voters."

Alex Burns notes Obama "won the Latino vote by 36 points nationally in 2008, which is the same margin he leads Romney overall across these five swing states."

[Soul Crusher]

And gallup and ras both have Romney up, against an incumbent potus who is polling in mid forties. 

Dont you get it?  The more racial obama gets the worse it is for him since it turns off the largest segment of voters - whites, who vote in larger numbers than blacks and hispanics. 

[blacken700]

the swing states are going to decide this election 

[MCWAY]

the swing states are going to decide this election 

And, thanks to Obama's policies, there are more swing states, most notably Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

[MCWAY]

And gallup and ras both have Romney up, against an incumbent potus who is polling in mid forties. 

Dont you get it?  The more racial obama gets the worse it is for him since it turns off the largest segment of voters - whites, who vote in larger numbers than blacks and hispanics. 

Keep in mind also that Bush won re-election with 11% of the black vote and 40% of the Latino vote. If Romney gets that, it's ball game!!

But, Bush got most of the WHITE-WORKING CLASS. Obama and his administration has basically abandoned them, particularly after the beating they took at the midterms.

Unions aren't backing Obama financially. Romney is raising more money. Those are NOT good signs for an incumbent president.

Add to all that, two major scandals and Obama is in BIG TROUBLE!!!

[blacken700]

http://www.examiner.com/article/obama-makes-gains-most-recent-electoral-college-map-projection

[MCWAY]

http://www.examiner.com/article/obama-makes-gains-most-recent-electoral-college-map-projection

RCP has Obama 221, Romney 170, with 147 in the "toss-up" category.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

[240 is Back]

RCP has Obama 221, Romney 170, with 147 in the "toss-up" category.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

a 50 point lead is nothing.

[JBGRAY]

Unfortunately, large swathes of whites will still vote the Democrat ticket.....in addition, there are no small number of whites collecting government benefits who will vote in the person they most believe will allow them to continue to collect government checks.

[Soul Crusher]

http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/07/from-bad-to-worse-with-bluecol.php



Sinking like a rock 

[whork]

I agree. But, with the left, gloating about how more non-white babies have been born over the last year than white ones (implying that they will eventually outbreed Caucasians, thus having a permanent base of Democrat voters to hold power, indefinitely), this article and others douses liberals with a cold-dose of reality.

Of course, that's their lumping blacks, Latinos, Asians, etc., together. All of them would have to show up in, at least, the same levels as they did in 2008. That ain't happening.

The black voter is depressed (economy, gay 'marriage' flip-flop); Latinos aren't a lock for him, either.

Haha do you watch FOX alot?

[MCWAY]

Haha do you watch FOX alot?

I do...SO WHAT???

As opposed to your clucking the musings from the red-headed stepchild of cable news (MSNBC).

[whork]

I do...SO WHAT???

As opposed to your clucking the musings from the red-headed stepchild of cable news (MSNBC).

Sorry i dont watch MSNBC

You need to watch un-biased sources.

The human intellect works in such a way that it reflects what you think is true thereby creating a twisted reality in your mind.

[MCWAY]

Bump!! For 333386 and TA.

[Soul Crusher]

Obama will do worse w every group in november