Author Topic: Anatomy of a crap poll showing Obama up by +2 (Read 2262 times)

Soul Crusher · « **on:** July 14, 2012, 11:07:51 AM »

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/07/13/156143/mcclatchy-marist-poll-july-2012.html

Most of the polling now showing obama with a lead of any sort are pure crap.

Here is a perfect example of shit the media runs with and gets spread around.

1. Registered voters v. likely Voters - check

2. Over Sample democrats - check - oversampled by 7!

3. Small sample - check

And despite this nonsense- it only shows obama up by 2.

Crap polls all around lately.

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #1 on:** July 14, 2012, 11:33:10 AM »

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11798

This one is even worse showing obama plus 6.

Why do these stupid fucks put out such nonsense?

blacken700 · « **Reply #2 on:** July 14, 2012, 11:34:55 AM »

only the polls with romney ahead are accurate

go outside and gets some fresh air

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #3 on:** July 14, 2012, 11:45:37 AM »

Quote from: blacken700 on July 14, 2012, 11:34:55 AM

only the polls with romney ahead are accurate go outside and gets some fresh air

No - good polls have a generally large sample size, use likely voters v registered or adults, and have weighting reflecting the likely makeup of the electorate. polls oversampling Demos by 6 -9 points are ridiculous.

MCWAY · « **Reply #4 on:** July 14, 2012, 03:07:28 PM »

Quote from: 333386 on July 14, 2012, 11:45:37 AM

No - good polls have a generally large sample size, use likely voters v registered or adults, and have weighting reflecting the likely makeup of the electorate. polls oversampling Demos by 6 -9 points are ridiculous.

We saw this last month in Wisconsin. Suddenly these polls had the race "too close to call". Then, they acted shocked, when Walker won going away.

Dos Equis · « **Reply #5 on:** July 14, 2012, 03:14:18 PM »

I heard Fred Thompson say yesterday that the approval rating of an incumbent in March is his ceiling in November. Obama was supposedly at 47% in March. If that statistic is true, he's in trouble.

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #6 on:** July 25, 2012, 03:24:23 AM »

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/12768_July_Poll.pdf

This is another example of a crap poll being touted by the media. Sampling demos plus 11. Then the media runs around like it's valid.

LMFAO.

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #7 on:** July 25, 2012, 03:28:21 AM »

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/07/24/NBC-uses-d-11-poll-to-find-obama-up-by-9

Vince G, CSN MFT · « **Reply #8 on:** July 25, 2012, 06:18:34 AM »

First off...Breitbart.....100% GOP partisan....never give a shit about what they have to say.

Second....these polls are ridiculous...I mean a "crap poll"...

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #9 on:** July 25, 2012, 06:21:34 AM »

Quote from: Vince G, CSN MFT on July 25, 2012, 06:18:34 AM

First off...Breitbart.....100% GOP partisan....never give a shit about what they have to say.

Second....these polls are ridiculous...I mean a "crap poll"...

LOL - Breitbart was reporting on the weighting of the poll - which i posted.

They over sampled demos at +11.

Vince G, CSN MFT · « **Reply #10 on:** July 25, 2012, 06:33:22 AM »

Quote from: 333386 on July 25, 2012, 06:21:34 AM

LOL - Breitbart was reporting on the weighting of the poll - which i posted.

They over sampled demos at +11.

But who care about a "crap poll"....its ridiculous.

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #11 on:** July 25, 2012, 11:38:45 AM »

NBC's Chuck Todd: Our Poll Was Skewed
Big Government ^ | July 25, 2012 | Mike Flynn

Last night, I noted how NBC News was swimming against historical trends in pushing a poll with a deeply partisan skew in its sample. The poll, produced in conjunction with The Wall Street Journal, had a D+11 sample, i.e. 46% of the sample identified as Democrat, 35% identified as Republican. In 2008, a very big year for Democrats, the electorate was D+7, 39% Democrat, 32% Republican. In fact, you have to go back nearly thirty years to find an election with such a partisan skew.

This morning, on MSNBC's Morning Joe, NBC political director Chuck Todd admitted their poll had a skewed sample (around 3:50 mark) and stated that, if this poll were weighted similarly to their last poll, the race would have been unchanged, instead of Obama extending his lead over Romney to 6 points. (Of course, this invites the question as to why they didn't use the same weighting in this sample.)

(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #12 on:** August 01, 2012, 04:32:08 AM »

AS THE MEDIA BREATHLESSLY RUN TO REPORT THAT OBAMA IS AHEAD, WE GET MORE CRAP POLLING.

________________________ ____________________

Obama leads Romney in three key swing states (Another BS CBS Poll)
CBS ^ | 8/1/2012 | Brian Montopoli

Posted on Wednesday, August 01, 2012 6:59:01 AM by tobyhill

President Obama leads Mitt Romney among likely voters in Ohio and Florida - and has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania - according to a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released this morning.

The poll, conducted from July 24-30, shows Mr. Obama leading his presumptive Republican challenger 53 percent to 42 percent in Pennsylvania. The 11-point lead results largely from independents, who favor the president by 22 points, and women, who favor the president by 24 points.

Mr. Obama holds a six-point lead in Ohio, 50 percent to 44 percent, a state where he holds a campaign event later today. His lead here is also due in large part to women, who back him by a 21-point margin. Romney leads by ten points among Ohio men, and seven points among Ohio whites.

In Florida, Mr. Obama also holds a six point lead, 51 percent to 45 percent. He holds a small lead among both men and women and a 19-point lead among Hispanics, while Romney leads by double-digits among whites and voters age 65 and above.

(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...

BUT WAIT . . . . . . .

ON PAGE 8 WE FIND THE TRUTH

From p.8 of the poll:

Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?

Florida R-27 D-36 I-32 Other-4 DK/NA-1 (D+9)

Ohio R-27 D-35 I-32 Other-4 DK/NA-1 (D+8)

Pennsylvania R-32 D-38 I-26 Other-3 DK/NA-1 (D+6)

MORE BOGUS CRAP FROM THE MSM DESPERATE TO KNEEPAD OBAMA

Option D · « **Reply #13 on:** August 01, 2012, 07:11:14 AM »

Quote from: 333386 on July 14, 2012, 11:33:10 AM

Why do these stupid fucks put out such nonsense?

I swear i laughed my ass off when i read this... like seriously.. this was funny

Dos Equis · « **Reply #14 on:** August 01, 2012, 09:04:52 AM »

Quote from: 333386 on August 01, 2012, 04:32:08 AM

From p.8 of the poll:

Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?

Florida R-27 D-36 I-32 Other-4 DK/NA-1 (D+9)

Ohio R-27 D-35 I-32 Other-4 DK/NA-1 (D+8)

Pennsylvania R-32 D-38 I-26 Other-3 DK/NA-1 (D+6)

Not very reliable.

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #15 on:** August 01, 2012, 10:31:28 AM »

Bump

Quote from: 333386 on August 01, 2012, 04:32:08 AM

AS THE MEDIA BREATHLESSLY RUN TO REPORT THAT OBAMA IS AHEAD, WE GET MORE CRAP POLLING.

________________________ ____________________

Obama leads Romney in three key swing states (Another BS CBS Poll)
CBS ^ | 8/1/2012 | Brian Montopoli

Posted on Wednesday, August 01, 2012 6:59:01 AM by tobyhill

President Obama leads Mitt Romney among likely voters in Ohio and Florida - and has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania - according to a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released this morning.

The poll, conducted from July 24-30, shows Mr. Obama leading his presumptive Republican challenger 53 percent to 42 percent in Pennsylvania. The 11-point lead results largely from independents, who favor the president by 22 points, and women, who favor the president by 24 points.

Mr. Obama holds a six-point lead in Ohio, 50 percent to 44 percent, a state where he holds a campaign event later today. His lead here is also due in large part to women, who back him by a 21-point margin. Romney leads by ten points among Ohio men, and seven points among Ohio whites.

In Florida, Mr. Obama also holds a six point lead, 51 percent to 45 percent. He holds a small lead among both men and women and a 19-point lead among Hispanics, while Romney leads by double-digits among whites and voters age 65 and above.

(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...

BUT WAIT . . . . . . .

ON PAGE 8 WE FIND THE TRUTH

From p.8 of the poll:

Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?

Florida R-27 D-36 I-32 Other-4 DK/NA-1 (D+9)

Ohio R-27 D-35 I-32 Other-4 DK/NA-1 (D+8)

Pennsylvania R-32 D-38 I-26 Other-3 DK/NA-1 (D+6)

MORE BOGUS CRAP FROM THE MSM DESPERATE TO KNEEPAD OBAMA

Option D · « **Reply #16 on:** August 01, 2012, 10:56:13 AM »

Quote from: Option D on August 01, 2012, 07:11:14 AM

I swear i laughed my ass off when i read this... like seriously.. this was funny

BUMP

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #17 on:** August 01, 2012, 10:57:54 AM »

Quote from: Option D on August 01, 2012, 10:56:13 AM

BUMP

You should laugh because all the incompetent communist media is doing is giving false hope tyo delusional obama tampons that he is going to win in november.

240 is Back · « **Reply #18 on:** August 01, 2012, 11:03:24 AM »

Quote from: 333386 on August 01, 2012, 10:57:54 AM

You should laugh because all the incompetent communist media is doing is giving false hope tyo delusional obama tampons that he is going to win in november.

what do you think of party voices who will try to sell bullshit, to garner false hope (and donations)?

Cause I don't remember you scolding Rush for talking nonstop about a non-existent whitey tape, when RNC needed donations and hope...

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #19 on:** August 01, 2012, 12:51:01 PM »

A worthless new Quinnipiac poll gives Obama a big edge in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

The survey shows Obama up 6 in Ohio and Florida and 11 in Pennsylvania. These are all bigger margins than Obama received when he won all three states in 2008 -- Florida (2.8%), Ohio (4.7%). Pennsylvania(10%). It seems unlikely that Obama would be doing better in these states than he did 4 years ago. If you look at page 9 of the detailed results provided by the pollster (now linked to the New York Times and CBS for these state polls), you get the answer for the odd results:

Those surveyed revealed who they voted for in 2008. Here are the results by state (Page 9):

Florida: Obama 53%, McCain 40%

Ohio: Obama 53%, McCain 38%

Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, McCain 40%.

In other words, the bias towards Obama voters is 10% in Florida and Ohio, and 4% in Pennsylvania, compared to how people actually voted in these states in 2008.

These results are as valuable as the media that sponsored them. It is a shame that Quinnipiac, which was once respected, has thrown in with the propagandists.

Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2012/08/propaganda_poll_shows_obama_ahead.html#ixzz22KGcInTK

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #20 on:** August 02, 2012, 03:20:27 PM »

http://www.people-press.org/files/2012/08/8-2-12-Topline-for-release.pdf

Unfucking real!!!!

Oversampling Democrats by +19 and still obama only has a lead by 10!

If they sampled plus 7 like the 2008 turnout - Romney is up by 6.

Typical leftist media at it again.

Fury · « **Reply #21 on:** August 02, 2012, 06:39:51 PM »

Quote from: 333386 on August 02, 2012, 03:20:27 PM

http://www.people-press.org/files/2012/08/8-2-12-Topline-for-release.pdf

Unfucking real!!!!

Oversampling Democrats by +19 and still obama only has a lead by 10!

If they sampled plus 7 like the 2008 turnout - Romney is up by 6.

Typical leftist media at it again.

Haha, you just blew up another poll 180 wanted to post.

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #22 on:** August 02, 2012, 06:40:35 PM »

Quote from: Fury on August 02, 2012, 06:39:51 PM

Haha, you just blew up another poll 180 wanted to post.

.

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #23 on:** August 02, 2012, 07:00:44 PM »

Skip to comments.

Poll Farce: Pew Oversamples Democrats to Boost Obama
Breitbart ^ | 8/2/12 | John Nolte
Posted on August 2, 2012 9:47:19 PM EDT by Nachum

On what alternate universe will Democrats enjoy a D +19 turnout advantage over Republicans on election day? Well, that would be Planet Pew:

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted July 16-26, 2012, among 2,508 adults, including 1,956 registered voters, finds that, in keeping with his favorability advantage, Obama continues to hold a sizable lead over Romney in the election contest. Currently, 51% say they support Obama or lean toward him, while 41% support or lean toward Romney.

Except….

Sample Size

459 Republicans

813 Democrats

599 Independents

In the best election season Democrats have enjoyed since Nixon resigned, 2008, the Democrat advantage was only D+8, but Pew is now attempting to hustle us into believing the turnout this year is going to be D +19.

The internals make even less sense. According to the same Pew poll that has Obama up by 10 nationally, he's only ahead by 4 in the in the swings states but he's losing to Romney with independents 45-43%.

(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...

Hugo Chavez · « **Reply #24 on:** August 02, 2012, 07:19:27 PM »

3333, what are you going to do if Obama wins?