Winner of Presidential Race Predicted

[240 is Back]

Winner of Presidential Race Predicted

An Electoral College model that has correctly forecast the outcome of every presidential election since 1980 has chosen a 2012 winner.
Two University of Colorado professors, one from Boulder and one from Denver, have put together an Electoral College forecast model to predict who will win the 2012 presidential election and the result is bad news for Barack Obama. The model points to a Mitt Romney victory in 2012.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/22/university-of-colorado-pr_n_1822933.html

[howardroark]

From the article it appears that the model is based on economic indicators. And if that's the case, then I don't buy it. For one, you could have a third party spoiler effect (see: the Libertarian Party & Gary Johnson). Also, there are a lot of ways to spin bad economic news (see: Obama's false claims about an obstructionist Congress) or to use a bad economy to buy votes easily (see: New Deal).

[240 is Back]

someone will be REALLY wrong - global betting is all for obama.

this thing has been right since 1980. and they choose romney.

Someone is going to lose their shirt here.  if I had to bet the rent check, I still think obama winss, cause he can steal it, and he would be willing to do it.

and who/where is counting the votes again?  Ask michael savage.

[howardroark]

Not only are they predicting that Romney wins - but that Romney blows Obama out of the water. Their own electoral college prediction doesn't even remotely match the polls most favorable to Romney and the Republicans.

[Vince G, CSN MFT]

I don't think Romney is going to win because quite frankly, he's not a likable person at this point by his own party....he'll have to pull everyone together at the convention.

At least he elected Ryan as a VP...he's not a wildcat like Palin was. 

[Soul Crusher]

 

Landslide coming.    Obama is a disastrous failure beyond words. 

[Kazan]

I don't think Romney is going to win because quite frankly, he's not a likable person at this point by his own party....he'll have to pull everyone together at the convention.

At least he elected Ryan as a VP...he's not a wildcat like Palin was. 

And Obama is likeable?

[headhuntersix]

I don't think Romney is going to win because quite frankly, he's not a likable person at this point by his own party....he'll have to pull everyone together at the convention.

At least he elected Ryan as a VP...he's not a wildcat like Palin was. 

This goes right to the wire like 1980......and then Romney buries Obama. The economy is done...unemployment...do ne..failure after failure.

[syntaxmachine]

In another thread I made some shit up that successfully predicts presidential elections going back to 1960.

http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=430497.0

It's really not difficult to look back at a bunch of data and organize it a certain way such that a "model" results that supposedly predicts future events. And that's what these men have done: they have looked back at the data (the article says they just put the model together recently, i.e., it hasn't really forecasted elections since 1980, but rather was fitted to the data going back that far) rather than analyzed information specific to this election cycle.

This is why the market and polling data diverge from these guys' model, and part of the reason market data is more accurate than any such model. And, with an n (sample size) of only EIGHT, the model cannot be taken seriously. I suspect it has been produced for political purposes more than anything.

[dario73]

And Obama is likeable?

To the welfare leeches, liberal morons who want everything handed to them and who believe that government should support a person from the cradle to the grave, he is the second coming of God.

[MCWAY]

I don't think Romney is going to win because quite frankly, he's not a likable person at this point by his own party....he'll have to pull everyone together at the convention.

At least he elected Ryan as a VP...he's not a wildcat like Palin was. 

What's likable about a guy who's had 8% unemployment for 43 straight months, trillion-dollar debt for four years straight, a downgraded credit-rating, fewer jobs for college grads (despite bragging about getting more grants and loans for college students), a horrible healthcare monstrosity, etc?

[Soul Crusher]

To the welfare leeches, liberal morons who want everything handed to them and who believe that government should support a person from the cradle to the grave, he is the second coming of God.

Obama is likable to the 95'ers who like his trash talk, race pimping, jive talk, and class warfare bs.  

[24KT]

I think the outcome of the 2012 race has already been determined.
I think the occupant of the White House has already been sELECTED.
I think the rest is mere theatre.

[dario73]

Obama is likable to the 95'ers who like his trash talk, race pimping, jive talk, and class warfare bs.  

Exactly. He is held in high regards by mentally unstable individuals who blame others for their failures instead of looking in the mirror and dealing with their mediocrity.

[howardroark]

In another thread I made some shit up that successfully predicts presidential elections going back to 1960.

http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=430497.0

It's really not difficult to look back at a bunch of data and organize it a certain way such that a "model" results that supposedly predicts future events. And that's what these men have done: they have looked back at the data (the article says they just put the model together recently, i.e., it hasn't really forecasted elections since 1980, but rather was fitted to the data going back that far) rather than analyzed information specific to this election cycle.

This is why the market and polling data diverge from these guys' model, and part of the reason market data is more accurate than any such model. And, with an n (sample size) of only EIGHT, the model cannot be taken seriously. I suspect it has been produced for political purposes more than anything.

Ding ding ding! We have a winner!

[24KT]

.

[Option D]

Landslide coming.    Obama is a disastrous failure beyond words. 

And then Romney will totally rock and get this country back on track from the horrible things Obama did  

[24KT]

And then Romney will totally rock and get this country back on track from the horrible things Obama did  

Gotta love the sarcastic irony every once in a while. 

I'm hearing rumours that Romney won't make it that far though... keep your eyes on the RNC.
I'm told it's going to get very, very, VERY INTERESTING!!!

[Coach is Back!]

Winner of Presidential Race Predicted

An Electoral College model that has correctly forecast the outcome of every presidential election since 1980 has chosen a 2012 winner.
Two University of Colorado professors, one from Boulder and one from Denver, have put together an Electoral College forecast model to predict who will win the 2012 presidential election and the result is bad news for Barack Obama. The model points to a Mitt Romney victory in 2012.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/22/university-of-colorado-pr_n_1822933.html

"huffington post" haha.


Hope this helps


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-23/jobless-claims-in-u-s-climb-for-second-week-to-one-month-high.html

[Soul Crusher]

And then Romney will totally rock and get this country back on track from the horrible things Obama did  

Did I say that moron?  As part of the 99% who are blind and delusional to reality based on factors OTHER than Obama's horrible job performance, let me make it perfectly easy and clear for you to grasp. 

1.  Sticking with obama for 4 more years = 100% chance of FAIL.  Past performance is an indicator of future performance.  Obama was a train wreck with an all demo congress, and is a divisive do nothing layabout w a GOP congress since he can't get a damn thing done with his burn every bridge style of governance. 

2.  Romney = probable fail. 


Probabl fail beats out proven and certain fail every day to all but the most blind, partisan and delusional people. 

Remember these two gems ?   Defend this.