It is still early, but three polls done after the Republican National Convention in Tampa show nominee Mitt Romney with either no bump at all, or a very little bump that does little to change the race. At the beginning of the Republican National Convention, Romney advisers predicted that Romney may gain as much as 11 points in the polls once he was “re-introduced” to the public. One Romney adviser is now trying to lower those expectations, which is understandable given the polling data cited below.
The best poll for Romney comes from Rasmussen Reports. A poll released today from Rasmussen shows Romney ahead of Obama 48 percent to 44 percent. Rasmussen’s poll was conducted exclusively after Romney delivered his acceptance in Tampa last Thursday. While those numbers are certainly positive for Romney, the numbers are little changed from Rasmussen’s data before the Republican National Convention, when the pollster had Romney with a two-point lead in the polls. According to Nate Silver of the New York Times, conventions have given a presidential candidate an average bounce of 5-6 points since 1964, and the challenger usually benefits more than the incumbent. However, Rasmussen only has Romney gaining two points.
Another poll from Reuters/Ipsos has worse post-convention numbers for Romney. According to a Reuters released yesterday, President Obama currently leads Romney 44 percent to 43 percent. The Reuters poll was specifically designed to measure a potential Romney bump by polling respondents each day of the convention season. Reuters initially had Romney gaining one point on Friday and 2 points on Thursday, but Romney’s bump has now entirely disappeared according to the Reuters data.
The last poll from Gallup also shows no real help for Romney from the RNC. A Gallup poll released yesterday shows President Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent for Romney. To be fair, Gallup’s poll may not include all of a Romney bump since Gallup uses a seven-day tracking poll, and therefore includes many responses before or during the Republican National Convention. Still, at the beginning of the Republican National Convention Gallup had Romney with a one-point lead on Obama, so according to their data Romney actually lost ground to Obama during the convention.
While Romney appears to have gained little to nothing at his convention, the data might also indicate that President Obama has little to gain at the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte this week. If voters were turned off by the message they saw in Tampa then the Democrats might be able to see more gains by communicating a different message in Charlotte. However, if voters are simply ignoring or discounting what they hear at the conventions then Obama is also likely to see little-to-no bump in the polls, and the conventions will be nothing than a lot of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
