Author Topic: Why the polls understate the Romney vote  (Read 1064 times)

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Why the polls understate the Romney vote
« on: September 21, 2012, 05:23:31 PM »
Republicans are getting depressed under an avalanche of polling suggesting that an Obama victory is in the offing. They, in fact, suggest no such thing! Here’s why:

1. All of the polling out there uses some variant of the 2008 election turnout as its model for weighting respondents and this overstates the Democratic vote by a huge margin.

In English, this means that when you do a poll you ask people if they are likely to vote. But any telephone survey always has too few blacks, Latinos, and young people and too many elderly in its sample. That’s because some don’t have landlines or are rarely at home or don’t speak English well enough to be interviewed or don’t have time to talk. Elderly are overstated because they tend to be home and to have time. So you need to increase the weight given to interviews with young people, blacks and Latinos and count those with seniors a bit less.

Normally, this task is not difficult. Over the years, the black, Latino, young, and elderly proportion of the electorate has been fairly constant from election to election, except for a gradual increase in the Hispanic vote. You just need to look back at the last election to weight your polling numbers for this one.

But 2008 was no ordinary election. Blacks, for example, usually cast only 11% of the vote, but, in 2008, they made up 14% of the vote. Latinos increased their share of the vote by 1.5% and college kids almost doubled their vote share. Almost all pollsters are using the 2008 turnout models in weighting their samples. Rasmussen, more accurately, uses a mixture of 2008 and 2004 turnouts in determining his sample. That’s why his data usually is better for Romney.

But polling indicates a widespread lack of enthusiasm among Obama’s core demographic support due to high unemployment, disappointment with his policies and performance, and the lack of novelty in voting for a black candidate now that he has already served as president.

If you adjust virtually any of the published polls to reflect the 2004 vote, not the 2008 vote, they show the race either tied or Romney ahead, a view much closer to reality.

2. Almost all of the published polls show Obama getting less than 50% of the vote and less than 50% job approval. A majority of the voters either support Romney or are undecided in almost every poll.

But the fact is that the undecided vote always goes against the incumbent. In 1980 (the last time an incumbent Democrat was beaten), for example, the Gallup Poll of October 27th had Carter ahead by 45-39. Their survey on November 2nd showed Reagan catching up and leading by three points. In the actual voting, the Republican won by nine. The undecided vote broke sharply — and unanimously — for the challenger.

An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just won’t focus on the race until later in the game.

So, when the published poll shows Obama ahead by, say, 48-45, he’s really probably losing by 52-48!

Add these two factors together and the polls that are out there are all misleading. Any professional pollster (those consultants hired by candidates not by media outlets) would publish two findings for each poll — one using 2004 turnout modeling and the other using 2008 modeling. This would indicate just how dependent on an unusually high turnout of his base the Obama camp really is.

http://www.dickmorris.com/why-the-polls-under-state-romney-vote/

syntaxmachine

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Re: Why the polls understate the Romney vote
« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2012, 05:43:22 PM »
Even if true, one can just look at market data -- which tends to be more accurate than polling data -- to get a good idea of the outcome. And the market data indicates the same thing as polls.

tonymctones

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Re: Why the polls understate the Romney vote
« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2012, 06:20:55 PM »
Even if true, one can just look at market data -- which tends to be more accurate than polling data -- to get a good idea of the outcome. And the market data indicates the same thing as polls.
what market data are you referring to syntax?

syntaxmachine

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Re: Why the polls understate the Romney vote
« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2012, 07:58:20 PM »
what market data are you referring to syntax?

Tony, I am referring to both Intrade (http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474) and the Iowa Electronic Markets (http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/pres12.html).

Edit: The link to the Iowa Electronic Markets ought to work now. It indicates a 74.5% probability of Obama winning.

240 is Back

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Re: Why the polls understate the Romney vote
« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2012, 11:17:44 PM »
Obama is up to 71.9% on intrade.    That's nuts. 


Romney's gotta do something, and fast. 

Coach is Back!

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Re: Why the polls understate the Romney vote
« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2012, 11:21:05 PM »
Obama is up to 71.9% on intrade.    That's nuts. 


Romney's gotta do something, and fast. 

At this point it doesn't mean shit and you apparently didn't read the article.

Necrosis

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Re: Why the polls understate the Romney vote
« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2012, 03:25:04 AM »
At this point it doesn't mean shit and you apparently didn't read the article.

you didn't get much education did you?

it's over for romney, he is a done.

andreisdaman

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Re: Why the polls understate the Romney vote
« Reply #7 on: September 22, 2012, 06:21:16 AM »
I hate you coach but I think you are right on this.....I think the Romney vote is much bigger than people think....I honestly expect an upset come election day.....I think Romney will pretty much win in a squeaker....if he takes Florida and doesn't fuck up in the debates he will win

Soul Crusher

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Re: Why the polls understate the Romney vote
« Reply #8 on: September 22, 2012, 06:24:22 AM »
I hate you coach but I think you are right on this.....I think the Romney vote is much bigger than people think....I honestly expect an upset come election day.....I think Romney will pretty much win in a squeaker....if he takes Florida and doesn't fuck up in the debates he will win

Just remember to vote on November 8th

andreisdaman

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Re: Why the polls understate the Romney vote
« Reply #9 on: September 22, 2012, 06:37:47 AM »
Just remember to vote on November 8th

you remember as well..although you won't because that would mean you actually would have leave the basement and come out into the sunshine :o

Hawk

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Re: Why the polls understate the Romney vote
« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2012, 06:35:35 PM »
you remember as well..although you won't because that would mean you actually would have leave the basement and come out into the sunshine :o
  :D ;)

Yep, election day will be the day Willard "Empty Suit" Romney gets his ASS handed to him.  :)

Coach is Back!

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Re: Why the polls understate the Romney vote
« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2012, 09:20:09 PM »
  :D ;)

Yep, election day will be the day Willard "Empty Suit" Romney gets his ASS handed to him.  :)

Yet, not one person can give a legit reason why Obama should win. Go figure. BTW, don't count on that. That administration is in panic mode right now. As articulate as Syntax is coming off, I'm getting first hand info. As of right now (as always) their entire campaign is based on lies. Not even joking.

blacken700

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Re: Why the polls understate the Romney vote
« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2012, 07:50:25 AM »
Yet, not one person can give a legit reason why Obama should win. Go figure. BTW, don't count on that. That administration is in panic mode right now. As articulate as Syntax is coming off, I'm getting first hand info.from 333386 As of right now (as always) their entire campaign is based on lies. Not even joking.

^^^^^^^
correction  :D

Necrosis

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Re: Why the polls understate the Romney vote
« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2012, 09:00:55 AM »
Yet, not one person can give a legit reason why Obama should win. Go figure. BTW, don't count on that. That administration is in panic mode right now. As articulate as Syntax is coming off, I'm getting first hand info. As of right now (as always) their entire campaign is based on lies. Not even joking.

man are you a dolt.

Coach is Back!

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Re: Why the polls understate the Romney vote
« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2012, 09:21:46 AM »
man are you a dolt.

Oh really? How so? Don't just say shit with out backing it.

Necrosis

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Re: Why the polls understate the Romney vote
« Reply #15 on: September 23, 2012, 11:11:57 AM »
Oh really? How so? Don't just say shit with out backing it.

the fact that you say liberals lie yet you seem oblivious that it occurs on the other side, perhaps even more so. The fact that you think romney has a chance to win, his campaign is a disaster.

Soul Crusher

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Re: Why the polls understate the Romney vote
« Reply #16 on: September 23, 2012, 11:38:39 AM »
the fact that you say liberals lie yet you seem oblivious that it occurs on the other side, perhaps even more so. The fact that you think romney has a chance to win, his campaign is a disaster.

Bloth sides lie - its only the leftists hacks and idiots like yourself that deny reality

Necrosis

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Re: Why the polls understate the Romney vote
« Reply #17 on: September 23, 2012, 11:42:38 AM »
Bloth sides lie - its only the leftists hacks and idiots like yourself that deny reality

ok mister there is no global warming.. You were complaining about romney not even months ago now your a teamster like always.


Soul Crusher

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Re: Why the polls understate the Romney vote
« Reply #18 on: September 23, 2012, 11:51:36 AM »
ok mister there is no global warming.. You were complaining about romney not even months ago now your a teamster like always.



LOL about globalist warming.  STFU moron.   

Both romney and obama suck - its just that ghettothugbama is aproven fail while rmoney is a probably fail.  Easy choice 

Coach is Back!

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Re: Why the polls understate the Romney vote
« Reply #19 on: September 23, 2012, 05:37:55 PM »
the fact that you say liberals lie yet you seem oblivious that it occurs on the other side, perhaps even more so. The fact that you think romney has a chance to win, his campaign is a disaster.

True, both sides lie but damn dude, not even close to the extent that the left does. If someone from the right even misspeaks you call then liars. But the left makes it so blatant and provable it makes obvious. Just look at the spin did with the Libyan situation and what their doing with Romneys taxes ALL PROVABLE lies. This is fact.