Good stuff! 
Sept 26, 2012
The best indication of how Mitt Romney would handle a disaster is how he’s handling his campaign right now—it’s not only a disaster, it’s a disaster that he created. New polls show Obama widening his lead in the crucial swing states of Ohio and Florida. For Mitt, that’s two swings, and two misses. Obama is leading in the state that’s round on the ends and “hi” in the middle. And he’s leading in the state that’s... well, that’s Florida. Florida is just phallic, from its Pensacola to its Tortugas. Those even sound like things you’d see on a doctor’s chart of the male genitalia. “Your Pensacola is sore because you’ve got Dry Tortugas. Try some ointment.”
On the campaign trail, Mitt Romney admitted that President Obama did not raise taxes. It was an accident—once again, Mitt created such a circle of lies that he came 360 degrees around to the truth. Mitt! Your whole campaign is built on lies. You should know not to say certain things just from the fact that they are true. Of course, as soon as they found out that Mitt had accidentally said something true, his campaign issued a correction. Well, I guess you would have to call it an “in-correction.” Mitt is living proof that it’s easy enough to lie, but it’s rather difficult to lie consistently.
Mitt is trying to use Paul Ryan to save his campaign. He actually has to use Ryan to appeal to his own base. We’re well into the general election, and Mitt still hasn’t really won the primary! Now Romney and Ryan are campaigning together. The campaign is hoping that Ryan can draw crowds, where they can try to force Mitt Romney down their throat. It’s like when you have to give your dog a pill so you wrap it in something they like. Mitt Romney is a de-worming pill, and Paul Ryan is a scoop of peanut butter.
The deadline for Todd “Legitimate Rape” Akin to drop out of the Senate race in Missouri has come and gone—and so has any chance the Republicans had of winning the Senate race in Missouri. As soon as the deadline to withdraw passed, Akin’s Democratic opponent Claire McCaskill released an ad documenting the “top 10 crazy Akin moments.” I’m sure that took some selective editing—not to make the quotes sound crazy, to edit it down to 10!
The published polling in this year’s presidential race is unusually inaccurate because this is the first election in which who votes determines how they vote. Obama’s massive leads among blacks, Latinos, young people, and single women vie with Romney’s margin among the elderly, married white women, and white men. Tell me your demographic and I’ll tell you who you’re voting for and I’ll be right at least two times out of three!
Most pollsters are weighting their data on the assumption that the 2012 electorate will turn out in the same proportion as the 2008 voters did. But polling indicates a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the president among his core constituency. He’ll still carry them by heavy margins, but the turnout will likely lag behind the 2008 stats. (The 2008 turnout was totally unlike that in other years with all-time historic high turnouts among Obama’s main demographic groups).
Specifically, most pollsters are using 2008 party preferences to weight their 2012 survey samples, reflecting a much larger Democratic preference than is now really the case.
In my own polling, I found a lurch to the Democrats right after their convention, but subsequent research indicates that it has since petered out. Indeed, when one compares party identification in the August and September polls of this year in swing states, the Democratic Party identification is flat while the ranks of Republicans rose by an average of two points per state.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate’s partisan preferences.
Finally, with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can’t get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won’t ever get there in the actual vote.
So here’s where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen’s polling:
• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).
• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana – which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)
• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He’ll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).
This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But…
• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:
• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)
• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)
If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.
• Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)
• Obama’s lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll
• Obama is only getting 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 53% in New Jersey. And don’t count out New Mexico.
It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:
• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.
• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher
• The GOP field organization is better.
That’s the real state of play today.
