Romney doesn't need to get 100% of the undecided voters to beat Obama.
My logic pertains to the poll I used an example, viz., the Rasmussen poll indicating a 50-49 lead for Obama in Ohio. This means that only 1% of voters there remain undecided and that by extension Romney will have to win that entire 1% just to tie Obama. In other words, if the election were held today, Romney could not win (given that the poll is accurate and that Ohio is necessary but not sufficient for a Republican victory).
As for the heavy hitters sitting out, that doesn't make much sense. Romney was/is one such heavy hitter.
We'll simply have to agree to disagree on this matter. Given the current status of the GOP, I for one do not think that a one-term, pro-life governor counts as a 'heavy hitter', especially
not when there are more popular politicians on offer (e.g., Christie). Despite a historically vulnerable incumbent, we had a Republican primary with Herman Cain leading the polls for weeks. The best explanation for this fact needs to cite a lack of heavy hitters, or so it seems to me.
This warped idea that you have that people are somehow afraid of Obama is without merit.
It isn't my idea, for I said no such thing. What I did say is that the electoral college situation is 'intimidating' in that it presents challenging prospects for a Republican victory, regardless of the candidate.
And there's nothing intimidating about the electoral college. There's basically no state that McCain won in 2008 that looks to flip blue. It's all about the swing states. While Romney has to win more of them than Obama does, as the polls suggest, that's hardly a lock for the president at this point.
1. McCain didn't win very many states, so the fact that none of them are liable to flip blue doesn't affect the proposition that this election cycle marks a challenging race for Republicans.
2. Yes, the swing states will decide the election. The same swing states Obama has had grassroots organizations operative in for several years and where his numbers have been strong for a similar amount of time (this has of course changed in several of them, but the current topic is what the prospects were for a Republican victory at the start of the cycle -- what a Republican deciding to run in the primary would be looking at -- and not the current prospects). Incumbent presidents win 80% of the time as is; the above facts would only reinforce the tendency of a qualified candidate to wait this cycle out.