Romney ready to concede Ohio?

[Soul Crusher]

I have always been a believer in data telling me the full story. Truth is, nobody knows what will happen on Election Day. But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.

As opposed to mere differences of opinion we may have, here you are blatantly wrong on two accounts:

1. The margin of error for a metapoll (a poll of polls) is going to be much lower than the margin of error for any given poll; a rather particular calculation is required to determine its precise value. You have no idea what the margin of error is -- it goes without saying you haven't run the numbers -- and thus cannot assert whether 2.4 is within its bounds or not.

2. Even if 2.4 were within the MOE, given a specific margin of error and percentage lead, it is possible to calculate the probability that a given candidate really is ahead and thus whether they would win if the election were held today. If we assume a much higher MOE than is really the case, say, 4.0, Nate's metapoll still indicates an almost 74% chance of an Obama victory in Ohio. This isn't an effective tie in the slightest.

3. (1) and (2) derive from basic facts about statistics, so Nate's being a propagandist for the Democrats, if true, doesn't affect their veracity in the slightest -- attacking the messenger's character as you have done won't make the facts go away.

In this instance at least, the data -- and reality more generally -- has a liberal bias.

lol

[Montague]

I have a feeling that, outside the union families (especially the auto workers' union), Romney had the edge.

It sounds like Romney may even have a good chunk of the union demographic.

I was quite surprised at my relatives' new rhetoric, considering they are ALL union people. In fact, my Uncle worked for Ford Motors for about forty years. While retired now, he draws a damn nice pension, his daughter is in a strong union, and his son-in-law belongs to the elctrician's union.

They've always gotten into political arguments with my other Aunt & Uncle, who are ULTRA-conservative. I was astonished at how well everyone got along and how much agreement there was last weekend every time politics came up.

[240 is Back]

I have always been a believer in data telling me the full story. Truth is, nobody knows what will happen on Election Day. But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.

How is obama winning in the exit polls by 2.4%, if way more repubs are voting?  

Are the repubs choosing Obama?   Shit, if that's the case, yikes.

[Soul Crusher]

How is obama winning in the exit polls by 2.4%, if way more repubs are voting?  

Are the repubs choosing Obama?   Shit, if that's the case, yikes.

LOL!!!!!!!!   remember Wisconsin exit polls you stupid fuck? 

[MCWAY]

As opposed to mere differences of opinion we may have, here you are blatantly wrong on two accounts:

1. The margin of error for a metapoll (a poll of polls) is going to be much lower than the margin of error for any given poll; a rather particular calculation is required to determine its precise value. You have no idea what the margin of error is -- it goes without saying you haven't run the numbers -- and thus cannot assert whether 2.4 is within its bounds or not.

2. Even if 2.4 were within the MOE, given a specific margin of error and percentage lead, it is possible to calculate the probability that a given candidate really is ahead and thus whether they would win if the election were held today. If we assume a much higher MOE than is really the case, say, 4.0, Nate's metapoll still indicates an almost 74% chance of an Obama victory in Ohio. This isn't an effective tie in the slightest.

3. (1) and (2) derive from basic facts about statistics, so Nate's being a propagandist for the Democrats, if true, doesn't affect their veracity in the slightest -- attacking the messenger's character as you have done won't make the facts go away


In this instance at least, the data -- and reality more generally -- has a liberal bias.

lol

First, the election isn't being held today and the longer Obama is under 50%, the more vulnerable he is. Most margins of error are 3 points; a few are 4 to 4.5. Either way you slice it, Obama's having a 2.4 lead in Ohio, THIS LATE, is hardly good news for him.

Second, Silver's bias affects his veracity based on how he weighs certain polls vs. others. I posted a link about that a few days ago.

[MCWAY]

come on man, you didn't know if you don't win ohio it makes it easier  

Obviously, you've yet to purchase one of those things called clues.

I never claimed it'd be easier for Romney to win without Ohio. What I've said, REPEATEDLY, that Wisconsin's being in play makes Romney's path to winning without Ohio (should that be the case) much more plausible.

[POB]

It sounds like Romney may even have a good chunk of the union demographic.

I was quite surprised at my relatives' new rhetoric, considering they are ALL union people. In fact, my Uncle worked for Ford Motors for about forty years. While retired now, he draws a damn nice pension, his daughter is in a strong union, and his son-in-law belongs to the elctrician's union.

They've always gotten into political arguments with my other Aunt & Uncle, who are ULTRA-conservative. I was astonished at how well everyone got along and how much agreement there was last weekend every time politics came up.

There's no way union people are behind Romney, especially the auto industry he wanted to let fail...

[Soul Crusher]

There's no way union people are behind Romney, especially the auto industry he wanted to let fail...

Same thing was said in Wisconsin. 

[LATS]

 Read what Romney said.. Hr said he would have helped the auto industry but not wih tax payers money.. He wanted government to secure the loans..  In the end it was essentially the same.. But we will never get that money back..

[Soul Crusher]

Free Republic
Browse · Search   Pings · Mail   News/Activism
Topics · Post Article
Skip to comments.

Dem warning: Obama could lose Wisconsin
The Washington Examiner ^ | 10/28/12 | Alan Blinder
Posted on October 28, 2012, 5:30:11 PM EDT by markomalley

The Democratic mayor of Denver said Sunday that President Obama could lose the battleground state of Wisconsin if the incumbent’s supporters fail to increase early voter turnout in the Badger State.

“If the election was held today, President Barack Obama would lose the state of Wisconsin because where his base is, we have not turned out the vote early," Mayor Michael Hancock told a Democratic rally. "The suburbs and rural parts of Wisconsin – the Republican base – are voting. President Obama’s base has yet to go vote.

"We've got to get our people to go vote," Hancock said.

Early voting, which began in Wisconsin on Oct. 22, is a central component of Obama’s strategy to win the state. The president won Wisconsin four years ago by 14 percentage points, but recent polls show the race with Republican Mitt Romney tightening, and that is fueling Republican enthusiasm about their chances of seizing the state.

In a later interview with The Washington Examiner, Hancock said he was confident Obama would emerge from Wisconsin victorious.

“There’s a great deal of enthusiasm,” Hancock said. “We expect clearly that President Obama will win the state of Wisconsin.”

But he also said that it’s vital for Obama’s base to make it to the polls in Wisconsin.

“This is a very close race, and the point we’re trying to make is make sure the base shows up, turns out and begins to vote early,” Hancock said. “I saw where the votes were rolling in, and I said we’ve got to make sure that where the president’s base is, they get out and vote.”

Hancock was in Wisconsin to stump for Obama, but the Obama campaign said their surrogates portrayal of where the race stands doesn't match the early voting statistics they've seen.

“We are very grateful that Mayor Hancock came and did what we need to do, which is keep people enthused. He is absolutely right that we have to get our base out,” Joe Zepecki, a spokesman for Obama’s campaign in Wisconsin, said. “But the numbers we are seeing do not back up his assessment that our base is not turning out.”

Zepecki said the campaign remains optimistic nine days from Election Day.

“We are seeing a lot of enthusiasm and a lot of turnout in the places where we need to see it,” Zepecki said. “We’re very confident.”

[Primemuscle]

Latest Electoral Map

[Primemuscle]

KING OF PRUSSIA, Pa. -- If Mitt Romney were to make a last-minute move to expand his electoral map, Ground Zero for that effort likely would be here amid the suburban sprawl of Montgomery County, outside of Philadelphia.
 
But as about 20 Obama campaign volunteers gathered Thursday night for another evening of phone-banking, there was little concern among the Democratic partisans inside Dave Hopkins’ actuarial office just off of the Pennsylvania Turnpike.

Confidence about the president carrying Pennsylvania has always been high here, as he has not trailed in a single state poll since February and leads Romney by 4.8 percentage points in the latest RCP Average.

But there is added reason for Obama’s Keystone State legions to feel optimistic with just a week and a half to go until Election Day: The Romney camp has not aired a single TV ad in Pennsylvania, and the former Massachusetts governor has not set foot here in a month.
 
“If he thought he could win, Romney would be doing something really strong here, and he’s not,” said Cindy Bellamy, the local neighborhood team leader for the Obama campaign. “And that’s because he doesn’t have any hope.”
 
Romney’s running mate, Paul Ryan, did hold a rally in the Pittsburgh suburb of Moon Township last Saturday, and Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus on Friday headlined a campaign bus tour through western Pennsylvania with former Gov. Tom Ridge, Pittsburgh Steelers great Lynn Swann, and other Republican surrogates.
 
But Mary Isenhour, a longtime Democratic strategist in the state, said the GOP nominee’s campaign here has been as quiet as she has ever seen one at this stage of the game. Isenhour did not even feign concern that a last-minute Romney blitz could close the gap.
 
“This is a really big state with a whole lot of people in it,” she said. “You can’t drop 60 or 80 people here, even with three or four weeks, and expect to deliver anything. It just doesn’t work that way.”
 
But Republicans insist they see glimmers of hope both here and in Michigan -- Romney’s birth state and another potentially inviting late target, where he trails by an even smaller margin of 4 percent in the latest RCP Average.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/10/27/pa_among_reach_states_tempting_romney_camp_115937.html

[240 is Back]

LOL!!!!!!!!   remember Wisconsin exit polls you stupid fuck? 

I hadn't thought about it like that.   Calling me a stupid fucck really cleared things up.

[Primemuscle]

Sans toss up.

[Primemuscle]

More data.

[Soul Crusher]

More data.

Funny - Obama has been so great that he is doing worse in every state than from 2008.

[blacken700]

Funny - Obama has been so great that he is doing worse in every state than from 2008.

shit, i didn't know 2008 obama was running against 2012 obama,thanks 

[Soul Crusher]

shit, i didn't know 2008 obama was running against 2012 obama,thanks 

Actually he is.  Obama 2008 was a media creation.    Obama 2012 is a traitor and THUG with blood on his hands.

[tonymctones]

shit, i didn't know 2008 obama was running against 2012 obama,thanks 

LOL didnt know obama ran against bush in 2008 and now either...Thanks LOL

[blacken700]

he ran against mccain remember 

[Soul Crusher]

he ran against mccain remember 

Yeah and now he has a disastrous record he can't defend. 

[Necrosis]

Read what Romney said.. Hr said he would have helped the auto industry but not wih tax payers money.. He wanted government to secure the loans..  In the end it was essentially the same.. But we will never get that money back..

LOL Romney said nothing of the sort, jesus, you can't go back and change the past to suit your needs.

[Soul Crusher]

LOL Romney said nothing of the sort, jesus, you can't go back and change the past to suit your needs.

we went though a managed bananktuptcy for GM moron.   

[blacken700]

yes you can it's done all the time here

[Soul Crusher]

yes you can it's done all the time here

When OTHUG gets landslided are you going to burn down your hood?