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Author Topic: Politico: Obama retakes lead  (Read 464 times)
blacken700
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« on: October 29, 2012, 07:04:29 AM »

MARION, Ohio — With eight days to go until the election, President Barack Obama has recaptured a narrow national lead over Mitt Romney, riding increased support from women and an edge in early voting.
 
A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — taken from last Monday through Thursday — shows Obama ahead of Romney by 1 percent, 49 to 48 percent. That represents a 3-point swing in Obama’s direction from a week ago but reflects a race that remains statistically tied.
 
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82986.html?hp=f3

Even Politico has to give it up, Obama is surging.
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mogulgangi
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2012, 07:06:10 AM »

Blecken, your lust for obama is creepy...slow down buddy

By the way, politico is extremly liberal..no credible
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garebear
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2012, 07:07:25 AM »

Blecken, your lust for obama is creepy...slow down buddy

By the way, politico is extremly liberal..no credible
It's probably a conspiracy.

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G
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2012, 07:15:26 AM »

Blecken, your lust for obama is creepy...slow down buddy

By the way, politico is extremly liberal..no credible

funny how you don't say rass is right leaning,but that's what i would expect Grin
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2012, 07:22:08 AM »

it's still tied, for all intents and purposes.   Things might be trending Obama, but romney is still in excellent shape for a win.
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GigantorX
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2012, 07:26:08 AM »

it's still tied, for all intents and purposes.   Things might be trending Obama, but romney is still in excellent shape for a win.

Poll is skewed by early voting and how early voters are counted.

Still a tight race.
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2012, 07:29:08 AM »

Poll is skewed by early voting and how early voters are counted.

Still a tight race.

yep.  I have to think the number of 'undecided' voters are very very small now. 

It's just about how many people who answer poll calls are going to actually get up and vote. 
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MCWAY
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2012, 08:22:51 AM »

MARION, Ohio — With eight days to go until the election, President Barack Obama has recaptured a narrow national lead over Mitt Romney, riding increased support from women and an edge in early voting.
 
A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — taken from last Monday through Thursday — shows Obama ahead of Romney by 1 percent, 49 to 48 percent. That represents a 3-point swing in Obama’s direction from a week ago but reflects a race that remains statistically tied.
 
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82986.html?hp=f3

Even Politico has to give it up, Obama is surging.

Not quite, Blacken.

First, early voting means ZILCH. You will recall the Dems had early voting advantages in the 2010 midterms and in the Wisconsin recall races.

They got SMOKED in both of those races.


Second, Obama being by one, this late (effectively a tied) is BAD NEWS, no matter how you try to spin it. Incumbents having leads this narrow, this late, tend to lose (given the undecided factor).

Third, not only is Obama struggling to hold on to Ohio (Rasmussen has Romney up 50-48), he now has to worried about Wisconsin. And, now there are rumblings that Minnesota could be a wildcard.


Yep! Just what every incumbent president wants with a little over a week left.
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Necrosis
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2012, 08:39:36 AM »

Not quite, Blacken.

First, early voting means ZILCH. You will recall the Dems had early voting advantages in the 2010 midterms and in the Wisconsin recall races.

They got SMOKED in both of those races.


Second, Obama being by one, this late (effectively a tied) is BAD NEWS, no matter how you try to spin it. Incumbents having leads this narrow, this late, tend to lose (given the undecided factor).

Third, not only is Obama struggling to hold on to Ohio (Rasmussen has Romney up 50-48), he now has to worried about Wisconsin. And, now there are rumblings that Minnesota could be a wildcard.


Yep! Just what every incumbent president wants with a little over a week left.


you actually sound like you work for FOX, the same responses, same everything. It's creepy.
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2012, 08:41:09 AM »

you actually sound like you work for FOX, the same responses, same everything. It's creepy.

You sound like Madcows' dirty bra - go away. 
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MCWAY
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2012, 08:44:48 AM »

you actually sound like you work for FOX, the same responses, same everything. It's creepy.

What's the matter, citing the facts getting on your little nerves, Necrosis?

Fox News has nothing to do with early voting being worthless, in terms of Obama's so-called surge. I'm sorry you don't like hearing that the Dems got clobbered in 2010 and 2012 (Wisconsin), despite having the early voting edge.

BTW, I didn't post until today that Romney now leads in Ohio (Rasmuseen).

Apparently, neither you nor Blacken can quite comprehend that there are significant differences, between open presidential races and those with an incumbent president.

One of those would be: Under 50% and statistically TIED, this late.....BAD NEWS!!
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Necrosis
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2012, 09:00:00 AM »

What's the matter, citing the facts getting on your little nerves, Necrosis?

Fox News has nothing to do with early voting being worthless, in terms of Obama's so-called surge. I'm sorry you don't like hearing that the Dems got clobbered in 2010 and 2012 (Wisconsin), despite having the early voting edge.

BTW, I didn't post until today that Romney now leads in Ohio (Rasmuseen).

Apparently, neither you nor Blacken can quite comprehend that there are significant differences, between open presidential races and those with an incumbent president.

One of those would be: Under 50% and statistically TIED, this late.....BAD NEWS!!

dude cmon, you believe in jesus and noah and you are claiming I am afraid of facts? you think evolution is false and global warming a hoax. I don't even need to read what you wrote to know that you, at your core, are a liar and idealogue.
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2012, 09:04:09 AM »

dude cmon, you believe in jesus and noah and you are claiming I am afraid of facts? you think evolution is false and global warming a hoax. I don't even need to read what you wrote to know that you, at your core, are a liar and idealogue.

You believe in Obama - you are TRUMPED   
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MCWAY
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2012, 09:23:50 AM »

dude cmon, you believe in jesus and noah and you are claiming I am afraid of facts? you think evolution is false and global warming a hoax. I don't even need to read what you wrote to know that you, at your core, are a liar and idealogue.

Talk about saying the same stuff. Every time I rip one of your little tirades up and you can't answer, you start dragging religious stuff or anything else that has NOTHING to do with the topic at hand.

That pretty much makes you a spineless hack.

These recent political happening has ZILCH to do with Fox News or my religious belief. But, it clearly shows how utterly pathetic your tripe truly is.

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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2012, 09:35:26 AM »

Romney can't match Obama's ground game in Ohio and that is going to give Obama the edge in actually getting voters out to the polls
Also keep in mind that Ohio voters overturned Republicans restrictive collective bargaining laws by an overwhelming margin of 61 to 39%
What are the odds those same voters are going to show up and vote for Romney ?

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/10/obamas-edge-the-ground-game-that-could-put-him-over-the-top/264031/
http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/11/ohio_voters_overwhelmingly_rej.html

In Virginai having Virgil Goode is going to cost Romney the election

I predict both Ohio and Virginia will go to Obama

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He won by a "landslide" lol


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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2012, 09:40:02 AM »

MARION, Ohio — With eight days to go until the election, President Barack Obama has recaptured a narrow national lead over Mitt Romney, riding increased support from women and an edge in early voting.
 
A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — taken from last Monday through Thursday — shows Obama ahead of Romney by 1 percent, 49 to 48 percent. That represents a 3-point swing in Obama’s direction from a week ago but reflects a race that remains statistically tied.
 
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82986.html?hp=f3




The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent.  The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.
Obama and Romney

While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.

Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate.  His coattails would help elect GOP Senate candidates in Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.  “Republicans are now certain to hold the House,” Goeas said, “regardless of how the presidential race turns out.”

The poll’s election model takes into account variables including voter intensity, age, and education, and voters who are certain in their vote.  The race “remains very close in the surface,” Goeas said, “but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.”

The projected outcome by the Battleground Poll is close to that of the Gallup Poll.  Last week, Gallup said Romney leads Obama 49 percent to 46 percent in its model of the electorate’s composition on November 6.

The Battleground Poll is conducted by Goeas of the Tarrance Group and Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners.  Goeas is a Republican, Lake a Democrat.  The survey is affiliated with Politico and George Washington University.
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Taken last week, the poll found that only 37 percent of voters believe the country is headed in the right direction.  For an incumbent president to win reelection, that number normally must exceed 40 percent.  “Everyone but the core Democratic constituencies holds the strongly held feeling that the country is off on the wrong track,” Goeas said.

For the first time this year, Romney has a majority favorable image. His favorability rating is 52 percent, Obama’s is 51 percent.  According to the poll, Romney is viewed favorably by a majority of independents (59 percent), seniors (57), married voters (61), moms (56), college graduates (54), middle class voters (56), and middle class families (61).

UPDATE: Politico reports on the poll's top-line: Obama 49, Romney 48 percent. But it is the noteworthy last paragraph from Goeas's memo that we're referring to: "In sum, this data indicates this election remains very close on the surface, but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney. These factors come into play with our “vote election model” – which takes into account variables like vote intensity, voters who say they are definite in their vote, and demographics like age and education. In that snapshot of today’s vote model, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by five-points – 52% to 47%. While that gap can certainly be closed by the ground game of the Democrats, reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory."


Even Politico has to give it up, Obama is surging.

http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/new-poll-projects-romney-52-obama-47_658066.html
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He won by a "landslide" lol


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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2012, 09:44:21 AM »

You need to follow up with the updates dude. Your boy is getting blown out of the water. Like I said, he'll either win by the slimmest of margins or it's going to be the biggest landslide in presidential history. Right now it looks like the latter.
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MCWAY
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« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2012, 09:52:06 AM »

Romney can't match Obama's ground game in Ohio and that is going to give Obama the edge in actually getting voters out to the polls
Also keep in mind that Ohio voters overturned Republicans restrictive collective bargaining laws by an overwhelming margin of 61 to 39%
What are the odds those same voters are going to show up and vote for Romney ?

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/10/obamas-edge-the-ground-game-that-could-put-him-over-the-top/264031/
http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/11/ohio_voters_overwhelmingly_rej.html

In Virginai having Virgil Goode is going to cost Romney the election

I predict both Ohio and Virginia will go to Obama



The legend of Dems' mighty ground game got shot to pieces in 2010 and 2012 (Wisconsin).

Virgil Goode isn't going to do jack to Romney, especially with more recent polls having Romney UP by a least two.

Not to mention, a key demographic in Virginia is suburban women. They tend to be married (with kids); guess who hold the edge in that department.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-virginia-2012-20121028,0,6950197.story

In the poll cited there, Obama went from being up seven to being DOWN 2. In both cases, Obama is under 50%........not a good sign, this close to the election.
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« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2012, 09:54:23 AM »

The legend of Dems' mighty ground game got shot to pieces in 2010 and 2012 (Wisconsin).
Virgil Goode isn't going to do jack to Romney, especially with more recent polls having Romney UP by a least two.

Not to mention, a key demographic in Virginia is suburban women. They tend to be married (with kids); guess who hold the edge in that department.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-virginia-2012-20121028,0,6950197.story

In the poll cited there, Obama went from being up seven to being DOWN 2. In both cases, Obama is under 50%........not a good sign, this close to the election.

neither of those elections  included Obama and it was his "legendary" ground game that won the day in 2008 and will do so again in 2010

if you recall, Obama didn't even go to Wisconsin in 2010

I hope your polls will be a comfort to you on election night when Obama wins both Ohio and Virginia
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« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2012, 09:59:03 AM »

neither of those elections  included Obama and it was his "legendary" ground game that won the day in 2008 and will do so again in 2010

if you recall, Obama didn't even go to Wisconsin in 2010

I hope your polls will be a comfort to you on election night when Obama wins both Ohio and Virginia


You're one to talk. You'd better invest in a whole lot of Kleenex, just to be safe.

Furthermore, the Wisconsin recall was in 2012. And, I know Obama didn't go to Wisconsin, another broken promise as he claimed he'd put on his comfortable shoes and march with the union folks there.

As usual, Obama is playing the role of coward, not wanting to be associated with another Barret less.

The GOP can match the Dems' ground game, voter for voter, as they did in the aforementioned elections. That explains why, despite the early voter edge the Dems had, the Dems got their clocks cleaned both times.



How does Obama go from being up 7 to down 2, in the poll cited in the article I linked?

Furthermore, your claim about Virgil Goode is also shaky. Third-party candidates tend to hurt incumbents, not challengers.

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Straw Man
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« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2012, 10:03:21 AM »

You're one to talk. You'd better invest in a whole lot of Kleenex, just to be safe.

Furthermore, the Wisconsin recall was in 2012. And, I know Obama didn't go to Wisconsin, another broken promise as he claimed he'd put on his comfortable shoes and march with the union folks there.

As usual, Obama is playing the role of coward, not wanting to be associated with another Barret less.

How does Obama go from being up 9 to down 2, in the poll cited in the article I linked?

Furthermore, your claim about Virgil Goode is also shaky. Third-party candidates tend to hurt incumbents, not challengers.
i really don't care either way at this point

if Romney wins he says he will cut my taxes and other than that I can sit back and watch the train wreck that is always the result of Republican policies.   

I have to admit it will also be fun to watch Romeny flip flop all over the place on his various promises and "Day 1" should be interesting too

Even more fun though will be watching you eat crow on this message board as you have to admit all your posts were so wrong


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« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2012, 10:07:52 AM »

Obama didn't go to Wisconsin because he knew it was a loser and didn't want that loss tied around his neck.  The GOP has volunteers from other states on the ground in Ohio working the phones and going door to door.   The GOP doesn't have to pay people $11 an hour to appear at a rally or go door to door....that in and of itself is an edge.

GOTV has been a strength of the Republican party in most every election except for 2008....with a quality candidate and a hyper-motivated base...It will be again in 2012.
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