Gallup: Obama's Early Vote Advantage Collapses 22-Points Over 2008

[Soul Crusher]

Gallup: Obama's Early Vote Advantage Collapses 22-Points Over 2008
 
by John Nolte

30 Oct 2012

 

My pal Guy Benson found a juicy nugget that helps to bring more clarity to the news from Gallup yesterday that shows Romney leading Obama in the early vote by a full seven points, 52-45%. Almost exactly four years ago (October 28, 2008),  according to Gallup, Obama was massacring John McCain among early voters with a fifteen-point lead, 55-40%. That means, at least according to Gallup, that Obama's early vote advantage has dropped 22 points when compared to '08.

Benson also notes that the percentage of voters who have or intend to vote early was 33% in 2008 and remains at 33% today. As Don Surber said in this tweet, "People don't wait in line to vote for the status quo[.]"
 
In his email to me, Benson makes The Point: "Obama had a 55/40 lead on McCain with early voters in '08, but only led by 3 pts with the election day crowd.  He ended up winning by 7 overall."
 
In other words, among those who actually voted on Election Day, Obama's advantage over McCain was only three-points. Obama won by seven overall because of the early vote margins he had accumulated. If Gallup is correct about 2012 and Romney being ahead by seven with early voters, that means Obama's in very deep trouble. Even polls that show Obama with a small lead in states like Ohio confirm Romney will win among those who vote on Election Day.

Like me, Benson is skeptical of Gallup because, like its daily tracker that gives Romney a five point lead over Obama nationally, this early voting poll defies the CorruptMedia's conventional wisdom. But there are a few things you have to keep in mind.

1. Gallup is the most respected pollster in the country. Period.

2. As I mentioned in my post yesterday, the CorruptMedia is using CorruptMedia polls to feed the Narrative that says Obama is beating Romney in early voting. Actual vote counts in all-important swing states reported by some media outlets show that's not the case. This includes Florida, Ohio, and Colorado.
 
3. According to this report, Romney is ahead in early voting in Pennsylvania. Yes, Pennsylvania -- a state that with plenty of time to go before Election Day is looking more and more like it's in play. Biden is headed there this week and a Romney super PAC just invested $2 million in a massive ad buy.

4. Gallup's 2008 survey of early voters interviewed only 1,010 registered voters. Yesterday's early voter poll interviewed over 3,300 -- which makes the 2012 poll even more accurate.

5. "CorruptMedia" is the kindest term I can come up with to describe a pack of degenerate liars who would sell their grandmothers to win Obama a second term.
 
 
 
The CorruptMedia will ignore or dismiss this poll, but it's a serious poll from a serious pollster using a serious sample size.

[MCWAY]

IF this is true, stick the fork in Obama; he's done!

[Straw Man]

IF this is true, stick the fork in Obama; he's done!

aren't you the same guy that has said multiple times that early voting doesn't matter and is not indicative of anything ?

[MCWAY]

aren't you the same guy that has said multiple times that early voting doesn't matter and is not indicative of anything ?

What I said was that the Dems have had early voting advantages before but got SMOKED (see 2010 midterms and 2012 Wisconsin recall race)!!

So, if they got smoked with early voting advantages, how are the Dems going to fare WITHOUT it?

The Obama campaign pointed to that, as their strength, as the key to their winning this race. Now, that's GONE!!!

Where is Obama going to rally? If the Republicans match the Dems' early voting and their precious ground game, what else does Obama have left?

[Soul Crusher]

aren't you the same guy that has said multiple times that early voting doesn't matter and is not indicative of anything ?

Obama biggest problem is enthusiasm gap.  

In NYC, there was and is literally nothing for obama.  No signs, no bumper stickers,ZILCH  

In the suburbs that went big for him in 2008 - NOTHING  All the big lib areas w wealthy lib jews - NOTHING  


People don't give a fuck about obama any more other than getting him out of office.    

[Straw Man]

What I said was that the Dems have had early voting advantages before but got SMOKED (see 2010 midterms and 2012 Wisconsin recall race)!!

So, if they got smoked with early voting advantages, how are the Dems going to fare WITHOUT it?

The Obama campaign pointed to that, as their strength, as the key to their winning this race. Now, that's GONE!!!

Where is Obama going to rally? If the Republicans match the Dems' early voting and their precious ground game, what else does Obama have left?

so early voting is only irrelevent when it Dems who are voting early
is that your point ?

Don't you usually base that assumption on 2010 or Wisconsin or someting else

how about int 2008

Didn't Dems do some early voting then too ?

[MCWAY]

so early voting is only irrelevent when it Dems who are voting early
is that your point ?

Don't you usually base that assumption on 2010 or Wisconsin or someting else

how about int 2008

Didn't Dems do some early voting then too ?

My point, which you've missed apparently, is that early voting is not necessarily a sign of a Democratic victory. But, when the Dems are harping on that as its biggest (or among its biggest strengths) and the GOP has them beat there....WHAT ELSE DO THEY HAVE?

Romney's up in early voting, up BIG with independents, up BIG with white voters (especially men), and basically tied with women.

Team Obama's running out of tricks here.

Bain-Gate didnt work
Dog-Gate didn't work
War-on-Women didn't work
Cancer-Gate didn't work
Allred's October surprise didn't work
The "47%" thing didn't work
Tax-Gate didn't work
Chucking-Granny-off-the-cliff didn't work

And, that's just to name a few.

It appears Obama's WHOLE CAMPAIGN hinged on the "Kill Romney" strategy, rather than defining what would comprise his second term. As Charles Krauthammer said, Romney burned up hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Obama's negative ads in a matter of minutes in the first debate.

Obama has been reeling ever since then and, unless he can generate some magic in a week, it could be all over but the crying.

[Soul Crusher]

Obama was stupid in wasting all that money so early on with all that crap and actually unified the GOP behind Mittens w his campaign of sludge.   250 million right down the toilet. 

[Straw Man]

My point, which you've missed apparently, is that early voting is not necessarily a sign of a Democratic victory. But, when the Dems are harping on that as its biggest (or among its biggest strengths) and the GOP has them beat there....WHAT ELSE DO THEY HAVE?

Romney's up in early voting, up BIG with independents, up BIG with white voters (especially men), and basically tied with women.

Team Obama's running out of tricks here.

Bain-Gate didnt work
Dog-Gate didn't work
War-on-Women didn't work
Cancer-Gate didn't work
Allred's October surprise didn't work
The "47%" thing didn't work
Tax-Gate didn't work
Chucking-Granny-off-the-cliff didn't work

And, that's just to name a few.

It appears Obama's WHOLE CAMPAIGN hinged on the "Kill Romney" strategy, rather than defining what would comprise his second term. As Charles Krauthammer said, Romney burned up hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Obama's negative ads in a matter of minutes in the first debate.

Obama has been reeling ever since then and, unless he can generate some magic in a week, it could be all over but the crying.

dont' worry - I got your point

when early voting is in favor of the Dems it's "not necessarily" a sign of a Dem victory and really totally meaningless

As I've stated elsewhere, early voting is NO indicator of outcome. If you doubt me, check the 2010 midterms. The Dems has an early voting edge then. We all saw the final results.

The Dems also had a HUGE edge in the early voting, during the Wisconsin recall. The pitiful look on Ed Schultz's face, about 45 minutes after the polls closed, told you just how effective that was.

but when early voting favors the Repubs it's game over....right ?

IF this is true, stick the fork in Obama; he's done!

[MCWAY]

dont' worry - I got your point

when early voting is in favor of the Dems it's "not necessarily" a sign of a Dem victory and really totally meaningless

but when early voting favors the Repubs it's game over....right ?

Boy, the simplest of concepts goes RIGHT OVER YOUR HEAD. The Dems may or may not win with early voting; but they WILL NOT WIN WITHOUT IT.

What part of that is so hard for you to grasp? The Dems claim that early voting is their strength. If that strength is GONE, what's left for them?

http://thehill.com/video/campaign/264475-axelrod-downplays-polls-touts-obama-edge-among-early-voters

Funny how you have yet to answer that simple question.

[Straw Man]

Boy, the simplest of concepts goes RIGHT OVER YOUR HEAD. The Dems may or may not win with early voting; but they WILL NOT WIN WITHOUT IT.
What part of that is so hard for you to grasp? The Dems claim that early voting is their strength. If that strength is GONE, what's left for them?

Funny how you have yet to answer that simple question.

so early voting isn't not necessarily a sign of a Democratic victory yet they CAN NOT WIN WITHOUTH IT ?

that's a new one from you

[Soul Crusher]

Obama is down 250,000 votes in Ohio from 2008 alone right now.   GOP is so fired up right now i really don't see how this does not turn into a Scott Walker re-call election all over where the polls under sampled GOP enthusiam and GOTV

[MCWAY]

so early voting isn't not necessarily a sign of a Democratic victory yet they CAN NOT WIN WITHOUTH IT ?

that's a new one from you

That's hardly new. It's consistent with what I've said from the start. The Dems can have that edge BUT STILL GET BEAT. It's happened twice in the last two years. What part of that don't you understand?

But, if they are WITHOUT one of their biggest weapons, what do they have left to pull off the victory?

Try answering that, for once. You've only been asked three times now.

[Straw Man]

That's hardly new. It's consistent with what I've said from the start. The Dems can have that edge BUT STILL GET BEAT. It's happened twice in the last two years. What part of that don't you understand?

But, if they are WITHOUT one of their biggest weapons, what do they have left to pull off the victory?
Try answering that, for once. You've only been asked three times now.

hmmmm, maybe that is why Ohio tried to limit early voting

voter suppression much ..... no they would never do that

btw - I've never seen you rant about how Dems CAN'T WIN  without early voting

All of your posts that I've read were consistent in saying how early voting does not necessarily indicate a victory and now all of a sudden you're saying they cant win without it ?

[blacken700]

welcome to the mcspin  he's the hannity of getbig,hence the name mchannity.the guy will never admit he's wrong,he'll just spin and spin,hey, but what can you expect his news sources are rush and hannity 

[MCWAY]

Ol' ID Crisis boy is back, in full buffoonery mode. It appears that neither you nor Straw can grasp the concept of the Dems losing, despite throwing their best punch. Early voting is that punch. If they've lost before, despite having that edge, what are the odds of them losing WITHOUT that edge, as this poll has indicated?

Of course, in true jock-riding fashion, you've scrounged around looking for any poll to suggest that the Dems aren't really in hot water.

[blacken700]

  your poll is right and the others are wrong,just what you would expect from mchannity    mcspin away

[Straw Man]

That's hardly new. It's consistent with what I've said from the start. The Dems can have that edge BUT STILL GET BEAT. It's happened twice in the last two years. What part of that don't you understand?

But, if they are WITHOUT one of their biggest weapons, what do they have left to pull off the victory?

Try answering that, for once. You've only been asked three times now.

I've never seen you mention that Dems can only win IF they have early voting lead

I've only seen you say that early voting didn't matter when Dems were ahead but somehow a death blow if Repubs have a lead in early voting

Since you believe now that early voting turnout is crucial to a Dem victory it gives credence to the claim of voter suppression in Ohio.

[MCWAY]

I've never seen you mention that Dems can only win IF they have early voting lead

Your never seeing it doesn't equate to my never having said it.

I've only seen you say that early voting didn't matter when Dems were ahead but somehow a death blow if Repubs have a lead in early voting

Since you believe now that early voting turnout is crucial to a Dem victory it gives credence to the claim of voter suppression in Ohio.

How do you figure that?

Who's putting up barriers, dogs, or barbed wire, keeping Democrats from voting?

And, even IF they can't vote now, what's stopping them from voting next week?

As I've been saying, the Dems claim that early voting is their strong point, their key to victory.

If that is GONE, then they're pretty much toast, especially if the Republicans beat them generating turnout on the 6th.

Again, you don't seem to grasp the simple concept that you can hit your opponent with your best shot but still get beat. Yet, if you don't do such, you have almost no chance of winning.

So, as I've asked YOU multiple times, what do the Dems have left?

[POB]

welcome to the mcspin  he's the hannity of getbig,hence the name mchannity.the guy will never admit he's wrong,he'll just spin and spin,hey, but what can you expect his news sources are rush and hannity 

Your given the guy to much credit he prob got semi erect being called hannity 

I always thought mcway was like a mcdouble you order off the $.99 menu, I mean its cheap, taste bad, and you feel sick after the experience

[MCWAY]

Your given the guy to much credit he prob got semi erect being called hannity  

I always thought mcway was like a mcdouble you order off the $.99 menu, I mean its cheap, taste bad, and you feel sick after the experience

Unlike you, Blacken, Chris Matthews, and the rest of the Obama kneepadders, the politicians and pundits that give me thrills up my leg are female.  

[Soul Crusher]

GOP even leads in the generic poll.

[Straw Man]

another hoot

[Fury]

All these thread necroing is as sad as StrawAnus's stalker obsession with 333.

[Straw Man]

All these thread necroing is as sad as StrawAnus's stalker obsession with 333.

Hey Fairy - don't be a jealous pansy

why don't you go write 333 a love poem