Bottom line is that the President is consistently over performing 2008 and the Republicans and the news is good from all states but CO where we are still behind. In all cases it is the break of the independents that is going to decide each state. If the 2:1 figure is reliable then we are substantially ahead in all of these swing states.
The only asterisk is that Romney is also outperforming McCain's 2008 numbers but the question remains are these new voters for the Republicans or, as most empirical evidence suggests, they are just getting election day voters to vote early.
North Carolina
The President continues to lead Romney by about 130,000 likely votes and there is more evidence that the President is adding voters while Romney is moving voters from election day to early vote.
from MattTx at DailyKos
http://matttx.dailykos.com/ First of all, we have some new unconfirmed but strong evidence that Obama may be doing what he needs to do to turn out sporadic and unlikely voters, whereas many of the Romney voters may be people that we knew would vote anyway, but who are just doing so a little bit earlier. This is of crucial importance, because if in fact Romney's higher early vote totals are coming from likely voters who would otherwise vote on election day, and if Obama is turning out unlikely and sporadic voters, then President Obama really is in a very good position to win North Carolina.
Are we going to win NC? No one knows. The numbers look good but still close. What we do know is that the numbers in the two diaries above are the most empirically reliable numbers in hand and they show a slight advantage to the President. The key is that these ridiculous polls from Gravis and others that have moved Silver to cast NC as a 80% lock by Romney are not based in reality.
Nevada
38% of all voters have voted.
Dems 45%
Reps 37%
Ind 18%
Also on the Nevada ballot is "None of the Above" which is never included on any pollsters question, but is a Nevada tradition. Any Ron Paul supporters (and in NV they are very well organized) that want to make a point for 2016 can do so by voting NOTA.
http://nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2500 Colorado
Gaining but still behind
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/29/1152307/-Latest-CO-Early-Mail-In-Vote-D-s-pick-up-1 To date, 804,000 ballots were cast. Here are the party affiliations of those voters:
- 38 percent Republicans
- 36 percent Democrats
- 26 percent Unaffiliated/third party
This represents a 2-point turnout lead for the GOP in Colorado. Last week's report showed a 3-point advantage.
Florida
In Florida the Democratic Early voters have wiped out the normally formidable absentee advantage of the Republican voters. The number of Dem/Rep absentee ballots that are requested but not yet received, about even with a slight Democratic advantage. This represents a substantial improvement over 2008.
http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/10/with-22m-floridians-having-voted-a-quarter-of-electorate-dems-lead-reps-by-more-than-31000-ballots.html The early vote numbers:
Party EV Total %
DEM 391,238 48%
REP 290,368 36%
IND 133,698 16%
TOTAL 815,304
The absentee numbers:
Party AB Total %
REP 634,814 44%
DEM 574,122 40%
IND 240,563 17%
TOTAL 1,450,814
The totals
Party EV/AB %
DEM 965,360 43%
REP 925,182 41%
IND 374,261 17%
Iowa
From FightingRegistrar at DailyKos
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/29/1151918/-Nevada-Early-Voting-Update-10-29-12 Democrats crushed Republicans for the fourth straight day in ballot requests. Indies had another strong day for ballot requests. The percentage of Republican ballot requests dropped one hundredth of one percent. I love it when that happens.
And now, here are the numbers for actual ballots cast:
Dems 219,778 (44.16%)
Reps 159,866 (32.12%)
Inds 117,485 (23.60%)
Oth 596 (negligible)
TOTAL 497,725
