Which is what Nate Silver certainly takes into account. His model is dead on accurate and contains all data. I feel bad for Republicans who are not aware of all the data out there. I don`t know if they are just unaware, if they willingly keep themselves from the data or if the people they listen to shelter them from it.
Mitt Romney has about a 20 percent chance of winning when all models are run. 20 percent is not that great.
I feel bad for Democrats, who think these oversampled polls (used by Silver and others), mean Obama has this wrapped up. They keep assuming that they will replicate the turnout from 2008, despite all the signs that say that such ain't happening. In fact, they'd have to EXCEED that turnout for Obama to win by the margin that some of these polls have. GOOD LUCK!!
Fewer voters this year say they are thinking about election, will definitely voteby Jeffrey M. Jones PRINCETON, NJ -- Key Gallup indicators of voter turnout, collected prior to superstorm Sandy, suggest voter turnout will fall short of what it was in 2004 and 2008. U.S. registered voters report giving less thought to the election, and are less likely to rate their chance of voting as a "10" on a 10-point scale, than in 2004 and 2008, two higher-turnout elections. However, the 2012 figures are higher than in 1996 and 2000, two lower-turnout elections.
The questions are two of the seven that factor into Gallup's likely voter model. The model assesses individual respondents' likelihood of voting by asking about current voting intentions and past voting behavior. "Election thought" and the 10-point "likelihood of voting scale" are the two questions that focus on current voting intentions and show the most variation from election to election.
As the above chart indicates, in years like 1992, 2004, and 2008 when turnout was greater, more registered voters have tended to say they are giving at least some thought to the election, and to rate their likelihood of voting as high as possible. The percentages on these questions were lower in both 1996 and 2000, when proportionately fewer Americans voted.
Thus, the current data suggest turnout could fall in between the lower levels of 1996 and 2000 and the higher levels of 2004 and 2008.
The current results are based on Gallup Daily election tracking from Oct. 15-28. Voters' thought given to the election and voting intentions often increase closer to Election Day. However, superstorm Sandy has overtaken the election campaign as the dominant news event in recent days, which could in turn affect voters' attention to the campaign and voting intentions.......http://www.gallup.com/poll/158435/voter-turnout-likely-fall-short-2004-2008.aspxRomney is beating Obama soundly with independents, with men, and has closed the gap with female voters (last national poll I saw had them about tied with women). And he's up on the president on what's supposed to be the Dems' big weapon: Early Voting.
But, don't take my word for it:
Colorado Republicans lead Democrats in early voting with 1.1 million ballots cast
With less than a week to go before Election Day, about 1.1 million Colorado voters have already turned in ballots, according to state election data released Wednesday.
Registered Republicans in the state were slightly ahead of Democrats in casting mail-in ballots. The statewide tally of 1,150,698 includes 439,269 Republican; 404,870 Democrats; and 295,122 independents.
The total early tab in Denver was 119,419, with 68,204 Democrats having voted, compared to 21,483 Republicans. The unaffiliated count in Denver was 28,099.
Jefferson County residents had tabulated the most early ballots statewide, with a total of 153,072. In Jefferson County, Republican voters have edged out Democrats by a count of 58,151 to 51,991;http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_21897135/colorado-republicans-lead-democrats-early-voting-1-1 And, it ain't looking too hot in Ohio, either
http://washingtonexaminer.com/crucial-early-votes-for-obama-lagging-in-ohio-stronghold/article/2512270#.UJJP0sXA_LsRegarding PA, MI, and MN, as usual, ID Crisis Boy is late to the party. I've seen Rasmussen's comments already; so this is hardly news.
The mere fact, that these states are even in play this late, shows the degree of trouble in which Obama finds himself (notwithstanding the fact that Romney doesn't need any of these states to win). Obama should have nailed these states shut MONTHS AGO.
Obama's plunge in the EC maps (even on the uber-left Huffington post, which has him at 259 now, when he was well over 300 just a month ago) pretty much tells the story.
Throw in Gallup that has Romney at 50% or higher, since mid-October (every challenger that has hit that mark has won), and you hardly have a scenario in which Romney as a mere 20% of winning.
