Princeton Electoral Consortium gives Obama a 97.6% chance of being reelected

[The True Adonis]

Their predictions have been off by a total of one EC vote in the last two elections


http://election.princeton.edu/

[timfogarty]

FiveThirtyEight gives Obama an 85% chance

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

politico has Obama winning http://www.politico.com/2012-election/swing-state/

Huffington Post http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

find your own path

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html

[lovemonkey]

Well, that's four more years of Pi ranting on these boards.

[bike nut]

 Truth is, nobody knows what will happen on Election Day. But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.

Don't buy into the hype - Republican voters are turning out in droves, Romney wins this in a cake walk.

[240 is Back]

yeah i still think i'd bet on romney to take the win. 

[SF1900]

The way Romney is talking, I am expecting some significant changes. He is making it seem like unemployment will be 0%. I hope he knows what he is doing because he has a lot of talk to back up.

[Archer77]

Truth is, nobody knows what will happen on Election Day. But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.

Don't buy into the hype - Republican voters are turning out in droves, Romney wins this in a cake walk.

If Obama wins are you going to accept the results or scream conspiracy for the next four years?

[che]

Truth is, nobody knows what will happen on Election Day. But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.

Don't buy into the hype - Republican voters are turning out in droves, Romney wins this in a cake walk.

http://www.kctv5.com/story/19992404/obama-seems-to-have-early-voter-lead-in-key-states

[bike nut]

If Obama wins are you going to accept the results or scream conspiracy for the next four years?

Accept the results.....that doesn't make an obama supporter any less stupid.

[240 is Back]

http://www.kctv5.com/story/19992404/obama-seems-to-have-early-voter-lead-in-key-states

I base my assessment more on a gut feeling, rather than actual stats.

[Hulkotron]

I base my assessment more on a gut feeling, rather than actual stats.

What have your prayers told you about the likely outcome 240?

[bike nut]

http://www.kctv5.com/story/19992404/obama-seems-to-have-early-voter-lead-in-key-states

Makes my point exactly....obama underperforming compared to 08 and Romney way over performing McCain from 08.

[The True Adonis]

Makes my point exactly....obama underperforming compared to 08 and Romney way over performing McCain from 08.

Whats the point of that assessment if its not good enough to win?


Example: Obama gets 2 million votes in 2008.  In 2012 Obama gets 1.5 million votes.   McCain gets 800,000 votes in 2008.  Romney gets 1 million votes in 2012.

See how pointless your contention is?

[240 is Back]

I think we're overdue for one of those quirky historical outcomes... dewey defeats truman, etc.

I know a lot of people who couldn't stop talking about obama in 2012.  They're not talking politics at all in 2012.  I don't think they'll show up.  I know all the stats institutions are giving it to obama, and i know the repubs are hedging their bets, BUT i see the gamblers of the world on intrade... only 2/3 of them believe obama will win.

I put a lot of stock in firms willing to put $ where their mouths are.... and in a 'tie', i give it to the challenger.

[Roger Bacon]

I think we're overdue for one of those quirky historical outcomes... dewey defeats truman, etc.

I know a lot of people who couldn't stop talking about obama in 2012.  They're not talking politics at all in 2012.  I don't think they'll show up.  I know all the stats institutions are giving it to obama, and i know the repubs are hedging their bets, BUT i see the gamblers of the world on intrade... only 2/3 of them believe obama will win.

I put a lot of stock in firms willing to put $ where their mouths are.... and in a 'tie', i give it to the challenger.

I can't for the life of me imagine how Obama can win. 

He was elected by people like me who wouldn't have voted for him under other circumstances, and won't vote for him again.

[240 is Back]

I can't for the life of me imagine how Obama can win. 

He was elected by people like me who wouldn't have voted for him under other circumstances, and won't vote for him again.

the path to a Romney win is a very very narrow one - but it can happen.  He may need some surprises... obama voters not showing up in some states thought to be automatic wins.  Romney winning would be on the of the biggest stories of the year.  But it could happen. 

I wouldn't bet on this election... I mean, the major institutions think Obama will win, and he probably will.  BUT I can't help but think about the enthusiasm gap.  ROmney is an average to sub-par candidate with so much baggage.... that 47% video should have sunk him for 10 reasons... but during the debates, swing voters saw an ACCEPTABLE alternative to obama.   He's the rebound bang.  He'll do.  Good enough for now.   Nobody is going to claim Romney is the next reagan... Romney is a two-faced phony willing to  change positions based upon whoever is in the room...

but he's not obama... and i think that's why he has a good chance on tuesday.

[SF1900]

I can't for the life of me imagine how Obama can win. 

He was elected by people like me who wouldn't have voted for him under other circumstances, and won't vote for him again.

You voted for Obama, huh? I bet you want him to pay your mortgage! 

[Roger Bacon]

You voted for Obama, huh? I bet you want him to pay your mortgage!  

The fact that he was a constitutional law professor looked good, he claimed he would scrap the Patriot Act.  Cut the budget, end the wars etc...  After the Bush regime, this looked promising.  Especially in comparison to McCain/Palin.

[Roger Bacon]

the path to a Romney win is a very very narrow one - but it can happen.  He may need some surprises... obama voters not showing up in some states thought to be automatic wins.  Romney winning would be on the of the biggest stories of the year.  But it could happen. 

I wouldn't bet on this election... I mean, the major institutions think Obama will win, and he probably will.  BUT I can't help but think about the enthusiasm gap.  ROmney is an average to sub-par candidate with so much baggage.... that 47% video should have sunk him for 10 reasons... but during the debates, swing voters saw an ACCEPTABLE alternative to obama.   He's the rebound bang.  He'll do.  Good enough for now.   Nobody is going to claim Romney is the next reagan... Romney is a two-faced phony willing to  change positions based upon whoever is in the room...

but he's not obama... and i think that's why he has a good chance on tuesday.

At the very least, we're getting some good reality entertainment out of all this. 

[Hulkotron]

I actually liked McCain well enough but I was horrified of Palin having a position of power in my nation's governance.

I didn't vote in 2008 because I lived in Massachusetts so even if I wanted to vote for McCain (probably wouldn't have) it wouldn't have made any difference.

[240 is Back]

At the very least, we're getting some good reality entertainment out of all this.  

and the outcome isn't going to be that different.   Romney played ball with a dem legislative team in Mass... he'll do the same in DC.  Repubs are going to be hating his liberal ass once he's in office - he's going to govern VERY moderate.  His record is very very clear here.  He said what he needed to, in order to win, but the man is a lifetime moderate.  nobody denies that.  He memorized enough phrases to sucker an outstandingly stupid tea party voting block into choosing him over huntsman or Pawlenty or Bachmann.  

Romney will probably win another term, too, cause Dems won't mind him and repubs no longer have the convention infrastructure to upheave his ass in 2016 for a Rubio.  You fcksticks wanted romney, you got him... it'll be Obama II for another 8 years.  Obamacare upheld by SCOTUS and romney doesn't even talk about it.  That nonsense budget will never get thru.  Nothing is going to change under romney, just a nice confidence boost in arm, and everyone gets their "obama lost, go back to kenya' celebration before Romney continues Obama/Bush foreign and economic policy to a tee.

[Roger Bacon]

and the outcome isn't going to be that different.   Romney played ball with a dem legislative team in Mass... he'll do the same in DC.  Repubs are going to be hating his liberal ass once he's in office - he's going to govern VERY moderate.  His record is very very clear here.  He said what he needed to, in order to win, but the man is a lifetime moderate.  nobody denies that.  He memorized enough phrases to sucker an outstandingly stupid tea party voting block into choosing him over huntsman or Pawlenty or Bachmann.  

Romney will probably win another term, too, cause Dems won't mind him and repubs no longer have the convention infrastructure to upheave his ass in 2016 for a Rubio.  You fcksticks wanted romney, you got him... it'll be Obama II for another 8 years.  Obamacare upheld by SCOTUS and romney doesn't even talk about it.  That nonsense budget will never get thru.  Nothing is going to change under romney, just a nice confidence boost in arm, and everyone gets their "obama lost, go back to kenya' celebration before Romney continues Obama/Bush foreign and economic policy to a tee.

You said it,

Watching these Obama lunatics going into morning is enough for me. 

[whork]

The fact that he was a constitutional law professor looked good, he claimed he would scrap the Patriot Act.  Cut the budget, end the wars etc...  After the Bush regime, this looked promising.  Especially in comparison to McCain/Palin.

So you vote Romney who is more pro-war and pro-spending?

[240 is Back]

So you vote Romney who is more pro-war and pro-spending?

romney just repeats what his neocon staff tell him to say.   He'll probably start a war with iran, but obama probably would have done the same thing in the next 4 years anyway. 

romney and obama are both pro-spending.  They want to do it in slightly different ways, but we all know romney was a big govt "repub" and will do the same.  Ron paul is the only guy that would have cut spending in any meaningful manner, we know this. 

Repubs voted for Obama Lite.  They got him.  If he wins, prepare for moderate rule, which is pretty much what obama did.  SS won't be privatized.  Obamacare isn't going anywhere, we know this too, unforuntaley, since SCOTUS upheld it.

[whork]

Romney is a much bigger spender than Obama

Wars is expensive

And tax breaks too