Ohio shocker: GOP closes early voting gap, boosting Romney

[MCWAY]

The date it a typo. It should be Nov. 4.

But it's more detail about the Ohio numbers I posted yesterday.

Ohio shocker: GOP closes early voting gap, boosting Romney


In a remarkable reversal of fortune for President Obama in Ohio, the GOP has closed the huge gap in absentee ballot requests used by early voters that favored the Democrats and the president in 2008, setting up what one state analyst said could be a Mitt Romney blowout on Election Day.

While in 2008, 33 percent of the 1,158,301 absentee ballots went to Democrats and just 19 percent to registered Republicans, a 14-point gap, this year 29 percent are being requested by Democrats and 24 percent by Republicans, a five-point gap.

And in a sign that the enthusiasm of 2008 voters is depressed, just 638,997 absentee ballots have been requested, according to American Majority Action, which culled the statistics together from Ohio college professors who are tracking the state's absentee ballots used for early voting. The group provided Secrets with the details.

Even more dramatic, while the GOP has cut the Democratic advantage in early voting throughout the state, the changes favoring the Republicans in certain counties has been huge. In Franklin County, home to Columbus, for example, a 2008 Democratic advantage of 5 percent is now a 5 percent GOP advantage. In Cuyahoga County, home to Democratic Cleveland, the GOP has shaved six points off the Democrat's 2008 advantage. And in Hamilton County, home to Cincinnati, Republicans have expanded their 2008 advantage to 13 percent.

University of Dayton Professor Larry Schweikart told American Majority Action President Ned Ryun that the GOP gains favor Romney. "Although it is early, we will soon be at a point where--assuming Republicans vote for Romney--the Democrats will have to overwhelmingly win all the remaining early voting just to be even on November 6. But, given Ohio's voting history, if the numbers are even close after early voting, Obama will lose, and possibly lose big."

Ryun, whose group has opened voter registration efforts in Ohio and other swing states, said that the Buckeye State's efforts to clean up voter rolls has also played a part in tightening the gap. He said that 450,000 dead voters and duplicate registrations have been nixed, and the majority were Democrats.

"Considering Obama won the state by 263,000 votes, Ohio's cleaner rolls could make a big impact," Ryun said. He added, "The five largest counties in Ohio have all shifted at least 6 percent and as much as 27 percent to the Republicans since 2008. While the polls show an Obama lead, these real votes--assuming registered voters vote for their candidate--demonstrate a Republican shift since 2008."

Ryun sent this to Secrets from his analysis of Ohio early voting:

In 2008, there were 1,158,301 total absentee ballots requested, 33 percent registered Democrat and 19 percent registered Republican--a 14 point gap. So far in 2012, 638,997 ballots have been requested, 29 percent Democrat and 24 percent Republican--only a five point gap.

The Republicans have shrunk the gap nine percent overall since 2008, but when we examine key counties in Ohio, the numbers become even more dramatic.

--Champaign County: Was +3% GOP, now +23% GOP - 20 point shift.

--Columbiana County: Was +9% DEM, now +9% GOP - 18 point shift.

--Crawford County: Was +3% DEM, now +12% GOP - 15 point shift.

--Cuyahoga County: Was +36% DEM, now +30% DEM (GOP already has 6,000 more requests than in 2008) - 6 point shift.

--Erie County: Was +24% DEM, now +7% DEM -17 point shift.

--Franklin County: Was +5% DEM, now +5% GOP - 10 point shift.

--Greene County: Was +4% DEM, now +19% GOP - 23 point shift.

--Harrison County: Was +22% DEM, now +5% DEM - 17 point shift.

--Hamilton County: Was +7% GOP, now +13% GOP - 6 point shift.

--Licking County: Was TIED, now +16% GOP - 16 point shift.

--Montgomery County: Was +29% DEM, now +5% DEM - 24 point shift.

--Muskingum County: Was +1% DEM, now +16% GOP - 17 point shift.

--Pickaway County: Was +12% DEM, now +15% GOP - 27 point shift.

--Seneca County: Was +1% DEM, now +13% GOP - 14 point shift.

--Summit County: Was +33% DEM, now +6 DEM - 27 point shift.

--Wood County: Was +10% DEM, now +1% GOP - 11 point shift.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/article/2509838#.UJcQ8q6gy-n

[magikusar]

awesome shit

[blacken700]

that's nice but your late to the party that was oct 4 

[240 is Back]

THis article was from October 4th.   Romney pwnt obama in the debate.

[blacken700]

i don't know why were reporting shit from amonth ago 

[The True Adonis]

ROFLMAO.

McWay is really struggling to find anything at this point.  First a football game predicting a Presidential Election, now this.

[Vince G, CSN MFT]

The date it a typo. It should be Nov. 4.

But it's more detail about the Ohio numbers I posted yesterday.

Ohio shocker: GOP closes early voting gap, boosting Romney


In a remarkable reversal of fortune for President Obama in Ohio, the GOP has closed the huge gap in absentee ballot requests used by early voters that favored the Democrats and the president in 2008, setting up what one state analyst said could be a Mitt Romney blowout on Election Day.

While in 2008, 33 percent of the 1,158,301 absentee ballots went to Democrats and just 19 percent to registered Republicans, a 14-point gap, this year 29 percent are being requested by Democrats and 24 percent by Republicans, a five-point gap.

And in a sign that the enthusiasm of 2008 voters is depressed, just 638,997 absentee ballots have been requested, according to American Majority Action, which culled the statistics together from Ohio college professors who are tracking the state's absentee ballots used for early voting. The group provided Secrets with the details.

Even more dramatic, while the GOP has cut the Democratic advantage in early voting throughout the state, the changes favoring the Republicans in certain counties has been huge. In Franklin County, home to Columbus, for example, a 2008 Democratic advantage of 5 percent is now a 5 percent GOP advantage. In Cuyahoga County, home to Democratic Cleveland, the GOP has shaved six points off the Democrat's 2008 advantage. And in Hamilton County, home to Cincinnati, Republicans have expanded their 2008 advantage to 13 percent.

University of Dayton Professor Larry Schweikart told American Majority Action President Ned Ryun that the GOP gains favor Romney. "Although it is early, we will soon be at a point where--assuming Republicans vote for Romney--the Democrats will have to overwhelmingly win all the remaining early voting just to be even on November 6. But, given Ohio's voting history, if the numbers are even close after early voting, Obama will lose, and possibly lose big."

Ryun, whose group has opened voter registration efforts in Ohio and other swing states, said that the Buckeye State's efforts to clean up voter rolls has also played a part in tightening the gap. He said that 450,000 dead voters and duplicate registrations have been nixed, and the majority were Democrats.

"Considering Obama won the state by 263,000 votes, Ohio's cleaner rolls could make a big impact," Ryun said. He added, "The five largest counties in Ohio have all shifted at least 6 percent and as much as 27 percent to the Republicans since 2008. While the polls show an Obama lead, these real votes--assuming registered voters vote for their candidate--demonstrate a Republican shift since 2008."

Ryun sent this to Secrets from his analysis of Ohio early voting:

In 2008, there were 1,158,301 total absentee ballots requested, 33 percent registered Democrat and 19 percent registered Republican--a 14 point gap. So far in 2012, 638,997 ballots have been requested, 29 percent Democrat and 24 percent Republican--only a five point gap.

The Republicans have shrunk the gap nine percent overall since 2008, but when we examine key counties in Ohio, the numbers become even more dramatic.

--Champaign County: Was +3% GOP, now +23% GOP - 20 point shift.

--Columbiana County: Was +9% DEM, now +9% GOP - 18 point shift.

--Crawford County: Was +3% DEM, now +12% GOP - 15 point shift.

--Cuyahoga County: Was +36% DEM, now +30% DEM (GOP already has 6,000 more requests than in 2008) - 6 point shift.

--Erie County: Was +24% DEM, now +7% DEM -17 point shift.

--Franklin County: Was +5% DEM, now +5% GOP - 10 point shift.

--Greene County: Was +4% DEM, now +19% GOP - 23 point shift.

--Harrison County: Was +22% DEM, now +5% DEM - 17 point shift.

--Hamilton County: Was +7% GOP, now +13% GOP - 6 point shift.

--Licking County: Was TIED, now +16% GOP - 16 point shift.

--Montgomery County: Was +29% DEM, now +5% DEM - 24 point shift.

--Muskingum County: Was +1% DEM, now +16% GOP - 17 point shift.

--Pickaway County: Was +12% DEM, now +15% GOP - 27 point shift.

--Seneca County: Was +1% DEM, now +13% GOP - 14 point shift.

--Summit County: Was +33% DEM, now +6 DEM - 27 point shift.

--Wood County: Was +10% DEM, now +1% GOP - 11 point shift.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/article/2509838#.UJcQ8q6gy-n

The Washington Examiner uses a Joomla Platform.....it posts the dates for articles automatically so there's no way there can be a typo....

[blacken700]

this is toooo funny,mchannity is wishing for anything at this point 

[MCWAY]

this is toooo funny,mchannity is wishing for anything at this point  

Try again, ID Crisis Boy. Or did you and your cohort in buffoonery, Adonis, forget what I posted just yesterday:

Karl Rove cited similar numbers, regarding Ohio. He stated on his trusty whiteboard that, as of Thursday night, there were just over a million early votes. Of those, Obama had about 547,000; Romney had 470,000.

To put that in perspective that's 165,000 FEWER voters than Obama had against McCain; whereas Romney had over 98,000 more than McCain did four years ago.

The difference between Obama's losses and Romney's gains over McCain is 265,000 votes; recall that Obama won Ohio by 262,000 votes.

The actual tallies, thus far, seem to reflect what Pew and Gallup have been saying for a week (despite the left's dismissal of their findings): Obama's early vote edge is all but GONE. The narrative is that, if Romney stays close or beats Obama in early votes, he can close the deal on election day, particularly in Ohio.

If Romney gets Colorado and Ohio (and the 30,000+ rally last night is good news for him), that, coupled with Romney sweeping the southeast, gets him the White House at 275 EC votes.






BTW, the numbers have been updated. As of tonight, it's the GOP up 108,000 from their 2008 tally in Ohio's early voting; meanwhile the Dems are down 155,000 from tonight's total.

But, don't take my word for it:

http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/fox-news-sunday-chris-wallace/2012/11/04/david-axelrod-and-rick-beeson-talk-last-minute-campaign-strategy

And I posted the early voting numbers from Politico earlier today.

[blacken700]

why are you claiming the article was from today mchannity   your ttoooooo much 

[MCWAY]

why are you claiming the article was from today mchannity   your ttoooooo much  

Try addressing the actual numbers, regarding the early voting (which was supposed to be Obama's big strength).


But, just to show that, unlike you, I don't duck questions, the reason I said that was due to the breakdown of counties and the swings between 2008 and now. They looked similar to actual numbers I saw earlier today. So, I thought it was a typo.

The actual numbers are just as bad, if not worse, for Obama.

[blacken700]

no i'm addressing the lie on the date    mcromney

[MCWAY]

no i'm addressing the lie on the date    mcromney

I answered that Einstein. The numbers looked similar; so I thought it was a typo.

NOW, cowardly one, TRY ADDRESSING the actual numbers and why Obama is down.

[blacken700]

yeah ooook you tried to fox news us 

[MCWAY]

yeah ooook you tried to fox news us  

Address the numbers, O cowardly one. Or is all your flap reduced to making stupid misspelled statements and smileys.

But, since reading isn't exactly fundamental to you, ID Crisis Boy:

[ Invalid YouTube link ]

[blacken700]

like i'm going to watch something from the romney camp or believe shit from rove,let us know when you get more misinformation,nice try with the date   

[MCWAY]

like i'm going to watch something from the romney camp or believe shit from rove,let us know when you get more misinformation,nice try with the date  

I posted earlier numbers; I've posted more updated numbers. They're here for all to see.

Rove has actually run a successful re-election campaign. Gee, why wouldn't anyone listen to him?  

Once again your cowardice and buffoonery are on display for all to see. What's laughable is you actually think typing like a dyslexic third grader and posting smileys ad nauseum count as a coherent thought.

All you have to do is cite the numbers to counter this. Go for it, if you can.

[blacken700]

I posted earlier numbers; I've posted more updated numbers. They're here for all to see.

Rove has actually run a successful re-election campaign. Gee, why wouldn't anyone listen to him?  

Once again your cowardice and buffoonery are on display for all to see. What's laughable is you actually think typing like a dyslexic third grader and posting smileys ad nauseum count as a coherent thought.

All you have to do is cite the numbers to counter this. Go for it, if you can.

don't be angry at me because you posted a bullshit date and got caught hahahahhahaa fox news reject

[MCWAY]

don't be angry at me because you posted a bullshit date and got caught hahahahhahaa fox news reject

You read emotions about as well as you spell.

 

I didn't get "caught", because I wasn't attempting to hide anything.

The clock's ticking, cowardly one. Try addressing the numbers.

[Coach is Back!]

Marky words. Obama by a slim.margin or Romney in a landslide. I've been saying it for months.

[avxo]

Marky words. Obama by a slim.margin or Romney in a landslide. I've been saying it for months.

Mark what words?

You just predicted all possible outcomes, considering that "Obama by a landslide" isn't possible and "Romney by a slim margin" doesn't seem likely at all given electoral college math. In other words, you basically answered the question: "What's the weather going to be like tomorrow in Northern California?" with "It will either rain lightly or the skies will be clear and the sun will shine."

[Roger Bacon]

Mark what words?

You just predicted all possible outcomes, considering that "Obama by a landslide" isn't possible and "Romney by a slim margin" doesn't seem likely at all given electoral college math. In other words, you basically answered the question: "What's the weather going to be like tomorrow in Northern California?" with "It will either rain lightly or the skies will be clear and the sun will shine."

hahahahahah!!!

 

[The True Adonis]

Mark what words?

You just predicted all possible outcomes, considering that "Obama by a landslide" isn't possible and "Romney by a slim margin" doesn't seem likely at all given electoral college math. In other words, you basically answered the question: "What's the weather going to be like tomorrow in Northern California?" with "It will either rain lightly or the skies will be clear and the sun will shine."

In other words, Coach took a page from the Romney playbook.  

[Coach is Back!]

Mark what words?

You just predicted all possible outcomes, considering that "Obama by a landslide" isn't possible and "Romney by a slim margin" doesn't seem likely at all given electoral college math. In other woords, you basically answered the question: "What's the weather going to be like tomorrow in Northern California?" with "It will either rain lightly or the skies will be clear and the sun will shine."

RCP has Obama getting his ass handed to him in the EC. Since there is no way in hell Obama can with by a landslide its going to be close at best. Right now Romney leads by over 20% I'm the independents.

[avxo]

RCP has Obama getting his ass handed to him in the EC. Since there is no way in hell Obama can with by a landslide its going to be close at best. Right now Romney leads by over 20% I'm the independents.

My point was that your "prediction" isn't really a prediction at all - you just listed the two scenarios that are overwhelmingly likely to happen, ignored the one scenario that's unlikely and the one scenario that is impossible. That's not a prediction.