Intelligence community: U.S. out as sole superpower by 2030
By BYRON TAU |
12/10/12 9:54 AM EST
A new report by the intelligence community projects that the United States will no longer be the world's only superpower by 2030.
"In terms of the indices of overall power – GDP, population size, military spending and technological investment – Asia will surpass North America and Europe combined," the report concludes.
“Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" — prepared by the office of the National Intelligence Council of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence — projects that the "unipolar" world that emerged after the fall of the Soviet Union will not continue.
"With the rapid rise of other countries, the 'unipolar moment' is over and no country – whether the U.S., China, or any other country – will be a hegemonic power," the report argues.
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"The United States’ relative economic decline vis-a-vis the rising states is inevitable and already occurring,but its future role in the international system is much harder to assess," it argues.
"Global Trends" projects that the United States will retain a unique role in the international system — in part because of its history and past leadership.
"The U.S. most likely will remain 'first among equals' among the other great powers, due to the legacy of its leadership role in the world and the dominant role it has played in international politics across the board in both hard and soft power," it argues.
And the intelligence community does not believe the United States will be supplanted as the world's only superpower by another country.
"The replacement of the United States by another global power and erection of a new international order seems the least likely outcome in this time period," the report projects.
The report argues that rising powers like China, India and Brazil are not unified by any common ideology and are more focused on their regional role. And the report warns against the consequences of a U.S. withdrawal from the world's stage.
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"A collapse or sudden retreat of US power would most likely result in an extended period of global anarchy," it argues.
CORRECTION: An earlier version misstated whether the U.S. would be supplanted by another country as a superpowerhttp://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/12/intelligence-community-us-out-as-sole-superpower-by-151519.html
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