Jay won't beat Phil or Kai. Mark my words.
Well the odds are you are right, but keep in mind wiggs that Phil was off one year and got relegated to 5th and and Kai was off one year and got 7th. Jay has been off many times but Jay being off only drops 1 placing not 3 or 4 as was the case in both Phil and Kai.
However in Phil's defence he was off cause he got sick that year, so he is unlikely to be off unless he gets sick or has a misfortune (hopefully not). He is the most consistent when it comes to conditioning.
Kai however is not as predictable so anything can happen and let's not forget Rhoden, if he puts on 12-15 quality pounds it can be game over for everyone, at this point very unlikely but possible nonetheless.