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Author Topic: Poll: Early look at 2016 shows 5-way race for GOP nomination  (Read 785 times)
Beach Bum
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« on: April 03, 2013, 04:35:44 PM »

Way early, but I agree at this point it's about name recognition. 

Poll: Early look at 2016 shows 5-way race for GOP nomination
Posted by
CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser
 
(CNN) - With more than two and a half years to go until the start of the next primary and caucus calendar, there's no front-runner in the battle for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.

That's the finding of a new national poll by Quinnipiac University, which also indicates that by a more than two to one margin, GOP voters would prefer a nominee with experience as a governor rather than a senator.

According to the survey, 19% of Republicans and voters who lean towards the GOP say that if their party's primary for president was held today, they'd back Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, with Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, last year's Republican vice presidential nominee, at 17%, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky at 15%, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 14%, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 10%.

Among the other possible GOP White House hopefuls questioned, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal registered at 3%, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker came in at 2%, and Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell was the pick of 1% of Republican voters. Nearly one in five surveyed were unsure.

One caveat with such polling so early in a presidential campaign cycle is that they are often heavily influenced by name recognition.

"Three years before the nominating process, the Republicans have no clear favorite," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Sen. Marco Rubio benefits from his exposure giving the GOP response to the State of the Union while Congressman Paul Ryan is known as the Republican vice presidential candidate. But history tells us being the running-mate on a losing ticket does not help one's presidential chances. The last three Republicans in that spot were Sarah Palin, Jack Kemp and Dan Quayle, while the Democrats in that role were John Edwards, Joe Lieberman and Lloyd Bentsen."

While there is no front-runner, Republicans by a 59%-23% margin say they would prefer someone with experience as a governor rather than a senator as their party's nominee.

The poll also looks ahead to the 2014 midterm elections, when the GOP will try and recapture the Senate and the Democrats will attempt to re-take the House of Representatives. According to the survey, 43% of all voters questioned said that if the November 2014 elections were held today, they'd vote for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, with 35% saying they'd support the Republican candidate. The Democrats need a net-gain of 17 seats to recapture the House.

The survey indicates that Congressional Republicans have a 19%-71% approval/disapproval rating, compared to a 34%-59% rating for Democrats in Congress. And the Democratic party has a 38%-44% favorable/unfavorable rating, compared to a 28%-52% rating for the GOP.

"The Republican brand is essentially in the toilet these days, but it's worth remembering the Democrats faced a similar situation in the late 1980s and got their house in order and returned to power in short order,' added Brown.

According to the poll, more people think the Republican Party can do a better job handling the federal deficit and that the Democratic Party can do a better job handling health care, same-sex marriage and immigration, with voters divided on which party can perform better on the economy, taxes and gun control.

Four in ten said the economy and jobs was the most important issue when it comes to their vote next year for Congress, with one in five listing the budget or budget deficit, another one in five listing health care, 9% saying gun issues and 8% saying taxes.

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted March 26-April 1, with 1,711 registered voters nationwide questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error was plus or minus 2.4 percentage points, with a sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for questions only of Republicans.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/04/03/poll-early-look-at-2016-shows-5-way-race-for-gop-nomination/?hpt=po_c2
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2013, 03:45:10 PM »

2016 GOP Poll: Christie 21, Rubio 18, Jeb Bush 16, Rand Paul 15
Guy Benson | Aug 08, 2013 

For all the grief Rubio's endured from the conservative base over his flawed immigration legislation, he's still hanging on to second place in the 2016 sweepstakes -- sandwiched between two moderates.  RINOmentum?

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that Christie earns 21% support when Republican voters are asked whom they would vote for if the party’s primary in their state were held today. Florida Senator Marco Rubio runs a close second with 18% of the GOP vote, followed by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush at 16% and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul with 15% of the vote. Congressman Paul Ryan, the unsuccessful Republican vice presidential candidate in 2012, picks up 13% of the Republican vote, with Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker dead last at six percent (6%). Just three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.

Conspicuously absent from the list of options: Ted Cruz and Bobby Jindal.  I'm slightly perplexed by Scott Walker's standing in this survey, especially vis-a-vis Jeb, who hasn't held elective office since 2007.  Sure, Bush did a nice job governing a battleground state a number of years ago, but Walker's running a purple state now -- and he's been pounding the Left into submission at every turn.  He trails Christie by double digits?  Incidentally, I've heard a strong rumor that Paul Ryan -- whose numbers among national Republicans are stronger than anyone's -- is unlikely to run if Walker jumps in, and vice versa.  In any case, Christie haters (I'm not one for a number of reasons) can take solace in the fact that even though the New Jersey governor leads the pack here, he's also the candidate who receives the highest negative marks from respondents.  In other words, he's a lot of people's first choice, but he's quite a few folks' last choice, too.  Back to the Pew numbers I referenced in connection with Paul Ryan.  The House Budget Committee Chairman enjoys the best favorables by a significant margin, but even Christie's sitting pretty at +17:


 
The guy with the most upside, at least in that poll, is Cruz.  Meanwhile, PPP's latest 2016 survey, setting aside the idiotic George Zimmerman trolling (he's an Obama-supporting Democrat anyway), produced a markedly different result:


Rand Paul sits ahead of the field at 16%, his highest numbers since April, and the first time he has held sole possession of first place. Behind him are Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and Paul Ryan, all at 13%. This is a slight drop for Bush and Christie, who last month had both led with 15%. Just after that is Ted Cruz with 12%, a huge increase from 7% in May. Rounding out the frontrunners is Marco Rubio, who continues to slide in the polls, pulling in 10%. This is less than half of the 21% of the vote he received back in April.

What lessons can we derive from this jumbled, disparate data about a field that doesn't even exist yet?  Let's go with none -- aside from the fact that polling three years in advance of any election is good for clicks, but predictive of nothing.  If you somehow have an appetite for in-depth analysis of what these very early numbers mean, read this.  Personally, I can't stomach it yet.

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2013/08/08/2016-gop-poll-christie-leads-pack-followed-by-rubio-jeb-bush-n1658657
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2013, 06:12:23 PM »

I disagree about name recognition.  nobody had a clue who cain was last time until the end, and after a few debates, he was actually leading the pack.

LOL... what the F were people thinking... "Libya?  999, baby!"  hahahahaha what a funny candidate.

I think it's about which candidate is spending the most time, money and promises in iowa and NH right now.   Who is getting in bed with who.  Romney had 2012 locked down - because he spent 4 years building the structure. 

Aside from that - it's tough to trust an article that actually disparages their own source within the article... like, here's the info, but if you disagree it's okay, cause they're not credible anyway lol.   "Meanwhile, PPP's latest 2016 survey, setting aside the idiotic George Zimmerman trolling (he's an Obama-supporting Democrat anyway), produced a markedly different result:"
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« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2013, 06:18:02 PM »

These kind of stuff is meaningless

In the last election every nutbag (including Santorum) got a few days or week or two as the front runner and then they went for Romney

The same thing is going to happen this time and the safe bet is going to be Christie
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« Reply #4 on: August 09, 2013, 12:17:56 AM »

Christie? Yeah, no. Jeez.

Bohner and McConnell on there is a bad joke. Too old and out of it with compromised voting records and closed door deals.

A lot of old timer Repubs don't get Paul and Ryan and some of the Libertarian personal freedom concept stuff. Still clinging onto war on drugs or something not sure.

Rubio seems like that guy at the office you "forget" to invite to lunch when everybody else is going. Just something about him that I don't think translates nationally...like Bobby Jindal.

Cruz...born in Canada. Lawsuits just to run and so on.



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JOHN MATRIX
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« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2013, 08:54:22 AM »

Jindal and rubio were talked up but on their first major tv spot they both choked hard. Rubio will fade. Nobody but democrats want christie. Paul has a good shot but the media will try to tear him down and or ignore him like they did his father. Cruz is going to rise I think. He will not choke under pressure and he is too good a speaker to be bullied around. The ONLY reason he's not in front right now is because he's so new. As evidenced by the charts above, his only problem is that most still aren't familiar with him, and once they are, he rises.
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« Reply #6 on: August 09, 2013, 09:04:48 AM »

Rand has a very unique position...

He's smart enough to avoid the traps his dad fell into.  He knows how the right and left wing media works.  MSNBC branded Ron paul a racist, and FOX/levin ID'd him as a wimp for refusing to vow to bomb iran.

Mathews predicted he'll be the nominee.  Repubs (in the base) are darn tired of RINOs like romney and mccain.

I know we say this every time, but if there was ever a moment where they MIGHT ignore some soft RINO, it might be 2016.  Hilary against Rand is a GREAT election.   On the other hand... Hilary vs. Christie... are their positions really that much different?  LOL I dont think so. 
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JOHN MATRIX
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« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2013, 10:59:51 AM »

Exactly. RINOS will always lose because the base hates them and stays home. If they get a candidate that fires up the base they will win, regardless of how many dems are crying about needing a moderate to ' get the independents'. If they would have put ron paul on the ballot against obama last time he wld have got most of the independents. They gotta run the right person to make a contrast!!!
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« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2013, 11:37:53 AM »

i have to ask - when was the last time the repubs ran a "non" RINO?

Bush2?  Does he qualify?
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« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2013, 12:10:48 PM »

Jindal and rubio were talked up but on their first major tv spot they both choked hard. Rubio will fade. Nobody but democrats want christie. Paul has a good shot but the media will try to tear him down and or ignore him like they did his father. Cruz is going to rise I think. He will not choke under pressure and he is too good a speaker to be bullied around. The ONLY reason he's not in front right now is because he's so new. As evidenced by the charts above, his only problem is that most still aren't familiar with him, and once they are, he rises.

Keep in mind that Repubs didn't want Romney either

Dems certainly don't want Christie.  They would much prefer Rand Paul or some other wacky teabagger
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« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2013, 12:59:50 PM »

Keep in mind that Repubs didn't want Romney either

he won the nomination.  they picked him.  they keep listening to hannity and levin tell them "only a RINO is electable!"

doesn't seem to be the case.
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« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2013, 06:06:26 AM »

he won the nomination.  they picked him.  they keep listening to hannity and levin tell them "only a RINO is electable!"

doesn't seem to be the case.

WHAT? When did Hannity or Levin ever say anything remotely to that effect, especially Levin (who makes bashing RINOs an artform)?
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« Reply #12 on: August 11, 2013, 09:48:28 AM »

he won the nomination.  they picked him.  they keep listening to hannity and levin tell them "only a RINO is electable!"

doesn't seem to be the case.

the problem is that no current Repub is electable for POTUS (I think Christie has the best chance but will likely still fail though who knows who the Dem will be or what will be going on in the country in 2016)

Romney was the least "least electable" of the last batch of nuts

That's really the best the Repubs can hope for until they stop being the stupid and crazy party
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« Reply #13 on: August 11, 2013, 10:43:12 AM »

the problem is that no current Repub is electable for POTUS (I think Christie has the best chance but will likely still fail though who knows who the Dem will be or what will be going on in the country in 2016)

Romney was the least "least electable" of the last batch of nuts

That's really the best the Repubs can hope for until they stop being the stupid and crazy party
again this would carry more weight coming from someone who didnt support nancy pelosi.

Straw do you believe pelosi to be "bat shit crazy"?
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Roger Bacon
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« Reply #14 on: August 11, 2013, 11:26:19 AM »

Rand Paul
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dj181
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« Reply #15 on: August 11, 2013, 11:39:34 AM »

Rand Paul

is he of Scotch-Irish descent?
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« Reply #16 on: August 11, 2013, 12:26:49 PM »

is he of Scotch-Irish descent?

haha...  Grin

http://www.houseofnames.com/paul-family-crest
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dj181
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« Reply #17 on: August 11, 2013, 12:42:58 PM »


 Grin

do you know that all presidents were/are Protestants except for one catholic ie. kennedy

also, all presidents can trace thier ancestry to England, Scotland, Germany or Netherlands Cool
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« Reply #18 on: August 11, 2013, 03:46:10 PM »

Grin

do you know that all presidents were/are Protestants except for one catholic ie. kennedy

also, all presidents can trace thier ancestry to England, Scotland, Germany or Netherlands Cool


Yeah, I knew that.  Pretty interesting, I'm a descendant of Joseph Ball (George Washington's Father in Law).

Check this out...


* Obama-Bushheredity.jpg (236.86 KB, 1100x908 - viewed 61 times.)
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« Reply #19 on: August 11, 2013, 06:26:35 PM »

Has there ever been a non-"Rino" Republican president, let alone one in the current political era?
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« Reply #20 on: August 11, 2013, 06:36:54 PM »

so its time stamped


Jeb Bush vs Hillary Clinton in 2016

Hillary Wins by a landslide



you heard it right here..

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dj181
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« Reply #21 on: August 11, 2013, 10:50:35 PM »

Yeah, I knew that.  Pretty interesting, I'm a descendant of Joseph Ball (George Washington's Father in Law).

Check this out...

cool stuff Cool

Ohio had 7 or 9 presidents, number 2 after Virginia Cool
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JOHN MATRIX
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« Reply #22 on: August 12, 2013, 09:56:56 AM »

the problem is that no current Repub is electable for POTUS (I think Christie has the best chance but will likely still fail though who knows who the Dem will be or what will be going on in the country in 2016)

Romney was the least "least electable" of the last batch of nuts

That's really the best the Repubs can hope for until they stop being the stupid and crazy party
Everyone keeps on about this 'not electable' crap..it doesn't mean anything until there are two names on the ballot. And at that point you want a candidate who will provide a good contrast. The dems and the media are the only ones pushing christie, romney etc.. because they know a moderate next to a dem on a ballot means the dem is highly likely to win. I don't get why this is so hard to understand. The ONLY repub candidate last year who actually polled even with obama was ron paul! Ironically, for the very reason these idiots keep saying onl y a moderate is electable- because he draws so many independants! It blows my mind. If the ballot showed obama and ron paul, I suspect he would have come extrmely close or even beat obama.he would have fired up the base AND pulled huge youth numbers and independents away from obama..HUGE NUMBERS. I know of literally no one who was ever going for romney at any point. No one. Yet the media got their way and the lame moderate was put next to obama, who predictably slaughtered.

So no, christie is not 'electable'. Romney was not 'electable'. Only idiots and the dems and the media will say so
The truth is, ironically, that only a base guy, who can provide a stark contrast to the liberal name on there, is actually the one who is electable!!!!!!!
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« Reply #23 on: August 12, 2013, 04:20:13 PM »

already 5 ?
forget the Clown Car; they're up to a mini van now.
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