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Author Topic: Nate Silver Predicts GOP Holding 50-51 Senate Seats After 2014 Election  (Read 1497 times)
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« on: July 16, 2013, 08:41:33 AM »


"Following former Gov. Brian Schweitzer's decision not to run for Montana’s open U.S. Senate seat this weekend, New York Times polling guru Nate Silver predicted Monday that Republicans will hold 50 to 51 seats in the upper chamber after all ballots are counted in the 2014 Congressional mid-term elections."




It's going to be a while before demographic changes start changing state and local election results.  As I've said,  gerrymandering will keep the republicans in their seats.


http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/nate-silver-predicts-gop-holding-50-51-senate?ref=fpb
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« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2013, 01:57:57 PM »

nate silver was right in 2012 when the dumbfvck rasmussen was wrong as shit.

he's probbaly right about this one - I am sure repubs are suddenly going to fight for a chance to kneepad the guy.
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« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2013, 02:00:51 PM »

nate silver was right in 2012 when the dumbfvck rasmussen was wrong as shit.

he's probbaly right about this one - I am sure repubs are suddenly going to fight for a chance to kneepad the guy.

It's not like it wasn't easy to predict.  Dems overstated the demo shift either through delusion or wishful thinking, possibly both.
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« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2013, 02:57:15 PM »

It's not like it wasn't easy to predict.  Dems overstated the demo shift either through delusion or wishful thinking, possibly both.

Agreed. Trying to scare the opposition shitless thus causing them to overreact.

My hope or self-delusion is that the GOP wins both houses with the right candidates (in my opinion) and this causes them to shift internally and adapt.

If the GOP runs beltway Republican RINO's they will not see the gains they think.
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« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2013, 03:23:13 PM »

 Grin


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« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2013, 09:34:50 PM »

nate silver was right in 2012 when the dumbfvck rasmussen was wrong as shit.

he's probbaly right about this one - I am sure repubs are suddenly going to fight for a chance to kneepad the guy.

When did Rasmussen predict a Romney win? The last time he was on TV, he made NO prediction, said it was too close to call, and presented the possibility of Romney winning the popular vote but losing the election.
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« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2013, 05:33:27 AM »

When did Rasmussen predict a Romney win? The last time he was on TV, he made NO prediction, said it was too close to call, and presented the possibility of Romney winning the popular vote but losing the election.


BWAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Rasmussen was kneepadding romney for months before that election.  The 'official' feel-good poll of FOX news.  After the election, everyone was so quiet as nate silver took his victory lap and karl rove stood there speechless because his polling data failed him.

Now, 2014 and 2016 roll around, and repubs are going to play dumb about 2012 hahaha.  Come on man, we all get shit wrong.  Rass took it on the chin in 2012.  Admit it, and move on do the next election Smiley
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« Reply #7 on: August 16, 2013, 01:17:25 PM »

"Following former Gov. Brian Schweitzer's decision not to run for Montana’s open U.S. Senate seat this weekend, New York Times polling guru Nate Silver predicted Monday that Republicans will hold 50 to 51 seats in the upper chamber after all ballots are counted in the 2014 Congressional mid-term elections."




It's going to be a while before demographic changes start changing state and local election results.  As I've said,  gerrymandering will keep the republicans in their seats.


http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/nate-silver-predicts-gop-holding-50-51-senate?ref=fpb

How can this be?  The Republican Party is dead.  I read it right here on getbig.com. 

Lurker what do you think about this?
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« Reply #8 on: August 16, 2013, 06:09:13 PM »

My hope or self-delusion is that the GOP wins both houses with the right candidates (in my opinion) and this causes them to shift internally and adapt.

Fuck, as if this country needs more trouble. I'm perfectly happy with a divided Congress. As much as I hate the polarization and the stalemate that results, it's about the only way to limit the damage these fucking idiots can do.

Secondly, I don't know who the "right candidates" are according to you, but I hope they don't include people like Mike Rogers and Peter King to name two.
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« Reply #9 on: August 16, 2013, 09:23:36 PM »

nate was very accurate in 2012.   Rassmussen and others thought romney had it - but nate silver was crazy accurate.

Dems should be very nervous this time.  Maybe rassmussen will tell the dems what they want to hear Wink
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« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2013, 12:29:05 PM »


BWAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Rasmussen was kneepadding romney for months before that election.  The 'official' feel-good poll of FOX news.  After the election, everyone was so quiet as nate silver took his victory lap and karl rove stood there speechless because his polling data failed him.

Now, 2014 and 2016 roll around, and repubs are going to play dumb about 2012 hahaha.  Come on man, we all get shit wrong.  Rass took it on the chin in 2012.  Admit it, and move on do the next election Smiley

Rasmussen did no such thing. Again, I asked WHERE Rasmussen ever predicted a Romney win. On TV? NOPE! On his site? NOPE!!

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« Reply #11 on: August 18, 2013, 02:09:29 PM »

Rasmussen did no such thing. Again, I asked WHERE Rasmussen ever predicted a Romney win. On TV? NOPE! On his site? NOPE!!

which polls was karl rove citing all the while melting over 2012 results?

Maybe I can phrase it better "Rassmussen was a mile off and Nate silver nailed it"?   better?
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« Reply #12 on: August 18, 2013, 02:48:05 PM »

which polls was karl rove citing all the while melting over 2012 results?

Maybe I can phrase it better "Rassmussen was a mile off and Nate silver nailed it"?   better?
so you are lying again then, yes?
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« Reply #13 on: August 18, 2013, 03:09:59 PM »

which polls was karl rove citing all the while melting over 2012 results?

Maybe I can phrase it better "Rassmussen was a mile off and Nate silver nailed it"?   better?

Rove cited SEVERAL polls, not just Rasmussen (as in Gallup, Pew, Fox News, CNN, etc).

Again WHEN DID RASMUSSEN CLAIM ROMNEY WAS GOING TO WIN?

Even Rove picked that Romney would get no more than 295 EC votes (and that was stretch with Pennsylvania). He leaned toward Romney getting 275, as in Romney winning in a squeaker.
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« Reply #14 on: August 18, 2013, 03:35:48 PM »

Rove cited SEVERAL polls, not just Rasmussen (as in Gallup, Pew, Fox News, CNN, etc).

Again WHEN DID RASMUSSEN CLAIM ROMNEY WAS GOING TO WIN?

Even Rove picked that Romney would get no more than 295 EC votes (and that was stretch with Pennsylvania). He leaned toward Romney getting 275, as in Romney winning in a squeaker.

Hey, you can revise history all ya want.  If you're arguing landslide vs squeaker, when nate picked Obama when most others were not, I think the argument has already been decided as far as this one goes.

Nate silver nailed it in 2012 and everyone else was clueless.  Fact.

Now that Nate says Repubs will win senate, ya should celebrate.  He'll probably be right.  it'll be interesting now - - - My theory is that Rass and other right-leaning polls care more about giving satisfacctory numbers to republican news outlets, than about being accurate.  makes sense.  They were cited and made a great living saying Romney was leading.  People turn off fox news when they see a poll saying Obama by 3 points lol. 

So I think in 2014, they will say what they've always said.... slight republican lead.   No matter what the accurate Silver and others say.  They're in the entertainment industry.  Silver is going against his MSNBC lackeys here, interestingly enough.
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« Reply #15 on: August 18, 2013, 03:44:36 PM »

Hey, you can revise history all ya want.  If you're arguing landslide vs squeaker, when Nate picked Obama when most others were not, I think the argument has already been decided as far as this one goes.

Nate silver nailed it in 2012 and everyone else was clueless.  Fact.

Now that Nate says Re pubs will win senate, ya should celebrate.  He'll probably be right.  it'll be interesting now - - - My theory is that Rads and other relearning polls care more about giving satisfactory numbers to republican news outlets, than about being accurate.  makes sense.  They were cited and made a great living saying Romney was leading.  People turn off fox news when they see a poll saying Obama by 3 points Lola. 

So I think in 2014, they will say what they've always said.... slight republican lead.   No matter what the accurate Silver and others say.  They're in the entertainment industry.  Silver is going against his MSNBC lackeys here, interestingly enough.

The only one revising history is YOU. You claimed that Rasmussen called it for Romney. I've asked you THREE TIMES to show when and where he said that. And you have more excuses than a recidivist negro heading back to prison.



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« Reply #16 on: August 18, 2013, 03:51:38 PM »

The only one revising history is YOU. You claimed that Rasmussen called it for Romney. I've asked you THREE TIMES to show when and where he said that. And you have more excuses than a recidivist negro heading back to prison

Look, I let it slide when you misquoted me.  I said:
Rassmussen and others thought romney had it
dumbfvck rasmussen was wrong as shit.


And you somehow changed that to "called it for Romney".  I didn't want to correct you there, but you harped on it over and over.

We have now reached the point in our debate where you start trying to explain the difference between what I said above, and what you read below. 
This was Rass, the week before the election, being dumbfkck wrong as shit.  As I said. 

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/29/Romney-Rasmussen-win-election



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« Reply #17 on: August 18, 2013, 03:54:17 PM »

Predicting Romney will get 279+ electoral votes = thinking romney had it.

At this point, you can have all the little word games that you want.  I know, we still believe hermann cain was framed because none of his 14 accusers this or that, or because his apology never specifically said this or that.  I know, Bush never invaded for oil technically.  I know, I know, Zimmerman did nothing stupid by running into an alley with a gun using profanity.

I know.  Play the word games all day.  Fact is, Rass was wrong as shit, Silver was right as shit.  You can circle jerk with the dictionary but the bottom line is that the Dems are in trouble for 2014, whether you liek it or not.  Silver = teh accuracy.  rass = the sellout, ignorant of facts.
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« Reply #18 on: August 18, 2013, 05:05:54 PM »

Predicting Romney will get 279+ electoral votes = thinking romney had it.

At this point, you can have all the little word games that you want.  I know, we still believe hermann cain was framed because none of his 14 accusers this or that, or because his apology never specifically said this or that.  I know, Bush never invaded for oil technically.  I know, I know, Zimmerman did nothing stupid by running into an alley with a gun using profanity.

I know.  Play the word games all day.  Fact is, Rass was wrong as shit, Silver was right as shit.  You can circle jerk with the dictionary but the bottom line is that the Dems are in trouble for 2014, whether you liek it or not.  Silver = teh accuracy.  rass = the sellout, ignorant of facts.


I'm not playing any word games. And, once again, when your stupid points get flattened, you bring up crap that has nothing to do with the topic (Cain, Bush, Zimmerman, etc.). In fact, Scott Rassmussen himself went on O'Reilly and Hannity and stated that he couldn't make a prediction. In fact, it was on one of those shows that he's stated the possibility of Romney winning the popular vote but losing the election.

And if you went onto Rasmussen's site without the toss-up state factor used, it leaned slightly toward Obama. Even one week out, it had Obama - 237, Romney - 206, Toss-Up - 95

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard

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« Reply #19 on: August 18, 2013, 08:08:11 PM »

I'm not playing any word games. And, once again, when your stupid points get flattened, you bring up crap that has nothing to do with the topic (Cain, Bush, Zimmerman, etc.). In fact, Scott Rassmussen himself went on O'Reilly and Hannity and stated that he couldn't make a prediction. In fact, it was on one of those shows that he's stated the possibility of Romney winning the popular vote but losing the election.

And if you went onto Rasmussen's site without the toss-up state factor used, it leaned slightly toward Obama. Even one week out, it had Obama - 237, Romney - 206, Toss-Up - 95

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard



In that case, was Brietbart being misleading?
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« Reply #20 on: August 18, 2013, 08:47:08 PM »

Nate Silver projected a win - he was right, down to the states, almost.

Rass, well, they projected a win - and they were wrong.

There's nothing wrong with that being the case.  I think it looks GREAT for 2014 that Nate (the more accurate predictor) calls it for republicans.  Rass will probably just say "me too!" after the way he cleaned their clocks in 2012.


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« Reply #21 on: August 19, 2013, 09:51:21 AM »

Rove cited SEVERAL polls, not just Rasmussen (as in Gallup, Pew, Fox News, CNN, etc).

Again WHEN DID RASMUSSEN CLAIM ROMNEY WAS GOING TO WIN?

Even Rove picked that Romney would get no more than 295 EC votes (and that was stretch with Pennsylvania). He leaned toward Romney getting 275, as in Romney winning in a squeaker.

Ok so Rove was brutally wrong. It wasn't close and leaning toward 275 is bad enough, saying it would be 295 is delusion, dude didn't break 195 ECV's.

You are a delusional person, so because those exact words maybe were never uttered his poll showing Romney winning doesn't indicate who he thinks will win? isn't that implied?

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« Reply #22 on: August 19, 2013, 09:54:14 AM »

I'm not playing any word games. And, once again, when your stupid points get flattened, you bring up crap that has nothing to do with the topic (Cain, Bush, Zimmerman, etc.). In fact, Scott Rassmussen himself went on O'Reilly and Hannity and stated that he couldn't make a prediction. In fact, it was on one of those shows that he's stated the possibility of Romney winning the popular vote but losing the election.

And if you went onto Rasmussen's site without the toss-up state factor used, it leaned slightly toward Obama. Even one week out, it had Obama - 237, Romney - 206, Toss-Up - 95

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard



Holy fuck!! lol, you are beyond help. You misquote, misdirect and argue peripheral points. Rass was wrong, his polls were wrong, rove was wrong.
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« Reply #23 on: August 19, 2013, 05:28:13 PM »

Holy fuck!! lol, you are beyond help. You misquote, misdirect and argue peripheral points. Rass was wrong, his polls were wrong, rove was wrong.

MCWAY is awesome dude for arguments.   He will defend the indefensible.  Which is great for message board debates.  I mean, who in the world believed Hermann cain with "I have never done ANYTHING inappropriate in 43 years"?   I don't care who you are, 43 YEARS?   Not cheat, dude said "NOTHING INAPPROPRIATE in 43 years".   Total nonsense.

And then, suddenly, cain knew the woman after all.  Suddenly the $ she claimed was true. His lawyer admits the affair.  Cain admits hiding paid lez from his wife for 11 years. 


Yet still, he'll argue it.  Personally, I love it.  Keeps things interesting.  I smelled bullshit on Cain the moment he cracked a smile when asked about the polygraph.  Knew right then, this dude is a liar.  Some getbiggers still can't face it.
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« Reply #24 on: August 20, 2013, 07:33:29 AM »

MCWAY is awesome dude for arguments.   He will defend the indefensible.  Which is great for message board debates.  I mean, who in the world believed Hermann cain with "I have never done ANYTHING inappropriate in 43 years"?   I don't care who you are, 43 YEARS?   Not cheat, dude said "NOTHING INAPPROPRIATE in 43 years".   Total nonsense.

And then, suddenly, cain knew the woman after all.  Suddenly the $ she claimed was true. His lawyer admits the affair.  Cain admits hiding paid lez from his wife for 11 years. 


Yet still, he'll argue it.  Personally, I love it.  Keeps things interesting.  I smelled bullshit on Cain the moment he cracked a smile when asked about the polygraph.  Knew right then, this dude is a liar.  Some getbiggers still can't face it.

it's not a good quality, what you have described is called delusion. He also believes in fairy tales written thousands of years ago yet would find scientology absurd, the irony.
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