Author Topic: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates  (Read 181497 times)

Dos Equis

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 63770
  • I am. The most interesting man in the world. (Not)
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #400 on: January 27, 2015, 08:17:43 AM »
Which Republican 2016 hopeful might be most like Reagan?
By Chris Moody, CNN Senior Digital Correspondent
January 27, 2015

Washington (CNN)Let the 2016 Reagan wars begin.

As we enter another Republican presidential primary season, it's an easy bet that the contenders will compare themselves to former President Ronald Reagan, each with a lofty explanation about how they're the one who can make it Morning Again in America.

But which one of the possible contenders is most likely to govern like the Gipper?

For the answer, we turned to Crowdpac, a group started by Stanford University political scientists that ranks politicians on an ideological scale between liberal and conservative by examining public statements, voting records, donors and their own giving to other candidates.

Crowdpac issues politicians a score on a scale of 0-10, zero being the most moderate and 10 being the most conservative. (Democrats are ranked on the same scale, but the 10-score for them goes from moderate to liberal.) Of course, ideological rating systems that compare a combination of political actors—governors, senators, House members, former presidents and private citizens--are never perfect. But Crowdpac's analysts say their system of tracking money in politics is one of the best way to predict how a politician will vote on an issue.

Here we go!

For Reagan, Crowdpac issued a score of 7C, placing him a little to the right of the Republican middle.

By this measurement, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry nestles the nearest to the Gipper, ideologically, with a score of 6.9C. (Congrats!) Coming in a close second, with a score of 6.7C is Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, followed by Dr. Ben Carson, a retired neurosurgeon.

Meanwhile, Crowdpac's award for the least Reaganesque White House hopeful goes to the most moderate Republican in the field, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (2.5C). Christie is also the most moderate candidate of either party currently considering a run for the White House. Next furthest from Reagan, according to Crowdpac's model, is former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (4.2C), former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (4.7C) and Mitt Romney (5.0C), the party's presidential nominee in 2012.

All of the potential candidates have invoked and heaped praise on Reagan in one way or another, some more aggressively than others.

Perry, who spoke at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, Calif. in October, Perry took to the pages of the Washington Post to attack Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul on foreign policy by saying he would be nothing like Reagan.

In a National Review essay last year, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio gushed that Reagan's 1964 "A Time for Choosing" address was "A Speech for all Time." Rubio spoke at the Reagan Library in 2011, where he famously rescued former First Lady Nancy Reagan from a fall while walking her to her seat.

Christie also spoke at the Reagan Library in 2011, where he praised him for working with Democrats and passing immigration reform, two pieces of his legacy that conservatives ignore or point to as a darker point of his presidency.

LIke Christie, Bush has also praised Reagan's willingness to compromise. Bush's father, former President Geroge H.W. Bush, served as vice president under both of Reagan's terms.

"He embodied the strength, perseverance and faith that has propelled immigrants for centuries to embark on dangerous journeys to come here, to give up all that was familiar for all that was possible," Christie said. "His commitment to making America stronger, better and more resilient is what allowed him the freedom to challenge conventional wisdom, reach across party lines and dare to put results ahead of political opportunism."

Rand Paul stands at the other end of the Crowdpac scale, several points to the right of Reagan. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Walker are a few steps closer, followed by Indiana Gov. Mike Pence.

"I'm a great believer in Ronald Reagan," Paul has said. Despite his praise, Paul has also been critical of the Republican icon--from the right.

"Spending rose more dramatically under Reagan than it did under Carter," Paul said during a 2009 speech at Western Kentucky University, a year before he became senator. "You say, 'Well, Reagan's a conservative. Carter's a liberal.' It's not necessarily always what it seems."

Regardless of who ends up running, all the GOP candidates will pay a visit together to the Reagan Library in September for a presidential debate hosted by CNN.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/27/politics/crowdpac-reagan-2016-duplicate-2/index.html

Dos Equis

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 63770
  • I am. The most interesting man in the world. (Not)
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #401 on: January 27, 2015, 03:22:04 PM »
Walker takes step toward 2016 bid, forms political committee
Published January 27, 2015
FoxNews.com

Jan. 24, 2015: Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker speaks during the Freedom Summit in Des Moines, Iowa.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker announced Tuesday he's launching a new political committee, in a potential step toward a 2016 presidential bid.

Walker, who gave a well-received speech to a forum of conservative voters in Des Moines, Iowa, on Saturday, set up the committee “Our American Revival” on Jan. 16. A new website for the so-called 527 organization, which will help him get his message out as he works toward building his political clout, went live Tuesday morning.

Though the two-term governor has been vocal about his interest in running for the GOP nomination, establishing a committee is the first formal step Walker has taken.

"Our American Revival encompasses the shared values that make our country great," Walker said in a written statement. He called for "limiting the powers of the federal government to those defined in the Constitution while creating a leaner, more efficient, more effective and more accountable government to the American people."

Walker recently hired Rick Wiley, a former Republican National Committee political director, to lead the effort.

“Governor Walker has demonstrated bold leadership, something that’s sorely lacking in Washington, D.C.,” Wiley said in a written statement. “This country needs leaders with records of accomplishment.”

Walker’s steps are in stride with other prospective candidates, like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who earlier this week launched a political action committee.

During his speech Saturday in Iowa, home of the first-in-the-country caucus, Walker drew on his highly publicized battle with unions in his home state and told an emotional story of how he and his family received death threats for speaking out against the groups.

“If you are not afraid to go big and bold, you can actually get results,” he told the crowd.

Following his speech at the Iowa Freedom Summit, Walker went west – attending an event in California hosted by the billionaire Koch brothers.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/01/27/walker-2016-committee/?intcmp=latestnews

240 is Back

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 102396
  • Complete website for only $300- www.300website.com
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #402 on: January 27, 2015, 03:47:32 PM »
I like walker because he has the balls to consider starting riots to help his political causes.

most politicians like to follow the law and couldn't consider a thing.  Walker, he really considers it, but in his own words decided he might get caught.

polychronopolous

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 19041
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #403 on: January 27, 2015, 10:04:25 PM »
I like walker because he has the balls to consider starting riots to help his political causes.

most politicians like to follow the law and couldn't consider a thing.  Walker, he really considers it, but in his own words decided he might get caught.

Something tells me we are going to see one of these 2 girls for Veep Candidate on this ticket

Carly Fiorina



Susana Martinez


240 is Back

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 102396
  • Complete website for only $300- www.300website.com
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #404 on: January 27, 2015, 10:18:42 PM »
i think it'd be carly.   She brings $ and the romney pro-biz voters.

Martinez is obnoxious.  She gave a speech last time round and kept using gun titles like she'd never held one in her life.  "So then I pick up my A R FIF TEEN!!"  to the cheers from the crowd.   Grow up, and stop acting like it's anything but a tool.  Treat the weapon with respect and reverence. 

She needs 12 more years in office before she has the gravitas to hold that office. 

polychronopolous

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 19041
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #405 on: January 28, 2015, 06:24:21 AM »
i think it'd be carly.   She brings $ and the romney pro-biz voters.

Martinez is obnoxious.  She gave a speech last time round and kept using gun titles like she'd never held one in her life.  "So then I pick up my A R FIF TEEN!!"  to the cheers from the crowd.   Grow up, and stop acting like it's anything but a tool.  Treat the weapon with respect and reverence. 

She needs 12 more years in office before she has the gravitas to hold that office. 

So you are thinking of her more as a long term project? If at at all?

I can understand the deep respect you show for firearms. I think you've been carrying for what? 15 or 20 years? 

I just don't know how big of a segment of voters carry the same reverence. You stated the crowd began to cheer. Off putting for a guy like yourself but perhaps in some way the crowd with lesser knowledge/reverence was inspired with that display by Martinez?

Still, her ability to carry a Blue state as a Republican AND consistently have one of the highest approval rating among Governors does state something about her political ability.

240 is Back

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 102396
  • Complete website for only $300- www.300website.com
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #406 on: January 28, 2015, 07:11:47 AM »
So you are thinking of her more as a long term project? If at at all?

I can understand the deep respect you show for firearms. I think you've been carrying for what? 15 or 20 years? 

I just don't know how big of a segment of voters carry the same reverence. You stated the crowd began to cheer. Off putting for a guy like yourself but perhaps in some way the crowd with lesser knowledge/reverence was inspired with that display by Martinez?

Still, her ability to carry a Blue state as a Republican AND consistently have one of the highest approval rating among Governors does state something about her political ability.

true... i can think of a few getbiggers that don't even carry guns, and love martinez, probably because they see guns in that same mythical status. 

if she's that smirky and giggly live, I don't want her as vp.  I dont want any VP so eager to please the room.  I want a jeb, a hilary, a ron paul... "I dont care if you like me, but this is what i want to do as prez".  They'll frown when needed.  They'll shrug off differences.  I see young politicians smiling at everything, I dont like it.  paul ryan with the nervous fake smile when stressed against biden - no good. I want older, respected, dignified, seen the world, good for wisdom kinda veep.   that means they've carried a gun for decades and know it's a tool - not a punchline to rile people up.

OzmO

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 22729
  • Drink enough Kool-aid and you'll think its healthy
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #407 on: January 28, 2015, 07:35:52 AM »
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/01/bobby_jindal_preps_for_presidential_run_with_a_known_hate_group_s_the_response.html?wpsrc=fol_tw

Bobby Jindal’s Presidential Rollout Is Off to a Terrible Start

As a kid growing up in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, I watched Louisiana State University play basketball at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center. On Saturday, instead of basketball, I watched as a man lay with his face pressed against the floor, for half an hour. Robin May, a photographer standing next to me in the press area, asked the security guard if the man was OK.

“He’s just praying,” the guard said, “he must have a lot of people to pray for.”

We were at The Response, an evangelical prayer revival organized by the American Family Association, a known hate group. More than 3,000 people had gathered to save America, through prayer and fasting, from the threats of Sharia, homosexuality, pornography, and abortion. Materials promoting the event described natural disasters including Hurricane Katrina, as well as the national debt, as the just result of America’s sins, punishments akin to the biblical wave of locusts.


People cried as they sang along to Christian rock. A woman wearing a blue T-shirt with the word “Life” stood in front of TV cameras and raised her arms. One preacher, as if he were speaking to a classroom, exhorted the audience to pray together, saying, “Get in your groups.” He specified, “Small groups.” I watched as young men huddled together, a few speaking in tongues. One of them, Jesse, told me, “We don’t want revival, we need revival.”

Me? Instead of fasting, I sinned and snuck in a root beer float from Frostop, a Baton Rouge institution.

The headline speaker of The Response was Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal. He provided personal testimony about his conversion to Christianity while he was a student at Baton Rouge Magnet High School, which is also my alma mater. The event was supposed to be apolitical in nature, but it was widely viewed as part of the rollout for Jindal's inevitable run for president. New Orleans’ Gambit described Jindal’s presidential ambitions as the “worst-kept secret in Louisiana politics.”

In 2011, Rick Perry, then Texas governor, held his own gathering of The Response in Houston’s Reliant Stadium. Perry announced his campaign for the presidency five days later.

Another feature of high school was prominent at the event: bullies.
The promotional materials for Jindal’s event were the exact same ones Perry used. Someone even forgot to change the dates. Before they were taken down, prayer guides for The Response said Hurricane Katrina happened six years ago (it has been almost a decade).

Jindal’s staff and political allies have insisted The Response was a religious gathering rather than a political one, in an attempt to avoid the appearance of exploiting faith. Timmy Teepell, Jindal’s former chief of staff and his most important political adviser, attended the rally with his family. When I asked Teepell about the politics of the event, he told me that there were “no political implications, just spiritual” ones.

Still, the political overtones of Jindal’s participation in the event were obvious. On letterhead from the governor’s office, Jindal invited the 49 other governors to attend the event. None did. Jindal’s current chief of staff, Kyle Plotkin, was darting around the event, ensuring it went off without hiccups. Even Jindal’s giant belt buckle declared, “Bobby Jindal State of Louisiana.”

polychronopolous

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 19041
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #408 on: January 28, 2015, 07:46:03 AM »
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/01/bobby_jindal_preps_for_presidential_run_with_a_known_hate_group_s_the_response.html?wpsrc=fol_tw

Bobby Jindal’s Presidential Rollout Is Off to a Terrible Start

As a kid growing up in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, I watched Louisiana State University play basketball at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center. On Saturday, instead of basketball, I watched as a man lay with his face pressed against the floor, for half an hour. Robin May, a photographer standing next to me in the press area, asked the security guard if the man was OK.

“He’s just praying,” the guard said, “he must have a lot of people to pray for.”

We were at The Response, an evangelical prayer revival organized by the American Family Association, a known hate group. More than 3,000 people had gathered to save America, through prayer and fasting, from the threats of Sharia, homosexuality, pornography, and abortion. Materials promoting the event described natural disasters including Hurricane Katrina, as well as the national debt, as the just result of America’s sins, punishments akin to the biblical wave of locusts.


People cried as they sang along to Christian rock. A woman wearing a blue T-shirt with the word “Life” stood in front of TV cameras and raised her arms. One preacher, as if he were speaking to a classroom, exhorted the audience to pray together, saying, “Get in your groups.” He specified, “Small groups.” I watched as young men huddled together, a few speaking in tongues. One of them, Jesse, told me, “We don’t want revival, we need revival.”

Me? Instead of fasting, I sinned and snuck in a root beer float from Frostop, a Baton Rouge institution.

The headline speaker of The Response was Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal. He provided personal testimony about his conversion to Christianity while he was a student at Baton Rouge Magnet High School, which is also my alma mater. The event was supposed to be apolitical in nature, but it was widely viewed as part of the rollout for Jindal's inevitable run for president. New Orleans’ Gambit described Jindal’s presidential ambitions as the “worst-kept secret in Louisiana politics.”

In 2011, Rick Perry, then Texas governor, held his own gathering of The Response in Houston’s Reliant Stadium. Perry announced his campaign for the presidency five days later.

Another feature of high school was prominent at the event: bullies.
The promotional materials for Jindal’s event were the exact same ones Perry used. Someone even forgot to change the dates. Before they were taken down, prayer guides for The Response said Hurricane Katrina happened six years ago (it has been almost a decade).

Jindal’s staff and political allies have insisted The Response was a religious gathering rather than a political one, in an attempt to avoid the appearance of exploiting faith. Timmy Teepell, Jindal’s former chief of staff and his most important political adviser, attended the rally with his family. When I asked Teepell about the politics of the event, he told me that there were “no political implications, just spiritual” ones.

Still, the political overtones of Jindal’s participation in the event were obvious. On letterhead from the governor’s office, Jindal invited the 49 other governors to attend the event. None did. Jindal’s current chief of staff, Kyle Plotkin, was darting around the event, ensuring it went off without hiccups. Even Jindal’s giant belt buckle declared, “Bobby Jindal State of Louisiana.”

Oh no... Slate.com doesn't approve of him  ::)

Dos Equis

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 63770
  • I am. The most interesting man in the world. (Not)
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #409 on: January 28, 2015, 11:51:46 AM »
Something tells me we are going to see one of these 2 girls for Veep Candidate on this ticket

Carly Fiorina



Susana Martinez



I like Martinez.  She is one of my dark horse candidates, if she runs. 

Dos Equis

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 63770
  • I am. The most interesting man in the world. (Not)
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #410 on: January 28, 2015, 11:53:51 AM »
If the major donors get behind him he'll give Romney and Bush a run for their money (so to speak).

Koch donors give Marco Rubio early nod
Straw poll at donor summit rates 5 GOP hopefuls.
By KENNETH P. VOGEL and TARINI PARTI 1/28/15 5:40 AM EST Updated 1/28/15 11:38 AM EST

David Koch, executive vice president of chemical technology for Koch Industries Inc. is pictured. | Getty

The Koch brothers’ conservative network is still debating whether it will spend any of its massive $889 million budget in the Republican presidential primaries, but the prospect of choosing a GOP nominee loomed over the network’s just-concluded donor conference in the California desert.

In an informal straw poll of some conference donors, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida came out ahead of four other would-be GOP presidential candidates who had been invited, according to an attendee familiar with the results. The poll was conducted by Frank Luntz, a veteran GOP pollster, during a break-out session of the conference, which wrapped up Tuesday after a long weekend of presentations and discussions at the Ritz-Carlton in Rancho Mirage, Calif.

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul — who received the least enthusiastic response from donors during a Sunday night forum of prospective candidates that also featured Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz — finished last in Luntz’s poll, the source told POLITICO.

The poll is by no means a definitive assessment of the feelings of the hundreds of wealthy business leaders who comprise the vaunted network created by billionaire industrialist brothers Charles and David Koch. But it does provide an early glimpse into the leanings of a pool of megadonors who are being hotly courted by the field of would-be candidates, and whose checkbooks could go a long way toward determining who emerges with the GOP nomination — regardless of whether the Koch network decides to formally back a candidate.

The network has thus far steered clear of endorsing specific candidates in primaries, but it is coming under internal and external pressures to do so. It hopes to raise $889 million from wealthy backers like those who gathered in Rancho Mirage to push its agenda in 2015 and 2016, more than double what it spent in the 2012 election cycle.

In addition to Cruz, Paul and Rubio, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker paid a visit to the Ritz meeting, though he was not present for the forum.

The three-day conference was organized by Freedom Partners Chamber of Commerce, a nonprofit outfit that oversees the vast political and policy network created by the Koch brothers.

The meeting — part of an ongoing series of twice-a-year “seminars” as they’re called in the Kochs’ orbit — featured a mix of presentations on policy, politics and business. This winter’s session included a discussion moderated by conservative journalist Stephen F. Hayes on principled corporate citizenship and a luncheon discussion featuring MSNBC hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski, according to an attendee.

But the meat of the program consisted of detailing the network’s accomplishments and lessons learned in 2014, when it spent about $290 million and was credited with helping defeat vulnerable Democratic senators, and laying out its plans for the next two years.

Those plans are not exclusively or even primarily about partisan politics. Rather, they include everything from academic programs to public policy research and advocacy around the Kochs’ free-market philosophies to criminal justice reform, which is an increasing area of interest for Charles Koch.

The Kochs once abhorred both major political parties equally as intellectually bankrupt facilitators of unchecked government expansion. But their network has increasingly waded into campaigns on behalf of Republicans in recent years.

And one attendee at the Rancho Mirage seminar said donors were told that the network would boost its staffing for politically engaged groups to 1,500 for the next two years. That’s an increase of at least a couple hundred employees that is expected to include a significant number of field staff, whose jobs it will be to mobilize voters around fiscally conservative issues and — potentially — candidates.

Several of the network’s groups are likely to benefit from that increased staffing. Among those represented in Rancho Mirage are a handful of nonprofits that court voters with fiscally conservative messaging — including Americans for Prosperity (the most muscular group in the network), the LIBRE Initiative (which targets Hispanic voters), Generation Opportunity (millennials), Concerned Veterans for America (military personnel and veterans).

LIBRE, which already has a presence in eight states, plans to expand to Wisconsin and North Carolina this year and increase its staff by about 30 percent ahead of 2016, the group’s president Daniel Garza told POLITICO after the Rancho Mirage conference.

Garza stressed that the group also gets contributions from donors not affiliated with the Koch network and has no plans to jump into the 2016 primaries.

The group, which aired ads targeting Democrats in the run-up to the midterms, might start media buys later this year, Garza said. But it plans to spend the bulk of its 2015 budget on hosting events around the country to expose Hispanics to its policy agenda, which includes state’s rights, school choice and reforms to the federal tax code, immigration system and Obamacare.

Another outfit expected to benefit from cash steered through the network is a for-profit company called i360 that assembles and mines data for voter outreach, including by nonprofits in the network.

Americans for Prosperity and Concerned Veterans for America have hinted they may jump into contested GOP congressional primaries under the right circumstances.

Dan Caldwell, legislative and political director for Concerned Veterans for America, explained Tuesday that his group — which is planning to expand this year into Iowa, South Carolina, Colorado and Pennsylvania — wouldn’t rule out primary engagement. “If we feel like members aren’t supporting or impeding our legislative agenda or they’re misrepresenting their record, we will start our issue advocacy,” he said.

Some leading Republicans wonder whether it would be possible for any of the would-be GOP presidential candidates to win over the Koch operation as a whole given the diversity of social and national security positions embraced by the brothers’ increasingly wide donor network.

The results of the informal Rancho Mirage straw poll highlight the fractured — and unpredictable — nature of the Koch network when it comes to 2016. Rubio got the most votes despite espousing hawkish foreign policy stances that seem to clash with the Kochs' non-interventionist sensibilities. Paul, meanwhile, finished last despite a libertarian worldview that in some ways seems most similar to the Kochs' own philosophies — and his loss marks a potential setback in his effort to build a base of wealthy supporters for a presidential bid.

“It would seem to me that it would be too difficult for them to form a consensus on a candidate,” said Fred Malek, a top Republican bundler and donor who has attended past Koch seminars. He called the $889 million goal for 2016 “breathtaking, eye-opening kind of money. But it illustrates the dedication of hardworking Americans to changing the direction of the country.”

The Koch network has been known for hitting its lofty fundraising goals. The $889 million target would more than double the amount spent by the Republican National Committee during the 2012 cycle. The comparison underscores the migration of power and money away from the political parties and their candidates and to outside groups that — unlike the parties and candidates — can accept unlimited donations from individuals, corporations and unions.

“Political money now flows through outside groups because of laws that were passed that really weakened the parties, (so) these outside efforts are incredibly important,” said Matt Schlapp, chairman of the American Conservative Union. Schlapp — who worked for Karl Rove in the Bush White House political office before leading the Washington office for Koch Industries, the brothers’ multinational industrial conglomerate — said the Kochs and their operation “represent a very important voice and a very important perspective” and are “going to play an important role in 2016.”

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/koch-donors-marco-rubio-2016-114673.html#ixzz3Q9D64QoT

Dos Equis

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 63770
  • I am. The most interesting man in the world. (Not)
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #411 on: January 30, 2015, 08:59:17 AM »
Mitt Romney will not run in 2016
By Alexandra Jaffe, Dana Bash and John King, CNN
January 30, 2015

Washington (CNN)Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will not make a third run for president, he told supporters on a Friday morning call, saying he believes it's "best to give other leaders in the party the opportunity" to become the nominee.

Romney acknowledged during the call that he may not have been the strongest contender for the GOP in a general election, and said that was the primary motivation behind his decision.

Former Romney co-chair 'not happy' with 2016 interest

"I feel that it is critical that America elect a conservative leader to become our next president. You know that I have wanted to be that president. But I do not want to make it more difficult for someone else to emerge who may have a better chance of becoming that president," he said.

The 2012 GOP nominee said on the call that he'll "do whatever I can" to help elect that person — and attempted to tamp down any further speculation over whether he'll change his mind.

"That seems unlikely," he said. "Accordingly, I'm not organizing a PAC or taking donations; I'm not hiring a campaign team."

Romney said that while he's "convinced that we could win the nomination ... it would have been a difficult test and a hard fight."

"Our finance calls made it clear that we would have enough funding to be more than competitive. With few exceptions, our field political leadership is ready and enthusiastic about a new race. And the reaction of Republican voters across the country was both surprising and heartening," he said, noting early primary polling that's had him leading the potential GOP primary field.

But since his surprise announcement to donors earlier this month that he was interested in making another bid, Romney has had a rocky start.

Wall Street wasn't ready for another Mitt Romney campaign

He's faced deep skepticism from some quarters within the party, including some of his major donors and former campaign aides. Many expressed concerns that Romney wasn't the best option to take on expected Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, whom the GOP plans to portray as old news and out of touch — both characterizations that could dog the former Massachusetts governor if he runs again as well.

And the decision this week of a top Romney operative in Iowa to sign up with Bush's campaign was the latest in a series of defections, raising doubts on Romney's chances going forward.

But Romney's decision not to run doesn't remove him from the 2016 calculus. Rather, it sets him up as a certain kingmaker in the wide-open GOP primary, as he still holds sway over many major donors and has deep respect within the party.

And it solidifies former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush's position as the preferred candidate of the establishment in the GOP primary, improving his chances in the overall fight. A wide array of conservative contenders are expected to jump in the race and will jockey for position; Romney's exit leaves just Bush and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie as the clear establishment contenders.

Bush used his social media accounts Friday to praise Romney's decision.

"Though I'm sure today's decision was not easy, I know that Mitt Romney will never stop advocating for renewing America's promise through upward mobility, encouraging free enterprise and strengthening our national defense," Bush posted on his Facebook wall Friday after the announcement came. "Mitt is a patriot and I join many in hoping his days of serving our nation and our party are not over.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/30/politics/romney-2016-call/index.html

Dos Equis

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 63770
  • I am. The most interesting man in the world. (Not)
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #412 on: January 30, 2015, 10:08:28 AM »
Fox News cover photo.  lol


Dos Equis

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 63770
  • I am. The most interesting man in the world. (Not)
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #413 on: January 30, 2015, 01:07:16 PM »
All you can eat buffet?  lol

Mitt Romney Won’t Run in 2016 Presidential Election
By JONATHAN MARTIN and MICHAEL BARBARO
JAN. 30, 2015

WASHINGTON — Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican presidential nominee, told a group of supporters on Friday that he would not seek his party’s nomination for president in 2016.

Mr. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, shared his decision on a conference call with a small group of advisers.

In a second call to a larger group of supporters, Mr. Romney said, “After putting considerable thought into making another run for president, I’ve decided it is best to give other leaders in the party the opportunity to become our next nominee.”

Mr. Romney said he believed he could win the nomination, but he expressed concern about harming the party’s chances to retake the White House. “I did not want to make it more difficult for someone else to emerge who may have a better chance of becoming the president,” he said.

He added that it was “unlikely” that he would change his mind.

Mr. Romney, who did not take questions and ended the call shortly after reading a prepared statement, said that his family had been gratified by the outpouring of support, but had decided that it was best for the Republican Party to step aside. Mr. Romney said he would have no leadership PAC and no exploratory committee.

By not pursuing a third White House bid, Mr. Romney frees up scores of donors and operatives who had been awaiting his decision, and creates space for other potential center-right candidates such as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

Mr. Romney, 67, had expressed renewed interest in another presidential run to a group of donors earlier this month, roiling the nascent Republican race. Many of his loyal contributors, staff members and supporters had been reluctant to come out for one of his potential rivals until they knew Mr. Romney’s plans.

But his flirtation had also prompted a fierce backlash across Republican circles, and some of Mr. Romney's former aides and donors have begun moving on to other candidates.

In a more than four-hour meeting last week, Mr. Romney’s top staff members and trusted advisers from 2012 relayed a sobering reality — they supported Mr. Romney and thought he would be the best president, but they did not necessarily encourage a third run.

One by one, loyal supporters talked about surveying their troops from 2012, and finding that the enthusiasm and support were just not there. Some Iowa precinct leaders were not coming back, and even in New Hampshire — where Mr. Romney had won the primary — the mood was described at best as “cautiously optimistic.” The situation with donors was also going to be an uphill climb.

Word of Mr. Romney’s decision sent waves through the Republican donor world early Friday, as Romney aides began to telegraph the news to donors and other staff members and strategists. Some donors immediately began calling representatives of other potential candidates, such as Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, to discuss offering their support.

Mr. Romney’s announcement started a day of reckoning with his would-be rivals. He is scheduled to have dinner with Mr. Christie on Friday evening, according to two people with knowledge of his schedule, suggesting that Mr. Romney may be considering throwing his support, and that of his own political operation, to Mr. Christie. The two men are friendly, and Mr. Christie, along with Mr. Bush, was a main rival of Mr. Romney for the favor of the Republican establishment.

Mr. Bush offered his own warm words for Mr. Romney in a post on Facebook on Friday morning.

Now that Mr. Romney publicly and finally admits he lost the 2012 Election, it is time for Sen. John McCain to do the same for 2008.

A lot of people are really enjoying this but I wonder what they would do in the same situation. He was the 2012 nominee and he ran a fairly...

“Mitt is a patriot and I join many in hoping his days of serving our nation and our party are not over,” Mr. Bush wrote. “I look forward to working with him.”

At 11 on Thursday night, a blast email was sent from a mittromney.com address, alerting supporters about a conference call on Friday morning.

“Please join me for an update call tomorrow at 11:00 a.m. EST, 8:00 a.m. PST,” wrote Mr. Romney, adding the dial-in information and concluding, “All the best, Mitt.”

But well before that email was sent, Mr. Romney had already made the decision not to get into the campaign, according to two people close to Mr. Romney. He and his wife had decided against a third run the previous weekend, but wanted to “sit with it for a few days to make sure.”

In an appearance at Mississippi State University on Wednesday, Mr. Romney sounded themes that could have shaped another campaign. But he also lamented the nature of the political process and offered a dose of barely veiled self-criticism, discussing some of the shortcomings of his 2012 campaign and the lessons he learned from his loss to President Obama.

Mr. Romney’s decision will almost certainly bring an end to his decade-long quest to become president. He lost in the Republican primary in 2008 before becoming his party’s standard-bearer four years later.

Friday’s conference call seemed bittersweet for the Romney family. At one point, Mr. Romney’s wife, Ann, came on the line and thanked the former aides for their steadfast support.

But luck was clearly not with Mr. Romney this time, even as he shared the news with his former staff members on his morning call. Mr. Romney’s voice fell off the line as the connection was suddenly dropped.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/31/us/mitt-romney-2016-presidential-election.html?_r=0

240 is Back

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 102396
  • Complete website for only $300- www.300website.com
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #414 on: January 30, 2015, 02:29:36 PM »
if mitt's out, then jeb's in.   

Dos Equis

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 63770
  • I am. The most interesting man in the world. (Not)
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #415 on: February 02, 2015, 12:38:15 PM »
Scott Walker surging, Hillary Clinton dominating new Iowa poll
BY KELLY COHEN | JANUARY 31, 2015

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker speaks at the American Action Forum in Washington, Thursday, Jan. 29,...
Don’t look now, but Gov. Scott Walker is becoming a presidential favorite.

While the Wisconsin Republican seems to be surging in a new poll of Iowans, he has close competition in other GOP possibles in the latest Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll.

Walker is leading the Republican race with 15 percent, up from just four percent in the same poll done in October. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul stands at 14 percent, followed by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 10 percent.

The poll also found that Bush’s appeal is slipping; 46 percent of Republicans viewed him favorably, compared to 43 percent who said unfavorably.

Interestingly enough, six of 10 likely Republican voters said they consider the candidate’s values more important than electability, a clear representation of how wide open the Republican race is.

Obama's defense budget requests will likely trigger automatic sequester cuts unless Congress raises the cap.
Unfortunately, the poll was done before Mitt Romney’s Friday announcement that he would forgo another White House bid – he garnered 13 percent in the poll.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is far and away the leader among Democratic candidates. With 46 percent, her next closest competitor is Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who has 16 percent.

The poll of 402 Republican likely caucus-goers and 401 Democratic likely caucus goers was conducted from Jan. 26-29, with a margin of error of plus or minus of 4.9 percentage points.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/scott-walker-surging-hillary-clinton-dominating-new-iowa-poll/article/2559626?utm_campaign=Fox%20News&utm_source=foxnews.com&utm_medium=feed

Dos Equis

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 63770
  • I am. The most interesting man in the world. (Not)
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #416 on: February 02, 2015, 12:40:59 PM »
Jeb Bush has become the GOP front-runner for 2016 — so now what?
 

For his presidential campaign, Jeb Bush plans to emphasize themes related to middle-class wage stagnation, upward mobility for those trapped at the bottom and outreach to minority communities. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg)
By Karen Tumulty and Matea Gold
January 31, 2015

Mitt Romney’s decision to forgo a third try at the White House has settled the question of whether the 2016 GOP presidential field has a front-runner — bestowing a coveted status on former Florida governor Jeb Bush that also raises new challenges and perils.

Republicans have a tradition of picking an anointed one early. That establishment candidate almost always ends up with the nomination, although not without a fight and some speed bumps along the way.

But this is a particularly unsettled time for the party. It is struggling to define its identity amid open warfare among its various factions. And there are a raft of fresh and potentially appealing faces emerging on the scene, comprising what many Republicans believe could be the strongest undercard of early-bout contenders in decades.

Losing Romney as a rival is “a mixed bag for Bush,” said veteran GOP strategist Saul Anuzis, a former chairman of the Michigan Republican party. “He also becomes the target of everyone who is anti-establishment. Before, you had Romney and Bush kind of splitting up that ire.”

Bush was already assembling a formidable army of fundraisers and talented operatives, including poaching Romney’s top Iowa strategist, David Kochel, to be his national campaign manager.

That process appeared to intensify after the 2012 GOP presidential nominee bowed out on Friday.

“It’s a great day for Jeb Bush,” said Brian Ballard, a lobbyist who led Romney’s 2012 fundraising effort in Florida and switched to Bush this time around. “I think Jeb had 75 percent of the money folks here. This brings in the other 25 percent.”

Chicago private-equity executive Bill Kunkler and his wife, Susan Crown, had been top fundraisers for Romney in the last election and had expected to be there again for him in 2016.

Now, Bush is “the only one my wife and I will work for,” Kunkler said. “If it’s not Jeb, we’re done for this cycle. I know in my heart that Jeb is the only one who passes the presidential test. . . . We’ll be all in for him.”

But there will be plenty of competition for the big funders who built the massive Bank of Mitt in 2012.

Virginia fundraiser Bobbie Kilberg, who with her husband, Bill Kilberg, raised more than $4 million for Romney, said they had committed to help him again if he ran. Now, she will support New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — and bring as many other donors over as she can.

Still, “we shouldn’t assume that the only people competing for the center-right pie will be Jeb and Chris. I don’t think any of the prospective candidates will be shy about going after these donors. It’s a race between everyone,” said Kilberg, who cited former Texas governor Rick Perry, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker as also making strong appeals.

Marshaling resources, however, is not the only challenge for Bush that may have been heightened with Romney’s decision not to run.

“It raises expectations in kind of an unrealistic way,” said one member of the former Florida governor’s nascent campaign team, who did not want to be identified discussing Bush’s strategy.

Bush’s biggest challenge — and now, arguably, his most urgent — is to define himself for an electorate whose impression of him has been shaped largely by the last name that he shares with two former presidents, his father and his brother.

That is not an unalloyed asset at a moment when many Republicans are looking to turn the page politically and are intrigued by relative newcomers. Walker, who was a big hit at a conservative gathering in Iowa last weekend, led a tight field in a Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll of that state’s caucusgoers released Saturday night. Christie can boast of a landslide 2013 re-election in a heavily Democratic state. Another potential candidate is Bush’s fellow Floridian, the charismatic Sen. Marco Rubio.

The former governor also does not have a strong connection with elements of the grass-roots base of his party, as do such figures as tea party favorite Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), libertarian Paul, or social-issue warriors such as former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and former senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.

Bush himself last ran for public office more than 12 years ago — in the middle of his brother’s first term, before the launch of the Iraq war and at a time when the first iPhone was nearly five years in the future. (He does fancy himself a technology buff; his official portrait as governor features him standing beside a bookshelf, on which a BlackBerry rests in its charger.)

As the front-runner, he and his record are guaranteed to come under more scrutiny.

Two questions about Bush will be answered only by running: Will he be able to build a state-of-the-art campaign operation for a digital age? And does he have the retail political skills to prevail in early states such as Iowa and New Hampshire, which are a repetitive grind of town-hall meetings, living-room receptions and candidate forums?

Bush expects his rivals to paint him as a moderate, given his positions on issues that inflame the GOP base, including his support for a path to legalization for the undocumented immigrants and for Common Core. Conservatives, libertarians and even some liberals have criticized the K-12 academic standards in math and reading as undermining local control of education.

Bush believes he can run as an unabashedly conservative, free-market Republican without backing away from stances that have rankled the right. What will truly differentiate him, his strategists vow, is his determination to run on a positive message that resonates with a broad audience nationally.

Among the themes he will emphasize are middle-class wage stagnation, upward mobility for those trapped at the bottom and outreach to minority communities that could hold the key to GOP hopes of winning in 2016. He named his political action committee “Right to Rise,” a slogan borrowed from Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), who was Romney’s 2012 running mate.

Bush will go to Michigan on Wednesday to road-test his pitch before the Detroit Economic Club, which is known as a venue where presidential candidates of both parties go to showcase their policy bona fides.

But Bush advisers say his appearance in a heavily Democratic, economically devastated city is also designed to send another message — that he believes he is the Republican best equipped to compete across the map.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/jeb-bush-has-become-the-gop-front-runner-for-2016--so-now-what/2015/01/31/0105ca68-a96e-11e4-a06b-9df2002b86a0_story.html

Dos Equis

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 63770
  • I am. The most interesting man in the world. (Not)
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #417 on: February 02, 2015, 04:24:27 PM »
Don't have any idea how scientific this poll is, but pretty surprising showing for Walker.

https://polldaddy.com/poll/8625087/?view=results

Dos Equis

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 63770
  • I am. The most interesting man in the world. (Not)
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #418 on: February 06, 2015, 08:44:40 AM »
Bush, Walker Lead 2016 GOP Pack in NH Poll

Image: Bush, Walker Lead 2016 GOP Pack in NH Poll (Bill Pugliano/Darren Huack/Getty Images)
Thursday, 05 Feb 2015
By Cathy Burke

Jeb Bush and Scott Walker are at the top of the heap of potential 2016 Republican presidential candidates in New Hampshire, a new poll shows.

The WMUR Granite State survey released Thursday finds Bush, the former Florida governor, with 17 percent support among likely 2016 Republican primary voters, followed closely by Wisconsin Gov. Walker – who's surging in popularity since his speech last month at the conservative Iowa Freedom Summit – with 12 percent.

"Scott Walker is interesting here … because less than half the voters in the state know him, but he has the highest net favorability rating of all the Republican candidates, so there's something about Scott Walker that Republicans seem to like," said Andy Smith of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the poll.

Following the leaders were New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, each of whom received 9 percent support. Retired pediatric neurosurgeon and conservative activist Ben Carson received 8 percent support.

Polling below 5 percent were former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

"This is absolutely a wide-open race," Smith said. "In fact, this is the first time in the modern primary cycle since 1972 that the Republican primary field has been this wide open."

The survey also is the first from the TV station since former Massachusetts governor and 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney declared he wouldn't take a third run at the White House, The Hill reports.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton maintains her formidable edge, the poll shows.

"She's still leading clearly over the rest of the Democratic candidates," Smith said. "Clinton is at 58 percent. Then, it drops way off to 14 percent for Elizabeth Warren."

Still, the poll shows Clinton, who has yet to declare her candidacy, is vulnerable, Smith said.

"Only about 31 percent think she's the most believable," Smith said. "Only 32 percent of primary voters think she's the most likable candidate, so there is some weaknesses that she has there."

The poll shows more than 75 percent of voters in each party have not made a decision about their 2016 presidential choice.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percent for Republicans and 5.7 percent for Democrats.

http://www.Newsmax.com/Newsfront/bush-walker-new-hampshire-poll/2015/02/05/id/623085/#ixzz3Qz4WhcK7

240 is Back

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 102396
  • Complete website for only $300- www.300website.com
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #419 on: February 06, 2015, 08:46:27 AM »
Bush/Walker or Bush/Rubio seem realistic, status quo choices.

Cruz would be a lightning rod and would make Hilary looks like a corporate tool.

But repubs want what they want.  They are familiar with Jeb, they like the idea of a "repub" who supports amnesty.

Dos Equis

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 63770
  • I am. The most interesting man in the world. (Not)
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #420 on: February 09, 2015, 12:39:01 PM »
Carson getting 'personnel, rationale' in place for possible 2016 White House run
Published February 08, 2015
FoxNews.com

Dr. Ben Carson acknowledged Sunday that he is building a campaign team for a potential 2016 presidential run and indicated he will make a formal announcement by May.

“We’re making sure all the infrastructure is in place -- personnel and rationale,” said Carson, a conservative favorite expected to run in the Republican primary. “We’re putting all of that together.”

Carson indicated on “Fox News Sunday” that he will, in the next couple of weeks, announce an exploratory committee toward a White House bid and that he would make public in May whether we will formally enter the race.

The 63-year-old Carson continues to do well in early polling.

“We’re making sure all the infrastructure is in place . . ."
- Dr. Ben Carson
He finished tied for fifth in a Bloomberg Politics/Saint Anselm New Hampshire Poll for potential GOP candidates released Sunday.

He finished behind former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Carson tied with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Carson criticized President Obama’s plan to provide free community college education to Americans. He said existing Pell Grants already help students from low-income families receive a higher education. And he offered advice for those who don’t qualify for assistance.

“W-o-r-k,” he said, arguing that government is not responsible for providing everything to it citizens, including those in low- and middle-income families.

“They’re looking for a pathway out,” Carson said. “That’s what we have to provide for them.”

Carson also weighed in on the recent debate about immunization and the measles outbreak that has divided the potential 2016 GOP White House field. He said parents should immunize their children.

Carson said many parents who don’t immunize are the victims of old misinformation and suggested the public health community hasn’t done a good enough job of getting out the correct information, which is that the obvious upsides outweigh the potential downsides, such as allergic reactions.

However, he argued the issue shouldn’t be partisan.

“It’s not a Republican or Democratic issue,” Carson told Fox News.

Days earlier, Paul suggested parents should have their children immunized, but also argued: “The state doesn’t own the children.”

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/02/08/carson-says-getting-personnel-rational-in-place-for-2016-white-house-run-hints/

Dos Equis

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 63770
  • I am. The most interesting man in the world. (Not)
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #421 on: February 09, 2015, 12:40:29 PM »
Huckabee: Wouldn't be a 'shock' if I run
Alexandra Jaffe, CNN
Mon February 9, 2015

Washington (CNN)Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee said Monday that to consider him likely to run for president in 2016 is a "pretty good assessment of where things stand."

"I don't think it'll be a big shock to anybody if I jump in the fray and once again run for president in 2016," he said on CNN's New Day, calling his resignation from Fox as a host and commentator the "tip of the hand that things are moving in that direction."

Huckabee has ramped up his political activity in preparation for that potential presidential bid, visiting early primary states and calling former political advisers to discuss plans. But he's thus far made cultural issues a centerpiece of his message, drawing frequent headlines for his criticism of pop star Beyonce and opposition to same sex marriage.

Polling has shown, however, public sentiment shifting in favor of gay marriage nationwide, and even a significant portion of the Republican Party coming around to the idea. A recent CNN/ORC poll found that 57% of Americans think gay couples should have the right to marry, and 36% of Republicans agree.

But asked whether the polling suggests he's on the "wrong side of history," Huckabee defended his opposition to gay marriage as being supported by a long tradition of "biblical marriage."

"When you say 'the wrong side of history,' let's just be reminded that there's been a relatively, and I mean a very relative brief history of same-sex marriage. The overwhelming history is the natural law of marriage, biblical marriage," he said. "So I don't think there's a side of history that's overwhelming at this point. People have their opinions."

He argued, however, that the presidential race won't center on the candidates' views on gay marriage, but rather their economic visions and proposals to combat poverty and inequality.

"I don't care whether people are straight or gay, they want to be able to know that they have a real chance to live the American dream, which they can't as long as the economy keeps its boot on their face," he said.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/09/politics/huckabee-presidential-run-shock/index.html

240 is Back

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 102396
  • Complete website for only $300- www.300website.com
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #422 on: February 09, 2015, 01:29:39 PM »
Huckabee: Wouldn't be a 'shock' if I run

the only run he's doing is the crooked trot to the front yard when he hears the ice cream truck rolling down the road.

polychronopolous

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 19041
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #423 on: February 12, 2015, 01:49:59 PM »
SCOTT WALKER TAKES WIDE LEAD IN CALIFORNIA; JEB BUSH, BEN CARSON TIED FOR SECOND



A new survey of 600 likely California 2016 Republican primary voters shows that when presented with a lengthy list of potential GOP presidential contenders, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker comes out on top with a healthy 20% of the vote.

Behind him, nearly tied, are surgeon and author Ben Carson and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, at 10% each. Notably, Carly Fiorina, a former head of Hewlett Packard and former GOP U.S. Senate nominee in California, enjoys a scant 1.7% support.

The survey was commissioned by California Political Review and its publisher, respected conservative leader James Lacy, and conducted by the reputable pollsters NSON out of Utah. You can dig into most detailed data, crosstabs and poll questions here.

Of course you may be reading this and asking yourself, “California? Who cares how well these candidates are doing in such a blue state?”

If someone is able to clinch the nomination in the early or middle stages of the primary–perhaps California will not matter much. But with no incumbent or natural strong front-runner at this stage, here is why California, even with its late primary in early June, could still matter.

“There will likely be a total of 2,461 delegates at the 2016 GOP Convention. California should be allotted 172 of those delegates, about 7% of the total. Of California’s delegates, 10 are awarded to the candidate who wins the statewide vote,” says Jim Lacy in his analysis.

He goes on to say: “In addition, a candidate who finishes first in any one of California’s 53 Congressional districts is awarded 3 delegates. The state party chairman and two national committee members are also delegates.

“The winning margin at the Republican National Convention will be 1,230 delegates. Theoretically, a candidate who could sweep California’s Republican Presidential primary election could count on the state to deliver just over 14% of the total delegates needed for victory.”

Bottom line: The California delegation at the RNC nominating convention will be really, really big.

Unlike other partisan races in California, where June contests are open to voters of all political persuasions (following the passage a few years ago of Proposition 14, the so-called “open primary” ballot measure), presidential primary voting for Republicans is open to registered party members only.

Even with limited resources available for such a late-voting state, it will be prudent for contenders looking at the long road to the nomination to be concerned with a California campaign and infrastructure.

The need for a ground game in this traditionally television-dominated state came about because of a reform of California Republican Party Rules that took place fifteen years ago, when then-State Chairman John McGraw and then-State Senator Ray Haynes championed a new “Winner Take All By District” system. Essentially, it means that whichever candidate wins the plurality of the vote in each of California’s 53 U.S. House Districts will be awarded the three delegates from that district. In addition, a small number of statewide delegates will all go to the winner of the plurality of the statewide GOP vote.

“It was a real kick to attend the 2008 RNC convention in Tampa as a Romney delegate, even though McCain won California,” former State GOP Vice Chairman Steve Baric told me. Romney won the Orange County-centered U.S. House seat where Baric lived, even though McCain’s statewide vote was 42% to Romney’s 34%. And this was without any meaningful voter-contact taking place in the state (McCain had sewn up the nomination).

These rules mean that candidates do not have to approach California as a huge, monolithic and prohibitively expensive place in which to campaign. Candidates can campaign regionally, or even micro-target specific Congressional Districts.

Our very blue state has a vast number of very liberal seats where the number of voting Republicans is, frankly, miniscule. But these small voting universes of GOP voters in Democratic strongholds will decide the fate of three delegates to the RNC convention.

When I say miniscule turnout–let me throw out some examples. In the Los Angeles district of Rep. Janice Hahn (D-CA), 6,103 Republicans voted in the GOP Presidential primary, and in the San Francisco district of former Speaker Nancy Pelosi there were 9,965 GOP votes cast.

Perhaps Rand Paul has made inroads already in the GOP-lite 13th Congressional District of Rep. Barbara Lee, which includes U.C. Berkeley, where the Kentucky Senator spoke last year and was received enthusiastically. In that seat, only 11,449 Republicans voted in the GOP Presidential primary in 2012.

While it is early yet in the GOP presidential primary race, it would behoove smart candidates to start organizing early in California. A smart candidate will be sure to have a volunteer campaign chairman in each of California’s congressional districts.

I understand that Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal will be in California next week. Wonder if he’s thought about his South-Central Los Angeles campaign strategy?

Dos Equis

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 63770
  • I am. The most interesting man in the world. (Not)
Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #424 on: February 12, 2015, 02:51:23 PM »
Interesting.  Walker is making quite a splash, but it's early.  Look for the liberal hit pieces to start soon.  They are probably combing his Kindergarten records looking for dirt.