Author Topic: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates  (Read 190426 times)

Dos Equis

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #775 on: October 05, 2015, 10:12:03 AM »
The slide that so many pundits predicted is beginning.

Donald Trump Falls: Ben Carson Surges To Lead In Poll
BY JOHN MERLINE, INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
10/02/2015

Presidential candidates Donald Trump and Ben Carson share a moment after the GOP debate in Simi Valley, Calif., on Sept. 16, 2015.

Donald Trump has boasted that he's "leading every poll and in most cases big." Not anymore. The latest IBD/TIPP Poll shows him in second place, seven points behind Ben Carson.

The nationwide survey found that 24% of Republicans back Carson, compared with 17% who say they support Trump.

Marco Rubio came in third with 11% and Carly Fiorina fourth at 9%. Jeb Bush, once considered a prohibitive favorite, ranked fifth with just 8% support, which was a point lower than those who say they are still undecided.

The IBD/TIPP Poll has a proven track record for accuracy, based on its performance in the past three presidential elections. In a comparison of the final results of various pollsters for the 2004 and 2008 elections, IBD/TIPP was the most accurate. And the New York Times concluded that IBD/TIPP was the most accurate among 23 polls over the three weeks leading up to the 2012 election.

The October poll, conducted from Sept. 26 to Oct. 1, included 377 registered voters who are Republican or registered independents who lean toward the Republican Party, with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.

Peak Trump?

Other polls show Trump's support slipping in recent weeks. The Real Clear Politics average of six national polls shows him falling from 30.5% in mid-September to 23.3% by the end of the month. That average does not include the IBD/TIPP findings.

"Things appear to be catching up with Trump on multiple fronts," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducts IBD's monthly poll. "In addition to facing increasing attacks from other candidates, Trump's boycott of Fox News may have set him back," Mayur said, noting that the poll was being conducted during Trump's self-imposed hiatus.

When asked on CNBC about his slipping poll numbers, Trump said that "if I fell behind badly, I would certainly get out."

Carson's gain comes after his controversial remarks on "Meet the Press" that he couldn't support a Muslim for president.

Rubio's third-place standing shows he has gained considerable ground since the second GOP debate. But Fiorina, who was widely seen as having won that debate, has been unable to capitalize on it with Republicans.

Hillary Clinton Leads Dems

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is the top pick of 42% of 344 registered Democrats or those leaning Democratic. Vice President Joe Biden is second at 22%, even though he has yet to announce whether he plans to run.

Bernie Sanders is backed by 18% of Democrats. Sanders' strongest support is among those 18-24, of whom 48% back the self-identified socialist, while only 14% back Clinton.

Other October poll findings:

57% of those following the Hillary Clinton email scandal say she should drop out of the presidential race if the FBI determines that she sent or received classified emails on her private email server while secretary of state. Among Democrats, 75% say she should stay in.

53% of those following the refugee crisis oppose bringing 185,000 refugees fleeing the Middle East into the U.S., and 63% say Congress should first OK any plans to admit the refugees.

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-polls/100215-773897-donald-trump-trails-ben-carson-in-ibd-tipp-poll.htm#ixzz3niM64KiI

Dos Equis

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #776 on: October 05, 2015, 10:13:39 AM »
Koch Brothers, Other 2016 Mega Donors Warm to Carly Fiorina

Image: Koch Brothers, Other 2016 Mega Donors Warm to Carly Fiorina
Sunday, 04 Oct 2015

Carly Fiorina has emerged as the Republican candidate of the moment in conservative fundraising circles, drawing the notice of the billionaire Koch brothers and other wealthy donors who could instantly remake her shoestring presidential campaign.

Fiorina's show-stealing performance in a Republican presidential debate last month, and her subsequent surge in the polls, has prompted industrialists Charles and David Koch to take a "serious look" at the former Hewlett-Packard chief executive, according to three sources close to the brothers.

She has now moved to the short list of candidates the Kochs may support with their reported $1 billion war chest, the sources said. Florida Senator Marco Rubio is among those on the coveted list, the sources said.

A spokesman for the Kochs declined to comment

Other politically powerful mega donors are also lining up.

Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens hosted a packed luncheon at a posh Dallas venue for Fiorina in late September, while venture capitalist Tom Perkins is planning a fundraising gala in California in the next few months.

"My money is on her," said Perkins, who served on HP's board during Fiorina's tenure. "I think she could be president."

As the only woman on stage at the Sept. 16 debate, Fiorina emerged as the most effective candidate in taking on front-runner Donald Trump, chastening the celebrity real estate magnate for his controversial comments about her looks.

"The emails have not stopped" since then, said seasoned California political fundraising consultant Karolyn Dorsee, who is working on behalf of several Republican presidential candidates, including Rubio and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. "Everybody wants her, nationwide, in every single state."

Even before her rapid rise in the polls - she has vaulted to second place in the key early voting state of New Hampshire - Fiorina had already garnered about $2 million in support from the likes of reclusive hedge fund baron Robert Mercer and former Univision CEO Jerrold Perenchio.

"SHE'S PRETTY VIABLE"

Fiorina's campaign now appears far less of a long-shot than it did over the summer, when she was struggling with sparse crowds, scant name recognition and a coffer of just $5 million that put her at the bottom of the money race.

Her campaign thus far has been a bare-bones operation, relying on a young, relatively low-paid, skeletal staff as opposed to the sprawling operations built by more well-endowed candidates like Bush.

Support from the Kochs would change her operation overnight.

"We think she's pretty viable," said broadcasting billionaire Stanley Hubbard, a member of the Koch brothers' network of conservative advocacy groups who donates heavily to political candidates.

The Kochs have been keeping a close eye on Fiorina ever since she announced in May, the Koch sources said. They extended an invite to her to speak at their exclusive summit of rich donors at an oceanfront luxury resort in August along with Rubio, Bush, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz.

Fiorina, the lowest polling candidate at the gathering, impressed the big money attendees with her mastery of policy detail and heavyweight stage presence. "She's good in the room," said one participant at the event, who declined to be named.

The Fiorina campaign, and the independent fund-raising Super PAC supporting her, declined comment.

The Kochs, who own America's second-largest private company, have backed Fiorina in the past, notably when she ran unsuccessfully against incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer for her California Senate seat in 2010.

At the time, the Kochs had helped mount a campaign for Proposition 23, a ballot measure designed to suspend the state law banning higher carbon emissions that was ultimately defeated. Fiorina also supported the measure. A Koch Industries PAC helped sponsor a Washington fundraiser for Fiorina at the time and gave $10,000 to her campaign.

As Fiorina's money problems fade, some high dollar donors who have already contributed are now considering doubling down. Dallas philanthropist Elloine Clark has so far written one $100,000 check to the Super PAC supporting Fiorina. She says she may give more. "I think she's unflappable," said Clark. "And she doesn't react like an adolescent."

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/koch-brothers-mega-donors/2015/10/04/id/694627/#ixzz3niMWewEM

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #777 on: October 05, 2015, 10:17:05 AM »
 :o

New Poll: Bush at Four Percent
Posted on October 2, 2015
by Keith Koffler

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush scored just 4 percent of the vote in the latest national GOP survey, a catastrophically low number that is sure to raise grave concern among the establishment donors who have invested millions in his success for the 2016 presidential race.

The poll, released Friday by the Pew Research Center, shows Bush slipping into sixth place behind Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who is at 6 percent. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Bush’s archrival for establishment backing, has twice Jeb’s support, with 8 percent. Rubio is tied with Fiorina, whose tally suggests the steam may have run out of the boomlet that accompanied her strong performance in last month’s GOP debate.


Jeb

A GOP donor from the energy sector was less than charitable in his assessment of Bush’s campaign this week.

“No one wants another Bush,” said the donor, who asked to remain anonymous. “Hell, when will they get that through their heads?”

Despite numerous hopeful stories in the mean that Donald Trump’s mediocre debate showing had at last inaugurated his decline, the billionaire real estate developer remains well ahead of the field, logging a solid 25 percent, 9 points ahead of Ben Carson’s 16 percent.

Even though he has not yet unleashed his massive advertising war chest against his rivals, Bush — whose 4 percent ties him with “don’t know” — surely did not expect to be where he is at this point. He was long presumed to be the man to beat, but his inability to show much spark or forcefulness on the campaign trail has given Republicans pause.

Meanwhile, he has failed to address the average Republican’s concern about such matters as trade and immigration, leaving the field open for Trump to seize those issues and run away with the base.

Unlike a few other candidates, Bush has so far declined to release his fundraising totals for the third quarter of the year. If those come in lower than expected, the news could further diminish his standing and cause even more donors to consider sending their money to another establishment figure like Rubio.

In the poll, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee — strong contenders in the “next to drop out” contest — each received 2 percent. Paul will reportedly reveal that he raised a meager $2.5 million, a tumultuous drop for the $7 million he raised in the second quarter.

A version of the piece first appeared on PoliZette.

http://www.whitehousedossier.com/2015/10/02/poll-bush-percent/

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #778 on: October 05, 2015, 10:37:05 AM »
:o

New Poll: Bush at Four Percent
Posted on October 2, 2015
by Keith Koffler

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush scored just 4 percent of the vote in the latest national GOP survey, a catastrophically low number that is sure to raise grave concern among the establishment donors who have invested millions in his success for the 2016 presidential race.

The poll, released Friday by the Pew Research Center, shows Bush slipping into sixth place behind Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who is at 6 percent. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Bush’s archrival for establishment backing, has twice Jeb’s support, with 8 percent. Rubio is tied with Fiorina, whose tally suggests the steam may have run out of the boomlet that accompanied her strong performance in last month’s GOP debate.


Jeb

A GOP donor from the energy sector was less than charitable in his assessment of Bush’s campaign this week.

“No one wants another Bush,” said the donor, who asked to remain anonymous. “Hell, when will they get that through their heads?”

Despite numerous hopeful stories in the mean that Donald Trump’s mediocre debate showing had at last inaugurated his decline, the billionaire real estate developer remains well ahead of the field, logging a solid 25 percent, 9 points ahead of Ben Carson’s 16 percent.

Even though he has not yet unleashed his massive advertising war chest against his rivals, Bush — whose 4 percent ties him with “don’t know” — surely did not expect to be where he is at this point. He was long presumed to be the man to beat, but his inability to show much spark or forcefulness on the campaign trail has given Republicans pause.

Meanwhile, he has failed to address the average Republican’s concern about such matters as trade and immigration, leaving the field open for Trump to seize those issues and run away with the base.

Unlike a few other candidates, Bush has so far declined to release his fundraising totals for the third quarter of the year. If those come in lower than expected, the news could further diminish his standing and cause even more donors to consider sending their money to another establishment figure like Rubio.

In the poll, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee — strong contenders in the “next to drop out” contest — each received 2 percent. Paul will reportedly reveal that he raised a meager $2.5 million, a tumultuous drop for the $7 million he raised in the second quarter.

A version of the piece first appeared on PoliZette.

http://www.whitehousedossier.com/2015/10/02/poll-bush-percent/

I just can't see how he turns it around at this point.

The more interesting thing I am watching is just how long he stays in the race if he continues to pull in these types of numbers.

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #779 on: October 05, 2015, 10:57:08 AM »
I just can't see how he turns it around at this point.

The more interesting thing I am watching is just how long he stays in the race if he continues to pull in these types of numbers.

If this were anyone else, I would agree.  Given his name recognition and cash, however, I'm not so sure he's done.  

But I sure hope he is. 

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #780 on: October 09, 2015, 09:50:49 AM »
Correct.

Ted Cruz says Donald Trump won't be the GOP nominee
By Theodore Schleifer, CNN
Fri October 9, 2015


In an interview with WABC Radio, Ted Cruz thinks his campaign will pick up most of Donald Trump's supporters
Cruz has been very careful in his remarks about Trump's campaign

Washington (CNN)Ted Cruz said Thursday that he did not think Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee, his harshest criticism yet of a candidate he has assiduously avoided even brushing with judgment.

Asked by WABC Radio's Rita Cosby whether he believed that "eventually, you could beat him, based on your principles," Cruz said he could.

"I think that's right. I think that, in time, I don't believe Donald is going to be the nominee and I think, in time, the lion's share of his supporters end up with us," Cruz said in an interview taped Thursday that will air in full on Sunday.

Cruz, a generally cautious candidate and public speaker, has made no bones about courting the supporters of Trump, who has won over many fans of the conservative right. He has repeatedly needled his opponents for hitting Trump -- wisdom he again shared in the interview Thursday -- but Cruz has treated Trump as a serious, viable candidate.

And he has long maintained that Trump's rise would benefit the Cruz campaign, saying that Trump has encouraged voters to use a certain set of criteria to evaluate candidates that is favorable to Cruz.

"And I think the reason is what I was just saying, that if you look to the records of all the Republican candidates, there's a big difference between my record and that of everyone else if you ask, who has stood up to Washington?" Cruz told Cosby. "I think his involvement has been tremendously helpful to my campaign, because it's framed the central question of this primary."

But the question has always been to what lengths Cruz would go to avoid angering Trump, who has elbowed his rivals who threw the first blow. Cruz, who has made a reputation in Washington for battling his own party, has been the sole Republican not to do that.

Yet there has always been signs that the relationship was more short-term alliance than a long-term political friendship.

Cruz invited Trump to appear at an unusual two-candidate rally against the Iran deal largely, Cruz said, because of Trump's ability to get the media to cover it. And a top Cruz adviser once suggested that supporters of Trump at a rally were there to be "part of a show."

Trump, for his part, has said he would be open to hitting the Texas freshman should he climb too closely to Trump in the polls.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/08/politics/ted-cruz-donald-trump-interview/index.html

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #781 on: October 09, 2015, 09:53:57 AM »
most repubs on getbig are scared to criticize trump.   


they lack the balls to admit - he's an immature, mean democrat running as a republican who hates brown people.

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #782 on: October 09, 2015, 12:24:20 PM »
to getbiggers like HH6, Dos equis, tony...

I gotta say, you guys do have it tough in 2015/2016.   I mean, in another year, any other year, Rubio would be the next JFK, young and vibrant.  Rand would be a bright light.  Jeb would be the romney party establishment candidate, and Christie would be the dark harse.  Safe, standard, and you know things aren't going to change all that much when one of them wins, and you know they'll keep it close with Hilary, and possibly beat her.

All trolling aside, it has gotta drive many of you repubs crazy, to see TRUMP (rude former dam, bashing other repubs, refusing to detail his positions, CARSON (talking about popeyes chicken robberies, talking nazi stuff, talking nonsense every day) and FIORINO (outright lie about that video, thin resume at HP)

It's gotta be torture seeing these three idiots are the top 3, knowing without them in the race, Rubio is polling at 35% and hilary is scared of his fresh face, or Cruz is at a dignified 28%, just collecting money and endorsements.   What a mess this 2016 is... we're almost to Holiday season, where candidates are lost in the flurry of shopping, etc.   If one of the grownups in the race doesn't make a move soon, it may be trump/carson/fiorino getting just beaten down in the heat of a national election.

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #783 on: October 12, 2015, 10:50:45 AM »
Marco Rubio's childhood in Las Vegas shaped as well as tempered his politics

Republican presidential candidate Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) talks during an interview with CNBC correspondent John Harwood at the New York Stock Exchange in New York. (Mark Lennihan / AP)
Lisa Mascaro   
 
He was known as Tony back then, a young boy so persuasive and self-assured that he helped persuade his family to ditch Catholicism for the Mormon Church, and he marched in a union picket line with his dad, a casino bartender, to demand better wages.

Marco Rubio's life might have turned out very differently had he stayed in this working-class neighborhood off the Las Vegas Strip, where service workers like his father and mother, a hotel maid, dreamed of a better life while providing the labor to power the gambling industry's economic engine.

But the Rubios returned to Miami after six short but formative years in Nevada. Rather than coming of age in the small “L” libertarianism of the West, where most Latinos skewed toward the Democratic Party, Tony began high school amid South Florida's conservative Cuban American exile community. And that's where Marco Rubio, early tea party favorite and Republican presidential hopeful, was forged.

All that Rubio left behind in Las Vegas points to a world view once considered, but ultimately rejected, a time he tried on new political and cultural ideas he later would shed.

His childhood enthusiasm for the powerful Las Vegas unions has been replaced by a pro-business economic sensibility. He abandoned the Mormon faith in favor of a mash-up of his wife's evangelical Christianity and his own Catholic roots. He has publicly criticized the gambling industry.

See the most-read stories this hour >>
As he drove his weathered Prius recently through the residential streets Rubio roamed as a kid, Mo Denis, Rubio's cousin and the former Democratic leader of the state Senate, reflected on how Rubio had changed and how his time in Nevada influenced the kind of politician he became.

“We've talked about it on occasion,” said Denis, who still lives in the Nevada neighborhood where Rubio arrived in 1979 as an 8-year-old and lived until he was 14. “His time here was part of who he is.”

Denis said Rubio's years in the diverse neighborhood of working-class white and Latino families exposed him to lifestyles and socioeconomic conditions he wouldn't have seen in the more insular and politically conservative Miami. That may have helped broaden and temper his views on some topics.

“I don't know that he's rejected it,” Denis said of Rubio's experience in Las Vegas. “He's incorporated it, added to it. … As a president, I think that would be helpful to him — that experience he had here — because he really does have that insight. Whether he chooses to [act on it], that's up to him.”

As Rubio's campaign builds momentum following a strong debate performance last month, the candidate returned to the Silver State on Thursday to highlight his time there and stump for votes. Supporters are positioning Rubio as a more compassionate, optimistic alternative to Donald Trump and others who have dominated the field.

On Saturday, Rubio tried to reconnect with Nevada's Latino voters at St. Christopher Catholic School in North Las Vegas, which he briefly attended as a child. (He begged his parents to enroll him in the Catholic school, but then quit after finding it too strict.)

Rubio likes to joke that he has more relatives in Vegas than in Miami, but he remains a relative unknown in the city.

“Most people still have no idea he spent time here as a kid,” said longtime Nevada political guru Jon Ralston. “Whether that creates any special nexus for him in Nevada remains to be seen.”

Some of his current positions risk alienating the same Nevada voters he'll need for the state's early Republican nominating caucus and, if he becomes the party's nominee, the general election.

His past criticism of gambling, in particular, appears out of step with conservative casino moguls, such as billionaire GOP donor Sheldon Adelson, and the army of unionized Strip workers who turn out working-class voters. Nearly 400,000 Las Vegas residents are employed by casinos and related tourism.

“I have a long history of opposing expansion of gambling,” Rubio said this year on the presidential campaign trail. He fought against the gambling industry's reach into Florida when he was the state's House speaker. As a U.S. senator, he told the Miami news media that casinos “bring their problems” and “are not the solution to everything.”

Such positions might come back to haunt Rubio as he tries to mobilize support in Nevada.

“It's no secret some of these candidates have taken a hard line on the industry,” said Geoffrey Freeman, chief executive of the American Gaming Assn. “It sure would take a lot of chutzpah to go to Nevada to raise money and not take a lot of time to learn about the industry — or even malign it.”

So far, however, Rubio's views do not appear to have damaged his relationship with the high-rolling executives who loom large in Republican politics. In recent months, nevertheless, he has fine-tuned his criticism of the industry.

Rubio continues to be a favorite of Adelson's. The billionaire is more interested in Rubio's positions on national security issues and support for Israel, according to those familiar with Adelson's thinking.

And Rubio is aligned with Adelson's campaign against efforts to legalize online gambling. The two are said to talk regularly as Adelson, who bankrolled Newt Gingrich's 2012 campaign, assesses the current field.

When Rubio first stepped off the plane in Las Vegas in 1979, his family was a minority among a growing Mexican American minority. Their branch of the family did not flee Fidel Castro's Cuban government; they came to the U.S. before Castro's revolution, for a better life. As Miami's crime rose and opportunity withered, they headed west.

The Rubios stayed with relatives before buying a modest two-bedroom cinder-block home in the College Park neighborhood, an older tract of houses with mid-century angles.

Rubio became interested in politics at an early age. He backed Sen. Edward M. Kennedy's 1980 campaign for president, but his Cuban grandfather instilled in him conservative values; during Ronald Reagan's presidency, young Rubio embraced the Republican Party.

Even so, he threw himself into the Culinary Union's landmark 1984 labor strike in Las Vegas. He made protest signs and joined the picket at Sam's Town, where his dad worked. The work stoppage, remembered as the longest in Las Vegas labor history, left both sides bruised.

Rubio's support for the strike was so strong he lashed out at his father — calling him a “scab” — when the man eventually crossed the picket line to go back to work, Rubio wrote in his autobiography, “American Son.”

As a senator, Rubio has come down squarely against organized labor. He voted against extending unemployment benefits as the economy showed signs of improving in 2014 and helped filibuster legislation aimed at preventing employment discrimination against gay workers.

Michelle Denis, another cousin, recalls Rubio as a boy who enjoyed acting together in skits and singing the Osmond Brothers' pop hit “Sweet and Innocent” at family parties. He was always the director in charge. She said it was hardly surprising that he changed after leaving Nevada.

“It's totally two different lives, here to Miami,” Denis said, now working as a caterer at MGM Grand Hotel and Casino. “I do believe he believes in what he's saying. He has strong beliefs.”

His faith has shifted, as well. Rubio joined the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in Las Vegas, where the church has a strong undercurrent, and tried to get his father to quit casino bartending as “sinful” because of LDS teachings against alcohol.

But after a few years, he drifted away “to be Catholic again,” he writes, and as an adult, also attends his wife's Christian church. His campaign is now courting the well-organized Mormon political community.

In his book, Rubio, now 44, called it a “charmed” childhood. He played quarterback on a Pop Warner football team for Caesar's Gladiators and swam in the family's above-ground backyard pool, which was a hand-me-down from relatives.

“Las Vegas is not often the first place that comes to mind for people looking to raise their children in a wholesome environment,” he wrote. “Yet in many respects, it would prove to be the family-friendly community my parents hoped it would be.”

At C.C. Ronnow Elementary School, Tony — the family still calls Rubio by his middle name — stood out as an energetic, if overly chatty youngster.

“He could certainly talk — he would talk so much he'd get in trouble,” said Bryan Thiriot, a childhood friend who now lives in Utah. Almost once a week, their fourth-grade teacher would punish the talkative Rubio by seating him beside her and requiring that he copy definitions from the dictionary. “That's why he has such a deep vocabulary,” Thiriot said.

In Sin City, it remains to be seen whether candidate Marco Rubio will be welcomed as a native son. Despite the election of Republican Brian Sandoval as Nevada's first Latino governor, the Latino electorate is overwhelmingly Democratic.

Back in the old neighborhood, Yesenia Castaneda, a mother of three, is the new owner of the former Rubio home, and she is exactly the kind of voter Rubio is hoping to sway. A Mexican immigrant, she's a stay-at-home mom and is open to the Republican Party.

But she said she isn't sure who will get her vote. She also likes Hillary Rodham Clinton.

http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/la-na-politics-marco-rubio-vegas-years-20151008-story.html

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #784 on: October 12, 2015, 05:04:29 PM »
Zogby: Trump Will 'Fizzle Out Shortly'

Image: Zogby: Trump Will 'Fizzle Out Shortly'   (Photo by Isaac Brekken/Getty Images) 
By Bill Hoffmann
Monday, 12 Oct 2015

Veteran pollster John Zogby is continuing to stick to his longstanding prediction that Republican front-runner Donald Trump's run for president will not last.

"I'm in a margin-of-error business, so plus or minus a couple of weeks … I do think he'll fizzle out, I really do," Zogby, senior analyst at Zogby Analytics, tells "Newsmax Prime" with J.D. Hayworth on Newsmax TV.

"He's starting to, he's peaked a little bit and I think his numbers are coming down … he'll fizzle out shortly."

Zogby said he is not surprised that Trump supporters say if the billionaire developer ends up dropping out, they'll embrace Dr. Ben Carson, the retired pediatric neurosurgeon who is in second place.

 "This is the period of the outsider and [there are] two completely different personas here, but Ben Carson at least for now is providing an alternative persona and a lot of red meat for conservatives in the race," he said.

"At this point in time, it doesn't surprise me at all that the two are leading the pack and that Carson is still seen as viable."

Craig Shirley, president of Shirley & Banister Public Affairs, who also appeared on "Newsmax Prime," noted President Barack Obama's criticism of Trump on CBS News' "60 Minutes."

"Donald Trump represents probably right now the greatest indictment against President Obama's administration and his legacy right now. One thing we know about Donald Trump is that he makes great deals," Shirley said.

 "Where on the other hand, Obama doesn't make great deals and that is a historical fact, from the stimulus to Obamacare to the deal with Iran. Everything that he's engaged in or brokered is seen as a bad deal.

 "So in a way, there's an inverse proportion ratio between the demise of Barack Obama, the ending of his presidency, and the rise of Donald Trump. I suspect it will continue to grow."

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsmax-Tv/donald-trump-polling-republicans-john-zogby/2015/10/12/id/695874/#ixzz3oOxM4t7u

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #785 on: October 12, 2015, 07:38:41 PM »
Zogby: Trump Will 'Fizzle Out Shortly'
Monday, 12 Oct 2015

Zogby said this exact shit one month ago:
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsmax-Tv/john-zogby-ken-blackwell-campaign/2015/09/14/id/691529/
Sept 14, 2015.


And here's August 6th, when Zogby predicted Jeb Bush was about to overtake trump...
http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnzogby/2015/08/06/trump-gets-attention-but-bush-toughest-opponent-for-democrats-bliss-institutezogby-analytics-poll-2/

BUT BUT BUT wait - here's zogby i JULY saying Trump can never be president:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnzogby/2015/07/22/donald-trump-continues-to-outdo-himself-but-that-still-wont-get-him-the-white-house/

So really, at what point do we start saying Zogby is full of shit?


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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #786 on: October 13, 2015, 09:43:02 AM »
Sheldon Adelson warms to Marco Rubio
An endorsement could come as early as the end of this month, sources close to the casino magnate say.
By ALEX ISENSTADT
10/12/15


Sheldon Adelson, one of the Republican Party's most sought-after contributors, is leaning increasingly toward supporting Marco Rubio — and the Florida senator is racing to win the backing of other uncommitted megadonors who have the potential to direct tens of millions of dollars his way and alter the contours of the Republican primary fight.

Last week, during a campaign swing through Las Vegas, Rubio held a meeting in Adelson's offices at the Venetian Las Vegas, one of a number of five-star luxury casinos the billionaire mogul owns around the world. Adelson, seated at the head of his conference table, heaped praise on Rubio’s performance while he discussed the dynamics of the 2016 race. Those briefed on the meeting described it as short but said it had an air of importance, with the two joined by Rubio’s campaign manager, Terry Sullivan, and a pair of senior Adelson advisers, Rob Goldstein and Patrick Dumont.

Those close to Adelson — who spent more than $100 million on Republican candidates and causes during the 2012 campaign and has been aggressively courted by most would-be Republican nominees — stressed that the 82-year-old gambling magnate had made no final decision on whom he’d support but said that momentum had strongly shifted to the Florida senator. A formal endorsement, they said, could come as soon as the end of the month — and with it, the potential for a multimillion dollar contribution. With a net worth of $25.7 billion, according to Forbes, Adelson can afford to spend freely.

The news of Adelson's growing affinity for Rubio comes as the Florida senator has seen his poll numbers climb in recent weeks — support his campaign is hoping to translate into cash. “I think it’s obvious that Marco is gaining some strength,” said Anthony Gioia, a retired ambassador and top Rubio fundraiser. “The more people hear him, the more strength he seems to be getting.”

Rubio and Adelson have grown increasingly close, with the senator phoning the billionaire several times a month to provide in-depth updates on the state of his campaign. The two men also have detailed policy discussions, especially about international affairs and Israel — the latter a cause near and dear to the mogul. Adelson has long looked favorably on Rubio, a fellow son of immigrants. Two people familiar with his thinking said he has become increasingly confident in the senator’s political skills and believes he is the kind of fresh face the Republican Party needs in 2016. (An Adelson spokesman declined to comment.)

Adelson is just one of several GOP megadonors visited in recent days and weeks by Rubio, whose months-long courtship of deep-pocketed benefactors is taking on a new intensity.

Last week, Rubio also held a lengthy private meeting in New York City with Paul Singer, a hedge fund manager who is among the most prolific Republican donors in the country but who has yet to pick a favorite. During a gathering of Rubio donors in Las Vegas last week, attendees were abuzz about the possibility of bringing aboard Singer. (A Singer side said he “hasn’t made a decision on the presidential election yet.”)

Charles Schwab, a powerful investor who has also remained on the sidelines, has privately expressed interest in Rubio's candidacy. Those close to the senator say he’s been wooing the 78-year-old Schwab, whose net worth is an estimated $6.4 billion, for weeks. At the Las Vegas retreat, attendees circulated a list of top donor targets, with Schwab high up on the list. (Schwab's spokespeople did not respond to requests for comment.)

In recent days, Rubio has also been courting the Ricketts family, which own the Chicago Cubs and gave more than $5 million to a super PAC supporting Scott Walker before the Wisconsin governor suspended his campaign.

A Rubio spokesman, Alex Conant, declined to comment on his talks with prospective donors.

But winning over such coveted backers would provide a major boost to Rubio's campaign — and deliver a blow to Jeb Bush, who has been counting on his considerable financial advantage to carry him in the primary contest. (At the close of the second fundraising quarter, Bush and the outside groups supporting his candidacy reported raising over $100 million, more than twice as much as Rubio.) It would also bolster the Florida senator after a lackluster third quarter in which his campaign raised just $6 million, though aides say he has a substantial amount of cash on hand.

For presidential contenders, Adelson and Singer are especially prized because they lay claim to broad networks of political donors who will follow their lead. Last week, Singer convened a group of powerful contributors in New York City for a two-day gathering to discuss the political landscape. Adelson, meanwhile, sits on the board of the Republican Jewish Coalition and each spring hosts a gathering for the group at his posh Venetian hotel.

But both men have remained on the sidelines this year, awaiting greater clarity in a crowded and rambunctious primary, like many other top GOP donors. Rather than committing to Bush — long expected to be the Republican front-runner — they are taking stock of their power and keeping one another apprised of their considerations. Representatives for a number of wealthy Republican benefactors — including Adelson, Charles and David Koch, and the Ricketts family — recently gathered in New York City to discuss how the race is shaping up.

The Kochs are not expected to endorse a single candidate but rather to wait out the primary. Yet as Rubio supporters gathered in Las Vegas last week, many were surprised to see a top Koch official, Phillip Ellender, in attendance.

Mellencamp asked the McCain campaign to stop playing his songs “Our Country” and “Pink Houses,” among others, at their campaign rallies. "If you're such a true conservative, why are you playing songs that have a very populist pro-labor message written by a guy who would find no argument if you characterized him as left of center?” Mellencamp’s publicist said.

In an email, Ellender, who heads up the Kochs' government and public relations division, said his attendance at the event, and support for Rubio, is independent of “the company I am privileged to work for.”

Not all the powerful Republican donors Rubio is wooing, however, are sold on him.

Next week, he will meet with Doug Deason, the son of billionaire megadonor Darwin Deason. Three weeks ago, the younger Deason, who had supported Rick Perry before he dropped out last month, sat down with Rubio in Texas. While Rubio sipped a ginger ale, the donor brought up the senator’s recent statement in support of federal sugar subsidies — a position Deason said he disagreed with.

In an interview, Deason recalled getting an unsatisfactory answer from Rubio and said he hoped to get a better response the next time they met. In the meantime, he said, he is scheduling meetings with several other candidates, including Bush and Ben Carson.

“I like him a lot,” Deason said of Rubio. “But we’re on the fence currently.”

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/marco-rubio-sheldon-adelson-donors-2016-214680#ixzz3oT0nPmoG

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #787 on: October 14, 2015, 12:58:40 PM »
Fiorina's Fundraising Quadruples During Summer

Image: Fiorina's Fundraising Quadruples During Summer   (Michael Holahan/The Aiken Standard via AP) 
By Cathy Burke   
Tuesday, 13 Oct 2015 

Fueled by two strong debate performances, GOP presidential contender Carly Fiorina quadrupled her fundraising over the summer.

Figures released by her campaign boast:

The $6.8 million collected between July 1 and September 30 puts the former Hewlett Packard CEO in third place among rivals who've released their fundraising totals so far.

The campaign team of retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson says it raised a whopping $20 million, while the campaign of Texas Sen. Ted Cruz reports it raised $12.2 million in the same period, The Hill reports.

Fiorina ended September with $5.5 million in cash reserves, her spokeswoman's tweet notes.

In the quarter ending in September, Fiorina also out-raised Florida's Sen. Marco Rubio, who saw his fundraising drop over the summer, USA Today reports, collecting about $6 million during the July-to-September quarter, and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, who raised $2.5 million.

Several other candidates in the GOP race, including former Florida governor Jeb Bush, have not released their fundraising totals. Candidates have until Thursday to do so.

According to USA Today, Fiorina has spent roughly a third of the money she's' raised — a far slower rate of spending than other Republicans, including Rubio and Paul, who's gone through nearly $2 for every $1 he took in.

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/carly-fiorina-fundraising-debates-president/2015/10/13/id/696062/#ixzz3oZekWhn4

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #788 on: October 15, 2015, 03:08:49 PM »
An honest man in politics concerned about the appearance of impropriety.  Very uncharacteristic of a politician. 

Ben Carson Delays Campaign Two More Weeks For Book Tour

Image: Ben Carson Delays Campaign Two More Weeks For Book Tour  (Wire Services)   
By Todd Beamon 
Wednesday, 14 Oct 2015
 
Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson is suspending his campaign for two more weeks to promote his new book, "A More Perfect Union," and attend several fund-raising events.

"It’s a question of co-mingling from the corporate standpoint to the Federal Election Commission standpoint, so it’s just better to avoid any bad appearance," Carson spokesman Doug Watts told ABC News on Wednesday.

The goal is to separate campaign events from the book tour. As such, the retired pediatric neurosurgeon will not appear at any "campaign events" for the next three weeks, Watts said.

"Our numbers went up in the Fox poll in the last seven days and our numbers went up in the CBS poll in the last four days," Watts told ABC. "They did the same thing in Virginia, and we are the only Republican beating Hillary Clinton in Virginia, so right now I don’t see any reason to be worried."

The candidate is participating in fund-raisers this week — and the book tour will take him to Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa next week.

Carson's next public campaign appearance will be on Oct. 28, the day of the next Republican debate. The event will be moderated by CNBC and held at the University of Colorado-Boulder.

His last appearance on the trail was on Oct. 2, ABC reports.

 "He’s been on TV," Watts said. "I think, Wednesday through Friday, I got sick of looking at him on TV.

 "So, it’s pretty hard to suggest that he’s not out and about," he added. "Whether you make a distinction of it as a campaign thing or not.

 "Most people at home just see Ben Carson out there talking about something that is or isn't important to them."

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/ben-carson-suspends-campaign-two/2015/10/14/id/696289/#ixzz3og1bymVa

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #789 on: October 15, 2015, 03:34:23 PM »
he's suspending his campaign to settle down a week which was an avalanche of "i got robbed at popeyes" to "i'd stop a school shooting" to "muslims shuldn't be president" and other statements.

Maybe he's taking an etiquette class.  What an ass.  Complete disgust at the top 3 of the GOP race. 

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #790 on: October 15, 2015, 03:46:13 PM »
Money Men: Carson, Bush, Cruz lead latest round in GOP cash race
By  Kelley Beaucar Vlahos
Published October 15, 2015
FoxNews.com

Ben Carson, Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz appear to be leading the money race in the Republican presidential primary, according to third-quarter numbers released by the campaigns ahead of Thursday's filing deadline.

Carson far out-raised his GOP rivals in the last quarter, bringing in more than $20 million, thanks to a surge of support in the polls and accompanying rush of small-dollar donations.

While the retired neurosurgeon's numbers previously had been reported, Bush only released his fundraising details Thursday afternoon. Though there was speculation as to whether the one-time front-runner would be able to sustain the fundraising pace as his poll numbers have slipped, the former Florida governor's campaign says he raised nearly $13.4 million in the latest period, outpacing his second-quarter haul.

Cruz, a Texas senator, followed with $12.2 million raised.

Billionaire Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner, has not yet released his campaign finance numbers, but is not actively fundraising and is instead spending his own cash on the campaign trail.

The totals suggest Bush and Cruz, among others, have the financial backing to sustain an aggressive campaign, for now, even as Trump and Carson lead the polls. Bush reported having $10.3 million in the bank at the end of September, while Cruz reported $13.5 million on hand. While Florida Sen. Marco Rubio did not raise as much in the third quarter, he also reported a sizable, $11 million war chest.

But Carson's numbers are especially impressive in that he more than doubled the $8 million he made in the last quarter, raising $12 million in the month of September alone.

"He is converting the populist appeal of his message into support and campaign dollars, which will allow him to continue to wage a viable campaign -- but whether this allows him to broaden his base of support remains to be seen, especially given the competition he faces from other non-traditional and conservative candidates," said Tony Corrado, professor of government and a campaign finance observer at Colby College in Maine.

Carson had $11.5 million cash on hand in the third quarter, cementing his status as a top-tier GOP candidate, second only to Trump in recent surveys.

The Federal Election Commission filing deadline is Thursday, though many of the campaigns decided to report their contributions to the press beforehand. The third quarter covers the period of June 30 through Sept. 30.

Meanwhile, Trump told Fox News on Tuesday that he has spent "very little" on his campaign so far. "I've spent zero on advertising. Every [network] they have covered me a lot. It's almost like if I put ads on top of the program it would be too much, it would be too much Trump. I've spent the least money and have the best poll numbers."

The Democrats brought in a far greater take than the Republican candidates, in part because there are fewer of them vying for the party's donor base. According to front-runner Hillary Clinton's campaign, she raised $28 million during the third quarter and had $32 million on hand. Her main opponent, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, raised $26 million and had $25 million in cash on hand.

Carson apparently is spending the money at a quick pace, as he tries to sustain his momentum. According to his campaign, he spent $14 million from July to September.

"We will be able to fully fund our most expansive get-out-the-vote program, and our most expansive advertising program and our most expansive social media program in Iowa through the caucuses," Doug Watts, his spokesman, told the Des Moines Register Thursday.

Other candidates are pulling in substantial figures as well.

Republican Carly Fiorina has benefited from a boost after solid performances in the first two primary debates. According to her campaign, she raised $6.8 million in the third quarter and had $5.8 million on hand, compared with the $1.7 million she took in during the second quarter from April to June. She joined the race officially in May.

Rubio, according to his campaign, raised $6 million in the third quarter -- compared with $8 million in the second quarter -- and has about $11 million on hand. Political observers say he is competing for the same establishment donors as Bush, but could benefit from a shot in the arm by casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, who recent reports indicate has been warming to the Florida senator. Adelson spent a total of $92 million on political candidates and causes in 2012.

The figures being reported by the campaigns this month pertain to campaign accounts, and not the super PACs backing them, which are pouring in millions more on top of what the campaigns are spending.

Analysts say the ability to raise money through a large donor base, particularly from small donors, signals the long-term health of a campaign over all -- perhaps with the exception of self-funder Trump.

In this arena, Carson appears to be ahead too, receiving more than 600,000 donations from more than 350,000 donors, his campaign reported to the press at the end of September. Meanwhile, Cruz's campaign said he had a total of 120,000 donors through the third quarter. Still, none of this compares to Sanders, who says he has had 1 million donors since the start of his campaign in late May. Clinton's people say 93 percent of her donations were $100 or less.

Other Republican candidates are pulling in less money.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich raised $4.4 million, spent $1.71, million and finished the quarter with $2.66 million on hand, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie raised $4 million in the last quarter, spent nearly $3 million, and has about $1.4 million on hand.

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul raised $2.5 million, a decline from the $6.9 million raised in the second quarter, and had some $2 million in cash on hand.

The Paul campaign sent out a memo Thursday defending its status in the race, saying some "are pushing a false narrative that Senator Rand Paul (SRP) is on the ropes."

The campaign maintained that Paul "has the best organization in America."

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal reported raising $1.16 million in the third quarter. Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore reported raising $62,000. Other Republican candidates have not yet announced their fundraising totals.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/10/15/money-men-carson-bush-cruz-lead-latest-round-in-gop-cash-race/?intcmp=hpbt1

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #791 on: October 19, 2015, 06:31:11 PM »
Carson closing in on Trump in Florida
By Gabby Morrongiello (@gabriellahope_)
10/19/15

Donald Trump continues to lead the Republican presidential field in Florida, but is losing his edge in the key battleground state.

The GOP front-runner is the first choice candidate for 21.7 percent of Republican voters in Florida, but only 6 percent of voters named him their second choice in a University of North Florida poll released Monday.

Meanwhile, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has jumped to 19.3 percent support, putting him well within the margin of error against Trump. A poll commissioned last month by One America News Network showed Carson trailing Trump in the Sunshine State by 12 percentage points.

In third and fourth place behind the two outsider candidates are Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (15 percent) and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (9 percent), respectively. With 81 percent of Florida Republicans holding a positive view of Rubio, the state's junior senator earns the highest favorability rating of any GOP candidate in the UNF poll.
 
Bush has a net-positive favorability rating of 64.9–28.8 percent while voters are more divided when it comes to their feelings toward Trump, who is viewed favorably by 52.5 percent of Republican voters in the state and unfavorably by 39.9 percent. Respondents were not asked to give an opinion on Carson.

The survey of approximately 650 adults likely to vote in Florida's Republican primary was conducted Oct. 8-13. Results contain a margin of error of 3.87 percent.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2574417/?utm_content=buffer6738c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #792 on: October 20, 2015, 09:31:23 AM »
Can Trump Be Stopped?
Pat Buchanan

Three months ago, this writer sent out a column entitled, "Could Trump Win?" meaning the Republican nomination.

Today even the Trump deniers concede the possibility.

And the emerging question has become: "Can Trump be stopped? And if so, where, and by whom?"

Consider the catbird seat in which The Donald sits.

An average of national polls puts him around 30 percent, trailed by Dr. Ben Carson with about 20 percent. No other GOP candidate gets double digits.

Trump is leading Carson in Iowa, running first in New Hampshire, crushing the field in Nevada and South Carolina. These are the first four contests. In Florida, Trump's support exceeds that of ex-Governor Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio combined.

If these polls don't turn around, big time, Trump is the nominee.

And with Thanksgiving a month off, then the Christmas season, New Year's, college football playoffs and NFL playoffs, the interest of the nation will drift away, again and again, from politics.

Voting begins Feb. 1 in Iowa. Super Bowl Sunday is Feb. 7. And the New Hampshire primary will likely be on Tuesday, Feb. 9.

We are only three months out, and Trump still holds the high cards.

After months of speeches and TV appearances, he is a far more disciplined campaigner and communicator. In a year when a huge slice of the nation is disgusted with political correctness, wants to dethrone the establishment, wipe the slate clean and begin anew with someone fresh, Trump is in the pole position.

His issues — secure the border, send illegal immigrants back, renegotiate rotten trade deals that shipped our jobs abroad — are more in tune with the national mood than pro-amnesty, Obamatrade or NAFTA.

Wall Street Journal conservatism is in a bear market.

Trump says he will talk to Vladimir Putin, enforce the nuclear deal with Iran, not tear it up on Inauguration Day, and keep U.S. troops out of Syria. And South Korea should pay more of the freight and provide more of the troops for its own defense.

A nationalist, and a reluctant interventionist, if U.S. interests are not imperiled, Trump offers a dramatic contrast to the neocons and Hillary Clinton, the probable Democratic nominee. She not only voted for the Iraq war Trump opposed, but she helped launch the Libyan war.

The lights are burning late tonight in the suites of the establishment tonight. For not since Sen. Barry Goldwater won the California primary in 1964 have their prospects appeared so grim.

Absent some killer gaffe or explosive revelation, he will have to be stopped in Iowa or New Hampshire. A rival will have to emerge by then, strong enough and resourced enough to beat him by March.

The first hurdle for the establishment in taking down Trump is Carson. In every national poll, he is second. He's sitting on the votes the establishment candidate will need to overtake Trump.

Iowa is the ideal terrain for a religious-social conservative to upset Trump, as Mike Huckabee showed in 2008 and Rick Santorum in 2012.

But Carson has preempted part of the Evangelical and social conservative vote. Moreover, Sen. Ted Cruz, an anti-establishment man, is working Iowa and has the forensic abilities to rally social conservatives.

Should Trump fall, and his estate go to probate, Cruz's claim would seem superior to that of any establishment favorite.

Indeed, for an establishment-backed candidate — a Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal — to win Iowa, he must break out of the single-digit pack soon, fend off Cruz, strip Carson of part of his following, then overtake Trump. A tall order.

Yet, the battle to consolidate establishment support has begun. And despite his name, family associations, size of his Super PAC, Jeb has lost ground to Marco Rubio. Look to Marco to emerge as the establishment's last best hope to take down Trump.

But if Trump wins in Iowa, he wins in New Hampshire.

The Iowa Caucuses then, the first contest, may well be decisive. If not stopped there, Trump may be unstoppable. Yet, as it is a caucus state where voters stick around for hours before voting, organization, intensity and endless labor can pay off big against a front-runner.

In Iowa, for example, Ronald Reagan was defeated by George H. W. Bush in 1980. Vice President Bush was defeated by Bob Dole and Pat Robertson in 1988. Reagan and Bush I needed and managed comeback victories in New Hampshire. One cannot lose Iowa and New Hampshire.

Thus, today's task for the Republican establishment.

Between now and March, they must settle on a candidate, hope his rivals get out of the race, defeat Trump in one of the first two contests, or effect his defeat by someone like Carson, then pray Trump will collapse like a house of cards.

The improbabilities of accomplishing this grow by the week, and will soon start looking, increasingly, like an impossibility — absent the kind of celestial intervention that marked the career of the late Calvin Coolidge.

http://www.creators.com/conservative/pat-buchanan.html

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #793 on: October 20, 2015, 12:54:40 PM »
according to getbiggers, trump will withdraw from the race by August 2015.

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #794 on: October 20, 2015, 07:06:31 PM »
If Trump hasn't folded yet he probably isn't going to. Just read the comments on any of his videos posted on YouTube or various other conservative websites. People are still extremely passionate about this guy and we are just a few short months away from Iowa.

I want to say Trump has the best mic skills since Reagan but truth be told Trump is probably even better than he was. Say what you will about his politics but the man is just magic in front of a crowd or handling the press.

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #795 on: October 20, 2015, 07:33:40 PM »
If Trump hasn't folded yet he probably isn't going to. Just read the comments on any of his videos posted on YouTube or various other conservative websites. People are still extremely passionate about this guy and we are just a few short months away from Iowa.

I want to say Trump has the best mic skills since Reagan but truth be told Trump is probably even better than he was. Say what you will about his politics but the man is just magic in front of a crowd or handling the press.

correct - republicans either dont know or dont care about his liberal policies.

they're just in love with his star power and his blind "USA!" fervor.  what's the quote about "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag"

Trump is going to give us a very liberal america.

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #796 on: October 22, 2015, 11:11:19 AM »
If Trump hasn't folded yet he probably isn't going to. Just read the comments on any of his videos posted on YouTube or various other conservative websites. People are still extremely passionate about this guy and we are just a few short months away from Iowa.

I want to say Trump has the best mic skills since Reagan but truth be told Trump is probably even better than he was. Say what you will about his politics but the man is just magic in front of a crowd or handling the press.

I don't think it's legitimate.  I really don't see him winning this thing.  He's incredibly fragile (cannot take criticism, etc.).  The moment his poll numbers take a dive and he loses a primary or two he's probably going to quit. 

He may sound good at times, but when you actually look (or read) what he says, it's contradictory, empty, and/or offensive.

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #797 on: October 22, 2015, 11:14:05 AM »
I think the most significant part of this is the number of voters who say the will not vote for Trump. 

Quinnipiac: Carson Leads Trump for First Time in Iowa

Image: Quinnipiac: Carson Leads Trump for First Time in Iowa
By Sandy Fitzgerald     
Thursday, 22 Oct 2015

A new Quinnipiac poll  released Thursday puts Ben Carson ahead of Donald Trump for the first time in Iowa, showing the retired neurosurgeon ahead by 28-20 percent among likely Iowa GOP Caucus participants.

The numbers are:
•Carson, 28 percent;
•Trump, 20 percent;
•Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, 13 percent;
•Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, 10 percent;
•Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, 6 percent;
•Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 5 percent;
•Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, 3 percent;
•Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 2 percent;
•Former Pennsylvania Gov. Rick Santorum, 1 percent;
•Former Virginia Sen. Jim Gilmore and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, below 1 percent.

Just last month, Carson was behind Trump by 27-21 percent in Quinnipiac's Iowa poll. Carson's numbers were up because of female voters, the poll showed, drawing 33 percent among women compared to 13 percent for Trump. Men were divided with 25 percent for Carson and 24 percent for Trump.

Trump, though, topped the poll's "no way" list, of voters who say they would not vote for him, while Carson got the lowest number of people who said they would not pick him:

•Trump: 30 percent;
•Bush, 21 percent;
•Christie, 14 percent;
•Graham, 15 percent;
•Pataki, Paul, and Santorum, 10 percent;
•Kasich and Huckabee, 9 percent;
•Fiorina and Gilmore, 8 percent;
•Cruz, 7 percent;
•Rubio, 5 percent;
•Carson, 4 percent.

Iowa voters also found Carson most trustworthy, by 89 percent, and 84 percent said he shares their values.

"It's Ben Carson's turn in the spotlight," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

"As they've been pondering for six months, many in the political world still are trying to understand Carson's appeal and how someone who seems to be operating outside the traditional news media/political environment is doing so well among the most conservative GOP voters," he continued. "Today's results show his appeal is especially strong among the state's sizeable white, evangelical Christian community, among whom Carson is receiving 36 percent, twice Trump's 17 percent," Brown added.

 "Those who know Carson seem to like him. He has an almost unheard of 84 - 10 percent favorability rating among likely Republican Caucus-goers, compared to Trump's 53 - 43 percent rating."

 On other issues:
•Trump tops Carson 41 - 12 percent on the economy;
•Trump over Carson 32 - 13 percent on taxes;
•Trump tops Carson 37 - 9 percent on illegal immigration;
•Rubio and Trump are close at 18 - 17 percent, respectively, on foreign policy, with Carson at 9 percent.

The poll was conducted from Oct. 14-20 of 574 Iowa Republican Caucus participants, and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/carson-leads-trump-iowa/2015/10/22/id/697476/#ixzz3pJzZl4lA

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #798 on: October 22, 2015, 11:18:05 AM »
dos equis,

Carson may win iowa... usually it's a very religious person that takes iowa.

trump IS ready for some primary losses.  he has assembled traditional teams and is going for 50 states.  He's acknowledged he'll lose some states.  Even if he loses Iowa, if he wins NH (where he has a monster lead), he can just let his $ take over and outspend everyone, everywhere else.

unless every repub pulls out and they all throw their support behind the inept Carson, trump can just pull a romney, outspend everyone and outlast them, another RINO gets the nomination and loses badly as the base doesn't bother voting for him.

familiar.

Dos Equis

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Re: 16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates
« Reply #799 on: October 22, 2015, 06:59:59 PM »
Bloomberg Poll: Bush Gets No NH Bounce After Ad Blitz

Image: Bloomberg Poll: Bush Gets No NH Bounce After Ad Blitz
Wednesday, 21 Oct 2015

A month of extensive New Hampshire advertising on Jeb Bush's behalf has failed to boost his support and likely Republican primary voters there view him as inferior to frontrunner Donald Trump on most key attributes.

A new Bloomberg Politics/Saint Anselm New Hampshire Poll also shows Bush's favorability rating among the state's Republican primary voters has dropped to its lowest level—57 percent—since the survey was first taken almost a year ago.

In the horse race, the former Florida governor has seen his overall support drop to 10 percent, from 11 percent in May. That puts him in third place, behind Trump at 24 percent and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 17 percent, despite an advertising push by the pro-Bush Right to Rise super political action committee that has dominated the state's television screens for the past four weeks.

“With such a heavy spend, the Bush campaign was undoubtedly hoping for a bounce,” said Doug Usher of Washington-based Purple Strategies, which conducted the poll Oct. 15-18. “But their candidate is closer to Rubio, Fiorina and Kasich than to the top tier, and his favorables are moving in the wrong direction.”

There's virtually no good news in the poll for Bush, who early on in the race was thought to be a better fit among New Hampshire's more moderate voters than in more conservative- leaning, early states like Iowa and South Carolina. Besides a declining favorability rating, the poll shows his positions on immigration and national educational standards are troubling to roughly half of likely primary voters,  he lags on questions of empathy and authenticity and he's the second-choice pick of just 6 percent.

Bush isn't alone among experienced politicians trying to gain traction in New Hampshire. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida is backed by 8 percent, while former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and Ohio Governor John Kasich are both at 7 percent. Kasich has also invested heavily in New Hampshire, making roughly a dozen trips to the state since declaring his candidacy in July. In the past month, the super-PAC backing him, New Day for America, has run 144 spots in the state's television markets, according to data compiled by Kantar Media's CMAG.

It's worth noting that the last two Republican nominees, Senator John McCain of Arizona and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, were also struggling to break through at this point in 2007 and 2011. “Bush still has time, but it’s running short,” Usher said.

The poll, which included 400 likely Republican primary voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, shows roughly two-thirds of the electorate could be persuaded to support someone other than their first choice. Trump's supporters are more locked in than his nearest competitor's, with 51 percent of the billionaire's backers saying their mind is made up, compared to 30 percent for Carson's.

Bush does better among non-conservatives, where he draws 16 percent support, compared to just 6 percent among conservatives. Trump does better with conservatives than non-conservatives, 29 percent compared to 18 percent. Carson draws roughly equal backing from both groups.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who has heavily invested his campaign time in New Hampshire, is backed by 5 percent of likely primary voters in the poll. All of the other candidates were below 5 percent, with the state's first-in-the- nation primary less than four months away.

When first and second choices are combined, the two leaders in New Hampshire are nearly tied, at 33 percent for Trump and 32 percent for Carson. Rubio is third, at 19 percent, followed by Fiorina at 17 percent. At 16 percent, Bush trails those four.

The poll also tested existing and potential lines of attack against several of the top candidates, with mixed results.

Republican primary voters are nearly evenly divided on whether they're bothered by the notion that Trump "repeatedly insults other Republican candidates."

Strong majorities aren't concerned about some of Carson's recent controversial statements, including 68 percent who say they're not bothered by his declaration that being Muslim is disqualifying to become president. An even larger group, 78 percent, weren't troubled that he said Adolph Hitler's mass murder of Jews might not have been as successful if the people had been armed.

Bush's advocacy for a "path to legal residence for immigrants who are in this country illegally" makes 53 percent of those in the survey less supportive of him, while 49 percent say that about his backing of Common Core national education standards. Nearly three-quarters say they aren't bothered that he's the son and brother of two former presidents.

When told that Cruz has "repeatedly led the charge for government shutdowns for his own political advantage," 52 percent of Republican primary voters say they're less supportive of him, while 41 percent say it doesn't concern them.

After being told that Fiorina was "fired as CEO at Hewlett- Packard with a $21 million severance package after the company lost stock value," 59 percent said they aren't bothered, while 37 percent said it would make them less supportive of her.

Rubio's youthfulness isn't much of a concern, with 87 percent saying they're not bothered that the 44-year-old would be the third-youngest president if elected.

One ray of sunshine for Bush in the poll: 22 percent of New Hampshire Republican primary voters rate him as most ready to be president. That's the highest score for anyone other than Trump, who also recorded 22 percent, when responses were limited to Trump, Carson, Rubio, Fiorina, Bush, Christie, Cruz and Kasich. After Bush and Trump, the numbers fall off, with just 10 percent saying that for Carson and 8 percent for Rubio.

"He is intelligent and understands the issues and is less political than many of the other candidates," said Bush supporter Hamilton Stewart, 64, an engineering consultant from Hollis, New Hampshire.

Trump beats Bush, 31 percent to 13 percent, on a question about who in the field would be best able to handle Russian President Vladimir Putin. None of the other candidates in the smaller pool tested even make it into double-digits on that question.

On authenticity, Trump also scores the highest. The billionaire and real estate mogul is picked by 41 percent, followed by Carson at 18 percent. Republican primary voters are more evenly split between Trump and Carson on who "cares most about people like me," with 22 percent selecting Carson and 18 percent Trump.

“This country really needs a change in having somebody who is not in the political sphere,” said Francine Markham, 47, a property manager from New Ipswich, New Hampshire, leaning toward supporting Trump or Carson. “Some of these people are lifelong politicians, and one of the things I really like about [Trump] and Ben Carson is that they’re not in that game already. They really could bring a fresh outlook."

John Stafford, 59, a retired postal worker from Goffstown, New Hampshire, said he's leaning toward Carson because he likes his temperament. "He thinks about what he’s going to say before he says it, unlike other candidates," he said. "I think that he’s probably very qualified for the position as long as he has good support people."

Bush's 57 percent favorability rating among Republicans is below Carson at 74 percent, Rubio at 68 percent, Fiorina at 67 percent and Trump at 58 percent. Below Bush are Christie at 51 percent, Texas Senator Ted Cruz at 50 percent, Kasich at 48 percent, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee at 47 percent and Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky at 44 percent. Even lower, in the high 20s and low 30s, are former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.

When asked to pick the candidate that's the most conservative among Trump, Carson, Rubio, Fiorina, Bush, Christie, Cruz and Kasich, Cruz easily wins, with 26 percent of likely primary voters picking him.

In New Hampshire, ranking as the most conservative isn't as helpful as in Iowa, where the first-in-the-nation caucus participants lean more conservative. Among voters likely to vote in the Republican primary, 57 percent said they're conservative and 37 percent called themselves moderates. Only about a quarter of the likely New Hampshire electorate described themselves as "born again" or evangelical Christians.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/bush-poll-new-hampshire/2015/10/21/id/697260/#ixzz3pLtu77Dl