WMUR/CNN poll: Clinton suddenly in a tight battle with Sanders in NHVermont US senator now within 8 percentage points of frontrunner
Jun 25, 2015
DURHAM, N.H. —Less than two months ago, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton held a 21 percentage point lead over her nearest competitor in the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary campaign. Now, her edge is down to 8 percentage points over Vermont U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Clinton leads Sanders, 43 to 35 percent, in a new WMUR/CNN Granite State Poll, which was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center from June 18 to 24. The poll included 360 likely 2016 Democratic primary voters and has a margin of error of 5.2 percent, meaning Sanders is close to being in a statistical dead heat with the frontrunner.
READ: WMUR CNN Granite State Poll for the Democratic Primary
According to the poll, Vice President Joe Biden was the choice of 8 percent, while former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley drew 2 percent and former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb and former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee were each the choice of 1 percent.
To view the poll results, click here.
A WMUR Granite State Poll released in May showed Clinton leading Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren 51 to 20 percent, with Sanders at 13 percent. Warren, who has repeatedly insisted she will not run for president, was not included in the new poll. A year ago, Clinton led Sanders, 59 percent to 5 percent.
The new poll shows that Clinton still has a strong favorability rating, with 74 percent of those polled viewing her favorably and 19 percent viewing her unfavorably. She also leads Sanders in several issue-related categories.
But Clinton is also the candidate who most likely voters say is the least honest, with 28 percent putting her in that category, as compared to only 2 percent for Sanders, while 60 percent of the Democratic primary voters said they did not know.
Sanders has seen a big increase in the number of likely voters who view him favorably. It is now up to 66 percent, while only 11 percent view him unfavorably. The two candidates’ net favorability rating is the same, at 55 percent.
UNH political science professor Andrew Smith, executive director of the Survey Center, attributed Sanders’ surge primarily to the exit of Warren from the discussion.
“Hillary Clinton’s early numbers had been higher than they reasonably could have been expected to remain,” Smith said. “Historically, New Hampshire has had about 40 percent of the Democratic voters be progressive voters. That has been the case going back to 1968 with Eugene McCarthy.”
Smith said that with Warren out of contention, “Sanders was the beneficiary. If you added the Sanders and Warren numbers in May, they added up to 33 percent, and now we have 35 percent for Sanders as the progressives are coalescing around him.”
Smith said that Clinton “does have some difficulty with the trust issue, but the bigger problem is that she is not connecting with more of the anger, the motivated voters in the Democratic Party.”
By a margin of 41 to 30 percent, likely Democratic primary voters chose Sanders over Clinton as the candidate who best represents the values of their political party. And 45 percent said Sanders cares the most about “people like you,” while 24 percent named Clinton.
But Clinton was viewed by 56 percent of those polled as the strongest leader, compared to 13 percent for Sanders, while 38 percent said she has the personal characteristics and qualities that a president should have, as compared to 27 percent for Sanders.
Clinton led Sanders as better equipped to handle key challenges, including the economy, 37 percent to 28 percent; terrorism, 45 percent to 12 percent; international trade policy, 55 percent to 14 percent; and health care, 43 percent to 27 percent. But Sanders was named by 36 percent as better able to handle “big banks and corporations,” 36 percent to 31 percent.
Jobs and the economy was named as the top issue of 24 percent of those polled, while 16 percent named foreign policy/national security, 8 percent named social issues, 8 percent named health care, 8 percent named the environment/climate change, 6 percent named education, 4 percent named income equality and 3 percent named campaign finance.
There is a clear gender split in the race, with women favoring Clinton, 51 percent to 30 percent, and men favoring Sanders, 42 percent to 32 percent.
Predictably, Sanders polled the strongest in the Connecticut Valley, 45 percent to 37 percent for Clinton. He also leads Clinton in the North Country, 50 percent to 33 percent, and the Seacoast, 40 to 36 percent.
Clinton out-polled Sanders, 50 percent to 24 percent, in the Manchester area, as well as along the Massachusetts border, 47 percent to 24 percent, and in the central part of the state, 50 to 36 percent.
According to the poll, 54 percent said have not definitely decided who to support, but when asked who they would support if the election were held today, 9 percent were undecided.
http://www.wmur.com/politics/wmurcnn-poll-clinton-suddenly-in-a-tight-battle-with-sanders-in-nh/33776056
